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'Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip'.. The Investor's Thread (Read 113330 times)

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I'm genuinely interested in Pete's tips as well (vicariously as I could never devote that much effort into just trying to make money) but it's important to know the solidity of the risk research for public recommendations and that includes the company ethics (ie a mining concern he is recommending is nothing like the many scum mining companies despoiling the local environment via local corruption). Who knows, he might have this information. What's in the small print?

I'm certainly not the SJW he accused me of, I'm just an inquisitive middle class UK social liberal who doesn't need to worry about money and made all my own through a professional vocation and fairly conservative, hands-off investment of anything spare.

ali k

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Personally I much prefer Pete's stock tips to the other stuff that's followed. There's plenty of hand-wringing about the pros and cons of investing elsewhere

I guess my concern is that if Pete wants to post stock tips but also to dictate what (if any) discussion there can be about those tips or investments generally, then it’s basically just a list of his hot tips, with any talk about risk relegated to ‘background reading’ on other threads or websites (or the disclaimer at the very start of the thread). Which is all fine, but given the frequency that the tips come this thread will end up becoming almost a sticky thread at the top of the recent posts list. I’m not sure how healthy that is on a general climbing forum.

Johnny Brown

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My apologies if I came across as dismissive, shouldn’t post before lunch. But what I find frustrating about such posts as the Breedlove one is that they are unnecessary. Economics (and I assume finance) is a pretty standardised field...

Anyhow, here are two divergent views of Bitcoin, one from Bloomberg writer Noah Smith, the other from economist Nouriel Roubini. I lean more to the later than the former, but I found Smith’s argument worth reading. Your position will probably be the exact opposite!

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/triumph-of-the-hodlers

https://www.ft.com/content/9be5ad05-b17a-4449-807b-5dbcb5ef8170

Appreciate the more considered reply, thanks.

Yeah the Noah one seems reasonable, but I'm afraid for Roubini I've already read my 2 free FT articles this month. Googling the title brings up some stuff hacked together from pull-quotes, mostly well-known issues (bitcoin is power-hungry and transactions are painfully slow) that could be assumed to apply to cryptos more generally, but actually don't. I don't share the likes of Breedlove's faith that Bitcoin will persevere - yes, in theory it's open-source, editable nature should allow it to maintain that first-mover advantage, but I think it's more likely the above problems plus 'don't mess with the winning formula' inertia will see it suddenly overtaken. And I'm not that interested in the digital gold aspect of cryptos either, although it's worth noting that while it may have limited advantages in a liberal democracy with a stable currency, it is more compelling in the context that less than 20% of the world live under such conditions, whereas worldwide smartphone ownership is nearly 50% and rising fast.

I'm more interested in the application of Blockchain technology to provide specific services - like solar panels trading with the grid. There may well be a big shakedown in cryptos but I cannot seeing blockchains disappearing. The tech may well end up just subsumed into a lower layer of the financial system but I think some tokens will have sufficiently broad application to accrue some intrinsic value.
 
I shared the Breedlove article because the usual question I've had on bitcoin is just 'yeah but I don't see how can it be money?' from folk who have never stopped to think why they accept £notes as money. I've not seen a similarly accessible overview that would answer that basic question. But that the only response being a critique from an economist is exactly why UKB is great.

Adam ive absolutely no problem with you disagreeing with me. Although the critique of my comments and the assumption that im wrong because I dont understand is really tiresome.

Sorry, I was a bit flippant initially because I'd assumed you were someone else. But your argument has hardly got beyond the level of arm-waving dismissal (which could be interpreted as equally patronising). Maybe you are right though, it depends on your definition of investment I suppose. I'd agree much is at the speculative end, just not equivalent to betting on horses. The barriers to entry of just buying anything but the most mainstream cryptos would seem to put off dabblers.

petejh

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On risk I just don't get why your latest sure thing isn't already priced in on that share price unless you have insider information. How do you research something many others can't. I know clever people who gave up ordinary work and trade successfully for a living ....they would never promote stuff the way you do and they sweat the risk a bit as with leverage and very bad luck it could be their home on the line.

History has shown the big players can and do play dirty but their main advantage is much more mundane they can have nano second options running constantly to maximise gain and subsequent super fast escape routes on any sudden downturn.

If this is really the level of your understanding about the level of research possible for a private investor, yet you insist on posting here with your tone of pessimistic disapproval and moralising, then you're just not worth engaging with. I've no requirement or desire to waste my time explaining how I can carry out proper research, to someone who apparently doesn't want to learn about this topic and who is seemingly unwilling to believe I could possibly know anything about it anyway!

