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'Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip'.. The Investor's Thread (Read 133062 times)

AJM

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That's a nice uptick (although slightly bittersweet in that I had been mucking and aahing about buying some more in the recent dip).

Fultonius

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It's always hard to tell when to do it. I thought I'd missed up in the summer on Filo but it's come good in the long game.

Not got much in Adriatic, so I'll just sit on that for a while (tempting to take the 30% gains, but I'm not no need of cash right now)

petejh

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That's a nice uptick (although slightly bittersweet in that I had been mucking and aahing about buying some more in the recent dip).

You might get a pullback opportunity following a significant rapid rise like that. Price is now 'overbought' on daily timescale 'rsi' indicator. So could be due a stall or fall back a bit.

Common levels for a pull-back entry can be estimated if you overlay a fibonacci retracement* scale over the entirety of the recent move - from the low at £1.47 to today's high at £2.14.
Then look at what the share price corresponds to at the levels 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786. Those numbers are the % of retracement of the prior move, and they're often levels at which price bounces. Whether this is for any fundamental reason or whether it's due to tea-leavery creating its own feedback loop in the market is impossible to say, and doesn't really matter as long as you understand that.
(The 0.5 isn't a fibonacci number, just a 50% retracement of the move).
It's very common for price to pull back to the 0.23 or 0.382 levels, deeper pullbacks to the 50%, 0.618 or .786. Knowing for sure which level it'll bounce off is impossible but the levels are useful for putting price action in context, and can be used in combination with other indicators showing when price is over-sold or momentum turning (the RSI and MACD indicators), as well as combining with knowledge of upcoming catalyst events/knowledge of the company.

I've put an example of the fib retracement levels below, for Adriatic's recent move up. Will be able to see if it bounces off any of those levels (if it doesn't keep motoring).

Another common price behaviour following breakout through a resistance level is for price to retest the resistance level from above, and bounce off it as support. In this case that's the 'neckline'. But would be a v.deep pullback.

A final common behaviour following a strong rapid rise is to form a 'bull flag' pattern. (see Adriatic in Oct-Nov 2022). If ADT's price were to goes sideways from here but hold the level of today's close, then it may be continuation pattern and if it confirms (by breakout of sideways range) you can estimate a repeat rise in %-terms of the previous rise. Usually within 2 weeks or it peters out into sideways ranging.

I don't recommend chasing spikes up, until either a bull-flag has formed and then confirmed by breaking out, or if price falls back to a fib level in combo with having good knowledge about the company's prospects. Just buying a sharp rise in the hopes it continues means the risk/reward ratio has probably just changed to a much less favorable ratio. Price is likely to pull back at some point, if it doesn't (and you don't see/act on a breakout of a bull-flag) consider it an opportunity missed. Will always be others.



* nerd point, the retracement % levels of .236, .382, .618, .786 etc. correspond to the ratio of a number to the next number (or 2nd-next, 3rd-next etc.) in the fibonacci sequence: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144, into infinity.
The same place that the 'golden ratio' in nature (of .618 or 1.618) comes from.
89/144 = 0.618
55/144 = 0.382
35/144 = 0.236

The ratios start off not that, but as the sequence increases the ratio tightens up.
(.786 level = square root of 618, dunno why it matters)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp#:~:text=However%2C%20Fibonacci%20did%20not%20create,between%20450%20and%20200%20BCE.

« Last Edit: December 28, 2023, 08:07:18 pm by petejh »

Rocksteady

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Various shares in my areas of interest are breaking down below long-term support lines as the financial sector fallout continues. I opened a (tiny, 0.025%) position in bitcoin miner Argo Blockchain two days ago on a combination of technical signals that suggest a turnaround. My sell target is 32p.


Pete just a note - I looked into Argo at the time you mentioned this and bought in at 14p. Small investment but made 100% return, sold out the other week at 28p. It was a bumpy ride but good outcome in the end - hope you got a good return from this also.

petejh

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Nice one  :thumbsup:  :strongbench:

I'd only entered it as a days to weeks time-frame speculation on the direction of BTC, and hadn't meant it as a 6 month trade so well done for hanging on through the trough. I sold 2 weeks after entering, for a 20% loss. Only 20% of a 0.025% position so a 0.05% loss to my book!


