[Fultonius]

Last 2 rounds of Filo drill results have led to a drop in price. What's going on? Results both good, but not mind blowing. Some expecting more and getting out? Big boys trying to push the price down to get access to better prices?

Or just a more general pull back across all areas?

[petejh]

Patience. Just about every market globally had a big wobble yesterday, great companies dropped as well as duff ones. I think it was n.america’s worst single day in the market this year.

The quality of what filo have isn’t in any doubt. Have to correct the characterisation of the last two sets of results there. They’re definitely in the ‘mind-blowing’, rather than just the merely ‘good’ category. Hole 46 reported yesterday was Filo’s second best hole reported to date, and the Filo project is right up there with the very best copper/gold discoveries in the last 30 years. Expectations were sky-high around hole 46 and the timing was v.unfortunate to coincidence with all markets shitting themselves. If I wasn’t already fully invested here (six figures) then day’s like yesterday would be an ideal buying opportunity. There'll be many ups and downs between now and far higher share price value. All imo.
If needed to settle nerves, I can forward some realistic valuation calcs based on conservative estimates.

Essential viewing for filo investors here, recent interview with two of Lundin’s geologists following the recent breakthrough holes.
Discussing how the Filo/Jose Maria district was discovered.

[Fultonius]

I wasn't getting to jittery (I've not got much skin in the game) was just more wanting to understand the dynamics at play.

So, again, cheers for the information.

[petejh]

More essential viewing for Filo investors. An interview with two of the Lundin family, Adam and Jack. Adam is chairman of Filo.

Watch from 24mins - 35mins for discussion of the potential for a copper super-cycle due to the energy transition infrastructure requirement, Argentinian companies, and the discoveries at Filo especially. Amusing to see the edited-out part, and Jack's reaction, where Adam clearly slips some potentially market sensitive information about pending assays - likely hole 51 (a 1.5km step out hole pending).

The story of the Lundin family is interesting if you're a resource investor nerd. (first 15 mins of interview).

[petejh]

Quick Sunday update on Filo and a couple of others.

Filo reported the last assays on Wednesday from its recent drill season. Drilling has ended for a short break and will resume year-round exploration from mid-August. The results from hole 51 extended the footprint by 750 metres. Future holes plan to extend it further still. This remains the most no-brainer hold you'll ever see in the high-risk exploration market. In the words of Lucas Lundin: ''“Filo del Sol is growing into one of the largest copper-gold-silver discoveries ever..”. This coming from Lucas Lundin who's seen most things in the last 40 years exploration and development of resources including multiple massive discoveries and sales to the majors. In a market where copper is going to be the new oil for the next 10-20 years. The current resource for Filo doesn't include any of the recent drilling, and is due to be updated around year end. I bought in at $2.98, $3.49 and $8.80. I'll be holding until $20+. Anyone who holds Filo should familiarise themselves with the Lassonde curve, which describes the typical price action of a company through the cycles of exploration/development/production. Filo are currently riding the 'exploration success' part of the steep first rise. Crap exploration companies have similar rises, based on hyped-up minor discoveries but quickly burn out and drop back again. Filo actually has the real thing.

Risks for Filo remain the Argentinian politics - there's a need to resolve limits on foreign companies taking corporate profits out of the country; a potential for higher tax levies as imposed by Chile and Peru (since watered down) to spread to Argentina; potential levels of arsenic in the sulphide resource; and (lesser risk) a capital raise required to fund exploration (Filo well funded but will require more by year end).
Catalysts will be a resolution of the corporate profits question - Lundin reportedly is in talks with Argentinian government this month. Metallurgy ongoing on the sulphide ore will give clarity on arsenic content.

Alphamin reported Q2 earnings, looking at a stellar Q3 and debt free. Also reported further exploration success. Tin price is barnstorming away to $35,000+ per ton.  I've been in since .58c. Now breaking the .80c resistance. Holding to $1.10-20

Cornish Metals expected to be reporting the remaining holes for United Downs within the next two weeks. Looking forward to that pure copper intercept.

