[petejh]

On 'planned phased responses and clear road maps', I find it hard-to-impossible to get too worked up about the nature of this or most other government's responses in the face of covid. Except for Bolsonaro and Trump who are obviously negligent and uncaring, most western democracies' responses appear to me to be quite predictably a bit chaotic and a bit shit. Clearly major health and economic impacts need to be balanced, as well as political considerations. Cue the noise and chaos of conflicting opinions and agendas with all the usual voices saying most of the usual things.
Throw into the mix the positive or negative effects of geography and exposure to travel for business or tourism. The preferable situations as far as modern western democracies go seems either to be a sparsely-populated country in a remote region (Norway, Sweden, Finland, New Zealand, Canada, Australia), ideally one with natural sea or land borders which make rapid closure to travel relatively easy (Austria/Switzerland, Norway etc., New Zealand/Australia), ideally relatively low travel numbers initially (Norway etc., Austria, NZ/Australia), or a dictatorship to stamp on the mole's head (China).

Either that or a less dysfunctional society than is the norm for our times.. Germany buck the trend - high travel, not remote nor sparsely-populated, and make us all look terrible. Perhaps because they are a very unchaotic society..

[Paul B]

It definitely appears to have a relation to indoor socialisation either in bars or houses. We have had a couple of cases at work but not a lot.

What the video I posted says is that in Oldham, their data analysis suggests that it's work-place transmission which is then taken home and spread quickly in areas of multi-generational households.

The caveat here being I haven't seen such data (which is the same for "most transmission in households").

My lads school had a few issues at first but dropped off now with a few weeks of no cases.

Whereas today I'm cancelling a training event for Wed as an employee has tested positive (following his wife, who is a teacher) and thus the majority of our fairly small office (6 people) are now self-isolating. I think this is the second time the teacher has been required to self-isolate (the first time she tested negative).

[tomtom]

Our headteacher is self isolating - but (fingers crossed) so far only one class bubble in the whole school has had to isolate for two weeks...

[chris j]

Is there anywhere in the UK where the enhanced but short of total lockdown special measures have resulted in a sustained drop in case numbers? Aberdeen is down I think but that was more or less a complete lockdown wasn't it?

[Paul B]

Is there anywhere in the UK where the enhanced but short of total lockdown special measures have resulted in a sustained drop in case numbers? Aberdeen is down I think but that was more or less a complete lockdown wasn't it?

Luton and Leicester were used by Hancock as examples of local measures working (at the same time he suggested it was poor adherence elsewhere that was the main issue - this didn't seem to go down too well).

[fatneck]

The school I'm a governor at has two year groups and 4 teachers self-isolating.

Foodbank deliveries are ramping up again and we are in discussion with the council about the possibility of re-opening Shielding which, though not our remit, would make a massive difference to a lot of people and considerably reduce the load on us as a small charity. As it stands, vulnerable people are being told to stay indoors but not to "Shield", thus handily removing the need to reinstate the government parcel delivery process...

The Climbing Hangars have closed down their booking system and sounds like they're preparing to close on Wednesday (this is grapevine info - not confirmed or from an official source).

Thankfully PEX was in good nick last night but who knows whether I'll be able to drive there...

[chris j]

Luton and Leicester were used by Hancock as examples of local measures working (at the same time he suggested it was poor adherence elsewhere that was the main issue - this didn't seem to go down too well).

This piece on the BBC seems to suggest it's only the stricter lockdown period that had any sustained effect in Leicester and the various graphs tbh make me think any lesser efforts are pissing in the wind. Belgium's numbers certainly suggested their rule of 5 had little effect. Which begs what the endgame is - bounce in and out of lockdown until a vaccine arrives? total lockdown until cases are low enough and beg Germany to run our T&T system? What's the collateral damage to society going to be for probably decades to come in any outcome? Who outside nurses, teachers and supermarket delivery drivers will have steady job at the end of it? I genuinely don't know what to think...

Edit - forgot the link

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54239538

[spidermonkey09]

Is there anywhere in the UK where the enhanced but short of total lockdown special measures have resulted in a sustained drop in case numbers? Aberdeen is down I think but that was more or less a complete lockdown wasn't it?

Luton and Leicester were used by Hancock as examples of local measures working (at the same time he suggested it was poor adherence elsewhere that was the main issue - this didn't seem to go down too well).

https://www.ft.com/content/48fae206-6d85-46f0-9ee8-ecb5163411a7

This article is quite good on Leicester; tldr is we cant know for sure whether the lockdown worked or not as cases were falling before it started. Also despite having been under restrictions since March now the rate in Leicester is back around 140, so basically what it was when the first local lockdown was announced and everyone else went to the pub. Meanwhile, anecdotally there are next to no covid patients in the Leicester hospitals.

