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'Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip'.. The Investor's Thread (Read 113301 times)

petejh

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Update on Whitehaven Coal in case anyone's holding.

The share buyback scheme for FY 2022 ended last Friday (it actually has 1 more day to go, which will be October 27th). The share now goes into a 'blackout period' leading up to the AGM on Oct 26th, where no buybacks may take place. The black out period ends Oct 27th following AGM.

The total number of shares bought back and removed from the register was 101 million. Total shares on issue now approx. 930 million, down 10% from 1.03 billion at the start of 2022.

On Sept 21st they announced significant news with a resolution to buy back a further 25% of shares during FY 2023. This buyback starts Oct 27th following the AGM, pending voter approval (no brainer). This means shares on issue will reduce to 700 million by this time next year. Both on-market and off-market buybacks will take place. Off-market tender means some v.large buybacks can come at short notice.



Effect on SP for different total of shares on issue at different Newcastle coal prices can be seen in table below (not my work). Current price of Newc coal is $400/ton.




The assumptions used above are realistic and conservative. The below is from latest earnings report.






Meaning, this has now turned from the growth share of the year (+230% ytd) into a high yield play, with decent odds of some further growth (but the big growth gains have been made). One dividend payment last month returned 10% on original investment, plus growth. But that reflects a low buy-in price. The next 12 months of dividends should compare very well though.

The value proposition here is:
1. 25% of shares to be removed from issue over course of the next year, while profits for Q1 FY 2023 (i.e. now) and likely the whole of FY 2023 will be higher than the already record last quarter and FY 2022. The average sale price achieved for Newcastle coal in Q1 2023 was >$400/t, versus ~$200 for FY 2022.
2. The high average coal price looks to continue, although softening. With forward contracts out to end of 2022 currently $400 per/t.
3. Coal price estimates for next year currently remain above $300.
4. Long term coal price estimates recently have been revised up by Wood Mac and other analysts to a higher base of around $180 - $200 toward mid 2020s.   




Don't know what to expect between now and Oct 26th. Short term I won't be surprised to see some selling and price hovering in the 8s again. But there's to be a 'September Sales/Revenue & Production Report' released on Oct 19th which should provide some very supportive numbers. This is hardly a stable time and anything could happen. People are taking profits where they get them. A large insto could get interested in the value story and start buying sending price upward. Or global markets could blow up big time taking everything good/bad along for the ride until the good floats back to the top.
Fundamentally nothing much looks like it will change this winter regards energy supply. The world needs coal to produce electricity in the short to medium term (and for steel-making in the medium term), and is paying high prices because until there's a change to the sanctions with Russia and/or more alternatives come on line, coal is cheaper than gas. Any weakness in price here looks in my opinion like a good opportunity to return a very high yield over the next 12 months (£2,000 is tax-free allowance for dividends outside ISA).



kelvin

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And just like that, Whitehaven jumped another 6.57% after you posted. It seems relentless.

I took some profits around mid Sep and put them into BTU/Peabody, the first tranche at $22.66, then three further lots down as low as $19.56.
My Whitehaven position had grown bigger than I'm currently comfortable with and whilst I'd avoided BTU in the past, it does look like it's about to be swamped with FCF. Available cash on hand should be over 2 billion in less than three months, so big decisions to be made about buybacks or capital returns. Currently up over 27% in 19 days and my position is larger than Whitehaven, at about 8% of my portfolio.

I need to learn patience tho. I was having a rejig of the PF 'again' and sold KLXE for a 23% loss, I wasn't fully sold on the sector, and the next day it rose 30% and has rose ever since.
Did manage to sell VTNR for a profit before it dropped and to be honest, I might stay away now. Insider selling and just poor management decisions need to be taken seriously.
Elsewhere, bought some more Filo for CAD14.62, re-entered Serica (similar to the coal companies, their FCF is set to rocket) and also bought Copper Mountain on opening 28th Sept, before the wind got behind their sails after announcing a 57% increase in their resources. Up 25% on that one already.
Put a bit more money into Sandstorm Gold too.

Pete - wondering what your thoughts are on Greatland currently at 7.5p?

petejh

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Ah Greatland… what can I say.

Well they were a bargain at 1.5p which was my average price. I held 3.5m shares and sold 2/3rds in the 30s and high 20s and banked that profit. Kept hold of the last 1.2m shares and traded a bit between 18 selling back up to 22. Currently still holding 1.2m shares.

They were clearly overvalued in the 30s and I look at people on those chat forums who claim they held since 2018 and haven’t sold a share and think they’re absolutely insane. Basically they gave up a huge profit at a price the share will likely never see again.

Current price is perhaps a little low but not unfair given the dilution they had to take on to get the final financing over the line. Also the phase of development they’re currently at - pre DFS.

DFS comes out anytime between tomorrow and Dec 31st. Talk is November. Once that’s out it moves them along a notch on the ‘derisk’ pathway. More institutional buyers can get involved post DFS, should they wish.

They’re currently sitting around 0.65 x NPV based on Sprott’s fully funded/fully diluted estimated NPV of 13p. That multiple should be a little higher imo, around 0.8 x NPV based on the low risk nature of Havieron.
Once the DFS is out that multiple should rise.

Time value of future cash flow is important for valuing GGP (hence NPV). I’ve compiled a discounted cash flow model for Havieron and it came out around 22p but I used less dilution than they ended up taking. As they move ever closer to the date of first production (end 2013/early 2014) their valuation should rise.

That said there often seems to be a lull and then a jump with these miners as they approach first production. Also keep an eye on Adriatic for comparison - tier one proj approaching production next year, amazing prospect for a re-rate but the price currently languishing (sliver price rocket incoming though…). They suffered from political issues in Bosnia though to complicate things.

So many moving parts in the GGP story to consider. There’s the mad sentimental private investor base. Any sniff of momentum and all these lemming pile in sending it higher - see 2020. That could happen again in current climate as gold is looking for an excuse to boom. Any more sniffs of QE in the western economy (already a few whiffs) would set it running.
Another part is the much talked-about ‘short manipulation’. The crazy pi’s like to imagine an enemy out to get them and steal their ‘winning ticket’. In reality it’s around 5% of shares on issue. If it closes it’ll be a small boost. But they’re obviously short for a reason and have a theory.
Another is the recent buy-in from Wylfa. Imo this is the most significant part of the jigsaw. Wyloo are massively serious players on the mining industry, Western Aus is their back yard, and they have form for taking on majors (like Newcrest) in negotiations and winning - see BHP and Noront. As far as I can tell they don’t get involved with shitcos and don’t spend their money lightly.
So for an outfit like Wyloo to not just get involved with GGP but to be putting big money and essentially 3 board members in place suggests to me they see significant a value creation opportunity ahead. How that plays out I’m unsure - Wyloo’s stated strategy is to invest in battery metals and copper. Perhaps Havieron has more cobalt or nickel then we currently know about (only trace mentioned in historic drills). Perhaps they just see significant upside in the mix of copper and gold in Havieron. Perhaps their intent is to insert themselves into the dynamic between GGP and Newcrest in the event of a takeover attempt by NCM.

