[petejh]

I don't know.. they show up on mine. Anyone else?

[remus]

I don't know.. they show up on mine. Anyone else?

Not for me. Looks like they might be hosted on Google photos or something? You've probably got permission to see them Pete, where other people don't. You could try a free image hosting service like https://m.imgur.com/

[teestub]

I don't know.. they show up on mine. Anyone else?

Show up on safari on my phone but not on chrome on laptop 🤔

[kelvin]

Initially I saw them in Google photos but now, as a small picture on my phone.

[petejh]

Hopefully these should work.

The 4 bullish TA signals are in my post above.


Sept 27th
Daily


Weekly


Daily zoomed in



Oct 8th
Daily


Weekly

[largeruk]

@petejh Thanks a lot. Much appreciated.

[AJM]

Noticed that Cornish spiked a few days ago back up above 15p, pushing back towards the 16p region it occupied briefly earlier in the year. Happened the day they announced a new non exec appointment, although there could be something else behind it.

Having topped up in July and then been on the wrong side of the falls in August it's nice to see it back up again.

[James Malloch]

Noticed that Cornish spiked a few days ago back up above 15p, pushing back towards the 16p region it occupied briefly earlier in the year. Happened the day they announced a new non exec appointment, although there could be something else behind it.

Having topped up in July and then been on the wrong side of the falls in August it's nice to see it back up again.

Damn, I shouldn’t have cut my losses 

[petejh]

Noticed that Cornish spiked a few days ago back up above 15p, pushing back towards the 16p region it occupied briefly earlier in the year. Happened the day they announced a new non exec appointment, although there could be something else behind it.

Having topped up in July and then been on the wrong side of the falls in August it's nice to see it back up again.

The rise also coincides with a well-regarded commodities fintwit guy giving a lot of love for Cornish as one of three investable tin plays.

My opinion on Cornish is that they're the least likely of the three main plays on tin to do well over the long term. The other two being Alphamin and MetalsX.
AFM and MLX are both producers. Tin price has rocketed for 18 months, is still rocketing, and shows little sign of going back down over the next 12-18 months due to fundamental issues in the supply chain from Malaysian and Indonesian producers to processors and Chinese smelters. The producers have turned into huge cash generating machines. AFM especially.

Cornish is an explorer without any cashflow, and is rising from what I can tell partly on hype associated with tin's bull market. I bought Cornish in early 2021 on the hope that their second project, United Downs, would prove to be another economic deposit to compliment South Crofty. Drilling results released to date hasn't shown this so I sold (at ~50% profit). South Crofty is currently being dewatered and this will take best part of another 12 months and then follows a large capex investment to re-open the historic mine. The net present value of South Crofty alone doesn't justify the share price of Cornish afaik. They need United Downs or a.n.other good deposit to raise the net asset value.
Positives are the UK government getting involved in incentivising national projects such as Cornish's. Also that Cornish have exposure to copper in their mines.

I'd be cautious with Cornish. Of any commodities investment, the explorers have the potential to rise the most dramatically on any hint of a good hit. They'll also benefit from bullish sentiment in the commodity they're exploring for. However they're typically pop and drop stories unless the deposit is off the scale world class (Filo, GGP. Possibly also Meridian but unsure yet).

All that said I stopped following Cornish closely after I sold so don't know the latest rumours.

High risk high reward.
 
All just imo.   

[AJM]

That's interesting stuff Pete, cheers. I've yet to decide what to do about it, but your comments about it being partly driven by hype had echoes with some of what I was thinking - prior to the point about fintwit I had been thinking that the appointment of a non exec seemed pretty weak grounds for a big move in share price and that this might be froth - worth taking the opportunity to cash out on given as you say the United project didn't seem to come through as people had hoped. Need to have a think once I've got some free time.

[James Malloch]

A few big jumps in Filo recently. Any news that I’m missing other than the listing on a different stock exchange and a new director appointed today.

For some reason it was removed from ISA view on HL for a while so I stoped checking it. Nice to see it 5% up compared to me being 25% down not that long ago!

[petejh]

Mostly just that they resumed drilling following the 6 weeks lay-off over August/Sept while they winterised the exploration camp. Investors taking a position in anticipation. This next round of drilling will be year-round now that Filo know they have their teeth into the best new copper discovery in a generation to prove up. Filo say the first 3 drills will be centred around hole 41 from last season - the hole that discovered a high grade feeder zone to the copper porphyry and which sent the price parabolic. Expect result from these 3 holes by mid-November.