You'll be pleased with NGEX no doubt. Plenty more to come still.

Adriatic start production tomorrow. Big day. They really do fly under the radar. I'm expecting that to change this year if they achieve ramp-up to the production level stated in the feasibility study.

Fultonius

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Saw an article about mineral prices tanking? Oversupply? Seemed to be more about lithium etc. Filo and Adriatic don't seem too bothered by it.

Let's see what happens tomorrow.

My LONGLONGLOOONG term Etherium HODL is slowly creeping back up towards breakeven  :lol:

petejh

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Nickel and lithium have tanked over the last 12 months (palladium too, I've zero interest in palladium).

Copper/gold/silver are doing well (Filo/Ngex are copper/gold/silver deposits)

Nickel is a very interesting one, which I think we'll maybe start to hear about years from now as a pollution disaster.
Indonesia, with Chinese funding and technical support, recently cracked how to produce class 1 nickel from nickel laterite using a method known as high pressure acid leaching. This had not been possible until very recently despite some other companies trying unsuccessfully over many years.

Consequently Indonesian nickel has been swamping the global market over last 12 months, hence the price drop. But their method is very heavily polluting (and also benefits from cheap coal-powered electricity generation). The issue is the waste produced and how to store it safely, compared to the other ways of producing nickel. We're all using Indonesian nickel in our cheap batteries and in our cheap stainless steel, manufactured with coal power, and the western nickel producers are pissed off that the metals markets which the car-makers and steel manufactures operate within gives no green premium for 'clean' nickel.

It's relative, still a big hole in the ground but class 1 nickel from an Australian or Brazilian nickel sulfide deposit is way less polluting than Indonesian nickel using HPAL, from a nickel laterite deposit. Does anyone in the west care enough to demand metal markets put a price premium on the dirty nickel? We'll find out.. By then much of the western nickel production may have closed down because it's too high on the cost curve - as has just happened at Wyloo's Australian nickel operations which shut don this week. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/forrest-shuts-wa-mines-as-nickel-dominoes-tumble-20240121-p5eyvo
Australian miners are frustrated with the LME’s refusal to create a “green” category within its class 1 nickel pricing structure, and identify the potential for rival exchanges to seize on this and the LME’s own historic nickel woes.

The Forrest camp is hopeful UK-based Global Commodities Holdings will emerge as an LME challenger, as well as Singapore-based ABAXX and the CME Group, the world’s biggest derivatives exchange.

“The LME is awash with pollutive nickel, which is squeezing out clean nickel from Australian producers,” Wyloo chief executive Luca Giacovazzi said on Sunday.


I'd encourage anyone interested in a basic overview of clean versus dirty nickel to have a read of the above article (bearing in mind its a biased (but correct afaik) view by an Australian company in an Australian business paper)

A more technical explainer here from woodmac on how Indonesia has cracked using high pressure acid leaching to produce nickel: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/rise-of-indonesian-hpal/

This might be like cobalt, which will work it's way through the public consciousness over years until eventually the average member of the public one day will associate nickel with 'bad things' as they do cobalt, because they read something in the daily mail or heard something on R4. By which time we'll be a very long way down the road (literally in our EV's), and Indonesia will have fucked it's coastal environment.

It does make me roll my eyes/laugh/weep that average public in the west have no care to be a little bit more curious about what lies behind the affordability of their cars/machines/buildings/consumables.  No western car company is going to rock the boat unless one (or better multiple) governments demand it, and no government is going to rock the boat unless large swathes of the public demand it. Willful ignorance.

Centuras Metals (Brazialian nickel sulfide development project, powered by hydro-generated power) are a steal at current price, tanking due to the nickel price sentiment. I'm not invested as I sold for a big gain above $1.

I am invested in Premium Nickel but that's a different play, all about potential discovery of a huge underground deposit beneath historic mine workings i.e. an exploration play but with lots of juice due to the infrastructure already being in place from the historic mine (quick/easy buyout, low development cost relative to asset). Assuming their drilling confirms what looks like a huge nickel/copper/cobalt deposit beneath the historic workings, and I obviously think it will.