One I haven't mentioned much is Adriatic Metals (on LSE and ASX). Silver/zinc developer in Bosnia. I've held since 0.78p. I'm expecting a re-rate on commencement of construction of their Ruprice deposit. All permits in place, the bankable feasibility study is due end of this year. Well worth looking at especially if you see them dipping below current prices. They'll either begin construction in early 2022 and be in production within 12-18 months, or be bought out prior to construction by a mid-tier producer.  Either way expect them to re-rate from current levels.

[petejh]

Cornish Metals finally reported this morning on the remaining holes for United Downs. Short version - the grades and widths are not good enough to economically mine the lode they've drilled.  Share price reacting accordingly. Happy now that I sold 50% around the recent high and took profits. If you were in it for a short-term win, then that day has now passed.. hope you sold near the recent high

The long story is that the South Crofty project remains a viable mine and it's that which will underpin the share price going forwards (which will likely be lower than current as the market sells off). United Downs was the potential cherry on top/blockbuster for share price. (still could be, but risk just went up).
If you believe Cornish will go on to discover good grades of tin and/or copper from either deeper in United Downs (they were not drilling deep on this round of holes) and/or increase the resource size or improve economics of South Crofty then Cornish are still a good medium term hold. Still another 5 to 6 thousand metres of drilling to be done (approx 3,000m drilled to date), and in some new areas as per news of recent application for drilling to the south of Carn Brea.. So there are potential price catalysts over the next 12 months.
Tin price is on a sustained rip for sound reasons, this may help hype up the price of explorers such as Cornish - greater fool theory applies - along with the tin producers such as AFM, which has genuinely superb fundamental value. Copper price more uncertain which direction in the short term (12 months), but long term I've no doubts price will reflect high demand.

[shark]

Backed the proverbial truck up with LDG which following disposal of its sole investment is trading at 13.5p despite a declared 18.5p of cash per share. Best case is they swiftly wind up and return that cash to shareholders. Worst case is they spunk it away on a duff acquisition. However given their track record and especially the track record of the investment manager DBay frittering the cash away seems highly unlikely. Another potential outcome if they don’t wind up or make a large investment is a partial return of cash and the rest retained awaiting a suitable acquisition. Another way the value may be outed is if they start buying their own shares which enhances their value and bumps the share price up towards 18p fair value. Probably as good a downside protection as it gets and potential 30% upside one way or the other but hard to call the timescale.

[shark]

MMX as expected has announced a tender offer which they’ve priced at 9.6p per share for 1st Oct. You can currently pick shares up for about 9p so depending on dealing costs an easy 6% for a few weeks wait assuming the tender isn’t oversubscribed.

Risk that the tender is oversubscribed and you’re left with some residual shares they state a further return at a similar price once all winding up done which will be lengthy unless sold in advance but that’s likely to be below tender price. Residual shares will be bumped out on a delisting if held in ISA and also very difficult to sell if unlisted.

[petejh]

Thought I'd share some info about a company in which I've been invested for around 18 months now but haven't really mentioned much about. Adriatic Metals are developing a couple of polymetallic projects in Bosnia (Vares) and Serbia (Raska). The projects will produce Silver/Zinc/Lead with a small amount of gold. This company has been very much under the radar in the UK (also listed in Aus) as they didn't list on the AIM but instead on the main market, thus missing out on all the idiotic AIM numpties pumping and dumping mining explorer shitcos and meme stocks. In absence of hype Adriatic have grown slowly and steadily, I'm presently up around 40%, with my average around 1.10

They recently released the definitive FS for the Bosnian mine development (Vares). Construction starts in October with cash flow starting late 2022/early 2023. The project is well known by those in the know as tier one with incredibly good economics, possibly the best looking economics out there for a development such as this - low capex (sub 200m) and an extremely quick return on capital of around 9 months. Adriatic will be finalising the finance and announcing the deal in the next few weeks - a potential price catalyst.
The Company are well-funded with around £20m and low dilution is expected as most finance is expected to be debt (that will be quickly repaid in the first 12 months of production) not equity. Once production starts the Vares mine will Bosnia's largest exporter, contributing 1% of Bosnia's GDP per annum.
The Serbian project is a couple years behind on the development curve, with much upside potential from further exploration.