Impossible to know. But Wyloo’s involvement to me signals a big positive.

Decent price at 8p (as per today). My long term target for selling the remainder of my shares was always 22p which I expected them to arrive at sometime following start of production in 2024. However I hadn’t factored for as much dilution as they did, so now I align with Sprott’s estimate mid teens on production.

Th wildcards are if they hit anything decent on any of the licenses surrounding Havieron. And if NCM make a bid.

So there’s optionality for a boost, and the current value of Havieron I believe provides a floor for price.

Another positive for me is the upcoming ASX listing. This will open up pathways for more insto capital and more pi interest as GGP is under the radar still among the Aussie and Canadian resource pi’s.

Funny one for me to give an opinion on because I’ve held it so long and I also crystallised such a massive gain on it. That it’s almost part of my history now. But I’m no daft enough to be Arya he’d to these things and I’d be very happy offloading the remainder in the mid teens and putting it in long term bonds or Glencore or something else paying a nice steady return.

TLDR: very good management, amazing asset, very strong backers, intriguing dynamic with JV partner, good prospects. There are more exciting explorers, and safer producers. 7/10.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2022, 06:28:34 pm by petejh »

kelvin

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Much appreciated Pete - and thanks for the honest appraisal when you have so much skin in the game.
I opened a small.position, just 1% of my PF, late yesterday and obviously before I saw this. The SP seems to be IMO about the bottom barring major macro events but your views carry a great deal more weight than my thoughts.

It's interesting you say about Adriatic, as I've not really looked at them other than your reports on here but there does seem to be a lot more noise about them currently. Silver seems to be doing a pretty dance for folk at the moment but who knows?

Thanks Pete

petejh

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Great update from GMG today. GMG have been quietly developing graphene-aluminium-ion batteries. The graphene is produced by GMG in-house using a unique patented process involving cracking methane which produces a very high purity graphene compared to obtaining it from graphite. Core management is all ex-Shell, natural gas division...

The graphene is then perforated on nano-scale, and the perforations filled with aluminium using a method developed by Uni of Queensland and licensed by GMG. Last year they progressed to a pilot production plant for coin cell batteries (2032) and sent out customer trial batteries. Feedback was good. Today's update states they've now doubled energy density and increased power density by a third. The batteries have exceeded the energy density of a Li-ion battery, with potential to 'fully charge an average phone battery in 3 minutes'. It's a much cleaner battery, totally recyclable, no mining (a tiny amount of aluminium involved).

A pouch cell battery is also being developed and trial batteries have been produced. If successful at scale then this will be one of the game-changers people are waiting for in battery storage / battery power.




Next steps are a final investment decision to produce the coin cells on commercial scale next year, and to get the pouch cell batteries to the point of final investment decision by 2024. Capital raise will be required, or a buy-out.

I had a lot of doubts about their claims when I invested in May 2021 as the claims seemed a bit too good to be true and the CEO comes across a bit like a mad scientist with amazing ideas but not someone who'd bring it to commercial production. But progress has been steady so far and they've executed on everything they said they would. They've established non-binding agreements with Wood Group this year to develop their graphene manufacturing facilities and Bosch in 2021 to design, develop and build their battery production line. 

The company has also developed a spray-on graphene coating for coating the heat exchanger on air-con units (could be used on heat pumps?) which increases the air-con energy efficiency by up to 30% through graphene being a very efficient heat conductor. Called 'thermal XR' it's currently being marketed and scaled up for commercial sale in the middle east and US. Nice cash-flow if it takes off. But the batteries are the big win if they keep progressing along the path they're on. Pretty exciting time for battery tech. Anyone interested should go back through a few of the interviews since 2020 with Corey Fleck to get a feel for how they've progressed the technology.

Update on the battery: https://graphenemg.com/gmg-battery-performance-graphene-production/
Interview with Craig Nicol, ceo of GMG about the latest update:

Good overview of the graphene-aluminium-ion battery tech from earlier this year pre-update:
« Last Edit: October 11, 2022, 09:35:14 pm by petejh »

MischaHY

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Exciting to see that the functionality seems to be living up to the expected level. If it scales well then it will be a game changer for the automotive industry and also removes one of the key detracting points for battery tech i.e. excessive mining and difficulty of recycling.

petejh

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I've been enjoying Howard Mark's memos for their calm wisdom. I thought this 30min interview with Marks and his co-manager Bob O'Leary was superb. It looks back at memos written by Marks in the run-up to and during the 07-08 global financial crisis. Essential listening for understanding the psychology of market participants.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo-podcast/the-rewind-global-financial-crisis

WilliCrater

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So, in my late fifties and have a few K to invest.  I've a few gaps in my NI record so it feels like a no-brainer at the moment to fill these with voluntary contributions.  However, just as I've been girding my loins to do this I've been hit with a diagnosis of a cancer with a not especially encouraging prognosis in terms of surviving to see the fruits of my contributions. Average surivival rate somewhere between 1 and 8 years depending on progression.  Wonder how to decide to spend 6 years worth of contributions now (I'm fairly sure won't be making up the gaps organically).  I don't want to just sit on it and see it slowly disappear via inflation.  Can't spend it on visits to Kalymnos or Leonidio, etc (much as I'd like to).  Haven't got any worthwhile things to do the hovel.  Don't know much about investing in the current "climate".  Thoughts?
« Last Edit: November 21, 2022, 01:45:02 am by WilliCrater »

petejh

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There's not much more I feel I can say than I'm very sorry, you have my best wishes.

Without knowing anything else about your circumstances I think caution would be wise. This thread is definitely not suitably qualified to tell you the best approach to invest in those circumstances. Perhaps there are loved ones and dependants to leave funds to. Or charities you care about that you could donate to. Investing might or might not be the best choice. Alternatively a guaranteed fixed income fund such as an annuity or bond fund. I know annuity rates have risen recently and can provide a respectable return.