Lithium I haven't bothered following the reasoning, it'll come back. Cyclical markets doing what they do.


* btw you can easily track LME spot and 3-month futures for ferrous and non-ferrous metals here:  https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Non-ferrous
« Last Edit: January 23, 2024, 06:24:51 pm by petejh »

AndyR

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Lithium I haven't bothered following the reasoning, it'll come back. Cyclical markets doing what they do.


* btw you can easily track LME spot and 3-month futures for ferrous and non-ferrous metals here:  https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Non-ferrous
Evolving lithium contracting strategies, overzealous destocking, absence of a robust futures or hedging market with a strong dose of market manipulation in China. But also exactly what you said as well!

teestub

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Thanks for posting Pete, be really interesting to see how this plays out. Seems like for the EV market where generally people are looking to be environmentally aware, the green credentials of the raw materials should be easy to bring into play.

Is there any currently any market differentiation in oil or other raw products between production with high ESG production vs ‘dirtier’ producers?

matt463

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Thanks for posting Pete, be really interesting to see how this plays out. Seems like for the EV market where generally people are looking to be environmentally aware, the green credentials of the raw materials should be easy to bring into play.

Is there any currently any market differentiation in oil or other raw products between production with high ESG production vs ‘dirtier’ producers?

Most of the differentiation tends to happen around periods of ‘high concern’, natural disasters and political commitments to engage in green policy etc. Then you get a premium on ‘green’ stocks. Not sure how persistent that is

petejh

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Thanks for posting Pete, be really interesting to see how this plays out. Seems like for the EV market where generally people are looking to be environmentally aware, the green credentials of the raw materials should be easy to bring into play.

Long answer which would involve a rant, so I'll desist. Short version: Just, no! In an ideal world, yes. But that isn't how people are incentivised to purchase products in the real world, and it isn't how the world works. Unfortunately.


Is there any currently any market differentiation in oil or other raw products between production with high ESG production vs ‘dirtier’ producers?
Trade in tungsten, tin, tantalum and gold is regulated by conflict metals regulations which 'only' came in 2012 (came into frce in 2021 in the EU). See here (US): https://www.sec.gov/opa/Article/2012-2012-163htm---related-materials.html
And here (EU): https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/development-and-sustainability/conflict-minerals-regulation/regulation-explained_en

So it's possible (but definitely not easy!)


Not for oil. But again there should be. In a world where we were all rational beings, interested in emissions more than feeling good and optics to our peers.

Carbon intensity of a megajoule of oil across all oil-producing nations. Mathematical challenge: in a world of continued oil demand 'x' (i.e. reality), solve for how to most efficiently reduce emissions of co2 equiv while keeping oil at output 'y'. 
(tldr, don't slash production from the nations at high production levels with lower-intensity carbon emissions)


Country   grams of CO2eq/MJ Co-product displacement    5%ile error bar   95%ile error bar   grams of CO2eq/MJ Allocation by energy   Number of fields