Corporate presentation is here: https://www.adriaticmetals.com/downloads/corporate-presentations/adt-investor-presentation-august-2021-v5.pdf

Fair price based just on the Bosnian (Vares) project, excluding exploration upside and the Serbian project (Raska), is in the region of 50 - 100% from present share price. The markets tends to look 12-8 months ahead and free cash flow will begin around 18 months from now.

This project's slightly close to my heart as I served in Bosnia during the war in 1995. The Vares project is located very close to where I was located and I know the region. It's good to see the place develop. I think I'll probably take a return tour (of a different kind) around the area one day.

Thought I'd share this 1hr interview with the CEO Paul Cronin. I think it's an example of a very impressive CEO highlighting some of the positive aspects of the mining industry, as well as giving a good overview of the company and its projects. Also plenty of nods in there to other topics relevant to my investment thesis - localised/non China resources, ESG, tin and copper - Paul even mentions Filo and Alphamin   and even mention of nickel the 'holy grail' (Centuaras Metals.. ahem..).




Other stuff - Meridian Mining hit a great step-out intercept and rose ~50% this week. Still a long way to go here. 
Centuras Metals continue growing their Nickel Sulfide deposit with step-out discoveries announced this week.
Filo resumed drilling, expecting announcement in Sept/early Oct about corporate profits being allowed to leave Argentina.
GGP broke the long-term downtrend, PFS coming sometime between now and xmas.

[petejh]

Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?

Looked at this some more. An Australian company called Graphene Manufacturing Group listed on the Toronto exchange  released news last week about their graphene aluminium-ion battery cells.. If they can scale this up it'd be very interesting. I've taken a small position, missed the recent big rise.

Overview: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2021/05/13/ev-range-breakthrough-as-new-aluminum-ion-battery-charges-60-times-faster-than-lithium-ion/?sh=1b401886d287

Interview and next steps to market: http://www.kereport.com/2021/05/14/gmg-graphene-manufacturing-group-recent-graphene-aluminum-ion-battery-performance-data-and-the-next-steps-to-get-the-batteries-into-the-market/

Video released today on 'cleanerwatt':

Links to more detailed information can be found on the CEO.ca  GMG board.. if you wade through the 'face-ripping' posts there are some links to good info.

Further to this story..
Sodium-ion could be the next big thing in batteries: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-13/the-next-best-electric-car-battery-is-here-and-it-s-sodium-ion-based?srnd=premium-europe

Apparently sodium-ion batts - an old tech, not as energy dense or able to hold charge as well as lithium-ion - can be made more competitive by layering two layers of graphene in the anodes instead of using graphite. If so then cheaper to produce viable sodium-ion EV batteries than Li-ion. The science behind it explained here in an article 12 months old: https://www.dw.com/en/the-batteries-of-the-future-sodium-instead-of-lithium/a-54707542

Possibly good for GMG..

[petejh]

I love this.

'A hamster has been trading cryptocurrencies in a cage rigged to automatically buy and sell tokens since June - and it's currently outperforming the S&P 500':
A hamster named Mr. Goxx has been trading cryptocurrencies in a rigged box since June.
The hamster determines which crypto to buy or sell by running on a wheel and strolling through one of two tunnels.
Since it started trading on June 12, Goxx's crypto portfolio returned 24% as of Friday.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/hamster-trading-cryptocurrencies-rigged-cage-goxx-bitcoin-price-ether-doge-2021-9

[petejh]

Just a bit of a lazy Sunday update on some market goings-on that might be interesting to some.

Uranium.. I only research and invest/trade in what interests me. I've never been interested Uranium so hadn't done any research and have no experience of this market. I'd been hearing snippets for years about various uranium companies from various places on the periphery while researching my other investments.. all seemed like a cult. This weekend I caught up with recent goings on. It seems it's a pretty interesting and pivotal time for this market. Sprott - a very well-known commodities investment management company - launched a physical uranium ETF in August. It's an unusual development because Sprott have basically disrupted the market for physical uranium by launching this fund and buying up the physical commodity as a speculative investment. The fund has $300m under management, soon to be another $500m fund-raising. There's talk of attempting to list on the NYSE, the fund is currently on the TSX - look for U.UN. A main US listing would further raise the profile and funding available to purchase physical uranium. Since sprott launched the fund the price of Uranium has soared.  The energy companies would normally be the main buyers and now there's this speculative player, funded by financial institutional money, buying up the commodity and forcing the price higher. It looks and sounds like a classic speculative bubble in its early stages. What consequences that brings longer term for energy prices and the development of nuclear energy, who knows.. 