If the idea is to hopefully grow a long term fund for loved ones then a cautious stockmarket-based approach could be to invest in a passive global index tracker. For guidance I recommend this Moneyvator article as a great place to learn more: https://monevator.com/best-global-tracker-funds/

Any of the tracker funds they list would be suitable for long term growth with low ongoing charges. It won't perform excitingly and may spend years doing not very much, but over a long term it should increase in value at the global average.

Without knowing your circumstances I'm hesitant to suggest anything riskier than that.

If there are passions or goals you'd like to put money towards then its possible to invest in various individual companies or funds that align with whatever your interests and worldviews are.

One example for me is plastics recycling technology in the form of a US company called Digimarc. They're rolling out the plastics separation technology in Europe at the moment under a project called 'Holy Grail' which will mean plastics that would previously not have been recycled can now quickly and easily be separated at the point of disposal using digital laser etching on all plastic packaging which tells a scanner in a sorting machine what sort of plastic it is.
Information here: https://www.digimarc.com/blog/successful-sorting-waste-samples-holygrail-20-open-house

That's not me recommending them as an investment for you - they're volatile and this is much higher risk investing than a global tracker. The potential downside risk (and upside reward) is far greater. It's just as an example of themes you can allocate money towards. Others might be battery technology companies, renewable energy funds, nuclear, EVs, or perhaps tobacco and arms suppliers is more your thing! Whatever floats your boat.

If you wanted to invest in whatever companies or funds you wanted to then it's pretty straightforward. You'd set up an online trading account. I use II, as they allow international trading on nearly all markets. But check fees as different trading accounts use different fee structures. Others may be cheaper for infrequent trading.

Here's Moneyvator's broker guide: https://monevator.com/find-the-best-online-broker/
« Last Edit: November 21, 2022, 10:11:58 am by petejh »

petejh

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One other thing, if you do set up an investment account I highly recommending making it an ISA and allocating your full £20k per year to it if you can. All gains - either dividend income or capital gain - within an ISA are fully tax free. More important than ever in current climate with the recent changes in dividend and capital gains tax allowances being cut.

petejh

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Intended to post a 2022 review in early Jan, but have been super busy moving house and retiring from work. Lately it seems I'm a busy gardener.

Below is a review of active trades for 2022 – i.e. short-term trades where I bought and sold during the year. I’ll do my holdings separately in another post.

24 short-term trades during 2022.
17 profitable trades. 6 unprofitable trades. 1 flat.
Avg gain per profitable trade: 47.9% (814.7% / 17)
Avg loss per unprofitable trade:  47.2% (283% / 5)

I made an overall gain of 30.9% on short-term trades during the year, comfortably beating the markets. Much of my outperformance was down to Filo. Removing the Filo effect would have seen me make an overall loss of low single figure %. Still far better than the markets I’m (mostly) invested in:
Nasdaq -30%
S&P500 -23%
TSX -20%
FTSE250 -18%
FTSE100 was flat, much of it due to exchange-rate tailwinds boosting profits, also because it contains a high proportion of the type of companies money seeks out in this environment i.e. profitable dividend-payers.

The loss/gain figures for each trade below are somewhat useless for deducing overall performance – position size relative to overall portfolio matters a great deal. Position size explains why you can lose money on trades more often than making profitable trades, yet overall still make a gain. For example 3 high-percentage losses with small position-sizes does relatively little damage to overall wealth and can be repaired by a medium-sized percent gain on a relatively large position size. The key obviously is avoiding a large loss on something to which you’ve committed a large position size!

In this I failed somewhat in 2022 – my big losers were Illika, Trackwise and Orosur, with each being a 2% position-size of my overall PF - which is still a small risk overall (the advantage of having sizeable portfolio). At least I took action, selling IKA and TWD early in 2022 when it became obvious the interest rates outlook was changing for the long term and unprofitable long-duration tech was going to suffer badly. You only have to look at how stuff like Tesla, Meta and even the tech darlings Apple performed in 2022. If I’d have held longer I’d have lost more.

IKA/TWD/OMI were not wise trades on my part - too large a position size. I should have gone 1%. And I bought all at too high a price in 2021 without properly considering their intrinsic value. Orosur has been my bogey share for three trades over the last two years – the volatility making it a trader’s dream or (for me) worst nightmare. I’m embarrassed how badly I’ve done with this stock, pure FOMO in 2 cases chasing it on drill news, and the last trade (of 0.06% position size) was me just trying to prove to myself I could make it work at least once for a short trade - I didn’t! I should leave it well alone and probably will.

The golden nugget everyone hopes for is the large gain - say anything over 100% - combined with a large position size. It’s exciting seeing something rocket hundreds of % but if all you’ve done is turn £100 into £500 then you have to ask whether all the time, research stress and risk really worth it? Probably not. They come along very rarely in investing: Filo, GGP, Alphamin and Whitehaven were all high-quality assets that came from a deeply under-valued price and multiplied in value many times. PMET is turning into another – I traded this is 2022 for a 15% gain, but then bought back in @ $7 with a 3.5% position size and a long term view to hold as continued excellent drill results showed this likely shaping up into the ‘Filo’ of Lithium i.e. exploration phase of one of the worlds’ largest tier 1 resources. I’m currently up another 100% on PMET since getting back in. I wouldn’t chase here but I would buy weakness. Same for Filo and Alphamin, any weakness is a buy.

Can you identify these sorts of quality assets in advance?  In the resources sector yes, and I have multiple times. These resource/commodity market sectors are relatively small, relatively volatile and most of the major money has stayed out of the sector post a major dip in the sector around early 2010s, in favour of chasing the tech growth darlings of the last decade+ (to good effect). In this sector, you can identify under-valued quality companies in advance of the herd if you have a good nose and learn who to listen to, which I’ve developed over 20 years of investing in shit.

If you hold quality assets then volatility is your friend, it’s what give you the big gains. Dare you commit the large position size though..? The essence of risk/reward.  I committed to a much larger than average position-size (at a low price) in each of GGP, AFM, WHC and Filo (and now PMET)
Some sells below were on a forced timescale due to needing cash to buy my house – if I hadn’t been house-buying I’d have chosen to keep hold of Centuras Metals and MLX as I have no doubts about their quality and long-term value versus current prices; and kept even more of Filo and Alphamin (still hold very large positions in both).


