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COVID-19 and the state of politics (Read 53328 times)

mrjonathanr

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Thanks Toby, might also be worth quoting this part of the interview:
Quote from: Anthony Costello, Guardian interview
At the moment we’re at about 65,000 excess deaths, according the Financial Times. I honestly think we could have prevented about 50,000 of them, if we’d gone early like South Korea. I think Sage got it wrong, PHE got it wrong, and Boris Johnson got it wrong.

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Leicester East MP claims there was an 11 day delay before informing the local response.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/05/government-errors-leicester-covid-19-spike


TobyD

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Leicester East MP claims there was an 11 day delay before informing the local response.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/05/government-errors-leicester-covid-19-spike

I'd prefer to hear what you think offwidth, I know we all post links quite a bit but actually discussing it is more interesting.

Although I'm not sure many people think that Johnson is even doing an adequate job at the moment. He's probably going to have to change the Huawei policy too, which makes his earlier decision look a bit foolish.
Bet it'll be Sunak as leader by the next election, unless Gove stabs him in the back.

tomtom

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BJ is the stooge to push a no deal brexit through - then disposed of and Sunak put in charge. Next Spring/Summer I recon.

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I'd prefer to hear what you think offwidth.
Bet it'll be Sunak as leader by the next election, unless Gove stabs him in the back.

I think it's almost beyond farce they could lockdown a city after such an information delay and it's no surprise the Mayor is seperately furious. All that time lost to local health staff, when they could have been getting on with work to prevent further infection.

Sunak lives amongst jackals and is well down the perceived food chain. He will almost certainly be a victim of any early Boris departure (given the way things are going that might even be early next year). Tory MPs removed their hero Maggie so they won't blink at doing the same to Boris if he looks like enough of a liability (and an opportunity for the more talented than the current cabinet to obtain good jobs).


TobyD

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Sunak lives amongst jackals and is well down the perceived food chain. He will almost certainly be a victim of any early Boris departure (given the way things are going that might even be early next year). Tory MPs removed their hero Maggie so they won't blink at doing the same to Boris if he looks like enough of a liability (and an opportunity for the more talented than the current cabinet to obtain good jobs).

Very unlikely. MPs are not idiots however much you disagree with them. Rishi Sunak has better approval ratings than either party leader and is widely considered to have done well in the crisis. They all know this and that he'd possibly be a stronger challenge to Labour headed by Keir Starmer.

However, what they also know is that however poor Boris Johnson is at government, he's a powerful campaigner and many, many people like him. That's not to be underestimated.

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I think you are naive about Tory MP ambition and how that plays out and underestimating racial bias in the very old and very white Tory membership. You need to think on how they replaced Thatcher who was incredibly popular 'amongst the troops' and a pretty good campaigner for John Major. I will offer a gentleman's pint on my view that Sunak won't be the next Tory leader. I'll give you odds of 4 to 1 which seems nice and generous since the bookies are offering around 4:1 on him as next PM (Starmer currently around 2:1).

spidermonkey09

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I think you are naive about Tory MP ambition and how that plays out and underestimating racial bias in the very old and very white Tory membership. You need to think on how they replaced Thatcher who was incredibly popular 'amongst the troops' and a pretty good campaigner for John Major. I will offer a gentleman's pint on my view that Sunak won't be the next Tory leader. I'll give you odds of 4 to 1 which seems nice and generous since the bookies are offering around 4:1 on him as next PM (Starmer currently around 2:1).

Sunak to be next Tory leader (PM or otherwise) at 4/1? Done. Ill have a pint/a tenner on that as you prefer!

ali k

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Marina Hyde:
“A number of pubs are now beginning the process of contacting people who spent “Independence Day” with them. Please take a moment to enjoy the bathos. A few months ago, government ministers were honking daily that we were going to invent our own world-beating test and trace app, a state-of-the-art public health strategy that has now been delegated to the manager of the Fox and Hounds in Batley.”

Funny, albeit tragically on the money.

TobyD

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I think you are naive about Tory MP ambition and how that plays out and underestimating racial bias in the very old and very white Tory membership. You need to think on how they replaced Thatcher who was incredibly popular 'amongst the troops' and a pretty good campaigner for John Major. I will offer a gentleman's pint on my view that Sunak won't be the next Tory leader. I'll give you odds of 4 to 1 which seems nice and generous since the bookies are offering around 4:1 on him as next PM (Starmer currently around 2:1).

