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'Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip'.. The Investor's Thread (Read 113401 times)

sdm

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a leaky ship may have revealed a discovery here perhaps.
I've had my suspicions on this front.

Management team have been very very cautious with their wording but it's clear that they anticipate being able to announce something more positive in the future. Whether that would be enough to justify the current valuation is another matter.

I sold most of my position today to reallocate elsewhere.

Rocksteady

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a leaky ship may have revealed a discovery here perhaps.
I've had my suspicions on this front.

Management team have been very very cautious with their wording but it's clear that they anticipate being able to announce something more positive in the future. Whether that would be enough to justify the current valuation is another matter.

I sold most of my position today to reallocate elsewhere.

Same. Cornish Metals was a very good short term tip for me, good analysis Pete!

kelvin

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Meanwhile, I'd urge anybody interested in the tin investment thesis to look at Alphamin. I was saying it at around 60c, 70c, 80c, 90c and it's still the same no-brainer. Join the dots in this recent report from Edison - especially focus on the 'expansion valuation part',  and compare with the exploration drilling results reported since earlier this year from Mpana South. More holes to be reported before year end. Mpana South resource estimate to be announced early 2022 and then again one month later. 

Anyone concerned by the DRC jurisdiction could hedge by putting 50/50 in Alphamin / Metals X (Australian company, the only other major tin producer available to buy on western markets).

It's quite funny that Alphamin's mine has this year turned into one of the top 3 mines globally for most valuable ore per ton. Yep, high-grade tin, @ $40,000 per ton or a gold equivalent grade of 31 g/t, is a more valuable ore per ton than nearly all current gold, platinum, uranium, silver or rare-earths mines.

Alphamin has been somewhat frustrating recently, certainly compared to MLX in Australia, because it's fundamentals are all in place but there is definitely some resistance around the share price.
When I first invested in tin, I had pondered on a 50/50 split AFM and MLX but after a week I chose to go 100% Alphamin. MLX is obviously now way up  :yes:
I know you had mentioned you'd stick with AFM to £1.20, is that still your plan Pete?




petejh

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Yes I'm still in Alphamin and haven't sold any, it's far less frustrating for me as I'm in since 58c. It's always 2-steps forward 1-step back with any long term successful share that isn't a pump n dump. If they hit $1.20 I may top-slice, but really the future is very very bright and I won't be selling all until the resource expansion has been priced in. The drill results from Mpana South will continue to show that resource expansion is not theoretical but real - maiden resource estimate for Mpana South is being released in January.

Two risks with AFM, one of which applies to any share -  1. general market correction (universal risk) or 2. severe IS-sponsored violence in DRC. Some fighting between Ugandan military and local IS franchise recently on border between DRC and Uganda.


I also bought some MLX in October because I believe in the tin thesis. Doing well like you say (although don't get spiked if thinking of buying, they should be due a pullback from this run up) :)
« Last Edit: December 08, 2021, 02:36:45 pm by petejh »

petejh

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There's possibly a decent opportunity with Trackwise Designs (TWD) if anyone's interested in investing in supply chain to EV OEMs etc. This week the company announced a private placing to raise £6m plus an offer to existing shareholder to raise additional £1m. Price for the placement and offer shares is £0.80p.

This dilution, on top of recent weakness, is terrible for my original investment - I bought early this year in the low £2s (although I'll be able to average down somewhat by buying the offer shares @ 0.80p). But it could be a good moment for new investors to take advantage of the weakness if share price remains suppressed.