Price rise also due to basics of investor demand. Multiple brokerages and investment banks now with analyst coverage of Filo, all have a 12-month share price target of between $13 and $20. Breakdown of different banks:
National Bank C$12.75
BMO C$13.00
Cormark C$13.00
Stifel C$13.00
PI Financial C$13.50
Scotia C$13.50
Canaccord C$15.00
SpareBank C$16.80
Haywood C$20.00

The latest broker note was yesterday from Norwegian bank Sparebank, target of $16.80. The note available to read here:      https://www.docdroid.net/LR1EHmp/211015-sb1m-mining-fil-october-update-pdf

[petejh]

Oh and the other news investors are positioning ahead for is the expected announcement on a 'fiscal stability' agreement between the Argentinian government and major mining companies with projects in country. Currently there's uncertainty to what extent the gov will incentivise mining projects through taxation. Announcement will be any time between today and early 2022. Expectation is a positive agreement (but nothing is guaranteed). If positive then it will be a catalyst for Filo price, as well as the other nearby projects Josemaria and Los Helados.   
One other catalyst to watch for is a forthcoming decision on environmental permit for development of Lundn's Josemaria copper/gold project, nearby to Filo del Sol. Josemaria is further advanced towards construction and its processing plant will be used to process Filo's ore, lowering initial capex costs to mine Filo. Environmental permit a crucial stage for them to clear.

[kelvin]

Nice to see it 5% up compared to me being 25% down not that long ago!

I managed to average down before the current rises, happy I did now.

Filo is calm compared to some mining stocks. Three weeks ago I was 38% down on one stock and now I'm 38% up on it! Not for the fainthearted.

[Fultonius]

Filo seems to be on a steady gain just now. I bought some more on a dip, but the dip kept dipping... Didn't have any spare / willingness to increase my holding when it was really low, but sitting on 13% just now, which nicely offsets some of my other poor picks...

One was a genuinely poor pick, and the info was there - I just didn't do enough research / understand (TPIC renewables). The other is just a bit snoozy and was maybe overbought when I got in (Hyundai), but the fundamentals seem ok so it's probably not worth ditching (went for the higher ESG rating). The final one is a total punt, that's currently down a bit but I'll hodl a bit longer - Arrival EV. They have got a very unique manufacturing model, which if successful could be an interesting market disruptor. Or it'll tank...  Just wish I could be buying in now, and not when I did haha.

Learning lesson was - probably worth tracking / watching some picks for a while to see how they perform before actually stumping any cash.

Generally my funds seem to be doing well, so that's nice. Even the Asia focussed ones have rebounded after the scares last month. I'm quite glad I put 85%+ of my portfolio in the hands of people who know what they're doing. 

[petejh]

Yep Filo is as banker a share as any commodities explorer could be. Exciting times ahead between now and new year (and far beyond).

The final one is a total punt, that's currently down a bit but I'll hodl a bit longer - Arrival EV. They have got a very unique manufacturing model, which if successful could be an interesting market disruptor. Or it'll tank...  Just wish I could be buying in now, and not when I did haha.

Arrival could be a good hold. I'm invested in Trackwise Designs who won a contract with Arrival to manufacture the lightweight printed wiring harnesses which will be used in Arrival van's battery packs. Interesting concept with Arrival building micro factories and using pre-coloured body parts made from lightweight plastic to reduce costs from paint shops. Next year should be interesting as they begin production in UK.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/957564/arrival-reports-strong-demand-for-electric-vans-and-buses-despite-delayed-trials-957564.html

Learning lesson was - probably worth tracking / watching some picks for a while to see how they perform before actually stumping any cash.

This is where some very basic charting comes in very useful to take out the FOMO and time entry/exit based on the pattern. Companies always dip and rise around a mean. A useful basic tool for getting in on a rising share is to use the 8, 21, 50 and 200-day moving averages. Depending on how strong a trend is the price will always revert to one (or all) of these MAs. i.e. a strong uptrend might only bounce off the 8MA before continuing upwards. Eventually though everything comes back down. Worth looking at both daily and weekly timescales as it helps to keep things in perspective.
Look at the chart for FILO for example. It's rocketed up on the discovery of the extent of the sulphides beneath the oxide cap, and the realisation that they'll be economic to mine and will likely grow in scale. Then price settled down to the 50MA following the excitement (the recent 'dip', which was a perfect opportunity to get in).
Obviously it helps to look beyond just MAs and have an understanding of if the company might be fundamentally overvalued or not - something could be a speculative bubble based on hype. Only knowing this will give long-term gains. But if a company is trending up then entering on dips to or below the MAs at least helps move the odds in favour towards making future gains.
In Filo's case it's highly likely the future fundamental value of the filo del sol discovery is still far higher than current price suggests, so the price will continue it's uptrend bouncing off and around the MAs as it goes.   
(line on chart is my drawn resistance line).