Anyway it's an interesting moment for this market, and I'll be making a small investment in a physical uranium ETF next week if it dips (Northshore Global Uranium Mining ETF - ticker URNM). This apparently is a better performing investment than the actual Sprott fund.

If anyone's interested in an overview of the recent developments this interview is good: https://silverchartist.com/sput_21631294069502


Elsewhere Meridian (MNO.TSXV) hit the jackpot on step-out drilling (sold half @ 92c for around 70% gain); Filo resumed drilling and listed on the TSX (formerly TSX.v), Argentinian government mining profits policy announcement still to come; Adriatic continue rising towards final financing deal for Vares; AFM continuing trend toward $1 (target $1.20); Centuaras Metals broke to $1.10 then dipped back to a dollar (target $1.20); GGP riding down to and reacting off the fib61.8 retracement of its all time high (bought more @ 16p after selling in high 20s); Illika and Trackwise languishing currently (although TWD look promising for another contract win); KEFI a total dog after failing yet again to progress its project. One I haven't mentioned is Polarean Imaging which I bought at .92 earlier this year, for the last year they've been awaiting the FDA's decision to approve the company's new MRI imaging tech (use of xenon gas for better imaging of lung damage among other uses). The FDA decision is due this Tuesday, if the decision is +ve then price will probably fly. One to watch!

Bought a little ARB @1.27 on Friday speculating that bitcoin will continue rising next week.

[kelvin]

Uranium has been an interesting watch on twitter - the Sprott launch particularly. A quick burn high for the the whole market and then the inevitable correction. Lots of profit for many.
As you say, there's a cultist feel to it, quite evangelical at times but it's all wrapped up in a commonsense enough premise.
The world needs clean nuclear energy.

As for bitcoin, I bought some this weekend.

[petejh]

One I haven't mentioned is Polarean Imaging which I bought at .92 earlier this year, for the last year they've been awaiting the FDA's decision to approve the company's new MRI imaging tech (use of xenon gas for better imaging of lung damage among other uses). The FDA decision is due this Tuesday, if the decision is +ve then price will probably fly. One to watch!

Well the FDA made their decision yesterday. Ooof! Sucker punched! Not many were expecting an issue/delays. But it's a reminder of the risk of investing ahead of binary decisions. Overall the company is a good bet for long-term growth - a really good bet from this price! By long term that could still be as short as 6 months but more likely to now be another 12 months to FDA's decision.  Good clear analysis of the decision here: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/vadim-alexandre-discusses-the-complete-response-letter-received-by-polarean-from-the-fda-8b25185/

[Fultonius]

What's a good approach to knowing when to take profits?  I've made the mistake a few times holding out too long, getting greedy, and then being caught out post peak.

Currently got some ETH which will net 10% profit after fees, for a total of 4 days risk...  It doesn't make up for previous losses, but it's nibbling away.

I've got some ETH2 staked, so I'll always (maybe always-always...      ) have some skin in the game if it keeps on rising, and 5% interest forever.

Indicators seem too good for the next while to get out now, so I'm minded to hold for 20% and then maybe take 50% out.

Got £15 on nonsense SHIB which is now £37 two days later. 

[petejh]

I think as usual the answer is it depends! But I think taking profits is the wise approach if you're trading regularly. It's cliched but very true - making money in the stock market is quite easy but losing it is easier.