If Rishi Sunak screws up big time somehow perhaps you will be right. Thatcher was ousted partly because of her increasing unpopularity, as well as Europe. I think you underestimate the conservative membership, many people possibly including myself, wondered if a church going elderly conservative (in all senses of the word) group could elect a serial womaniser and intellectual lightweight to be leader, but they did. Also don't underestimate the selective blindness in racial prejudice, to some extent I bet all of us are guilty of this. The membership you refer to are happy to cheer for Mario Itoje at England rugby matches or any other non white sports man or woman. In every aspect other than skin colour Rishi Sunak is a text book Conservative politician. Born in Hampshire, educated at Winchester and Oxford...

The problem with criticising the conservative membership for being very old and white is that far more of the population who will vote are old and white than anything else I would guess, so they appear to be quite good at choosing people who win elections.

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The party bias against woman at the time bit I'd agree with, but the average level of racism now in my view still exceeds the  sexism then (in a curently much older membership). The intellectual lightweight phrase comes across as dishonest mansplaining and recycling the crap from some sexist enemies she had in her party. From a humble background she won a chemistry scholarship to Oxford in 1943 as one of the very few of her gender at that time in a properly difficult subject. She was incredibly sharp. She might not have been an exceptional policy specialist but she aligned herself with people who were (from theory to practical implementation) and I've never heard of anyone who said she was anywhere near being too stupid to understand any of her massively complex brief. I disagreed politically with almost everything she did, marched in protest against some of it, but after Attlee she is by far the most informed transformational PM we had in modern times. I need to wash my hands now having been forced to type that.

ali k

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I think Toby was referring to Bojo as the intellectual lightweight not Maggie. Unless I’ve missed the fact she was also a womaniser.

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I think you are naive about Tory MP ambition and how that plays out and underestimating racial bias in the very old and very white Tory membership. You need to think on how they replaced Thatcher who was incredibly popular 'amongst the troops' and a pretty good campaigner for John Major. I will offer a gentleman's pint on my view that Sunak won't be the next Tory leader. I'll give you odds of 4 to 1 which seems nice and generous since the bookies are offering around 4:1 on him as next PM (Starmer currently around 2:1).

Sunak to be next Tory leader (PM or otherwise) at 4/1? Done. Ill have a pint/a tenner on that as you prefer!

It was not an open offer, it was for Toby. You can tempt me into similar if you come up with some other scenario where we differ so much on the odds. I'll happily buy you a pint any time we next meet in a BMC meeting.

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I think Toby was referring to Bojo as the intellectual lightweight not Maggie. Unless I’ve missed the fact she was also a womaniser.

My profuse apologies to Toby... I need to start wearing glasses... and I'm suitably punished by feeling even more dirty defending Maggie.

TobyD

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I think Toby was referring to Bojo as the intellectual lightweight not Maggie. Unless I’ve missed the fact she was also a womaniser.

My profuse apologies to Toby... I need to start wearing glasses... and I'm suitably punished by feeling even more dirty defending Maggie.
:lol: indeed she was on the team that developed Mr Whippy ice cream was she not? Whatever you think of her, she had political conviction and an interest in people and policy, Boris is only interested in himself.

I think you are naive about Tory MP ambition and how that plays out and underestimating racial bias in the very old and very white Tory membership. You need to think on how they replaced Thatcher who was incredibly popular 'amongst the troops' and a pretty good campaigner for John Major. I will offer a gentleman's pint on my view that Sunak won't be the next Tory leader. I'll give you odds of 4 to 1 which seems nice and generous since the bookies are offering around 4:1 on him as next PM (Starmer currently around 2:1).

Sunak to be next Tory leader (PM or otherwise) at 4/1? Done. Ill have a pint/a tenner on that as you prefer!

It was not an open offer, it was for Toby. You can tempt me into similar if you come up with some other scenario where we differ so much on the odds. I'll happily buy you a pint any time we next meet in a BMC meeting.

Ok I bet you Sunak is leader of the conservative party within a decade.

