[Offwidth]

Nothing here on this!?

https://twitter.com/aliceemross/status/1376542928705835014?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1376542928705835014%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2Flive%2F2021%2Fmar%2F30%2Fmarkets-fallout-archegos-hedge-fund-margin-calls-ftse-dow-eurozone-inflation-business-live

Multi-billion loses for many major banks....with regulation like 2008 never happened.

[petejh]

Why would there be? This thread is more about insights into what everyday people can invest in to hopefully grow their wealth.

The cycle of boom/bust is endless, and caused by greed. If you think there'll ever be a time when regulations prevent incredibly wealthy people from taking increasingly higher risk with other people's leverage to become slightly more wealthy then you're naïve.

[sdm]

Good straight-talking piece in the Independent about the environmental impact due to the energy consumption required by Bitcoin.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/opinion/bitcoin-mining-environment-climate-change-b1822426.html

I disagree that it's a good article. Bitcoin mining is extremely wasteful and other cryptocurrencies will surpass bitcoin in the long term in part due to being less wasteful*. There is a valid point there that Bitcoin needs to adapt to be less damaging if it is to succeed but without a like-for-like comparison with the alternatives, the article is no more than the usual hyperbolic rantings that you expect from de Vries. Comparing Bitcoin to the traditional banking, payments and financial services sector or gold mining and custody would be far more useful than irrelevant comparisons to cities/countries/data centres etc.

For governmental regulation to reduce the environmental damage from Bitcoin will depend almost entirely on China as 70% of the hash rate comes from China due to their cheap energy. China isn't likely to disincentivise a technology that is transferring financial power from the West to China.

* The more important factor is that bitcoin can only function as a store of value, it cannot function as a currency and it lacks the additional utilities of other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's raison d'être is that it is decentralised and secure. In order to achieve high volumes of fast, cheap transactions, it relies on the lightning network which is neither decentralised nor secure. Unless that changes, it will never be useful as a currency.

[petejh]

I think you've misunderstood, I'm not 'pro' or 'con' bitcoin - I don't have any strong opinion on it. I only use btc as a short-term trade based on TA. Last time I traded it I made 170% in 3 weeks then got out again. I'm currently back in at $55k, awaiting the next spike up and will get out again with profits. I'm not interested in BTC for its long-term utility or lack of.

I just posted the article for info, as it highlights the energy cost of btc in simple to understand terms. As Fultonius points out there are also less energy-intensive alternatives if you want to take a punt on crypto. Long term, I won't be surprised to see a concerted global effort to impose some kind of governmental control on btc transactions, using the energy-cost angle amongst other methods. Perhaps a push to incentivise green mining by sanctioning. I did notice something this morning* from Argo Blockchain about a push for greener mining of btc, but as you say as long as the dirty energy option is cheaper the financial incentive will have negative consequences. 

Also, reminds me of the hypocrisy of Elon Musk and Tesla - marketing its green credentials while it makes most of its turnover (way more than from selling electric vehicles) by selling its US carbon credits to polluting companies, and by investing billions in dirty-energy intensive bitcoin!


*edit, here it is: https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/argo-blockchain-jumps-on-green-crypto-mining-pool-launch

[teestub]

Think we will see $100k this time Pete?

[sdm]

I think we're in general agreement Pete, except I don't think it does highlight the energy cost in useful or simple to understand terms.

[petejh]

Think we will see $100k this time Pete?

$85k the area being predicted by various chartists who’ve proved reliable in the past. I’ll be selling if it hits $78k.

$100k also being seriously predicted, it’s the obvious psychological target.. wouldn’t be surprised to see it run up to and above before a whopping fall.

[Bradders]

I'm not interested in BTC for its long-term utility or lack of.

Who the hell is?! Bitcoin is about gambling in the hope of getting rich, nothing more, anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves in my opinion.

[petejh]

Quite. Although there are so many traders pumping it that, as a gamble, it’s a pretty easy one to make money from providing you follow some simple self-imposed rules - such as buying the large dips and not FOMO chasing a rising price.

[Offwidth]

Why would there be? This thread is more about insights into what everyday people can invest in to hopefully grow their wealth.

The cycle of boom/bust is endless, and caused by greed. If you think there'll ever be a time when regulations prevent incredibly wealthy people from taking increasingly higher risk with other people's leverage to become slightly more wealthy then you're naïve.

Maybe because everyday people can easily get caught up in the waves created by such huge regulatory failures, given the interconnectivity of the markets. Maybe also those pedalling such concerns as pointless are the naive ones.

[Falling Down]

Why would there be? This thread is more about insights into what everyday people can invest in to hopefully grow their wealth.

Except that what happened on Friday is still unfolding and could have been (and maybe still is as the dust isn’t yet settled) a Lehman’s type event that leads to all sorts of contagion issues impacting the markets, investments and so on.

It’s an interesting story nevertheless.

[petejh]

Why would there be? This thread is more about insights into what everyday people can invest in to hopefully grow their wealth.

The cycle of boom/bust is endless, and caused by greed. If you think there'll ever be a time when regulations prevent incredibly wealthy people from taking increasingly higher risk with other people's leverage to become slightly more wealthy then you're naïve.

Maybe because everyday people can easily get caught up in the waves created by such huge regulatory failures, given the interconnectivity of the markets. Maybe also those pedalling such concerns as pointless are the naive ones.

This should be blatantly evident to anyone who invests. There are very good reasons for only investing what you can afford to lose - because you could lose it!
What exactly is your point? Investing is risky? You don't say. Big forces outside our control can affect us? Thanks for pointing out the obvious.
I'm not saying those concerns are 'pointless', I'm saying if you invest you'd be wise to learn about wider market forces and potential black swans, but you can't do anything to affect those market forces outside our control so you either accept the risks inherent in the market or you stay out and don't take risks. This thread is about investing.