It depends on what you think you're investing in, over what timescale, what you know about the company and sector, what catalysts are up ahead and of course what your price target is. So for e.g. I opened a small position (1% of portfolio) in ARB last Friday on the theory that bitcoin is more likely to rise than to fall over the coming months to year end (based on some TA I did on the chart after reading northstar's take on the chart). My timescale isn't to year end, as I think btc is too volatile to hold for more than 4-6 weeks at a time* (or hold anything that relies on btc for price movement). Therefore if ARB rise 10-15% I'll be out completely.
Because ARB's only a small position (=small risk to overall portfolio value) I won't bother taking profits, I 'll accept the gain or loss and be selling all. But on larger positions I would take profits and let the momentum run. For e.g. earlier this year I mentioned I was in Cornish Metals. Entered at 10p with around 3% of portfolio, on the theory that exploration of United Downs would show economic grades and widths of tin/copper. Into the rise driven by excitement around the drilling I took profits at a 50% gain, and left the remainder in for the second round of drill assays from united downs. Second round of assays came back disappointing and I sold the remainder the same week for something like 25% profit. 

Meridian Mining (5% of portfolio), sold 50% of holding @ 92c after buying in at 55c. Leaving the remainder for the longer term as they're still in the exciting part of developing Cabacal.

GGP, 2000% gain, sold 50% for profit, kept remainder as I know long-term it's as good a resource as any explorer will ever find and it's going to be either bought out or produce a lot of profit for GGP. In fact I added a big chunk more at 16p last week based on my TA. Happy investor.

Filo, I'll be taking profits at between $15 - 20. Haven't sold any yet despite triple digits % gain. The resource is too good to trim too early, another GGP in the making.
AFM, Centuras, I'll be taking small chunks for big profit margin, but leaving most in for the next 12 months. Partly becuase AFM have just announced becoming debt-free and huge free cash flow going forward, and will be paying a dividend. Partly because they're both in my non-ISA account and selling too much of them would be a big CGT bill.

Polarean was a classic where I think I should have taken some profit at a 10-15% gain a couple of days before the FDA decision - binary event. But it's a small part of my portfolio and because I don't need the money right now and I believe long term they'll huge, I can accept the gut punch for now. If it was a total dog then I'd sell at a loss.

Various others I could list currently either up or down.


It's a combo of knowing the company, so you can have a fair idea of whether long term gain is worth the short term pain of not taking profits (or risk of pain). Or knowing that you're speculating short term and that profits should be grabbed when they can.


Alternatively there are simple formulas to follow where you don't even make any attempt to research fundamentals, you just automatically sell on x% profit because that's the formula you follow. A lot depends on personality I think. I like getting into the weeds of things and I'm also very patient. I'm also quite low in anxiety - I can hold long term through 50% losses without it disrupting my inner peace provided I believe in my research. I'm naturally a mid to long term holder. But I can be dispassionate on short-term trading too, it just takes a bit more mental energy and if you're not very good at the TA side of things it's a timeframe that usually results in loses if you try to do a lot of it.

Taking an honest look at your trading history and see whether or not you're winning overall is essential. If you're not winning then something needs to change. Could be that you need to take profits more often and be les greedy. Conversely, no one ever made a 2000% gain by taking profits early. But then which is more likely..


* I'm aware that btc would have (and might still) made a super long term investment. I'm long term already on other things however. 

[petejh]

I should also add. A major market correction also has to be a consideration. This is where knowing what you're investing in helps. Some of my investments I'd hold through a major correction because cream rises quickly. Some others I'm fully aware would get taken to the cleaners and never return in a major correction. Know which is which. And keeping cash spare to take advantage of a major correction is a low stress way to profit from the opportunity.

[kelvin]

GGP, In fact I added a big chunk more at 16p last week based on my TA. Happy investor

Good call with your TA there Pete - 25% yesterday and another 9% within minutes of opening today.
TA can be some good wizard voodoo when the fundamentals are right.

[petejh]

Yeah I'm pleased with my TA on GGP. The beauty of TA is as you say combining it with understanding the fundamentals. One without the other is a bit too speculative for my liking (although I still do it). I've obviously followed GGP for a long time and know the fundamentals of their resource inside out. I think that makes it easier for me to use TA to spot chart patterns around news and future catalysts.
But this summer I made an effort to learn more TA skills and apply it more to my trading. I made the charts below for GGP sometime around Sept 27th, because I'd spotted 4 bullish indicators aligning towards a decision point around now.