I bought because of their lightweight wiring harness technology (called IHT), which may end up being disruptive and used in various new transport due to its lighter weight relative to traditional wiring harnesses, and lower requirement for copper and other raw materials among other benefits. They have confirmed orders from Arrival; production begins from their new plant in Q2 2022; it sounds as if other EV OEMs, aerospace and medical are apparently showing interest. The raise is being used to extend their manufacturing capacity as reading between the lines they expect orders next year to exceed planned capacity. But proceeds are also to pay for unforeseen costs due to supply chain issues and higher price of materials. Could be a good moment to get in, or it could be a false dawn (usual investment case then!).
Overview below from their announcement:


                 .....................
Background to and reasons for the Fundraising

The Trackwise business has been trading since 1989 and was historically a provider of large antennae for the mobile phone industry. The business was acquired by the Company (formerly called Bremhold Limited and incorporated in 2000). The Company began the development of Improved Harness Technology (IHT), being flexible multilayer printed circuit boards of unlimited length, in 2012.

In 2014, a patent was granted to the Company in relation to the IHT manufacturing process in the United Kingdom. Patents have since been granted to the Company in the United States of America, Canada, the European Union and China with an impending grant expected from Brazil.

IHT is a disruptive process technology that enables the replacement of wire and wire harnesses in a wide variety of applications. Its key benefits, which are built on the longstanding and well-known benefits of flexible PCBs of short length, are that: it can reduce weight by up to 75 per cent. when replacing incumbent technology; improve precision, reliability and performance; and its ability to support distributed electronics or 'smart harness'. IHT is positioned to satisfy the demand for lighter, smaller and more functional connectivity across a range of applications, including in the EV, aerospace and medical industries.

The Company financed the development of the IHT process technology using the retained profits of its traditional antenna business as well as debt finance during the period up to 2018. In July 2018, the Company's shares were admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange AIM market by way of an IPO, raising £5.5 million of new money.

The funding provided at the time of IPO enabled the Company's development of the capacity and capability to manufacture IHT and since then the Company has advanced the roll-to-roll manufacture of IHT to facilitate larger scale production of IHT.

In April 2020, the Company acquired Stevenage Circuits Limited (CRN: 01059497) ("SCL"). The Company has subsequently transferred its traditional antenna business to SCL, thereby allowing it to focus its production capacity at Tewkesbury on IHT products.

In September 2020 the Company announced the culmination of 2 years' development work with an EV OEM for the supply of flexible battery harnesses made using the technology and know-how developed by the business for its IHT product. The contract was extended in June 2021 to a 4 year contract and has the potential to generate revenues of up to £54 million over that period (previously up to £38 million). The contract includes material compensation payments from the EV OEM if minimum order volumes are not placed. The Board has now received the FY 2022 production forecast from the EV OEM which is H2 biased as the EV OEM's UK and US manufacturing capacity comes online. The Q1 2022 purchase order from this EV OEM has also been received, with raw materials now on order by the Company. The EV OEM is starting to roll out its innovative modular micro factories in the UK and US, and the Directors consider that it is well funded. There remains in future the potential for volumes to be in excess of current expectations and a potential for expansion into additional new parts.

Pursuant to the contract with the EV OEM, demand from the EV OEM is expected to outstrip the capacity that the Company has in Tewkesbury and with growing interest from medical device customers, aerospace and other industrial users, this necessitated further production capacity to be enabled to meet the demand foreseen.

In April 2021, the Company completed the acquisition of a 77,000 sq. ft. freehold property in Stonehouse, Gloucestershire, for £2.8 million ("Stonehouse Site"). The property will enable the Company to significantly increase its production capacity to meet the expected demand for its IHT products. The factory refurb and fit out are underway with equipment deliveries commencing, however there have been some supply chain delays to machine deliveries in Q1 2022.

It is expected that the new Stonehouse Site will be in production at the end of Q1 2022 to meet production demand with the first production shift now recruited and being trained. It is anticipated that the Stonehouse Site will be fully operational by June 2022.