I've really no idea why you're engaging with this thread. If you want to learn something new then read with an open mind - don't make (incorrect) assertions and dress them up as questions. And don't drop in *strawmen like you're trying to engage in a debate, the point of this thread isn't to debate. If have some research to contribute about a possible investment, share it. If you don't like the topic then politely fuck off.
If you have a specific point about the ethics of a specific company, perhaps share it but understand your entire modern way of life is built on questionable ethics - the tin used to glue together the circuit boards in your laptop, desktop, phone etc. will have most likely come from either Mayanmar, Congo, China or Latin America. I mean, you could do something concrete rather than sit moralising away on threads you have no real enthusiasm for - by investing in 'clean' tin via CUSN.. one of the two of us is at least putting our money where our mouth is.
 
* 'sure thing' = strawman, sure things don't exist and nobody’s suggested them. Sums up your contributions.. why bother to engage with someone wanting to debate and using strawman arguments, in a thread supposedly about the black and white activity of research and choosing to invest or not.





 
« Last Edit: April 05, 2021, 01:29:19 pm by petejh »

kac

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Cheers Adam. Yes I accept I have used a narrow definition of an investment - I told my other half it was an investment letting me build a wall in the garage. I just agree with Ali k's comments really. There are risks when investing and my primary return on my wall is a fucked shoulder. Pete you are surely better than that last post.

Johnny Brown

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Quote
There are risks when investing and my primary return on my wall is a fucked shoulder

 :lol:

petejh

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Bit of an update, I'll focus on companies in which I've recently invested.

Greatland Gold (in @1.5 & recently @18.5)
Broke out from it's recent downtrend over the last couple of days, technically looking strong for high 20s/low 30s. I'll be selling some if it hits the high 20s, likely to drop back here from sellers who bought into the last hype-fuelled rise at the high 20s/low 30s, bailing out to break even following the drop. Keeping a core holding for the long term as the deposit is a no-brainer. Short term trade & 2-5 year hold

Alphamin (in @ 0.57)
Released quarterly earnings last week, excellent results and the year ahead looking even better on the back of tin shortage and exploration upside at Mpana south. Very positive, debt free by summer and even talk of a dividend. 2-5 years hold.
Hallgarten broker upgraded their 12-month price target to 0.80 on April 6th. https://alphaminresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Alphamin_April21_Update_2.pdf
Good overview on the investment case here on value investor: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ALPHAMIN_RESOURCES_CORP/4744168116

Filo Mining (in @ 2.98 & 3.50)
Got in the day before drill results were reported. Excellent results! Many more assays to report over the coming 6 months. Very happy about the growth prospects of the Filo de la Sol prospect. 6-12 months hold.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/filo-mining-reports-942m-at-0-67-cueq-extends-the-deposit-1-000m-to-the-north-801298452.html

Meridian Mining ( in @ 0.45)
Got in on the back of xrf results  of drill core showing very high grades at their Cabacal project (unusual approach to report xrf grades and a bit frowned upon). Awaiting assays back from the lab to confirm - should be late April/early May, but looking good here to grow into a large VMS project. Pretty excited about this project, which is one of a few win the last couple of years following the narrative of 'old mine that was uneconomic and forgotten about, being re-explored based on today's and future prices of copper/gold'. Good outline here: https://twitter.com/MeridianMining/status/1382773725876080641?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
6-12 months hold.

Centaurus Metals (in @ 0.78)
Released a very positive scoping study for their Jaguar nickel deposit recently which the market sold into, price slowly floating back up. 2-5 years hold.

KEFI mining (in @ 0.23)
Took a punt on this one the day after it broke long term resistance on expectations of a positive decision on funding for it's project in Ethiopa. Announcement yesterday that funding decision delayed until June. Holding pattern, sell on news.

Cornish Metals (in @ 0.10)
Drilling commenced in early April at their United Downs project to confirm historic high grade tin. Results expected May/June. Company received permit to dewater South Crofty, plus other related permits for surface infrastructure. Very much dependant on United Downs confirming the historic high grade tin grades. Could do very well on the momentum behind tin. Hold until assays then decide.

