[Bradders]

Another thought for Fultonius - I'm half convincing myself here.

Have a think about how you'd feel if your portfolio dropped by 5, 10, 15, 50%. Try to visualise what it would feel like if you had lost that sort of value (on paper), and decide how that would affect you. A useful exercise in understanding what your risk tolerance level looks like.

[JohnM]

You should only think about selling some/all of your stocks if a) you will need the cash in the medium to long(ish) term or b) you think you paid too much for them and they were overvalued when you bought them. If you bought them at a fair price then they will always return to at least that level and probably go higher in the future.

I am keeping all my positions at the moment despite an increasing number of doom mongers for both of the reasons above. I am just not putting any more in for the near future so I can hold cash for when stocks drop 30%-50% and I can buy in.

I am more interested in making sure I am positioned to take advantage of the next bull run in crypto. I sold half my Bitcoin way too early but have covered my positions and much more with Ether, Stellar Lumens and XRP. Just waiting to see if the prices drop to what I am willing to pay. I had already decided this a while ago but there is a little voice in my head telling me to buy in now because of FOMO! I will stick to my guns though as it has served me well so far. Allegedly Ether dropped to $700 for an hour overnight on one exchange. That didn't show on mine or any of the others (not sure of the reason to be honest) but that it is a price I would have been willing to buy in hard. I learnt my lesson to be patient with Ether after selling a chunk of mine at £400. Bitcoin and the main altcoins could come down and stagnate for a while but you just have to be patient I learned. I look at the 2025 or even the 2030 predictions (which are nonsense) but even if I take the lowest prediction it is still worth holding on, especially if you can sell some during intermittent bulls and cover your original investment.     

[RobK]

AMTE Power are looking to begin listing on AIM next month. They are one of the few commercial battery manufacturers in the UK at the moment. There's been various reports linking them to Britishvolt (the company behind the proposed UK 'gigaplant' that has kept popping up in the news in various locations), but nothing concrete. They currently have there own relatively small scale (by global standards) plant in Thurso. Something to at least keep an eye on.

[Jerry Morefat]

Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D

Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same

You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.

I'd be genuinely interested if you could provide compelling statistical evidence as to why tomtom is wrong. Personally I don't find lines of arguments along the lines of "so and so's technical analysis has been accurate over the last 12 months" very compelling.

[Bradders]

Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D

Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same

You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.

I'd be genuinely interested if you could provide compelling statistical evidence as to why tomtom is wrong. Personally I don't find lines of arguments along the lines of "so and so's technical analysis has been accurate over the last 12 months" very compelling.

Especially when much of the recent movement appears to have been driven by Elon Musk's Twitter account.

[Bradders]

You should only think about selling some/all of your stocks if a) you will need the cash in the medium to long(ish) term or b) you think you paid too much for them and they were overvalued when you bought them. If you bought them at a fair price then they will always return to at least that level and probably go higher in the future.     

This is a great point. You need to think through the investment case for each of your holdings. Does it still make sense? Are the reasons you chose that investment over another still holding true? Is there anything out there that makes more sense or looks more attractive right now?

As an example, if you hold Scottish Mortgage and you selected that fund because you think the managers are good stock pickers and there is the potential for growth in the technology sector, do those things still hold true? If they do, why would you sell?

Consider also the reasons bubbles form, and where. Which sectors / areas of the market are actually affected? As an example, Tesla has been looking extremely over valued recently, but does that extend to the rest of the S&P500?

[petejh]

Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D

Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same

You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.

I'd be genuinely interested if you could provide compelling statistical evidence as to why tomtom is wrong. Personally I don't find lines of arguments along the lines of "so and so's technical analysis has been accurate over the last 12 months" very compelling.

I'm not here for a debate on the merits of TA. Growing wealth is the objective, not debating the merits of different forms of research and market signals. Take it, leave it. Use it, don't use it. I'm not interested in providing you with a case for or against and you aren't supposed to be compelled by anything here.

[Fultonius]

You should only think about selling some/all of your stocks if a) you will need the cash in the medium to long(ish) term or b) you think you paid too much for them and they were overvalued when you bought them. If you bought them at a fair price then they will always return to at least that level and probably go higher in the future.

I am keeping all my positions at the moment despite an increasing number of doom mongers for both of the reasons above. I am just not putting any more in for the near future so I can hold cash for when stocks drop 30%-50% and I can buy in.