The Fundraising has been sought to fund capital expenditure and provide additional growth working capital. The Company has identified the following funding requirement pursuant to this:

· Working capital impact of raw material supply chain issues of £2.125 million; advanced payments are required to secure supply and there are longer lead times on this;

· EV customer revenues - the move of these to the year ending 31 December 2022 has cost £1.125 million of contribution compared to the Company's original forecast;

· The slow delivery of a surface mount machine experienced by the Company will mean longer use of subcontractor component assembly, with an incremental cost of £0.45 million;

· Additional increase in capacity that was not in its previous budget of £0.9 million for an additional laser direct imaging machine;

· An additional £0.35 million in solar PV panels which are predicted to save c. £0.1 million per annum; and

· An additional £1.0 million contingency working capital buffer.
 
The Company has an IHT sales pipeline with 81 customers and opportunities in total (excluding any early stage opportunities) including, but not limited to:

IHT opportunities: UK EV OEM customer - opportunities beyond the current contract described above; EV and Aerospace: potential with other battery management customers, including a pre-development phase opportunity with an automotive large EU OEM potential customer; Medical: Cathprint, and several other manufacturers and Motor Windings.

APCB opportunities: Within the existing customer base and the Company has also been qualified by a global consumer electronics OEM.
             ...............................

petejh

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In a 'best of 2021' theme, a review of investments for 2021. Good to keep track whether active investing is worth the hassle or whether it'd be better to just chuck it in passive index trackers. Or horror of horrors, pay someone else to invest for you.

Individual stocks:
Holding
Alphamin +64.5%
Artemis Resources +15.5%
Centauras Metals +36.3%
Filo Mining (inside ISA) +171%
Filo Mining (outside ISA) +244%
Graphene Manufacturing Group +17%
Greatland Gold +85%
Ilika -15%
Orosur Mining -50%
Trackwise Designs -64%
Kirkland Lake +12% plus 1.4% in dividends
Meridian Mining +112.5%
Metals X +53.5%
Polarean Imaging -39%
Talon Metals -4.7%

Sold during 2021
Adriatic Metals +26%
Argo Blockchain +17%
Bitcoin +10%
Conroy Gold Natural Resources -27%
Cornish Metals +50%
Great Bear Resources +80%
Greatland Gold +1800%
Imperial Metals -26%
KEFI -49%
Meridian Mining +100%
Ucore Rare Metals +85%


I didn't calculate my overall return at the end of 2020. Overall portfolio return for the last 2 years 2020-2022: +906%
A large chunk of the gain due to GGP, but I still would have comfortably beaten the market without it.

S&P500 2-year return +48%
FTSE100 2-year return -3%
TSX 2-year return +24.5%
Nasdaq 2-year return +87%

Here's to a profitable 2022 to all UKB investors.
 :)

petejh

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Tesla announced yesterday that they'd signed an agreement to directly source nickel to be used in their EV batteries from one of my nickel mining investments, Talon Metals (now +25%)

It's starting to look like an emerging theme for EV manufacturers to directly source their battery metals from the mines themselves, rather than go through sourcing from middlemen and the metal markets. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out over the next decade, could we reach a point where smaller EV manufacturers are priced out of sourcing battery metals and become obliged to use one of the major EV manufacturer's batteries, simply due to lack of an independent supply of ESG compliant metals? I suspect so and Tesla may be aiming to corner a large part of the market for responsibly sourced Nickel and perhaps Cobalt.
Centaurus Metals my other nickel investment, also doing very well after a large increase to their resource estimate.


Report:
Quote
Tesla has agreed to a nickel supply deal with Talon Metals, a Minnesota-based company. It is the first United States supply of nickel for the electric automaker.

Little-known Talon Metals (OTCMKTS: TLOFF) is traded in the OTC Markets Group and holds a valuation of 421.48M CAD ($332,456,465).

Some terms of the deal are not public knowledge, according to Reuters, who initially reported the agreement. However, Tesla will buy 75,000 tonnes of nickel over six years, and Talon will also provide cobalt and iron ore to the electric automaker for its batteries. Additionally, the agreement may be extended “for up to 12 months following which Tesla has a right to terminate the agreement and Talon may elect to sell to other parties.”