Syria   29.8   25.1   45.5   29.8   30
Democratic Republic of Congo   29.2   21.4   39.2   29.2   13
Uzbekistan   27.4   20.1   39.0   26.4   35
Yemen   26.9   21.4   37.8   23.7   25
Albania   23.7   13.3   39.7   22.7   6
Algeria   20.3   17.7   30.3   20.1   93
Venezuela   20.3   15.0   31.9   19.9   251
Myanmar   20.2   14.4   49.4   19.0   15
Cameroon   18.4   15.0   26.7   18.1   48
Canada   17.6   15.6   22.3   17.7   84
Iran   17.1   14.0   23.1   17.4   79
Turkmenistan   15.9   12.3   22.8   16.8   24
Tunisia   15.4   13.7   25.2   15.3   52
Indonesia   15.3   12.0   82.5   15.1   482
Georgia   15.2   10.5   23.5   15.0   11
Sudan   14.9   11.1   22.2   14.8   40
Mauritania   14.8   12.3   20.3   14.8   1
Trinidad and Tobago   14.3   9.9   27.0   14.4   63
Iraq   14.1   13.1   18.5   14.0   46
Gabon   13.2   11.2   20.6   13.1   69
Malaysia   12.9   10.5   19.4   12.8   79
Nigeria   12.6   11.3   16.6   12.4   207
Pakistan   12.2   11.2   23.0   12.0   63
Ukraine   11.8   10.4   24.0   11.9   127
Oman   11.7   10.4   20.2   11.7   138
Philippines   11.6   6.4   16.1   11.5   3
Niger   11.3   8.3   17.1   11.5   3
United States   11.3   9.1   17.3   11.3   824
Chile   11.2   10.0   24.0   11.2   15
Libya   11.0   8.7   19.4   11.2   34
Peru   10.9   7.1   25.8   11.1   50
Republic of Congo   10.6   7.6   15.4   10.6   42
Egypt   10.6   8.7   17.7   10.6   351
Brazil   10.3   7.3   13.2   10.5   267
Chad   10.2   8.1   17.2   10.2   13
Mexico   9.9   6.9   11.2   9.9   204
Guatemala   9.8   6.8   16.2   9.8   7
Lithuania   9.7   8.0   23.1   9.8   15
Russian Federation   9.7   8.5   17.0   9.7   1688
Kazakhstan   9.7   8.2   16.8   9.7   190
Kyrgyzstan   9.4   7.1   35.8   9.5   10
Tajikistan   9.4   6.7   17.5   9.5   11
Morocco   9.3   7.8   19.4   9.5   2
Ecuador   9.3   7.2   16.7   9.5   123
Barbados   9.3   8.2   20.5   9.5   5
Argentina   9.1   6.8   20.2   9.4   232
Australia   9.1   8.0   16.2   9.4   202
Cuba   9.0   7.5   17.9   9.2   18
Bolivia   9.0   4.9   17.6   9.2   4
Latvia   8.9   7.8   16.8   9.2   1
Vietnam   8.8   7.5   12.9   9.2   33
Belize   8.8   8.1   18.6   9.0   1
Bulgaria   8.6   7.4   25.5   9.0   10
India   8.6   7.0   16.0   8.9   179
Papua New Guinea   8.5   7.8   17.7   8.9   8
Turkey   8.4   6.7   16.7   8.9   117
Colombia   8.3   5.9   15.9   8.8   364
Afghanistan   8.3   6.9   16.6   8.7   2
Suriname   8.2   6.4   14.6   8.5   3
Poland   8.2   6.9   19.3   8.5   44
New Zealand   8.2   4.5   12.6   8.4   15
United Kingdom   7.9   7.4   10.7   8.3   182
Hungary   7.9   6.7   19.8   8.3   62
Croatia   7.8   6.8   17.6   8.3   38
Germany   7.7   5.7   15.3   8.2   51
Japan   7.7   6.2   21.2   8.2   15
Serbia   7.7   6.5   19.2   8.2   30
Austria   7.6   5.9   21.3   8.0   38
France   7.5   5.3   17.3   7.8   63
Angola   7.5   6.6   14.1   7.8   78
Romania   7.4   6.3   21.6   7.7   210
United Arab Emirates   7.1   5.7   14.9   7.5   27
China   7.0   5.6   14.0   7.2   619
Kuwait   6.9   5.9   13.9   7.1   18
Qatar   6.5   6.0   10.8   7.0   12
Equatorial Guinea   6.4   4.5   9.4   6.8   13
Jordan   6.3   5.8   14.7   6.8   1
Azerbaijan   6.3   4.9   9.4   6.8   44
Cote d'Ivoire   6.1   5.8   9.1   6.7   3
Italy   6.1   5.5   13.9   6.7   22
Greece   5.9   5.4   10.4   6.6   2
Brunei   5.7   3.7   12.5   6.4   18
Norway   5.6   4.8   10.8   6.4   120
Ghana   5.2   4.4   7.4   6.0   2
Thailand   5.1   3.8   11.4   5.9   56
Bahrain   5.0   4.8   10.1   5.3   1
Saudi Arabia   4.6   4.4   6.6   5.1   33
Spain   4.1   3.7   11.4   5.0   6
Netherlands   3.9   3.4   9.7   4.9   16
Denmark   3.3   3.1   7.0   4.9   15



* from: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aar6859
Comment here: https://news.stanford.edu/2018/08/30/measuring-crude-oils-carbon-footprint/
« Last Edit: January 24, 2024, 11:29:27 am by petejh »

teestub

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Thanks Pete, some interesting data, I guess the ‘S’ of ESG has to be a factor too.