Figures below relate to:
PF: Starting position % of my overall portfolio - this should reflect commitment based on quality of my research but can also reflect my dumbness and credulity.
Price paid, and when.
Price sold.
% gain or loss after dealing costs. This includes any dividends received in 2022 and takes into account dollar/pound exchange-rate. Because of XR, the gain/loss figure may not correspond directly to sale price/purchase price - for e.g. I made a gain on a couple of trades (Occidental and the first Mosaic trade) despite selling @ a lower price than I bought, due to the XR moving in my favour. The first 3 quarters of 2022 were good for this tailwind. 4th quarter reverted to more typical XR following the tory leadership election (second one not the first one..).

Meridian Mining (0.6% of PF) / $0.55c in 2021 / $0.92 / +63%
NGEX (1.25% of PF) / $1.77 Jan / $2.50 / +38.5%
Nico (0.1% of PF) / free Spin Out shares from owning MLX in 2021 / $1 / +100%
Trackwise (2% of PF) / £2.51 in 2021 / £0.73p / -71.5%
Illika (2% of PF) / £2.13 in 2021 / £1.09 / -49%
Occidental Petroleum (2.5% of PF) / $58.52 March / $58.30 / +4%, inc. dividend
Exxon Mobil (2% of PF) / $96.22 May / $98.75 / +0.002%  😊 XR went against me.
Mosaic (2.1% of PF) / $57.9 March / $57 / +2.2% due to XR
              (1% of PF) / $46.7 June / $50.4 / +5.2%
Peabody Energy (1% of PF) / $18.41 July / $21.95 / +13.6%
Vale (1% of PF) / $13.32 Aug / $13.30 / +8.2% inc. divi
Glencore (2% of PF) / £4.69 March / £4.70 / +2.5% inc. divi
                 (1% of PF) / £4.80 June / £5.02 / +8.5% inc. divi
MetalsX (2% of PF) / $0.37 in 2021 / $0.38 / +6.3% due to XR
Zacapa (1% of PF) / $0.59 Feb / sold 20% @ $0.70 & sold 80% @ 0.21 / -47%
Artemis (1% of PF) / $0.72 in 2021 / $0.48 / -30%
Centaurus Metals (3.6% of PF) / $0.80 in 2021 / $1.02 / +24.5%
Osisko Gold Royalties (1% of PF) / $14.9 May / $14.5 / +- 0% inc. divi
Orosur (2% of PF) / 29.1p in 2021 / 11.3p / -63.5%
             (0.06% of PF) / 11p Oct / 8.6p / -22%
Alphamin (6.25% of PF) / $0.57c in 2021 / sold 15% of my holding in 2022 @ $1.10 / +111% inc. divi (of 9.5%)
Filo (6.9% of PF) / $4.85 in 2021 / sold 42% of my holding in 2022 @ between $14.60 - $26.90 / +402%
Patriot Battery Metals (1.5% of PF) / $5.05 Aug / $5.95 / +15%
Adriatic Metals (0.5% of PF) / £1.15 June / £1.28 / +10.2%


It makes me think of the pointless arguing early on in this thread's life, with intelligent people, who aren't committed investors yet seem to know with certainty that it's impossible to beat the market average consistently because they've read some studies and work in a (unrelated) profession, very UKB. It isn’t impossible, it depends on spending the time learning and on which sectors of the market you spend lots of time learning about. Also depend on what timescale you're talking about beating the average - 1 day or 20 years. I’ve beaten the market again for the 4th year running (in a bear market), become financially independent, and retired at 47.

Over the next 10 years I expect I won’t care very much about beating the markets, because the last 4 years of outperformance have given me the freedom whereby the average market return from now on will be just fine thanks 😊.
The average climbing grade is somewhere around VS/HVS, 6a+/6b. But people regularly climb E9 and 9a, perhaps just once or perhaps for year after year, before sliding back down the performance curve. There’s nothing wrong with being average, but I think you don’t have to be average at all times in all walks of life. There are times when you can outperform and times when you cruise along.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2023, 04:17:12 pm by petejh »

sdm

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In case anyone is interested in my punter level summary:

Biggest winners:

Atlantic Lithium (ALL / A11) 39.9p
Lithium explorer whose Ewoyaa (Ghana) drill results last year were great. Low cap ex/op ex project. Piedmont will be paying the majority of the upfront costs for which they have a 50% offtake agreement which reduces the risks for a project at this stage (but also reduces some of the potential upside). The remaining ~$30m required to fund through to production could be funded by outstanding Director options (about $30m if all exercised) and/or a potential investment from the MIIF (see below). If further funding is required, the board have stated this would be funded via debt, there should not be any placings required so future dilution shouldn't be excessive.

Upcoming inflection points:
- DFS due Q2/3 2023. Will come with a resource upgrade to somewhere in the region of 35-37mt based on the known drill results. Last year's PFS was based on 30mt and a very conservative lithium price. The resource is still open ended so there is plenty of potential for further upgrades in the future.
- The Ghanaian Government Minerals, Income & Investment Fund have been in talks over investing in the project for months. Assuming they do invest, it is unlikely that Ghana would make things to difficult in the process of approving the mining application so it is likely to be seen as a step in derisking the road to production. MIIF have been involved in a lot of publicity for ALL in the last week, fuelling speculation that an announcement is likely very soon (but such speculation correctly predicts 20 out of every 5 announcements).

Price has been partly kept down by DGR who originally owned ~25% of the company and were on the board. They wanted to sell to one of the mining giants as soon as the discovery was made to free up funds for their next project but the rest of the board saw greater value in seeing things through to production unless an offer is received that is too good to refuse (probably well North of 100p). DGR have been consistently selling into any good news or positive price movements and are now down to 3.8%. Their plan is to continue selling for the next ~3 months until their stake is down to 0 so they will continue to add some short term resistance to price increases.

Some potential risks:
- Delays or rejection of the mining license application. Should be low risk but never zero.
- Ghana is generally very pro mining and stable as far as African regimes go. But they have a LOT of debt. This could lead to political instability with the rising costs of servicing that debt and there's no guarantee that future regimes would be so pro mining.
- The general economic climate is not ideal for speculation on future earnings.

I scaled in between 15p and 20p for an average of about 17p. Sold 3/4 of my stake last spring in the high 50s on the back of drill result hype. It was sold with the intention of buying back in, which I did when the price calmed back down to the 30s.

They had a stock split last winter which should add some future value to those of us who held ALL back then. ALL's Ivory Coast & Chad gold prospects were spun off to form Ricca Resources. Ricca are at a much earlier stage, are currently unlisted, with an expected IPO on ASX Q2/3 this year. Ricca have since got involved in an Ivory Coast Lithium/Tantalum prospect with Firering.