Trackwise (in @ 2.60)
Won £38m contract last year to supply their printed witing harness technology to Arrival - the EV bus and van manufacturer who are setting up a manufacturing facility in the UK (and elsewhere globally) this year. Raised £11 million last November to quadruple production of its IHT wiring harness by Q4 this year. Various rumours circulating of an aerospace and/or medical contract, plus increase in size of the EV contract. 2-5 year hold

Ilika (in @ 2.15)
Announced they'd won a £250,000 grant from the advanced propulsion centre, to collaborate with Comau to tool up a large-scale manufacturing line, using the UK's Battery Industrialising Centre facility to produce their Goliath solid state battery at scale.
Good little Q&A here regarding the plan: https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/ilika-qa-continuing-to-improve-goliath-technology-and-scaling-up-with-the-apc-grant-lonika/412976816
Berenberg appointed as broker last week, issued their price target of £3.20 (paywalled)
Various positive news around battery production and EVs, very hot sector at the moment. This FT article for e.g.  https://www.ft.com/content/c4e075b8-7289-4756-9bfe-60bf50f0cf66
2-5 year hold.


Copper the new oil apparently..

« Last Edit: April 15, 2021, 10:37:02 pm by petejh »

Fultonius

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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?


petejh

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I've noticed a few articles about this year but haven't done any research beyond the articles. Have also heard rumours of aluminium companies looking good this year but again haven't done any research at all. If you find a good one let us all know! (after buying in lower obvs..) 

The whole battery EV sector is so hot right now, a lot of pressure to increase range, decrease weight, and decrease charging times. Whoever comes out on top with viable solutions are going to do very well. For e.g. Tesla keep talking about increasing the range of the vehicles, but it's reliant on a solid state (or other, maybe alu?) battery becoming viable because they're almost at the ceiling of increasing their range using lithium-ion due to the extra weight meaning marginal gains and the size taking up too much of the vehicle. Already around 30kg of nickel alone in a Tesla battery. Whole battery weighs ~500kg for a 'long range' version (350 miles). 
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/25/is-nickel-the-new-gold-tesla-ceo-elon-musks-comments-inspire-interest-in-nickel/
« Last Edit: April 16, 2021, 03:34:49 pm by petejh »

petejh

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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?

Still haven't researched the alu batteries, but on aluminium in general I read this today on a couple of commodities investors' feeds:
 





Useful overview by Mark Thompson of where we are on the commodities investment cycle:

Fultonius

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Crypto - wonder why Ethereum Classic is rocketing?  It's got no real use, no prospect of ETH 2.0 Proof of Stake. Just bandwagonism?

I've recently just got back on the cypto-train. More diversified than last time. Happened to put some into ETC as it seem to be on the up, now up 108% in the last 24 hours.

I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.

Going to keep a small about of ETH and BTC for long shots, and do a bit of arbitrage on the other smaller things. Might take a few punts on some things that sound like they have some genuine future utility (Celo etc.)

remus

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Nothing useful to add, but your post reminded me I bought some ethereum about a year ago so had a quick look at my crypto wallet and realised I've made a 1450% gain on it :lol: The initial purchase wasn't any serious money though so sadly retirement is still a way off.

Fultonius

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Nothing useful to add, but your post reminded me I bought some ethereum about a year ago so had a quick look at my crypto wallet and realised I've made a 1450% gain on it :lol: The initial purchase wasn't any serious money though so sadly retirement is still a way off.

 :dance1: :dance1:

CrimpyMcCrimpface

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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking). 

Coops_13

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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).
Yup, I just sold my ETH (nice gains to help with house down payment in not too distant future) and have it safely in USDC earning a steady 8.6%. Gimme a shout if anyone wants a Blockfi referral code  ;D

JohnM

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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).
Yup, I just sold my ETH (nice gains to help with house down payment in not too distant future) and have it safely in USDC earning a steady 8.6%. Gimme a shout if anyone wants a Blockfi referral code  ;D

Did you buy the ETH this year? You get stung for CGT if you buy and sell within the same year don't you?

Johnny Brown

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I didn't think it mattered what year you sell in? Capital Gains Allowance is £12,300 though, so you need to be making a lot before you have to pay it.

JohnM

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I didn't think it mattered what year you sell in? Capital Gains Allowance is £12,300 though, so you need to be making a lot before you have to pay it.

I was thinking more in the US. I thought he was US-based.

sdm

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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).

I would be extremely wary of holding anything in USDT:
1) Tether consistently refuses third party audits for its backing. It was reviewed three years ago (I think this was the closest they ever came to a full audit) when they only had backing for 74% of their minted coins.
2) Some of its senior personnel have rather worrying rap sheets.
3) They severed ties with their previous reserve bank and moved to an offshore reserve bank after their previous bank refused to confirm existence of the $1.8bn supposedly held there in reserve. A primary school level fake letter then appeared on social media supposedly from the bank confirming the reserves exist.
4) There are unresolved issues about how their bitfinex debt was paid. One hopes this was not paid from the reserves...