Interested in you expending your thoughts on the below, but understand if you don’t want to. We have a drive for ethical consumption in food and clothing for example, so if a western car manufacturer could use their ‘cleaner’ raw materials to differentiate their £40k EV from the £20k ones about to come out of china, it seems like you could sway some people?



Long answer which would involve a rant, so I'll desist. Short version: Just, no! In an ideal world, yes. But that isn't how people are incentivised to purchase products in the real world, and it isn't how the world works. Unfortunately.


petejh

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Nickel and lithium have tanked over the last 12 months (palladium too, I've zero interest in palladium).

Copper/gold/silver are doing well (Filo/Ngex are copper/gold/silver deposits)

Nickel is a very interesting one, which I think we'll maybe start to hear about years from now as a pollution disaster.
Indonesia, with Chinese funding and technical support, recently cracked how to produce class 1 nickel from nickel laterite using a method known as high pressure acid leaching. This had not been possible until very recently despite some other companies trying unsuccessfully over many years.

Consequently Indonesian nickel has been swamping the global market over last 12 months, hence the price drop. But their method is very heavily polluting (and also benefits from cheap coal-powered electricity generation). The issue is the waste produced and how to store it safely, compared to the other ways of producing nickel. We're all using Indonesian nickel in our cheap batteries and in our cheap stainless steel, manufactured with coal power, and the western nickel producers are pissed off that the metals markets which the car-makers and steel manufactures operate within gives no green premium for 'clean' nickel.

It's relative, still a big hole in the ground but class 1 nickel from an Australian or Brazilian nickel sulfide deposit is way less polluting than Indonesian nickel using HPAL, from a nickel laterite deposit. Does anyone in the west care enough to demand metal markets put a price premium on the dirty nickel? We'll find out.. By then much of the western nickel production may have closed down because it's too high on the cost curve - as has just happened at Wyloo's Australian nickel operations which shut don this week. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/forrest-shuts-wa-mines-as-nickel-dominoes-tumble-20240121-p5eyvo
Australian miners are frustrated with the LME’s refusal to create a “green” category within its class 1 nickel pricing structure, and identify the potential for rival exchanges to seize on this and the LME’s own historic nickel woes.

The Forrest camp is hopeful UK-based Global Commodities Holdings will emerge as an LME challenger, as well as Singapore-based ABAXX and the CME Group, the world’s biggest derivatives exchange.

“The LME is awash with pollutive nickel, which is squeezing out clean nickel from Australian producers,” Wyloo chief executive Luca Giacovazzi said on Sunday.


I'd encourage anyone interested in a basic overview of clean versus dirty nickel to have a read of the above article (bearing in mind its a biased (but correct afaik) view by an Australian company in an Australian business paper)

A more technical explainer here from woodmac on how Indonesia has cracked using high pressure acid leaching to produce nickel: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/rise-of-indonesian-hpal/

This might be like cobalt, which will work it's way through the public consciousness over years until eventually the average member of the public one day will associate nickel with 'bad things' as they do cobalt, because they read something in the daily mail or heard something on R4. By which time we'll be a very long way down the road (literally in our EV's), and Indonesia will have fucked it's coastal environment.

It does make me roll my eyes/laugh/weep that average public in the west have no care to be a little bit more curious about what lies behind the affordability of their cars/machines/buildings/consumables.  No western car company is going to rock the boat unless one (or better multiple) governments demand it, and no government is going to rock the boat unless large swathes of the public demand it. Willful ignorance.

Centuras Metals (Brazialian nickel sulfide development project, powered by hydro-generated power) are a steal at current price, tanking due to the nickel price sentiment. I'm not invested as I sold for a big gain above $1.

I am invested in Premium Nickel but that's a different play, all about potential discovery of a huge underground deposit beneath historic mine workings i.e. an exploration play but with lots of juice due to the infrastructure already being in place from the historic mine (quick/easy buyout, low development cost relative to asset). Assuming their drilling confirms what looks like a huge nickel/copper/cobalt deposit beneath the historic workings, and I obviously think it will.