[Offwidth]

Maybe because there are so many serious victims of investments gone wrong that it's nothing like blatently evident. Maybe because, like all gambling, many people lose money they cant afford to, and sometimes end up behaving very unethically. If all investment was money people could always afford to lose and was responsibly placed I would have fewer concerns. Most people accept betting sites need better social protections and I think the same applies to speculative investment threads, especially when the large investment players have the dice fixed to benefit them, as this means you need to be very clever and very well informed. The whole idea of a Black Swan is even experts miss them.

A house is an investment that saves you rent costs and you get to live in it. A pension is a comforting thing to have for your old age. Buying things you need outright saves you more expensive payment systems. Using tax free £20,000 annual ISA allowances is wise if you can afford it. Speculative investment is for experts who can dedicate significant time to it and afford the hits. As much as your posts might help some sensible investors (bad luck aside), they might tempt others into trouble.

[petejh]

There’s so much I think is wrong about that post. I’m not going to bother arguing against most of your points, all that needs saying is this thread is about sharing *ideas for investing in shares*. It would be pretty rubbish for that if it was made up of people pessimistically sucking air through their teeth and discouraging investing in shares.

There are other threads if you’re interested discussing football, painting, *the economy*, covid, bouldering, long and mostly free mountain routes, coffee, TV, training, diet, globalisation and the limits of growth, male toxicity, and even news of significant ascents.
Some of those things carry inherent risks of something bad happening, which could impact your health and happiness.

If you’d like to start a new thread you’re free to - you could call it ‘Don’t Lose Your Shirt.. Offwidth’s Anti Speculative Investing thread’.

By the way, my most successful investment is in my ISA account - it gave a life-changing tax free gain. ISA’s are a great way for the everyday person to improve their lot.

[RobK]

As much as your posts might help some sensible investors (bad luck aside), they might tempt others into trouble.

Maybe we shouldn't discuss highballs on other threads then. In case someone falls off and hurts themselves?

[kac]

Its not quite the same though because its a climbing forum. The same analogy would be people suggesting the fun of highballs on an investing forum. Social media is full of encouragement to invest in bitcoin and some pretty speculative investments and it is not easy to differentiate between gambling and investing. Personally I'd rather it wasn't on the forum so this is a space where the only risky behaviour encouraged is climbing.

[Offwidth]

I think the comparative position for climbing is risk is front and centre and experts overcome that with skill and accidents are surprisingly rare. If climbers ended up with a sudden mass of accidents because of some external factor, or from too regular individual errors, it would be a big worry. In the investment business the black swans are normally just a bump in the road for the big investment banks and carnage for large numbers of smaller investors. Even in more normal times investment gambles lead to many big losses where detailed warnings on risk were buried in small print or missing.  The skill in avoiding risk in speculative investment is way more like alpine risk to me ...big rewards but with risk not always avoidable by skill. Then we have the thorny issue of investment ethics.

I've enjoyed this thread but just want to urge a little caution and some consideration of responsible investment. My personal view is as nations we don't learn proper lessons about regulation so as part of a globalised capitalist system are doomed to have a crash that will really hammer our globalised markets. 2008 came very close to that. People get hurt in crashes .... as a simple example pre 2008 those Icelandic banks seemed a fantastic safe bet for investors and now many UK councils are counting the cost.

[petejh]

All of which can be discussed in threads about the economy, globalisation, and the finite limits of capitalism etc. etc.

There's no justification for hijacking this thread with your concerns about the global economy and the failure of the capitalist system to regulate itself. That's the water we all swim in, we can't alter it. But some of us do enjoy trying to get a little ride on the waves knowing well the risks.

I get that the investment thread jars with the political worldview of many of UKB's users. Again that's no justification for hijacking this thread with your concerns. 

Poll is up. Happy to see it locked/logged if it's not what UKB users like to see in their world.

[Bradders]

this thread is about sharing *ideas for investing in shares*

Don't agree with you at all on that Pete; that may have been your original intention in starting the thread, but in my mind this is, and should be, a general discussion thread on all things investing. If you want to post ideas then you're free to do so, but likewise others should be free to say where they think things are too risky, discuss safer methods of investing, investing news, etc. I think that's quite an important thread to have really as it's an important part of practically everyone's lives whether they know it or not. And arguably it isn't covered by any of the other threads.

[Will Hunt]

 

This is a very specific thread for Pete to be bullish about companies that dig stuff out of the ground. Everyone get balls deep in tin - we're going to the moon. Paper hands bitches worrying about risk are killing the buzz.

[abarro81]

Imagine what would happen if someone started a base jumping thread on here... Although I agree with Bradders re this seeming like an ok place for broader discussion of the pros/cons/risks too.

[petejh]

This is a very specific thread for Pete to be bullish about companies that dig stuff out of the ground. Everyone get balls deep in tin - we're going to the moon. Paper hands bitches worrying about risk are killing the buzz.

Pleased I have at least one convert. Our Tesla moonbase will need a lot of tin, and gold for the taps.

[petejh]

Imagine what would happen if someone started a base jumping thread on here... Although I agree with Bradders re this seeming like an ok place for broader discussion of the pros/cons/risks too.

Problem with that is it would just turn into another debate thread, with any useful tips hidden among the show of intellectual masturbation by UKB's academic committee. None of which helps with the simple binary process of buying or selling based on research and price.

[abarro81]

Ok, maybe we could have this and then a "general" investing/economics thread. I don't really mind that much either way.

[mburke]

I think a general thread has more to offer, anything else is just guessing and then at random intervals being right or wrong.