Gilead (GILD) 83.5
Bought 2021 at an average price in the high 50s (plus dividend yields of 3.5% p/a which were auto reinvested).
My knowledge of big pharmaceuticals is limited but the valuation after covid didn't make any sense given their financials and their antiviral/cancer portfolio.
Sold 85% of my holding in the mid 80s. Will likely offload the rest soon.

Filo (FIL). Pete's already said it all better than I could. Thanks a lot for the heads up Pete! I sold around half, what is left is all profit.

Cornish Metals (CUSN). I scaled out last winter/spring in the mid-twenties for about a 100% profit. Another one that I'm sure everyone has heard plenty about.

Argentex (AGFX) 130p
Foreign Exchange fintech. Was looking very undervalued in the Autumn, picked up a small position as a short-medium term trade. Sold half at a 30% profit recently.

Biggest losers:
I was slower than Pete to get out of Ilika (IKA). I hope I learned some valuable lessons on this one and should have sold sooner. There were a few warning signs of missed targets and returning to the markets for more funding but I gave them the benefit of the doubt when I should have been more ruthless and moved on sooner. Then the deteriorating macro economic outlook made them even less attractive. Took a 50% hit on this one.

Kavango (KAV) 1.4p
A high risk punt on a junior explorer with Copper/Nickel/Rare Earth/Precious metal prospects in Botswana. I'm confident there are large resources there but I lost confidence that they have the team to prove it. There are a lot of challenges with the geology but the board made a lot of mistakes in their drilling tactics and their marketing/fund raising strategy. Another ~50% loss.

Polarean (POLX)
Sold in last summer's spike. I made a decent return on them last year, but not enough to undo the previous year's loss from the delays in getting FDA approval. Lost 25% overall.

Quote
Some sells below were on a forced timescale due to needing cash to buy my house – if I hadn’t been house-buying I’d have chosen to keep hold of Centuras Metals and MLX as I have no doubts about their quality and long-term value versus current prices; and kept even more of Filo and Alphamin (still hold very large positions in both).
Bad timing on needing cash for my first house purchase meant I ended up taking a much smaller position than I otherwise would have taken for my very first foray into investing (which was a totally uninformed punt on an unlisted company  :o). It did extremely well, but my small initial position stopped it from being life changing. I'm sure every investor has a similar story on the one that got away.

sdm

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Atlantic Lithium (ALL / A11) 39.9p

- DFS due Q2/3 2023. Will come with a resource upgrade to somewhere in the region of 35-37mt based on the known drill results. Last year's PFS was based on 30mt and a very conservative lithium price.
... Half an hour after I wrote this, they announced an increase in the Ewoyaa resource estimate to 35.3mt.

petejh

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Nice, not familiar with ALL but then I'm not familiar with the Lithium sector beyond PMET and some general gossip. Always looked on from the sidelines until PMET convinced me to take the plunge, as it's obviously a hot sector but seemingly prone to the meme sentiment taking hold the same as for Uranium and Silver at times of exuberance. (Which means plenty of pumped-up garbage stocks among the few genuinely good ones, for anyone tempted by the next amazing sounding narrative...).

Recent deal between GM and and N.American lithium miner, Carmakers increasingly looking at missing out the middlemen and going direct to offtake deals/JV's/buyouts of miners for nickel, lithium, cobalt:
https://www.tradingview.com/news/mtnewswires.com:20230201:A2833317:0-national-bank-notes-gm-s-investment-in-lithium-americas-sees-more-deal-making-opportunity-for-mining-companies/

sdm

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I think there's a good chance that an OEM takes over Ewoyaa's remaining 50% at some point. I wouldn't be shocked if Piedmont's interest got bought out by an OEM somewhere down the line too.

petejh

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Saw this chart on twitter today by GS. Fantastic visual representation of how fortunes change and revert to mean. Last year's losers have started out as this year's winners YTD (but only 1.5 months in and plenty of road left for them to sink again...).

Of the 3 sectors that were last year's winners, 2 are still winning, 1 is now losing YTD.

Commodities and infrastructure still winning. Which chimes with how both sectors performed during the 1970s stagflationary environment.

Top right quadrant. Stuff is notably absent.

(This is US based. UK market would look different with more flat or positive over 2022/2023)

« Last Edit: February 10, 2023, 10:34:52 pm by petejh »

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I’ve been meaning to summarise my first leap/dive/belly flop into investing for a while, but never quite managed to put the time aside to do it. So here we go. I’m keeping crypto-gambling out of this…

I felt I wanted to be part of it all. See how it works, feel the risk and hopefully get the reward. I’m pretty financially secure with no dependents, so losing some cash felt like it would not be too worrisome. Speculate to accumulate and all those clichés.
At the end of lockdown, I had some spare cash due to steady earnings and having little to spend on and was getting a bit of FOMO seeing everyone else getting rich easily. (red flag #1)
Read up on here, asked some questions, did some research. Didn’t expect to be doing a high volume of trades per month and wanted access to some specific funds for my SIPP, so went with Hargreaves Landsdown for the platform, despite higher fees.
I’m not going to go much into my SIPP. It’s pretty diversified and mainly in thematic funds: renewable energy, sustainable development, some Asia (currently doing shite), little bit of mining. It’s currently sitting a few % up,  – not overly bothered and not looking at that much.
Then there’s the shares….
Oh the wonderful stock picks. What everyone says is: “learn, understand, do your research”. Ok, so I read a pile of shit on the internet, read up on some companies. Got excited by tech and felt the need to jump in – had cash to hand and no time to waste (red flag #2).
I got quite excited by Arrival EV as a concept and an opportunity. Given it was a start-up with no revenue, sales, etc. etc. it was always a risk. I initially put about 12.5% of my available pot into that (note, this was only about 2% of my total investments at the time).
I also put smaller amounts into:
-   Hyundai
-   TPI Composites
-   Filo Mining
One of the issues with HL and any share trading account is the base fees you have to pay per transaction – this is difficult for the first-time investor who maybe wants to “dabble” with smaller amounts as you are instantly at a £20 loss (£10 to buy and then £10 to sell), so for a £200 share purchase you need to make 10% to just break even. This encourages you to trade bigger.
 