Lithium I haven't bothered following the reasoning, it'll come back. Cyclical markets doing what they do.


* btw you can easily track LME spot and 3-month futures for ferrous and non-ferrous metals here:  https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Non-ferrous


Following on from the above, good piece today in the FT about concerns. https://www.ft.com/content/dd9434b4-04e5-474d-85ff-7149f89efd19?shareType=nongift

This is essentially the bigger picture that has been developing for various commodities since a few years pre-Ukraine - pressure on the west via control of commodities. I think the west is concerned enough now about western nickel miners and development projects hitting the wall that a premium for more sustainable nickel (than Indonesia's) has legs. If it happens, watch companies like CTM and PNRL fly. (PNRL will anyway imo, as the questions are gradually getting answered about what lies under the old Selebi mine workings).

petejh

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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?

Looked at this some more. An Australian company called Graphene Manufacturing Group listed on the Toronto exchange  released news last week about their graphene aluminium-ion battery cells.. If they can scale this up it'd be very interesting. I've taken a small position, missed the recent big rise.

Overview: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2021/05/13/ev-range-breakthrough-as-new-aluminum-ion-battery-charges-60-times-faster-than-lithium-ion/?sh=1b401886d287

Interview and next steps to market: http://www.kereport.com/2021/05/14/gmg-graphene-manufacturing-group-recent-graphene-aluminum-ion-battery-performance-data-and-the-next-steps-to-get-the-batteries-into-the-market/

Video released today on 'cleanerwatt':

Links to more detailed information can be found on the CEO.ca  GMG board.. if you wade through the 'face-ripping' posts there are some links to good info.


Some exciting developments have been ongoing in the background for a few of my long term holds.

GMG,
Invested 5% of my pf in this between May - Nov 2021, have been sitting on this at a 70% loss since, as they progress their 2 main products through development stages towards commercialisation.
They've just reached commercialisation, and very soon first revenue, for their graphene air-con coating applied to heat exchangers/air con units. Roll-out in progress this month in the US. Awaiting final US EPA decision but looks a shoe-in (famous last words). Candian EPA equiv has been granted.
This propduct gives significant heat transfer gains (i.e. lower power useage - I might look into getting a trial pack to spray the heat exchanger if I get an air-source heat pump...).   
This gives them revenue while they progress the really exciting product - the graphene aluminium-ion battery. The pouch pack battery just reach 1000mAh as announced today. Repeatability and pouch cell production plant this year are the next steps. Followed by customer trials end-year into next year. I was initially dubious about GMG as their claims seemed too good to be true, but as time passed I became more willing to see this one through due to the management credentials (ex Shell natural gas senior management); track record of passing each development milestone pretty much in accordance with guidance; apparent superiority of the battery over lithium-ion for applications requiring high power density - diesel mining vehicles for e.g.; patent protection/moat around the technology (graphene produced by their method of cracking natural gas to extract the pure carbon, perforating this carbon at nano-scale with aluminium); attracting senior management from CATL; and collaborations with Rio Tinto, Wood Group and Bosch.
Worth a look for anyone interested in the new battery technologies coming through. The revenue from their graphene air-con coating is a bonus but they'll likely still need to raise capital to build the pouch cell production plant. Or get bought out (my assumption). Good price here, way better risk/reward than my entries.
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/gmgs-graphene-aluminium-ion-battery-1000-mah-capacity


Alphamin.
I've held a large position in AFM since 2021, bought at between 0.45c - 0.60c. It currently makes up around 20% of my pf. Sold a bit to pay towards my house, but holding the rest. I've already received around 20% of my initial investment back in divi's, plus 50% capital growth. Dividend for this spring is on hold as they allocated the capital to build the second mine (Mpana Sotuh).
They've now virtually completed the construction and commissioning of the second mine and processing facility at Biese. There isn't long to go until, if this is going to be successful, it really starts to motor again following a year-long wallowing around under a C$1. March start up, rapid ramp-up has been guided by management. The value for this company is barnstorming, see calcs below for free cash flow and EPS at different tin prices (not my work). If you can stomach the DRC risk then you will not find a better dividend+growth share on the market afaik.