I am more interested in making sure I am positioned to take advantage of the next bull run in crypto. I sold half my Bitcoin way too early but have covered my positions and much more with Ether, Stellar Lumens and XRP. Just waiting to see if the prices drop to what I am willing to pay. I had already decided this a while ago but there is a little voice in my head telling me to buy in now because of FOMO! I will stick to my guns though as it has served me well so far. Allegedly Ether dropped to $700 for an hour overnight on one exchange. That didn't show on mine or any of the others (not sure of the reason to be honest) but that it is a price I would have been willing to buy in hard. I learnt my lesson to be patient with Ether after selling a chunk of mine at £400. Bitcoin and the main altcoins could come down and stagnate for a while but you just have to be patient I learned. I look at the 2025 or even the 2030 predictions (which are nonsense) but even if I take the lowest prediction it is still worth holding on, especially if you can sell some during intermittent bulls and cover your original investment.     

Thanks for the perspective.

> If things went shit, I'd be able to hold on and ride out - no problems.
> But, I've put about 60% of my available funds into one Equity Fund https://www.triodos.co.uk/ethical-investments/pioneer-impact-fund/LU0785618660
> It's doing well, and the fundamental reason why I support it still stands, if not gets stronger.

I *really* don't want to get into the game of trying to "game the market". Past history says I'm shit at it, and it's stressful. Not my game.

But, I guess I'm a little nervous that I've over committed, and given the doom news, am considering if it may may sense to reduce my exposure a bit, and maybe do something more risk averse with it (pay off some mortgage for example). I've got nowt to spend money on just now, so can see me saving for the next 6 months or so, part of me thinks it might make sense to have a reserve of cash that I could use to buy shares if/when the market tanks. If it doesn't, I can pay off more mortgage or something sensible.

But yeah, if it went down 50%, I'd just have to sit it out for the long haul. I can't see any desperate need for it any time soon.

Cheers all!

[petejh]

You should only think about selling some/all of your stocks if a) you will need the cash in the medium to long(ish) term or b) you think you paid too much for them and they were overvalued when you bought them. If you bought them at a fair price then they will always return to at least that level and probably go higher in the future.

I am keeping all my positions at the moment despite an increasing number of doom mongers for both of the reasons above. I am just not putting any more in for the near future so I can hold cash for when stocks drop 30%-50% and I can buy in.

I am more interested in making sure I am positioned to take advantage of the next bull run in crypto. I sold half my Bitcoin way too early but have covered my positions and much more with Ether, Stellar Lumens and XRP. Just waiting to see if the prices drop to what I am willing to pay. I had already decided this a while ago but there is a little voice in my head telling me to buy in now because of FOMO! I will stick to my guns though as it has served me well so far. Allegedly Ether dropped to $700 for an hour overnight on one exchange. That didn't show on mine or any of the others (not sure of the reason to be honest) but that it is a price I would have been willing to buy in hard. I learnt my lesson to be patient with Ether after selling a chunk of mine at £400. Bitcoin and the main altcoins could come down and stagnate for a while but you just have to be patient I learned. I look at the 2025 or even the 2030 predictions (which are nonsense) but even if I take the lowest prediction it is still worth holding on, especially if you can sell some during intermittent bulls and cover your original investment.     

It's not quite as simple as that. It also depends how much you've gained (or lost) since the original investment. It shouldn't, but the size of the gain affects the future risk/reward. With large gains and high-risk market conditions it's an easy decision to take money off the table. And while good companies will still be good during and after a market correction, they still get dragged down with the fall. Timing is impossible but risk/reward can be tailored to each person's needs.

A simple formula from someone smart:

''Which would disappoint you more -- if you stay in and it halved, or you got out and it doubled.
Quantify your disappointment level in each case on a scale of 1-10.
But then, make your best guess as to the likelihood of those outcomes, percentage-wise.
Adjust those percentages if you are naturally a pessimist or an optimist to reflect your tendency.
And then, multiply the percentages by your disappointment level.

If the results aren't roughly balanced, you may want to rebalance your share holdings.''
 

[Bradders]

> But, I've put about 60% of my available funds into one Equity Fund https://www.triodos.co.uk/ethical-investments/pioneer-impact-fund/LU0785618660

Diversify, diversify, diversify!!

60% in one fund is a lot, in my personal view. 15-20 funds as a maximum with no more than 30% in any one is a more typical example of a well diversified portfolio.

[Jerry Morefat]

Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D

Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same

You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.

I'd be genuinely interested if you could provide compelling statistical evidence as to why tomtom is wrong. Personally I don't find lines of arguments along the lines of "so and so's technical analysis has been accurate over the last 12 months" very compelling.

I'm not here for a debate on the merits of TA. Growing wealth is the objective, not debating the merits of different forms of research and market signals. Take it, leave it. Use it, don't use it. I'm not interested in providing you with a case for or against and you aren't supposed to be compelled by anything here.

I'll take that to mean you can't provide any evidence then  . I'll leave you to your magic beans now 🙂.

[petejh]

 

Enjoy your research.

[shark]

Diversify, diversify, diversify!!