I started writing this a few months ago and now finally getting round to finishing it off, as I have finally sold ALL my holdings in FILO mining and I can’t thank Pete enough for the tip-off if it weren’t for Filo I’d be sitting on a 38% loss right now, but as it stands I’m 7% up on my full ISA and I started around May 2021 at the end of the amazing year of gains for tech etc.
For context, I bought FILO 3 times to total of £1088 invested. I just sold my last tranche of shares and my total received across all sales was £2519, or 131% gain.

On reflection, my first few share picks had effectively zero research (even though I thought I had done plenty at the time). I realise now that I picked shares on past momentum (duh) and interesting products, rather than digging into financials etc. What I’ve come to realise is that you really need a passion and interest for this shit to do well in it, and it’s pretty time and mental resource consuming. I’m really glad I did it and I’m not at all bothered about barely winning and almost heavily losing (Arrival can’t lose me any more as it’s down 97% on what I bought at….) as I learnt a lot about how it works, about myself, my risk tolerance (reasonable), my ability to sit it out (better than I expected), my ability to research and pick winners (worse than I expected). But I think I’m potentially out of the stock-picking game now. Maybe when I have some spare cash again I’ll drop some on Pete’s latest tip off haha.

I guess my rambling tale is a bit of a cautionary one for those who feel the FOMO – yes, there are big wins out there and if you pick the right ones, it’s an easy* way to make some money but, BUT, it’s only easy when you do the ground work and actually understand what you’re doing…and you might not know if you understand what you’re doing until you really have skin in the game (or you might not realise you don’t fully understand until it’s too late…).
My Triodos sustainable equity fund has grown 9% over the same period – yes, you cede your thinking to others but there’s a reason they’re paid to do what they do – they’re all just professional versions of Pete, out there researching, understanding and picking…
« Last Edit: February 21, 2023, 03:34:27 pm by Fultonius »

petejh

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Could go here or in the 'Electric vehicles' thread.. I received an interesting update from Adamas in my inbox this morning, regarding the announcement by Tesla this week that their next motor will be free of rare-earths:


Quote
At Tesla’s 2023 Investor Day on March 1st the company revealed that its next generation PMSM traction motors would not use rare earth permanent magnets.

As stated by Colin Campbell, VP Powertrain Engineering at Tesla, “as the world transitions to clean energy, demand for rare earths is really increasing dramatically and not only is it going to be a little hard to meet that demand but mining that rare earth, it has environmental and health risks”.


Key takeaways from Adamas Intelligence:

 
Likely a ferrite magnet powered PMSM
To-date, no perfect alternatives to NdFeB
Not all rare earth production is equal when it comes to environmental and health impacts
Environmental footprint of a motor using ferrite can be worse than NdFeB
NdFeB market implications: Expected to be minor

The media and market’s reaction to the news has been largely overblown, speaking to a broad misunderstanding of the NdFeB market’s supply and demand fundamentals.

Looking forward to 2035, Adamas forecasts that global demand for NdFeB magnets will triple while global production will only double, constrained by long lead times to bring online new rare earth oxide production.

In relation to the magnitude of the expected supply gap, a Tesla-driven demand drop would go virtually unnoticed.

A more detailed analysis here, should be interesting for anyone interested in gaining a better understanding of what's going on behind the scenes of manufacturing the motors and batteries inside an EV: https://www.adamasintel.com/tesla-rare-earth-free-motor/


This interests me because I'm heavily invested in various commodities required for the increased electrification of energy grids/transport/automation. I'm not invested in rare earths though - I got burnt by the narrative in 2013 with the Mountain Pass fiasco (Molycorp - now bankrupt), but I did make a quick 70% gain on Ucore in 2021.

The direction of travel is clearly away from certain commodities that have bad ESG optics for western consumers (despite much of it being a charade, using SE Asian heavily coal-powered metals refining and manufacturing). Especially reduced/elimination of Cobalt. But also potentially in the longer term (decade+) reductions in Lithium demand as trials of lithium-free high performance  batteries (GMG...) come to market.

In the near term I wonder if now could be a good point to get back into the rare earths market, despite the theatrics from Tesla. Two companies stand out to me from previous knowledge and experience - Lynas and Ucore.

Lynas is an Australian rare earths producer listed on the ASX. Ucore is a N.American company, owner of the Bokan Ridge rare earths deposit in Alsaka, but more interestingly owners of a new technolgy in rare earths processing. The Bokan Ridge deposit is on the very slow train to development. But I've been following them as they develop their processing technology and it appears this is now the company's main focus, following some legal disputes last year over ownership of the tech. I expect if they make the processing technology scalable  -with massive support from the US government as per announcements by Biden over the last 12 months - then they'll aim to be taking rare earth ore from the few non-Chinese producers, such as Lynas. The theme of commodity security is the theme of the first half of this decade at least..
From Ucore's website:
Quote
Through strategic partnerships, this plan includes disrupting the People’s Republic of China’s control of the North American REE supply chain through the near-term development of a heavy and light rare-earth processing facility in the US State of Louisiana, subsequent SMCs in Alaska and Canada and the longer-term development of Ucore’s heavy-rare-earth-element mineral-resource property at Bokan Mountain on Prince of Wales Island, Alaska.
https://ucore.com/


Anyone tempted in rare earths investing needs to understand not all rare earths are equal.  The heavy rare earths are high value. Light rare earths much less valuable. I made this mistake with Mountain Pass (Molycorp), not understanding that their product was majority low-value light rare earths. And also need to understand that, up to now, China controls the processing of rare earth ore so that the miners are constrained who they can sell to. This pricing control also contributed to killing Molycorp, who had to ship their ore to China for processing. Guess who bought Mountain Pass last year...

Anyway, an interesting niche backwater that I used to be invested in and happily exited with minor scars. But this Tesla announcement (which I think is typically bullshit Tesla contraindication) reminds me that now, with the advancement of Ucore's processing technology, perhaps the rare earths market once again has potential for some interesting near-term catalysts as the cold war with Chinese/Russian commodities develops. I'm not invested but will be keeping an eye on things.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2023, 01:24:24 pm by petejh »

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This isn't particularly new, and in motor design circles I don't think anyone has done much more more than raise an eyebrow in mild intrigue. There has been pretty intensive research on rare earth free motors for a long time now, be that induction, wound rotor, or some form of re-free PM or reluctance machine. The benefits are mainly the reduced cost and reliance on China, although as Pete points out a lot of that is optics. And then there's all the stuff required for batteries anyway. All the big manufacturers have their own ideas on what's best but it's hard to get away from the efficiency that rare earth PM machines provide, and things like induction machines are usually limited to secondary motors. But re-free motor cars are out there, the Renault Zoe for example. Intrigued to see what Tesla come up with (and if they actually follow through with it).

petejh

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It's here! What you've all been waiting for... the biannual Adamas Intelligence 'State of Charge' EV battery + battery metals report:
https://www.adamasintel.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Adamas-Intelligence-State-of-Charge-EVs-Batteries-and-Battery-Materials-2022-H2.pdf

Large increases year-on-year in sales of EVs, battery capacity deployed, Nickel/Lithium/Cobalt deployed. Especially in Asia.