“This agreement is the start of an innovative partnership between Tesla and Talon for the responsible production of battery materials directly from the mine to the battery cathode. Talon is committed to meeting the highest standards of responsible production that is fully traceable and that has the lowest embedded CO2 footprint in the industry. Talon is excited to support Tesla’s mission to accelerate the transition to renewable energy,” CEO of Talon, Henri van Rooyen, said.

“The Talon team has taken an innovative approach to the discovery, development and production of battery materials, including to permanently store carbon as part of mine operations and the investigation of the novel extraction of battery materials,” Drew Baglino, Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Energy Engineering at Tesla, said. “Responsible sourcing of battery materials has long been a focus for Tesla, and this project has the promise to accelerate the production of sustainable energy products in North America.”

In July 2020, Tesla CEO Elon Musk called upon mining companies to supply more nickel. “Well, I’d just like to reemphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel, OK?” Musk asked. “Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel, and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long–some high point that you experienced some five years ago or whatever. Go for efficiency, as environmentally friendly, nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way. So hopefully, this message goes out to all mining companies.”

Nickel has been sought after by Tesla since then due to its environmental advantages over other rare earth metals that are used in electric car batteries. Since Musk’s call for nickel suppliers to mine more of it, Tesla has discussed and secured some nickel deals, including one with LG to supply high-nickel batteries to Gigafactory Shanghai in China next year. Tesla also signed an agreement with BHP, an Australian nickel company, in July 2021.

Tesla has also been in need of nickel while the company still develops and builds its 4680 battery cell. Nickel is a key material that Tesla needs for its high-powered batteries, including the 4680 cells. The cells are currently in pilot production at the company’s Kato Road facility in Fremont, California.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2022, 06:16:52 pm by petejh »

shark

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Backed the proverbial truck up with LDG which following disposal of its sole investment is trading at 13.5p despite a declared 18.5p of cash per share. Best case is they swiftly wind up and return that cash to shareholders. Worst case is they spunk it away on a duff acquisition. However given their track record and especially the track record of the investment manager DBay frittering the cash away seems highly unlikely. Another potential outcome if they don’t wind up or make a large investment is a partial return of cash and the rest retained awaiting a suitable acquisition. Another way the value may be outed is if they start buying their own shares which enhances their value and bumps the share price up towards 18p fair value. Probably as good a downside protection as it gets and potential 30% upside one way or the other but hard to call the timescale.

This is playing out perfectly now - shame it’s dry January but the protein shakes are on me.

The cash per share went up to 19.2p following receipt of some more cash but crazily it was possible to buy around 12.5p which I took advantage of.

Today they’ve announced an intention to buy back 20% of the shares to be voted on at a GM at the end of the month and the price has gone up 8% on the news to ~14.5p per share which is still a steal as the buyback price <should> be over 17p per share. The market may close the gap on digesting the news but I’ve no spare cash to buy more.

Edit: Just sold another holding to buy more at 13.9p. Bonkers

Further edit: Depending on the offer price the buyback could be oversubscribed but it’s a win because if priced low the NAV of retained shares will increase and if priced high then I’ll only get to sell 20% of my holding but for about a ~40% uplift on those shares unless they just buy in the market

Further edit: Been told they will buy in the market. Not in a rush to sell unless it gets close to NTAV
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 01:54:42 pm by shark »

petejh

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Hopefully people have been enjoying the fruits of the tin, nickel and copper suggestions put forward here over the last 12 months.
Filo will continue to release great results throughout the first half of this year. It didn't go unnoticed by the market(!) that they released the best silver intercept of the last few years globally - beating all dedicated silver explorers - from a hole that they had to abort at mid depth which was targeting copper at depth (the silver zone isn't a surprise, the grade and extent was). My target of $20, which I've no doubt barring force majeure it will hit as it doesn't even factor the sulphides at depth i.e. the most valuable part of Filo, is being updated to $30 for the next 12 months. I'll be taking profits at $20 and leaving the rest on the table. Best resource discovery company ever.