PNRL
It's moving now. Anyone following this knows the potential. The story is a huge area of conductive plates from downhole EM surveys suggesting a huge volume of nickel sulfides beneath existing infrastructure of the Selebi mine in Botswana (a low risk mining jurisdiction). Drill results are beginning to prove up the theory, a lot of drill holes still to be released over next 12-18 months. Next 2 holes are hotly anticipated based on the visuals (beware that visuals alone never a great reason to invest). I hold PNRL since Aug 2022 for 2.5% of my pf. My average is C$2 so still sitting on a loss here. I categorise it as a Filo/NGEX-scale opportunity at current price. Not same certainty as those two but each new hole answers more questions. Interesting twist is the US government getting directly involved with supporting PNRL in background, if you dyor. I think the wider nickel market imploding due to Indonesia is irrelevant here for the time-being - it's a high growth discovery story not a development value story. Will become relevant in time, if nothing changes in the nickel market.


Risk higher-lower (imo):
GMG
PNRL
AFM
« Last Edit: February 06, 2024, 06:23:13 pm by petejh »

James Malloch

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I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.

Are there any low-risk investments which you can invest in via an S&S ISA? Fixed rate bonds etc? Or bigger companies paying a dividend which would be seen as fairly stable?

stone

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I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.

Are there any low-risk investments which you can invest in via an S&S ISA? Fixed rate bonds etc? Or bigger companies paying a dividend which would be seen as fairly stable?
I think it is worth giving this site a look https://portfoliocharts.com/
Yes you can both hold bonds and dividend paying stocks in a S&S ISA but it takes a small selection of holdings (as explained in the link) to get to something fairly stable in real terms.

petejh

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If the cash in your Hargreaves Lansdowne S&S ISA is from previous years ISA subscription then you can normally transfer it to your current cash ISA - check their T&C's but most allow it. I've done exactly this with some cash that was in my ii S&S ISA.

Current rates in cash ISA's aren't terrible, they're probably the best place for cash if you want low risk. You could fix at 5% for a year or 4.6% for 2 years.  Hard to better that with any 'low risk' investment.  https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/best-cash-isa/


If you want to keep your cash in your H&L ISA then a low-risk option for short-term cash is a money market fund. Look at the Royal London short term money market fund. It returned around 5% last 12 months. I've also used this fund for short-term cash holdings within my ii ISA. It tracks the overnight rate for interbank lending, so closely linked to interest rates.

Royal London money market fund: https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/r/royal-london-short-term-money-market-class-y-accumulation

Longer term, if low risk performance is your goal then I'd steer well clear of any investment funds suggested in that portfolio charts site, you'll lose money in fund costs once you start using multiple funds.. Not worth it for low risk 'cash-like' performance, but possibly a good shout for a long-term 'put it in and forget about it' if you choose 1 index tracker fund. If you want to do that just find the absolute cheapest global index tracker - you can get away with paying less than 0.2% in annual charges. This has all you need to know on index trackers: https://monevator.com/best-global-tracker-funds/
« Last Edit: February 20, 2024, 01:55:25 pm by petejh »

Bradders

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I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.

You can transfer money held in an existing ISA (cash or S&S) to another ISA (also cash or S&S) whenever you want, including to the cash ISA you opened this year or any other account (including opening a new one). It's not new money being credited to the account so won't affect your overall ISA sub limit.

RE your second question; the question to ask yourself first is what is your time horizon, i.e. what is that money for / when do you expect to want to use it?

As a for instance, if you have a very long time horizon (say 10 years plus), putting it into a low risk and therefore likely low return investment (or cash) will ultimately lose you money to inflation, especially at the moment.

If you think you're going to need it in the next 5 years, and you have a low tolerance to risk (i.e. if it went down in value and you then needed to access it and this caused you significant problems), well there are lots of cash savings options ATM which are near zero risk.

Edit: Pete beat me to it but I'd written it so posted anyway

James Malloch

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Thanks for the responses.