If as expected, Liverpool gets nailed with a load of restrictions this evening I really feel for them as it was horrible in Leicester when it started; a real feeling of being cut adrift from everyone else as they went to the pub in the sun. Obviously the national picture is a lot worse now but I'm sure it will still sting. Hopefully there will be proper support in place for businesses forced to close, because in Leicester there was fuck all.

[Fiend]

[Paul B]

To be clear, I wasn't commenting on the veracity of Hancock's assertions!

[Sidehaas]

Is there anywhere in the UK where the enhanced but short of total lockdown special measures have resulted in a sustained drop in case numbers? Aberdeen is down I think but that was more or less a complete lockdown wasn't it?

Luton and Leicester were used by Hancock as examples of local measures working (at the same time he suggested it was poor adherence elsewhere that was the main issue - this didn't seem to go down too well).

If as expected, Liverpool gets nailed with a load of restrictions this evening I really feel for them as it was horrible in Leicester when it started; a real feeling of being cut adrift from everyone else as they went to the pub in the sun. Obviously the national picture is a lot worse now but I'm sure it will still sting. Hopefully there will be proper support in place for businesses forced to close, because in Leicester there was fuck all.

Your last sentence is nail on head. The local restrictions will sting but not as much as it might have done if we had just been left to rot with no concrete action. Apart from people dying, some places here are already shutting as I said above - whether told to or not - and infection rates are so high that very few people are now behaving normally anyway. There's been a massive change in behaviour since about 3 weeks ago when it became clear the wheels had come off. My biggest worry was that this would continue but no actual forced closures would happen and the government would therefore justify not paying the area or affected workers any extra cash. This could have led to everywhere shutting permanently. If there is a reasonable furlough-light and a clear set of goals for coming out of lockdown then it won't be pretty but it'll be the least worst option from the point we are now at.

[ali k]

There also doesn't seem to be any enforcement..

Yes - this is an important/interesting point. UK has always been proud of policing by consent... maybe some of this needs to go now

Enforced by who, though? The police were stretched enough as it was before Covid hit, no thanks to a decade of cuts. The only reason lockdowns worked last time was a result of good will and solidarity among the majority. Now that’s been pissed up the wall and the rules were shown to be a bit...let’s say...flexible by Cummings it’s going to be harder to get any buy in from the public, which is what policing by consent relies on.

[Paul B]

GM Manchester to go into Tier 2:

https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1315636400293806082?s=20

Just learnt Greater Manchester will be placed into tier 2 restrictions via twitter. Apparently there was a government briefing for GM MPs but I can’t provide details because I wasn’t invited. I suspect this is because they don’t know where Wigan is. What an absolute shambles

[gme]

Andy Burnham was just on the news saying as much. He says they fought hard to stay in tier 2 and keep the pubs open as there was no evidence that them being open was causing the rates to go up.

Would be nice to see what data he’s working on that shows that.

[tomtom]

Luton and Leicester were used by Hancock as examples of local measures working (at the same time he suggested it was poor adherence elsewhere that was the main issue - this didn't seem to go down too well).

This piece on the BBC seems to suggest it's only the stricter lockdown period that had any sustained effect in Leicester and the various graphs tbh make me think any lesser efforts are pissing in the wind. Belgium's numbers certainly suggested their rule of 5 had little effect. Which begs what the endgame is - bounce in and out of lockdown until a vaccine arrives? total lockdown until cases are low enough and beg Germany to run our T&T system? What's the collateral damage to society going to be for probably decades to come in any outcome? Who outside nurses, teachers and supermarket delivery drivers will have steady job at the end of it? I genuinely don't know what to think...

Edit - forgot the link

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54239538

Chris - I think there’s legs in my Barbers plan...

He suggested rolling 2 week closures of all shops (except essential) and full lockdown then 2 weeks off. He recons he’d do the same business but not lose any customers that way. He suggested most of the small shopkeepers felt the same.

But yes - I agree the only thing that seems to work is severely restricting any contact between people. And if folk are not clever enough to figure out what that means - or ignore it - then you have to shut down as many opportunities for it to happen as possible.

[tomtom]

Sorry - lots of posts from me. The whole teir 1-3 messaging is crap too - case in point that I’m having a WhatsApp discussion at the moment and none of us are sure it 1 is bad or 3 is bad.

Why not traffic light colours? That’s pretty clear right?

[Nutty]

Why not traffic light colours? That’s pretty clear right?

I think that not having traffic light colours is probably because they didn't want the default national level to be green = ok. From what I've read, tier 1 is 'medium risk', so extrapolate from that that tier 2 is 'high' and tier 3 'very high' - for a traffic light this would be amber, red, ? Same way as the the NHS Covid-19 app doesn't have an area risk level below medium in England (though it doesn't have a very high either).

[gme]

I can’t believe you just said that. It’s so fucking simple if people stop looking for faults.