In the charts below there are 4 bullish indicators:
1. Bullish divergence on the weekly macd histogram (marked by straight line). The divergence hadn't confirmed, confirmation required the weekly histogram to turn positive, or just less negative. It turned positive this week
2. Descending wedge pattern on weekly/daily. Price broke out of the pattern and hadn't fallen back in. Instead it was riding along the top of the descending wedge boundary.
3. Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from the swing high 38p is 15.8p. The 61.8 level is a strong level of resistance.
4. Arc support pattern forming following the fall from the swing high. Multiple touch points on left. Bottom of the arc corresponds to Fib 61.8 level and also to the apex of the descending bullish wedge. Arc patterns are hard to draw accurately until they start forming touch points on the middle and right. So far it's acting accurately but we'll see how it develops with touch points on right.

Any one of those signals by themselves is not meaningful. To have all 4 signals together, pointing to a moment in time when the Havieron PFS is due to be released and when the technical picture for gold long term suggests a near-term reversal of the recent gold price downtrend.. adds up to quite a compelling combination of bullish signals that suggests a strong probability the price will react higher from a certain decision point.

I post this because some here may find the TA side of things interesting. Also because a while back some people (since departed) were saying charting and TA is 'reading tea-leaves'. I know why they think this, but they don't know enough about what they're talking about to have an informed opinion. It isn't voodoo at all, it's just learning to spot where the probabilities are more in favour than against. Nothing is guaranteed, it's just more or less probable. As anyone can learn if they put their mind to learning the subject.


Sept 27th
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Based on the Sept 27th chart I bought 183k shares for 16.3p, based on thinking it had bottomed due to the TA. Sold them into the rise today for 22.4p for a nice 6-figure profit in a week (still hold 1.4m shares as it's a long-term keeper).

[kelvin]

Yeah, the arc seems the hardest thing to get right and I guess you'll redraw depending on what's announced? I have no idea how it works.
I've a good friend who's only used TA and only on juniors for a while now, no DD at all and he says the arc causes him the most trouble.
His biggest gain this year was Kodal, pure TA and he was out just before it started heading down properly.
Buying in is definitely my issue, well, the timing of it. Normally too early or too late and my thinking is that TA is the biggest help there. Not a problem if you're long term tho.
I've had money in the stock market one way or another since the mid nineties but it's only this summer I've been doing my own thing.
Yesterday was a green day across the board, apart from one etf, and EMO and GGP made it a good day.

[petejh]

I hear you. Although buying a year early is fine if you've the patience and funds. Buying a day late is far worse!

[kelvin]

I hear you. Although buying a year early is fine if you've the patience and funds. Buying a day late is far worse!

Precisely.

I'm also it seems poor at buying the dip when I already own something that's down. Happy to sit with a big drop but not keen to put more money in despite knowing the fundamentals are good. I think that's were TA would help me, providing the necessary nudge to average down.

The bitcoin I bought on Sunday was purely down to said friend's TA and that's up 10%.
TA is something else to read up on I guess.

[petejh]

Yeah, the arc seems the hardest thing to get right and I guess you'll redraw depending on what's announced? I have no idea how it works.

Not redraw no. That would be tail wagging dog.
The price action defines the arc, not the other way around.  If price breaks through the arc then the arc fails, and the probability it was suggesting has turned out not to be the reality.
Arcs *can* be stretched to accommodate revised data, the left-hand touch points suggest the formation of an arc of probability, the middle and right-hand touch points confirm that probability is playing out in reality.
As is currently happening with Bitcoin, another arc pattern in play.

[kelvin]

Yeah, the arc seems the hardest thing to get right and I guess you'll redraw depending on what's announced? I have no idea how it works.

Not redraw no. That would be tail wagging dog.
The price action defines the arc, not the other way around.  If price breaks through the arc then the arc fails, and the probability it was suggesting has turned out not to be the reality.
Arcs *can* be stretched to accommodate revised data, the left-hand touch points suggest the formation of an arc of probability, the middle and right-hand touch points confirm that probability is playing out in reality.
As is currently happening with Bitcoin, another arc pattern in play.

Cheers Pete for the explanation - I'd wrongly assumed that the two outer actions would always adjust the arc.
Definitely on the to do and understand list 😜

[largeruk]

Sept 27th
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@petejh Is it just me that can't see the images/charts you posted?