60% in one fund is a lot, in my personal view. 15-20 funds as a maximum with no more than 30% in any one is a more typical example of a well diversified portfolio.

Since dumping Wynnstay WYN yesterday (mentioned earlier in the thread) I have probably 60% in one illiquid AIM listed company 

[ali k]

Pete - you’ve just stated categorically that another poster was wrong. Then tacked on an insult about him ‘staying poor’. Then when someone else asked (quite politely) why you were so sure they were wrong you’ve shut the conversation down saying that you’re just not interested in debate. Rude.

[petejh]

This isn't a debating thread. It's a thread to share stock ideas. If someone doesn't agree with an idea, then they have no reason to do anything about it and there's no benefit in trying to change minds because nobody is trying to convince you of anything. If it turns into a debate every time someone sees something they don't agree with then the thread is pointless and just another ukb endless debating club. If you want to debate, go to another thread. And if it is going to turn into a debating thread, then I'm definitely out.

[teestub]

Surely you’ve been on UKB long enough now to know that you have literally zero say in how threads one has started develop once they gain a head of steam 😂

[ali k]

You’ve misunderstood. I’m not trying to convince you to debate on this thread. Just to be less rude. And not throw in unnecessary insults. If you don’t want a debate there’s ways to say it...and then there’s how you said it.

[Will Hunt]

Please watch this video.



For more information, please rewatch.

[petejh]

Pete - you’ve just stated categorically that another poster was wrong. Then tacked on an insult about him ‘staying poor’. Then when someone else asked (quite politely) why you were so sure they were wrong you’ve shut the conversation down saying that you’re just not interested in debate. Rude.

You’ve misunderstood. I’m not trying to convince you to debate on this thread. Just to be less rude. And not throw in unnecessary insults. If you don’t want a debate there’s ways to say it...and then there’s how you said it.

Perhaps I should have made it clearer so that TT wasn't so butt hurt - it's a bitcoin meme for fuck sake, said tongue in cheek. I guess the humour was lost in here.    Thanks for your lecture.

[Sidehaas]

This is an interesting thread guys. Quick question I'm hoping someone could help with. Hopefully this isn't too off topic.
In the past I've had investments in a couple of index trackers - FTSE 100, FTSE small caps. Both did ok but I cashed them out to reduce the size of the new mortgage when we moved house. I'm now ready to invest again.

Part of me wants to get properly involved with a greater range of investments but being honest with myself I really don't have the time to do proper research, so I'm more inclined to just buy in to some index trackers or some very well diversified funds than any specific stocks, to mitigate the risk of making a bad choice. I've got a decent amount to invest and a long time horizon. The problem is, I would like to avoid investing in specific sectors. Is there a way to do this? Eg, a FTSE tracker that excludes aerospace and defence, or an international tracker that excludes oil and gas? I'm aware of the various "sustainable" investments but looking for something more specific. I'm not sure if something like this exists?
Thanks

[ali k]

You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.

Perhaps I should have made it clearer so that TT wasn't so butt hurt - it's a bitcoin meme for fuck sake, said tongue in cheek. I guess the humour was lost in here.

Ah ok gotcha. Patronising bantz. Good one.

[Snoops]

You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.

Perhaps I should have made it clearer so that TT wasn't so butt hurt - it's a bitcoin meme for fuck sake, said tongue in cheek. I guess the humour was lost in here.

Ah ok gotcha. Patronising bantz. Good one.

It’s not patronising, I don’t own Bitcoin and am aware, it’s a famous meme, and the Bitcoiners stole it from the hedge fund bankers.
Can we get back on topic please the posts were interesting.

[Bradders]

If we're making up arbitrary rules for what's allowed in this thread, I reckon all future talk of Bitcoin should be banned. The is the "investor's" thread, and Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a gamble.

[chris j]

Part of me wants to get properly involved with a greater range of investments but being honest with myself I really don't have the time to do proper research, so I'm more inclined to just buy in to some index trackers or some very well diversified funds than any specific stocks, to mitigate the risk of making a bad choice. I've got a decent amount to invest and a long time horizon. The problem is, I would like to avoid investing in specific sectors. Is there a way to do this? Eg, a FTSE tracker that excludes aerospace and defence, or an international tracker that excludes oil and gas? I'm aware of the various "sustainable" investments but looking for something more specific. I'm not sure if something like this exists?
Thanks

Would ETFs be appropriate, there seems to be some for every possible sector?

Near the bottom of the page under 'ETFs by theme' there's a 'socially responsible' option which might have what you're looking for.

https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-lists.html

[ali k]

If we're making up arbitrary rules for what's allowed in this thread, I reckon all future talk of Bitcoin should be banned. The is the "investor's" thread, and Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a gamble.

Maybe the title needs changing to “UKB users’ list of stock picks”. No debate. No conversation. No cryptocurrency.