Alphamin announced a blockbuster first dividend of 3%, which for anyone who bought a significant amount of shares by getting in early is a large divi! But the story's still only getting started here. They'll be releasing the maiden resource estimate for the neighbouring Mpana south deposit any day now, expect a realistic target of $2 to start appearing in broker notes. Amazing company, a rare combo of superb value and exciting growth. Still holding all.
Tin price keeps hitting all time highs, MLX also a beneficiary. Expecting tin price to ease of through the year but the price increase is based on sustained demand and only expected to float down to low 40s. Price has turned these two companies into cash machines.

Centaurus released updated resource estimate, absolutely stellar - Sprott upgraded price target to over $2. Nickel price being squeezed this year. Talon should also benefit from the sentiment.

Meridian churning out good result after good result. A few more holes still to come then it's into an updated resource estimate early this year and PFS late this year. I'll probably be selling into strength here.

GMG - got it's production plant built and sent it's graphene-aluminium batteries to customers for evaluation, next catalyst is feedback and decisions from customers. Another catalyst is announcement of revenue from Thermal XR air-con treatment.

Kirkland Lake just added a couple of billion to its market cap on gold breaking out... other majors similar, juniors should follow if its sustained. GGP at a pivotal point next month.

Illika/Trackwise/Polarean/Orosur/Artemis - holding pattern, nothing much doing except Artemis, have to wait till March for assays.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2022, 08:10:06 pm by petejh »

kelvin

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Yeah, happy times for Filo currently and that huge silver hit seems to have caused some momentum - I'm up about 55% but sadly outside of my ISA.

Alphamin is however lacking momentum... no doubt it'll pick up speed as the tin squeeze gets ever greater.

Interesting to see your nickel choice of Centaurus. My PF has non but my better half has North American Nickel NAN.v, which is already performing well for her.

Artemis - I have a small holding in but nice to see them going on record to say "Havieron-like geology encountered".

Tech stuff not doing well currently but not overly concerned - not got too much in it, apart from a chunk inScottish Mortgage.

Here's to Filo achieving your hopes for it Pete.

petejh

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Yep the $1 mark is the current stepping stone. It'll pass. Alphamin has a very large shareholder in Denham Capital from early days. I believe there's some overhang there as profits are taken around the dollar mark, but this is a massively bullish company only going in one direction over time.

Looked at NAN.v recently, I'm sure they're also going to do v.well in this environment.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2022, 09:07:08 pm by petejh »

Nigel

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Pete, what trading platform do you use? I'm sure the answer is somewhere in the thread but its a lot to wade through! Cheers  :)

petejh

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Nige, I use interactive investor.


Filo drill results today were great as expected. A capital raise is now incoming, hence the subdued response. But will be a tiny dilution for, I'm guessing, $50-100m which will fund the increased rig count and costs for the next 12 months of drilling. The first of many brokers today raised their target to $30 - Haywood Capital. More to follow no doubt.

Next up, AFM with the maiden resource announcement for south.

Sold all my Talon today into strength for +25%. I see Centaurus as a better project long term.

shark

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Guess I’m talking to myself with regard to boring value plays but further to previous posts on LDG the proposed changes to the investment policy and the share buyback has been approved.

An exemption has been approved such that the reduction in shares from the buyback won’t automatically trigger a takeover requirement for DBay and concert party if the threshold is crossed. The proportion of equity held by them is a concern and the risk of a future stitch up for private investors is concerning but given their activities reputational damage is important.

The announcement has triggered a small rise today but only to 13.8p whilst the current cash per share stands at 18.7p (I think). That cash per share figure will rise as they buyback shares at a discount to cash.