From the Arrival chart below I'm guessing you got in the high 20s/low 30s after the initial rise. Chart looks similar to Filo's - can't tell why one should drop and the other shouldn't from looking.  Only knowing the fundamentals of the respective companies and markets would help stack the odds in favour. For Filo I did, for Arrival I wouldn't know enough about them in particular or the EV market to know if the initial hype was justified or not. Current price values them at a $9billion company. Ford motor company valued at $63billion for comparison. Tesla $1trillion as of yesterday but Arrival aren't going to be the next Tesla.. are they?


 

Generally my funds seem to be doing well, so that's nice. Even the Asia focussed ones have rebounded after the scares last month. I'm quite glad I put 85%+ of my portfolio in the hands of people who know what they're doing. 

Hope the charges are reasonable!


Talking of getting in at the wrong time, I completely ignored my own advice when buying into GMG (graphene aluminium-ion batteries) and bought the spike when I knew I should have just waited and let it come back to the mean. Emotion definitely got the better of me on that one. However massive news yesterday - they got a letter of intent from Bosch to collaborate in designing and building  a manufacturing plant to produce the first graphene aluminium-ion batteries. Massive news. Up 25% on the day, likely they'll continue upwards from here but don't get spiked!
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/gmg-and-bosch-sign-collaboration-arrangement-for-bosch

[Fultonius]

I first bought in at $19 for Arrival, and then doubled up at $15.20, so nudging into profit on the second lot, but overall still down. 200dma seems to be gently nudging in the right direction.

I'm still unsure about the various merits of active / passive and low cost vs high performance funds. Did loads of reading, and the advice was "go low cost at all costs", but looking at the track record of the growth on some of the more managed funds (which, for my appetite are the preferable ones due to higher ESG ratings etc.), they're doing by far the best even with fees.

E.G. I have quite a bit in Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity, which is so far doing 10% better with fees than my Vanguard low fee passive fund. Still researching this area, but I've not seen any passive funds with the growth history of those, and, especially high ESG ranked funds. For me it's not about making money at all costs, but also being relatively happy in who I am investing in. I suppose I could just build my own portfolio of stocks based on the holdings in one of those funds...but I'm just not sure I can be arsed just now...

The only fund doing badly is the Black Rock World Mining, and it's not even close to being ESG haha. It's -10% but I don't have much in it.

[Rocksteady]

I'm still unsure about the various merits of active / passive and low cost vs high performance funds. Did loads of reading, and the advice was "go low cost at all costs", but looking at the track record of the growth on some of the more managed funds (which, for my appetite are the preferable ones due to higher ESG ratings etc.), they're doing by far the best even with fees.

E.G. I have quite a bit in Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity, which is so far doing 10% better with fees than my Vanguard low fee passive fund. Still researching this area, but I've not seen any passive funds with the growth history of those, and, especially high ESG ranked funds. For me it's not about making money at all costs, but also being relatively happy in who I am investing in. I suppose I could just build my own portfolio of stocks based on the holdings in one of those funds...but I'm just not sure I can be arsed just now...

The received wisdom in the wealth management industry is that passives outperform in bullish trending markets, but actives outperform in choppy markets or where there is a downturn. Portfolio managers often recommend a mix of actives and passives depending on the market and the client objectives.

Personally I chuck my regular investments into passives for long term growth then have a certain amount set aside in previous tax year ISAs that I play around with in active investments and individual stocks. I like actives for themes like tech and ESG and particular regional focuses. Probably an 80:20 mix passive to active. The actives tend to do better but require much more time and effort to pick and manage etc which I can't always be bothered with.