I'll use USDT for a few minutes/hours for a trade because it has higher liquidity than the other stable coins for most pairings. For anything longer term, I wouldn't touch it.

At least USDC and BUSD are regularly audited by a third party and are confirmed to be 100% backed, although Binance's shadiness is another concern.

petejh

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The CGT in the US is I think 20% for average earners, same as the UK. The US tax system looks complicated as hell. Biden talking about a massive increase in cgt for the wealthiest. Doesn't matter what year you buy/sell, any gain over the personal allowance is taxable. Any losses within 3 years offset any gains. The way to avoid cgt in the UK is to trade everything you can within an ISA up to £20k per year (or don't make any profit from trades in non-ISA accounts..).
US cgt plans:  https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/biden-capital-gains-tax-plan/


I don't trade cryptos themselves for a couple of reasons - faff with wallets, I simply don't trust some of the players involved in the platforms (see above from sdm), but most pertinently I don't want to pay CGT on any gains, nor any transaction fees for converting crypto to sterling. So I just trade the crypto miners on the stock market. That way I can trade the price of bitcoin within my ISA and keep any gains tax-free. ARB is my short-term trade for getting in/out of bitcoin (currently out). It's not a perfect correlation to BTC's performance but I returned 300% on ARB from BTC's rise in February.
How to trade crypto without paying cgt: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/how-add-bitcoin-isa-profit-tax-free/


Coops_13

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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).
Yup, I just sold my ETH (nice gains to help with house down payment in not too distant future) and have it safely in USDC earning a steady 8.6%. Gimme a shout if anyone wants a Blockfi referral code  ;D

Did you buy the ETH this year? You get stung for CGT if you buy and sell within the same year don't you?
If you hold for over a year (like my ETH) then it will be long term capital gains (0%, 15% or 20% dependent on income). If under a year (like my other crypto - not sold yet), then it's taxed like income - marginal rates + state + social + medicare...

No free lunch like in the UK... GUSD is another stablecoin that is 100% backed

36chambers

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I don't trade cryptos themselves for a couple of reasons - faff with wallets

If anyone's looking into storing crypto in a hardware wallet (rather than on Coinbase, or wherever) I highly recommend the Ledger Nano S https://shop.ledger.com/products/ledger-nano-s

I use it alongside their desktop app (Ledger Live) which allows you to easily transfer crypto after you've plugged in the Nano and entered a pin.

They currently cost £54.50, so not super cheap, but well worth it for piece of mind and if you're thinking of holding long term.

CrimpyMcCrimpface

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I've never really been too concerned about the tether controversy but i'll consider it thanks for the points.

I understand you can trade tax neutral if you take profits into a SIPP, as the gov gives you 20% on deposits. A friend of mine does this. Most SIPP providers are exchanges too so you can run profits back into other investments. SIPPs do have service charge and you can't drawdown until 55 but it all depends on your time horizon.

Fultonius

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Nothing useful to add, but your post reminded me I bought some ethereum about a year ago so had a quick look at my crypto wallet and realised I've made a 1450% gain on it :lol: The initial purchase wasn't any serious money though so sadly retirement is still a way off.

 :dance1: :dance1:

P.S.  Re-read a lot of this thread this morning and yesterday - should have listened to Pete / NorthStar back in Feb about Ether. Realise we're now in the tail end of the current run so a risky time to be catching ups.

ETH : 


^These arcs, is the idea that once they're done all bets are off, or is the expectation that it will follow the channel onwards?


Is it more likely it'll cool off and start a new arc?

[obviously, ignoring the fact this is mainly tea-leaf reading...but still...]

Fultonius

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I'm a bit frustrated with myself looking at the terrible growth of my two previous workplace pensions over the last 10 years. But, as Habrich etc. said before - it's not really a "good" time to be getting into this at the top of the market with all the QE pumping things up.

Either way, I've amalgamated both my old pensions into a SIPP and I'm now researching the best mix to satisfy my leanings and aims. It's all very long term (I'm 38) but it doesn't make sense to put it into anything right now that might take a big plunge. Just aiming for a mix of steady funds around the globe without too much exposure to US Tech. Wondering about some bonds (10% ish). There seem to be some interesting things in the world of Climate Investment Bonds which I'm reading up on now. https://www.climatebonds.net/

 

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