China, with their cheap coal-fired electricity, still massively dominate the manufacture of batteries along with the processing of battery metals. For resource investors the holy grail* is ESG-friendly supplies of nickel and lithium (good luck with finding ESG-friendly supplies of cobalt in the quantities required, I don't bother trying to find investments).

The predicted bottleneck in supply of battery metals and batteries is due to the good reason of trying to do it without totally fucking the environment.  'The ev industry is “going to be living a big lie for quite some time”' - as the Economist put it in this article on the EV industry:

Quote
In June Bloombergnef cast doubt on its earlier prediction that the cost of buying and running an ev would be as low as for a fossil-fuel car by 2024. More distant targets, such as the eu’s coming ban on new sales of carbon-burning cars by 2035, may not be met. Could the ev boom run out of juice before it gets going in earnest?

On paper, there ought to be plenty of batteries to go round. Benchmark Minerals, a consultancy, has analysed manufacturers’ declared plans and found that, if they materialise, 282 new gigafactories should come online worldwide by 2031. That would take total global capacity to 5,800gwh. It is also a big “if”. Bernstein calculates that current and promised future supply from the six established battery-makers—BYD and CATL of China; LG, Samsung and SK Innovation of South Korea; and Panasonic of Japan—adds up to 1,360gwh by the end of the decade. The balance would have to come from newcomers, and being a newcomer in a capital-intensive industry is never easy.

The optimistic overall capacity projections conceal other problems. Matteo Fini of S&P Global Mobility, a consultancy, notes that gigafactories take three years to build but require longer—possibly a few extra years—to manufacture at full capacity. As such, actual output by 2030 may fall short. Moreover, manufacturers’ unique technologies and specifications mean that cells from one factory are usually not interchangeable with those from another, which could create further bottlenecks.
Most troubling for Western carmakers is China’s dominance of battery-making. The country houses close to 80% of the world’s current cell-manufacturing capacity. Benchmark Minerals forecasts that China’s share will decline in the next decade or so, but only a bit—to just under 70%. By then America would be home to just 12% of global capacity, with Europe accounting for most of the rest.

...

Even if the West’s ev industry somehow managed to secure enough metals and battery-making capacity, it would still face a giant problem in the middle of the supply chain, refining, where China enjoys near-monopolies (see chart 3). Chinese companies refine nearly 70% of the world’s lithium, 84% of its nickel and 85% of its cobalt. Trafigura forecasts that the shares for the last two of these will remain above 75% for at least the next five years. And as with battery manufacturers, Chinese refiners gobble up dirty coal-generated electricity. On top of that, according to Trafigura, both European and North American firms are also expected to rely on foreign suppliers, often Chinese ones, for at least half the capacity to convert refined ores into the materials that go into batteries.

Western governments grasp the urgent need to diversify their suppliers. Last year Joe Biden, America’s president, unveiled a blueprint for a domestic battery supply chain. His huge infrastructure law, passed in 2021, set aside $3bn for battery-making in America. The Inflation Reduction Act, which he signed into law on August 16th, also includes sweeteners for the industry, so long as the ores, refined materials and components come from America or allied countries. The eu, which created a battery alliance in 2017 to co-ordinate public and private efforts, says €127bn was invested last year across the supply chain, with an additional €382bn expected by 2030. Most of this is likely to land downstream, helping the West become self-sufficient in the production of finished cells by 2027.

That is something. And newfound deposits, better mining technology, cleverer battery chemistry and sacrifices on performance may yet combine to bring the market into balance. More probably, as Jean-François Lambert, a commodities consultant, puts it, the ev industry is “going to be living a big lie for quite some time”.


 



* Centauras Metals (nickel), PNRL (nickel) and PMET (lithium) are my choices for exploration and development-stage companies. Along with Ecora and Altius Minerals for royalties on producing nickel, cobalt and copper assets (among other minerals). I currently hold PNRL and PMET, Ecora and Altius. Sold CTM for profit last year for house purchase.
Of those, CTM and Ecora are currently looking cheap. CTM a bargain at current weakness in price - anything under a dollar is cheap imo. Ecora pays a regular chunky dividend. Although general markets are wobbling on various anxieties so who knows, maybe will get even cheaper.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2023, 10:36:49 am by petejh »

kelvin

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Cheers for the link Pete, not seen that yet. I'll have a read later.
I have to say that I'm out of both PNRL and PMET.
Sheldon and his selling was frustrating, so PNRL is on the watchlist for now. Left with a small profit.
PMET was a good one for me, out with a 366% profit. Why? It hit my selling point. Initially I'd put a big chunk of cash in on a Monday and took back my initial investment on the Fri, leaving the profits on the table and it recently hit it's target. So I've moved the profits into Brunswick Exploration (BRW) who are also in the lithium space, with plenty of possible catalysts coming soon. Cashed up for the year. Drilling starts soon.ive also a decent position in Sigma Lithium who will soon be a producer.

I never did update were I ended last year, I've been slapped around the face with long covid and writing has been difficult.
I finished my first full year in quite an amazing place considering it wasn't the easiest year and I finished over 30% up on my PF 🍻
I'm still quite shocked. I was up at one point over 59% and didn't react quickly enough when the market dropped but lesson learnt and I've been quicker to sell since and also to take profits.
Thanks to Pete, Filo was the biggest chunk of that - they say know what you own and I did my DD properly and invested big. I think at one point it was 52% of my PF. It's nothing like that now. Spent a lot of the year with over half of my PF in cash, quite sensibly I think, so pretty chuffed.
Anyways - this year is tougher. So still 50/50 cash and longs.