[kelvin]

I have two funds/trusts, both of which are managed. It seemed to me that they perform better, certainly in the growth sector which is often volatile.
I have 25% of my portfolio in Scottish Mortgage and I've also just started adding monthly to a BMO sustainable growth fund.
Scottish Mortgage is a no brainer for me, I wanted exposure to tech and reasonably low fees.
Everything else is in mining of one type or another apart from a few bob in VSBLTY Groupe, an AI advertising and security company that has some great partners and hopefully a bright future.

[petejh]

My* early 2021 investment thesis for tin validated here, widespread acknowledgement that prices must remain elevated:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tin-ticks-all-commodity-supercycle-boxes-andy-home-2021-11-08/


Tin:
Alphamin returning latest results from expansion exploration, joining up into one zone:
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/alphamin-provides-mpama-north-and-mpama-south-drilling

AFM release Q3 results this Thursday, expect lots of cash flow and possible maiden dividend announcement.
MLX, steady 2 steps forward/1 back.


Good overview of my* thesis on the other transition metals:   
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/faster-decarbonisation-back-to-basics-for-the-mining-industry/?utm_campaign=metals-mining&utm_medium=email&utm_source=pardot

https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/cop26-will-ensure-metal-demand--but-what-about-supply/

Copper:
Filo. (don't get spiked!) another ATH day..
Meridian Mining (ditto) another ATH day..

Nickel:
Centauras Metals, updated resource estimate due end '21. T/O target.
Talon Metals, maiden resource estimate end '21/Q1 '22. T/O target.

Batteries:
GMG.v (graphene-aluminium-ion) another ATH day.. pumping up on excitement ahead of pilot plant beginning production end of 2021 and letter of intent from Bosch to enter partnership. (don't get spiked)
Ilika (solid state), mostly all quiet but a little bit of interest, probably due to COP26. Revenue from commercial sales of miniature 'stereax' SS batteries begins Q1 '22 - medical devices and industrial IOT.  Their EV trial battery goes into pilot production end '22.

EVs parts supply:
TWD. Quiet, waiting on news of more contracts, commencement of supply to Arrival EV vans,

Gold:
GBR.v T/O target. recent ATH on rumours surrounding Barrick and other majors circling. Maiden resource estimate expected before year-end, expected to be large, shallow and high grade. (don't get spiked)
GGP, testing the arc again... my target still mid-high 20s. Updated resource end '21/early'22.
Kirkland Lake, good price here, world's best major producer with most tier 1 mines in safe jurisdictions. If you believe gold price will rise then KL the highest quality producer bet for leverage. About to merge with Agnico Eagle to make world's largest gold producer.

Adriatic Metals. I sold for a 26% profit on the news of Serb Republic leader angling for secession. Amazing company and resource, too much risk of civil war. Would consider buying back in if the political situation calms down. 

Sold my short-term bet on bitcoin (ARB) at the last ATH for a 11% profit, I'll take that.


All the co's I've marked 'don't get spiked' are pumping ahead at the moment, caution. Probably not a good time to buy until they fall back. Higher risk of short term loss. Also the S&P/Nasdaq now very near to overbought, expect a pullback which might pull everything back (good and bad), could be a good BTD opportunity for the above co's if you believe there's value in them.


*not my original ideas, someone far smarter than me!

[petejh]

Just a quick one for anyone into the volatile world of battery investments. I said in the last post don't get spiked on GMG (Graphene Manufacturing Group). It had been moving up strongly and I imagined it would spike and fall. However it's still moving up on an extremely strong momentum move.

The suspicion is they have backers who want them to apply for an uplisting to the Nasdaq. Share price required for GMG to be eligible for listing is above/around C$6.20 and stable, and it's showing every sign of getting there. Suspected that the backers are investing in GMG now to raise the price to get the listing (to raise the price etc.). If GMG did apply for and gain listing, then all bets would be off for what sort of lunacy valuation the market might put on them. The obvious comparator would be QuantumScape, who are backed by VW. GMG's battery is supposedly better than QS's, and the rumour is that GMG are also ahead of QS in terms of getting it to market. Whatever the truth, their deal announced last month with Bosch to construct a pilot plant has properly lit the touchpaper here and it might continue to rocket, or all fizzle out with a little bang and fall to earth.

I wasn't actually that positive about GMG's management after watching some earlier interviews, seemd a bit flaky around the details and future plans. But I'm coming around. I think it might be that the ceo is a nerd more than a typical ceo and I'm wondering if he's one of those types who's capable of creating something amazing while making it sound kind of unlikely or even a bit ordinary. The management team are actually ex-Shell who left to set up GMG and are apparently very highly regarded.

