What forecast are you using, that's exactly what was predicted?
Stick to the Met Office.
Quote from: Johnny Brown on December 08, 2020, 01:05:57 pmStick to the Met Office.If I could add, not just the Met Office but their mountain forecast plus the pressure chart and rain radar are really useful. The Norwegian site is decent too https://www.yr.no/en
Whilst I use yr.no for other mountain areas I think it’s overly optimistic for the Peak.
Drizzly and dank looking at Burbage not as forecast. Again. Driving on to the Tor instead
Quote from: T_B on December 08, 2020, 01:47:16 pmWhilst I use yr.no for other mountain areas I think it’s overly optimistic for the Peak.Ditto for Yorks grit areas, also never seems to pick up dankness as well as the ominous met office 20% grey cloud forecast does.
What page do you use to look at the Synoptics? I know you can see the fronts on the met office vids but sure there must be a better resource.
For example, a 70% chance of rain represents a 7 in 10 chance that precipitation will fall at some point during that period.
This seems to be happening every weekend at the moment, I'm at the crag it's raining and metoffice is telling me it's 5 to 10% chance of rain.
I’ve always taken the 10% as it being likely to rain for 10% of that period, rather than a 10% chance of it raining.
I think the trick is not to take a football supporters approach to forecasts. If you look at a couple and they're different, rather than trying to pick a winner take the message that there is significant uncertainty. If we're a day or so ahead I'd then look at the synoptics, if it's now I don't bother with forecasts much at all and just look at radar and satellite data.
So their forecast is just shit then and doesn’t match the satellite data, or Highrepute is just unlucky!
Met office abs MWIS will often say in their written reports that there’s uncertainty, particularly when there’s storm systems fucking shit up. I think also as climbers what we want out of a forecast is a lot more than most people. For example it’s not raining up here today but there’s zero chance of anything drying out. Most people going out for a walk would be happy with the ‘not raining’ bit and maybe look at cloud level, wind and visibility. We want to know how long it will take Earl crag to dry out when it’s raining.
the consistent shitness/uncertainty of the forecast in what is fundamentally a pretty flat country is amazing.
When people say that forecasts are shit are they not just judging them against a utopian ideal that’s never actually existed? They’re surely better now than they’ve ever been.
It's really not, we're on a west coast island which is slap bang at the wavering latitude of the polar front, with a climate that should be much colder but is kept anomalously warm by a ocean current. It's one of the least predictable places in the world.
I would really like some sort of 'percentage uncertainty' metric on a forecast as currently I don't think there is a way to know this without being a meteorologist.
Meteoblue have a 'predictability' percentage for each day's forecast. I also like that they (and the Windy app) show the predictions of multiple models, helpful for quickly seeing if there's general agreement or not.