The change in investment policy now gives DBay in its role as investment manager virtual free rein to invest in a wide range of sectors in unlisted and listed companies. Their track record in this respect is excellent. If the buyback clears out disaffected shareholders such that the gap closes between the market SP and the Cash per Share then I’ll most likely sell out. If not I’m happy to wait and see how they invest the remaining cash.

petejh

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Not at all Si, I'm listening! Value stocks are looking attractive with the smashdown of many US tech growth names recently, thankfully I don't invest in US tech growth stocks as mostly the subject matter doesn't interest me. My only one is GMG on the TSX, a battery play which I find fascinating to see where it goes.

LDG looks a steady and reassuring way to get a return in a volatile market. I have a couple of value plays, still in the commodities sector and far more volatile but really very steady due to the underlying quality of the business.

My best value play is Alphamin, it's incredible value with the glitter of growth thrown in, plus opportunity for a T/O down the line. Last quarter's earnings returned $75m EBITDA of $75m and these will likely be at least same or higher going forwards. So a company printing $300m EBITDA annually at a market cap of 3 X EBITDA, in a sector that averages closer to 10 X. The market is still only coming around to what's happening there in sleepy tin-land, despite the steady rise in share price over last 18 months. I'm being paid a 3% dividend this month for a cash figure that amounts to 6% of my original investment. Scale that up annually : ))  Then throw in the massive resource growth potential as highlighted by latest drill results released yesterday. As I've been banging the drum for the last twelve months, this is only going in one direction unless the DRC falls into a bad situation, possible but not probable.

Another value play that I'd love to invest in but can't is UAN. At least I can't invest in my ISA, I think I could over the phone into my general account but can't be bothered with the CGT that will likely result. It's a US nitrogen fertiliser company called CVR Partners (ticker UAN). They're benefitting from higher prices in the US market but also a number of factors coming together at the current time, including the current nat gas price hikes in Europe making fertiliser imports to the US more expensive, and unrest and sanctions in Ukraine/Belarus/Russia shutting down nitrogen fertiliser exports from those areas. Check out this value thesis underwritten by a large dividend, with a double (or higher) in sp growth thrown in. It's quite compelling:
https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/uan-plums-best-commodities-play

Liamhutch89

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At 32, I've just started my investment journey so will be reading this thread with a bit more interest. Currently i'm not doing anything as exciting as picking stocks, but i've set up a monthly direct debit of 10% of my gross salary to Vanguard's 80% equity lifestrategy fund through their shares ISA. Feels like a sensible move from just spending my income or letting it sit in the bank. I'd like to increase the % when I can, but currently it's one wage paying the mortgage and supporting a family of soon to be 5!

petejh

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Good move. Just keep paying it in even when the market's dropping and it might feel like paying good money after bad - in fact especially when the market's dropping or crashing! As those contributions during declining market months and years (if they happen) will be your biggest earners when you come out the other side. I recommend this as a good read, really resonated with me, probably because I'd made many of the errors of thinking in my 20s and early 30s. 

shark

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Thanks Pete but I’ve no experience of commodities/resource stocks.

It would have to be a very simple investment TNAV case of the value of proven mineable product less a low level of debt and I suspect that would point to the BLT’s and RTZ’s of this world.

petejh

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Yep, those companies are steady plodders, where you can take a view on the future price movement of their respective commodities and leverage it by investing in those big miners with their known or fairly certain forward estimates of annual production. They bore me! Although I do enjoy the steady return I get from Kirkland Lake as one of the most efficient gold majors.
Even better as value plays in the commodity/PMs space are the big royalties companies - Osisko Royalty, Franco-Nevada etc. They benefit from all the same margin leverage on the commodity price as the miners do, but with none of the downside risk of operations. Again, they bore me!

I love getting into the weeds and researching to try to find the good early stage discoveries and little-known undervalued producers.

Liamhutch89

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Good move. Just keep paying it in even when the market's dropping and it might feel like paying good money after bad - in fact especially when the market's dropping or crashing! As those contributions during declining market months and years (if they happen) will be your biggest earners when you come out the other side. I recommend this as a good read, really resonated with me, probably because I'd made many of the errors of thinking in my 20s and early 30s.