Various articles and interviews explain GMG's unique tech if you search. Basically they manufacture their own high purity graphene from cracking natural gas, and use this to manufacture a graphene-aluminium-ion battery with better energy density than lithium-ion, and which is way faster charging (reportedly 60x). Also not as flammable as Li-ion. If it truly works as promised and makes its way to full commercial production then it'll be immense. Big if's though. Pilot plant commences production end of this year.

They also have some revenue coming in early next year from another clever use of graphene as a spray on coating to the inner workings of large air-con systems which makes them up to 40% more energy efficient. Smart!


Definitely high risk, but now looking like potentially a v.high reward if things go to plan. I got in on the back of the last rise at low $3s (and thought I'd spiked myself!), will be holding for the ride.


https://graphenemg.com/energy-storage-solutions/aluminum-ion-battery/

[sdm]

Cornish Metals has been on an absolute tear recently with the results at United Downs.

Ilika has been for the last few days too. Which appears to be based on nothing more than being on track to meet their previously stated Stereax schedule.

[petejh]

Yeah I've been watching Cornish rip. I sold around 15 for a 50% gain as, based on the drill results, I wasn't convinced United Downs would become a realistic economic project. I remain of the same opinion, and the latest drill results reinforce that.

The price rise isn't based on the drill results, it can't be, because they're just not that good. I think more likely is the rise is linked to Cornish Lithium's recent announcement of receiving a large funding agreement to accelerate their project to extract lithium from hard rock and also from brines deep under some of CM's projects. This potentially positively impacts the valuation of Cornish Metals for the reasons linked here (tldr - royalty streams and 25% earn-in for any of CL's brine projects that are on CM's mineral rights):   https://www.cornishmetals.com/projects/uk/cornish-lithium/

However, I'm still not convinced this is it. From what I understand about Cornish Lithium's projects the main focus is on the hard rock project at Trevalour, which isn't within Cornish Metal's mineral rights.

Two other explanations for CM's rise are
1. exploratory drilling is also ongoing at another area away from United Downs - a few K's south of Sotuh Crofty. A leaky ship may have revealed a discovery here perhaps.
2. general hype around continued strength in tin price and forecasts for 2022 and beyond.


Whatever the reason, I'm entirely unconvinced *so far* that Cornish have proven anything more than South Crofty will be a small scale and expensive, but economic to mine, tin/copper deposit (which they first have to dewater and construct new infrastructure within 100+ year old mine workings).

If I were still holding, I'd be selling. But I said that at 15....  There's no doubt CM has the potential to turn into an AIM meme stock given the current decarbonisation narrative.

[petejh]

Meanwhile, I'd urge anybody interested in the tin investment thesis to look at Alphamin. I was saying it at around 60c, 70c, 80c, 90c and it's still the same no-brainer. Join the dots in this recent report from Edison - especially focus on the 'expansion valuation part',  and compare with the exploration drilling results reported since earlier this year from Mpana South. More holes to be reported before year end. Mpana South resource estimate to be announced early 2022 and then again one month later. 

Anyone concerned by the DRC jurisdiction could hedge by putting 50/50 in Alphamin / Metals X (Australian company, the only other major tin producer available to buy on western markets).

It's quite funny that Alphamin's mine has this year turned into one of the top 3 mines globally for most valuable ore per ton. Yep, high-grade tin, @ $40,000 per ton or a gold equivalent grade of 31 g/t, is a more valuable ore per ton than nearly all current gold, platinum, uranium, silver or rare-earths mines.

[petejh]

Ilika's rise coincides with them starting commercial production of the 'stereax' solid state battery. This is a pretty big deal when you consider how many companies globally actually commercially produce solid state batteries! Also the company listed on a minor US OTC exchange and the US investors love a solid state battery story. Things are looking promising here.

But the real excitement for me is GMG. This company is amazing, the management aren't the sort of people you'd see in a small start-up. All ex high-level Shell execs from the natural gas sector.. now using natural gas to produce high-purity graphene. Their 3 products are each ingenious and highly relevant to the state of the world's energy requirement. Research them! If they pull it off, the market is going to be very impressed with what they're about to release end of this year and early next - if their performance stats are legit and scale up, the battery market's going to have the rules changed by a tiddler of a company and hardly anyone's been talking about it.