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Good, you're on. Win win for me of course.. I'd be utterly delighted to see a moderate BAME Tory leader.

mrjonathanr

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The Tory party likes winners. Whether Rishi will look like one after a deep recession is not clear. He is obviously more in charge of his portfolio and more statesmanlike than Boris but the Tories will want a leader in tune with mood of the country. Boris served that role well; whether he will be able to reprise it is doubtful but not crystal clear either.

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I think he is stitched up already. He is giving out money like Father Christmas right now...   yet plenty are falling through the cracks and are really struggling and their stories are getting more attention.  Wait and see how he looks when the true scale of the economic and employment mess becomes obvious, let alone if he survives to later when  he is asking for money back to pay the debt.

TobyD

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I think he is stitched up already. He is giving out money like Father Christmas right now...   yet plenty are falling through the cracks and are really struggling and their stories are getting more attention.  Wait and see how he looks when the true scale of the economic and employment mess becomes obvious, let alone if he survives to later when  he is asking for money back to pay the debt.

You may be right,  I can already see that the eat out to help out scheme is going to result in a weapons grade screw up when businesses can't get the money from government quickly enough and go broke. Of course its possible that a system is already in place for this, but I'd bet that it isn't and a whole load of people are currently racking their brains trying to figure out how the hell it's going to work. BUT, I think that Rishi will avoid being blamed for this. Your earlier point about a non white conservative leader being good from a broadly left wing perspective might be dangerous; the Conservative party have had 2 more female leaders than Labour,  but I'm not sure many would have said that either was a champion of compassionate conservatism as one might have speculated if relying on well worn stereotypes. 

I listened to the Times  red box podcast of pmqs yesterday,  given that its probably right of centre both Tim Shipman and Matt Chorley were despairing of Johnson's performance,  he sounded truly pathetic.  I'm under no illusions that pmqs is of any importance to the wider population,  but I'd imagine some Conservative MPs are beginning to wonder if they're being led by a donkey. 

tomtom

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Eat out to help out will experience high levels of fraud I anticipate. Having worked (a long time ago) managing in catering - so much is cash (my restaruant owner used to take 20% of the weekly take from the till) or can be attributed to cash. Especially if your meal is less than £20 a head - easy to bump it up to the limit with a few sides thrown in etc... someone comes in for a coffee only - add a steak etc.. etc..

The home insulation scheme will do as little as the ones that have been running for the last 10 years or so... nice idea. Do nothing. Construction/building schemes/£££ are all good in idea - but also tend to help out sectors dominated by male employment....

Moan/grumble etc.. etc.. :)

sdm

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With so many places being contactless payments only now, it wouldn't be hard to restrict the eat out scheme to card payments only if they want to cut down on fraud.

Whether they will actually think of that and set it up in time is another issue. Sunak hasn't been afraid of restricting aid packages to only those who are seen to be playing the game the right way so I wouldn't be surprised to see cash payments being ineligible.

Accelerating the death of cash might be one of the unintended positive consequences of covid-19.

petejh

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Oh the irony.
The UK has the worst obesity rate in Europe. Obesity is among the highest risk factors for developing critical illness following covid infection.

Here's a useful guide to getting the most shit food for your money under the 'eat out help out' scheme. Tuck in Britain you nation of fat diseased slobs..

Chicken supreme pizza (with free salad): £12.19

Fries: £3.99

Bottle of Pepsi: £3.99

Total before discount: £20.17
£10.17 after discount.


If tackling obesity is an aim then perhaps the discount would be more wisely focused at some kind of healthy food joints. 

tomtom

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Indeed.

Anyway - a card payment is only a card payment. Doesnt at all have to say say what its for... so someone spends £20 on a £10 pizza and (2 or 3 beers) and thats £10 from the chancellor please.

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Well said Pete. Obesity is one of the biggest UK crises (if you excuse the pun) and the one least talked about. It's hardly as if Public Health England is itself not in crisis, with its leadership covering for Boris and the footsoldiers suffering the death of a thousand cuts, after the coalition Lilley 'reforms' moved them into austerity wrecked local councils. You do have to remember it's too complicated and urgent to target beter things (except they have been warned about what happens after furlough for months).

 

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