Cheers Pete, I've just finished the audiobook you recommended and enjoyed it. A lot of what's written should be common sense (which isn't all that common), but there were some good take aways. One of my favourite parts was not strictly finance related, but on finding the best way to live without regrets by enduring the moderate path. On the basis we overestimate how much we have changed from our younger selves yet underestimate how much we will change in the future, investing moderately, having moderate freetime, etc. resonated as having a lower likelihood of regret in the future.

petejh

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I was thinking today about global trackers and thought it’s worth mentioning this site for some good pointers. Written in the main by two authors with contrasting approaches to investing for retirement - one slow, steady and passive (i.e. trackers) and the other actively stock-picking and trading over a shorter term. It’s a great site with loads of good info. There are obvs loads of investment advice sites out there, but I keep coming back to this one as it’s hard to beat for an overview from a UK perspective, and seems at least fairly independent.

It’s worth knowing (if you don’t already) that many commentators believe the US markets will underperform over the next decade, following an amazing run of returns over the last decade or so.
Of course you could find plenty of commentators who believe the opposite. But worth bearing in mind at least where the US market currently sits in the context of the last 15 years of high returns since 2008/9, relative to the valuations of other markets such as UK, Europe, China, Japan and emerging. I’d certainly be expecting weakness in anything that heavily tracks US tech/growth markets currently.

https://monevator.com/category/investing/passive-investing-investing/

There’s an article somewhere on there comparing various global trackers or combos of trackers.

petejh

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Obviously I follow a bunch of people in tinnickelcopperland. One guy I follow closely is Mark Thompson, a director at Meridian Mining, Cornish Metals and a bunch of others in that sphere. Worth a follow if you're interested about investing in tin, copper and commodities in general.

There's an IPO coming to the LSE main market (not AIM). Marketing for it starts on Monday. Company is called First Tin. It has exploration projects ongoing in Germany plus a project in Aus. Like Cornish it could be another good one to get in early as the whole tin thesis - demand for 'green' tin instead of destructive Indonesian dredging, increase in demand from the energy transition and the move to put 'chips in everything', and the raging commodity price, - is beginning to get noticed by the crowd. It'll be interesting to see the marketing but from their website they're obviously heavily playing the ESG card for their 'environmentally sound' tin produced in Germany and processed in Europe. This is the way the market's going, more and more people want to feel reassured (somewhat belatedly..) that the raw materials in their car, phone, laptop and charging infrastructure weren't obtained by reliance on poverty-stricken teenagers dying in artisan Myanmar mines or via destroying marine habitat off the cost of Indonesia by a corrupt state-owned entity.   

I can see it doing well in the current environment, providing the whole western market system doesn't melt down over Ukraine.. It has the advantage of not being in the DRC! Could attract those muppets - sorry investors - too scared to invest in  Alphamin.   :)

Website: https://firsttin.com/
« Last Edit: February 12, 2022, 12:22:40 pm by petejh »

Fultonius

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Obviously I follow a bunch of people in tinnickelcopperland. One guy I follow closely is Mark Thompson, a director at Meridian Mining, Cornish Metals and a bunch of others in that sphere. Worth a follow if you're interested about investing in tin, copper and commodities in general.

There's an IPO coming to the LSE main market (not AIM). Marketing for it starts on Monday. Company is called First Tin. It has exploration projects ongoing in Germany plus a project in Aus. Like Cornish it could be another good one to get in early as the whole tin thesis - demand for 'green' tin instead of destructive Indonesian dredging, increase in demand from the energy transition and the move to put 'chips in everything', and the raging commodity price, - is beginning to get noticed by the crowd. It'll be interesting to see the marketing but from their website they're obviously heavily playing the ESG card for their 'environmentally sound' tin produced in Germany and processed in Europe. This is the way the market's going, more and more people want to feel reassured (somewhat belatedly..) that the raw materials in their car, phone, laptop and charging infrastructure weren't obtained by reliance on poverty-stricken teenagers dying in artisan Myanmar mines or via destroying marine habitat off the cost of Indonesia by a corrupt state-owned entity.   