Unfortunately I can’t transfer the funds into my Halifax Cash ISA for some reason - it wasn’t clear exactly why on the phone with them, something about fund windows being closed. I’ve also used up my allowance for the year so can’t withdraw and put it elsewhere.

The Royal London money market fund looks like it could be good. Is it essentially paying a daily interest rate linked to the BoE rate?

I guess this is something that could be exited at any point?

It is for a relatively short term (maybe 18 months) until we may use it to pay off some of our mortgage depending on how rates are looking when we come to renew next year. At the moment it is just sat there being eroded by inflation, so anything “safe” is better than nothing at the moment.

petejh

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I think your person on the phone is probably wrong. You can transfer your old ISA cash to the Halifax ISA.

A money market fund is a fund that invests in short term (under a year) very liquid generally ‘safe’ assets like short term gov bonds. It’s almost as low risk as cash but a better return. You’d purchase units (just like buying shares) and the return you’d receive is generated via the price of the fund’s units increasing.
You can access your cash whenever you like by selling the units. So a more accessible way of generating a decent low-risk return than fixing in a savings account.

Sounds like you’re on the margin of the timescale where I’d consider fixing a 12-month interest rate in a cash-ISA savings account, thereby guaranteeing yourself just over 5% for 12 months.

The money market fund will return roughly around whatever the BoE interest rate averages out at over the next twelve months. Could be less than 5% if rates do begin to drop, could be more if inflation reignites and rates remain elevated.

« Last Edit: February 20, 2024, 03:25:51 pm by petejh »

James Malloch

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I think your person on the phone is probably wrong. You can transfer your old ISA cash to the Halifax ISA.

A money market fund is a fund that invests in short term (under a year) very liquid generally ‘safe’ assets like short term gov bonds. It’s almost as low risk as cash but a better return. You’d purchase units (just like buying shares) and the return you’d receive is generated via the price of the fund’s units increasing.

Sounds like you’re on the margin of the timescale where I’d consider fixing a 12-month interest rate in a cash-ISA savings account, thereby guaranteeing yourself just over 5% for 12 months.

The money market fund will return roughly around whatever the BoE interest rate averages out at over the next twelve months. Could be less than 5% if rates do begin to drop, could be more if inflation reignites and rates remain elevated.

I will try calling Halifax back and see what they say later on then, thanks. That ISA only has 5 months left of a 12 month fix at 5.5%, but I figured putting it in there would get me a decent chunk of interest before looking for a new deal in July on the combined amounts when it closes.

I think that as I opened this fixed rate one in late July, I wouldn’t be able to open another until April? Otherwise I would do as you say and get another 12m fix.

If Halifax for whatever reason won’t transfer it, then I will go for the money market fund. It seems an easy option for now. Even when rates start dropping it would be better to get a few months of growth at the current levels.

I’m guessing with the money market fund, if it were to give say 5% in the next 12 months, I could still withdraw it anytime before then and just take whatever growth it had seen up until that point?

petejh

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Riiight.. if your existing cash isa is a 12-month fixed rate (I didn’t know this) then it will likely will have had an initial funding window of x-weeks when you first opened the account. Once that window is passed you can’t add any more funds. That’s maybe what your person is talking about. So yeah if that’s the case you wouldn’t now be able to put any more cash into it.


Yes you can withdraw from a money market fund whenever you want. It’s just like selling a share whenever you want.


Bradders

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Riiight.. if your existing cash isa is a 12-month fixed rate (I didn’t know this) then it will likely will have had an initial funding window of x-weeks when you first opened the account. Once that window is passed you can’t add any more funds. That’s maybe what your person is talking about. So yeah if that’s the case you wouldn’t now be able to put any more cash into it.

Yes that'll be it. A fix is a fix so whilst the interest rate doesn't change, often with these the balance won't either.

However, that doesn't mean you can't open another cash ISA somewhere else. Again, if you have prior year ISA subscriptions sat somewhere you can move them wherever you want without affecting this year's headroom (and provided as above the receiving account accepts transfers).

James Malloch

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Cheers Pete/Nick, I appreciate the advice. I hadn’t realised that would make a difference - I’m a bit clueless when it comes to savings, I’ve always just had money in accounts making basically nothing. Decided it is about time to sort something out and start earning a bit from it!

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