Just look it up.

You know what the tiers are your just being provocative.

Show me anything that the number reduces as the risk goes up.

[gme]

Why not traffic light colours? That’s pretty clear right?

I think that not having traffic light colours is probably because they didn't want the default national level to be green = ok. From what I've read, tier 1 is 'medium risk', so extrapolate from that that tier 2 is 'high' and tier 3 'very high' - for a traffic light this would be amber, red, ? Same way as the the NHS Covid-19 app doesn't have an area risk level below medium in England (though it doesn't have a very high either).

Thankyou.

Also I don’t think tier 3 will be the top. What happens if more controls are added. Green amber red and purple???

[Will Hunt]

Show me anything that the number reduces as the risk goes up.

DEFCON levels...

Honestly though I agree that this is a non-issue. There will be accompanying visuals and even the thickest will have got their heads round it in a day or two.

[Sidehaas]

Just watched BoJo's statement.
Tier 1 = current national measures.
Tier 2 = current measures in Merseyside, Warrington and North East. IE like GM but also no socialising with non household members indoors (pubs etc, but will probably also have some effect on walls.)
Tier 3 = Tier 2 measures plus pubs and bars closed, plus other measures as agreed with local authorities. See below. Basically this means Tier 3 is open-ended so there is no need for a Tier 4.

Only agreed Tier 3 place is Merseyside. As well as the above, some other stuff will be shut which included gyms and leisure centres, also betting shops, gaming centres and casinos (but not restaurants or cafes). So you would have to assume climbing walls will be shut. Nothing was said about non-essential travel so I think that must be remaining just as guidance and we can at least keep climbing outside. All of this may or may not be replicated for other areas that become Tier 3.

Tier 2 is everyone else currently under any local restrictions, plus Nottinghamshire, East/West Cheshire and some undefined part of High Peak.

BoJo strongly implied he wanted to put GM, NE and Yorkshire/Humber in to Tier 3 now too but negotiations with local authorities about what that meant in their areas were ongoing. (I didn't think Yorkshire/Humber was currently under any local restrictions?)

[abarro81]

Show me anything that the number reduces as the risk goes up.

DEFCON levels...

Oh come on Will, it's not like that's probably the most famous alert system in the world or anything 

But yes, I also think it will be pretty easy to understand

Tier 2 = current measures in Merseyside, Warrington and North East. IE like GM but also no socialising with non household members indoors (pubs etc, but will probably also have some effect on walls.)

In walls it will be totally absurd - you'll be allowed to go to the wall and climb on the board taking turns with your mate, but only if you don't talk to them too much. Should shut the fuckers up about me kneebaring or toe hooking on the School board at least 

[UnkArl]

I agree the concept of traffic lights is much more simple and clear. However, I heard on the radio this morning that the “levels” 1-3 are supposed to be “medium”, “high” and “very high”. I wouldn’t equate a green traffic light with “medium”. Surely a green light indicates “f*cking go for it” 

[Sidehaas]

Show me anything that the number reduces as the risk goes up.

DEFCON levels...

Oh come on Will, it's not like that's probably the most famous alert system in the world or anything 

But yes, I also think it will be pretty easy to understand

Tier 2 = current measures in Merseyside, Warrington and North East. IE like GM but also no socialising with non household members indoors (pubs etc, but will probably also have some effect on walls.)

In walls it will be totally absurd - you'll be allowed to go to the wall and climb on the board taking turns with your mate, but only if you don't talk to them too much. Should shut the fuckers up about me kneebaring or toe hooking on the School board at least 

Last week the Hangar put up a post saying they could no longer accept groups of mixed households coming in because of the rules that are now Tier 2 - but I don't know if or how they were enforcing it once inside.

[tomtom]

Why not traffic light colours? That’s pretty clear right?

I think that not having traffic light colours is probably because they didn't want the default national level to be green = ok. From what I've read, tier 1 is 'medium risk', so extrapolate from that that tier 2 is 'high' and tier 3 'very high' - for a traffic light this would be amber, red, ? Same way as the the NHS Covid-19 app doesn't have an area risk level below medium in England (though it doesn't have a very high either).

Thankyou.

Also I don’t think tier 3 will be the top. What happens if more controls are added. Green amber red and purple???

Calm down everyone - Flashing red obvs

I dunno - Tiers are something on a cake in my mind not a grading of a level of national restrictions

Anyway - given the general confusion about what means what where and whether there are travel restrictions - or how much food a pub has to serve to remain open... etc.. etc... and it sounds like local areas can haggle whether things like gyms and restaurants can remain open or not. 

Sorry to go on Gav - but the government have had a good few months to think about this - to strategise or ‘war game’ what might happen and how to respond.

I was really hoping this would make things clearer but I’m not sure it really does.