I can see it doing well in the current environment, providing the whole western market system doesn't melt down over Ukraine.. It has the advantage of not being in the DRC! Could attract those muppets - sorry investors - too scared to invest in  Alphamin.   :)

Website: https://firsttin.com/

So, how do you get in on an IPO like that?

I'm so far doing pretty poorly with my choices of shares (most of the funds are doing ok, recent dip notwithstanding). In fact...the only thing doing well so far is....you guessed it....FILO! 

Arrival has been a total flop. Doubt it's even a good buy at current prices.

Proves the point - it's not hard to make money on the stock market, but it's even easier to lose it  :lol:

petejh

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WH Ireland are running the IPO, they can be contacted here but likely the IPO will only be available to high net worths and insto investors: https://whirelandinvestorforum.com/

I contacted them yesterday, waiting for reply. Will likely have to buy on the market, I'll see what market cap the initial placing gives them and see how sentiment is when they hit the market.


Arrival listed at almost he worst possible moment in the big picture. Not a good environment for high PE growth stocks.  Now's a good moment for the cyclical stuff but if you're late to that story you're playing catch up as it runs ever higher. Many commodity stocks are doing very well and I'll continue to expect good things this year barring black swans. Nitrogen fertilisers are a compelling thesis and I've been considering MOS or CF but I don't really have anything that I'd want to sell to put into it, all my commodity stocks are doing great and I expect them to continue for 1H this year at least.

Anything unprofitable and long-term growth is best left in the bottom drawer and forgotten about for now, unless you need the money.


kelvin

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Obviously I follow a bunch of people in tinnickelcopperland. One guy I follow closely is Mark Thompson, a director at Meridian Mining, Cornish Metals and a bunch of others in that sphere. Worth a follow if you're interested about investing in tin, copper and commodities in general.

There's an IPO coming to the LSE main market (not AIM). Marketing for it starts on Monday. Company is called First Tin. It has exploration projects ongoing in Germany plus a project in Aus. Like Cornish it could be another good one to get in early as the whole tin thesis - demand for 'green' tin instead of destructive Indonesian dredging, increase in demand from the energy transition and the move to put 'chips in everything', and the raging commodity price, - is beginning to get noticed by the crowd. It'll be interesting to see the marketing but from their website they're obviously heavily playing the ESG card for their 'environmentally sound' tin produced in Germany and processed in Europe. This is the way the market's going, more and more people want to feel reassured (somewhat belatedly..) that the raw materials in their car, phone, laptop and charging infrastructure weren't obtained by reliance on poverty-stricken teenagers dying in artisan Myanmar mines or via destroying marine habitat off the cost of Indonesia by a corrupt state-owned entity.   

I can see it doing well in the current environment, providing the whole western market system doesn't melt down over Ukraine.. It has the advantage of not being in the DRC! Could attract those muppets - sorry investors - too scared to invest in  Alphamin.   :)

Website: https://firsttin.com/

So, how do you get in on an IPO like that?

I'm so far doing pretty poorly with my choices of shares (most of the funds are doing ok, recent dip notwithstanding). In fact...the only thing doing well so far is....you guessed it....FILO! 

Arrival has been a total flop. Doubt it's even a good buy at current prices.

Proves the point - it's not hard to make money on the stock market, but it's even easier to lose it  :lol:

Sometimes, keeping the faith/trust in your choice can be diffy if you're down 40/50% but if you've really done your research then practicing paitience is all that's needed to garner a return.
I have a couple I'm heavily down on but the both companies are doing great, it's just the share price doesn't reflect that.

Last week, one of mine jumped 38% in a day, over 50% in three days - that'd been flat for a while, even with some great news with regards to financing.  So patience definitely paid off for me.

 

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