Sold out of Whitehaven but will get back in at some point as it's dropped hugely since. I'd only invested in that as we primarily use smokeless fuel on our narrowboat and I wanted to offset rising costs. Doubled my money and made enough to pay for all our energy for maybe 3 years, including electricity.
Still invested in coal with HCC and Corsa but they produce met that's used in the production of steel, so a completely different market.
My biggest position is Ivanhoe Electric at around 5% of PF. Top management and leader, really a tech company when you dig deeper and perhaps a growing thesis that they'll end up a royalty company. Long term hold.
Energy - RIG BORR and KLXE provide services and that sector is pretty much at the bottom of the 8 year cycle. Up already between 25-50% on those three. Looking to add Valaris if the price is right.
I'm in EC in Columbia for dividends, the government owns 88% of them and as such has an interest in dividends being high. Jurisdiction? No worse than Alphamin currently. VTLE is another recent purchase.
I've a small position in Greatland, alongside a terrible investment in Sandstorm Gold. Down 25% on that one. Recently sold out of Dundee with a 20% profit. Still got some Filo which I guess counts as a precious metals play too. I'm definitely not a gold bug.
Tin plays are Alphamin and MLX. A bagholder on MLX after buying the bottom, then quadrupling my investment somewhere near the recent top. What a plum!
Vale is the only big miner I have. Big on iron, nickel and manganese.
Then I have quite a few juniors, some of which I'm up around 50% on such as Faraday Copper and ATX. Both bought due to the folks invested in them. Pierre Lassonde and the Lundins are people who mean business.
Worst performance is by Vizsla Copper, down 47% but learning patience is the only green here so far. After that, Aldebaran, Surge, NGEX, Camino and Largo fill out the PF.

As far as cobalt plays, then the only one I know of is JRV on the Aus market. Currently not liked by anyone much, the chart is horrendous, the price of cobalt is dropping, the quarter results were dire BUT... definitely a contrarian play if you're that way inclined.

Not expecting great things this year - lots of chop and unless one of the explorers drills something of note, I'd be happy to finish the year even. A big crash would mean I'd just buy what I have even cheaper, hence the cash on the sidelines.

Pete mentioned previously about going big on Filo, which also worked for me and I'm sure there's definitely something in my PF that I'll go big on this year.

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Always interesting to hear what you've been up to Kelvin, you appear to have a 'good nose' for this as they say.

Sheldon Iwentash selling his PNRL shares is a bit frustrating I agree - it will keep a lid on upside in the short-term - but anyone investing in this company has to accept this as part of the fabric. He part funded the company at a very early stage and consequently holds millions of shares at a very low price that he doesn't need to hold for the long-term to make huge profits - he's making huge profits now. He owns 6.5 million directly and another 7 million shares owned through his ThreeD Capital fund. He'll be selling-down these for a good while yet.

I'm holding for the long term on this one, as I have faith in what the EM geophysics suggests for the link-up zone at Selebi - with nickel apparently being one of the easier minerals to find with EM when there's no chance of conflating by the presence of graphite (not present at Selebi); I place a lot of weight on Warren Irwin's opinion - one of the rare straightforward more honest guys in this industry who doesn't seem to feel the need to bullshit, perhaps as he made it very big on long/shorting BreX and then Nexgen early in his career; along with two other people positive on this one; and the involvement of Boris Kamstra (Alphamin's ex ceo) gives me confidence this is the real deal in terms of an ESG-friendly, western-friendly, nickel-sulfide development in a good jurisdiction.

That said PNRL really botched a recent raising. Short term balls-up.


General market fear providing cheap entries at the moment for Filo and Afm among others.


Bit of info on PNRL from Warren Irwin. I'd listen to him on resource investing, less so on any other topic.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2023, 02:00:00 pm by petejh »

petejh

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Of those, CTM and Ecora are currently looking cheap. CTM a bargain at current weakness in price - anything under a dollar is cheap imo. Ecora pays a regular chunky dividend. Although general markets are wobbling on various anxieties so who knows, maybe will get even cheaper.


Update on CTM in case anyone was tempted.. last night they announced a 6 months delay to the DFS (the final feasibility study required before a final investment decision to proceed to construction) for their nickel sulfide project. This on top of previous delays to the DFS. That, combined with market jitters, suggest this could go much lower back to the 70 area. Long term, it's a top quality asset that will ether get bought or JV'd within 3 years. Short term, further weakness possibly ahead. A very good opportunity for the brave with a 2-3 year view.

Various shares in my areas of interest are breaking down below long-term support lines as the financial sector fallout continues. I opened a (tiny, 0.025%) position in bitcoin miner Argo Blockchain two days ago on a combination of technical signals that suggest a turnaround. My sell target is 32p.

Credit Suisse the next over the cliff edge..?
« Last Edit: March 15, 2023, 01:37:29 pm by petejh »

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Credit Suisse is looking iffy  :blink:

Currently sat on hands, it's been a strange couple of days, lots of things currently cheaper but is that as cheap as they go? A strong hold on my cash is needed for a while longer I think.
Filo definitely down in the realms of starting to make sense again.

Cheers for the video re PNRL Pete. I've no dispute with regards to them being a great equity, just not for me currently. Although if they get even cheaper...

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Yep volatile times again, no surprise there.

Depending on where one's focus is - growth or income (dividends) - and depending on timescale - short-term speculating or long term accumulating - there are some great opportunities arising over the last week or so. Glencore and Ecora are both starting to look very juicy for long term annual income as their prices slide. They both have well-covered dividends (3x covered) of 7.5% and 5.8% respectively. But I'm banking on both to head even lower towards their 3 year moving averages in this current volatility. Will likely put in a bid on both just above the 3-year MA's.

Alphamin also a great income stock now at around 8% divi on current price, with a v.significant growth upside ($1.80 - $2 fair value on Mpana South). Again could retest and overshoot its 3-year MA at 69c. But in a different risk league compared to the above two which deal in far lower risk jurisdictions overall.

Anything of quality in the growth stocks I follow (e.g. Filo, Pmet, Ctm) all currently at attractive prices but can always go lower in this environment.


edit:
lots of things currently cheaper but is that as cheap as they go?

In volatile times like these when prices are sliding, it can be difficult to know what's sliding into oversold (and therefore a likely bottom or at least very good value assuming nothing is fundamentally wrong with the company) versus what's sliding from overvalued to a 'normal' price. This is when some basic charting skills really help to spot over-reactions (charting really helps all the time).
Out of Filo, Ctm, Pmet and Afm, only Afm is currently oversold on the daily RSI - it dipped into oversold today. None are oversold on the weekly RSI. That's useful knowledge but it's only one indicator among a suite to consider. edit and ctm.. was looking at the weekly.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2023, 03:34:38 pm by petejh »

 

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