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COVID-19 and the state of politics (Read 180481 times)

TobyD

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Re Boris, terrible news, I hope he pulls through. Even at the best, he's unlikely to be PM for several weeks, possibly more.

In reply to offwidth you've willfully misinterpreted most of what I've said and resorting to talking about doctors playing god, is tabloid level. Doctors make informed medical decisions to cease or alter treatment in the patients best interests every day, in normal medical care. Including not intubating people when it's available.

Offwidth

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Toby, I can assure you I'm trying to understand and I actually agree with much of what you say (despite you impugning otherwise), there is nothing willful in that. However, I still don't understand how most of it applies to my main concern:  the dangerous government advice on the potentially infected returning to care homes,  providing a huge mortality risk to others there (including staff).

TobyD

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Toby, I can assure you I'm trying to understand and I actually agree with much of what you say (despite you impugning otherwise), there is nothing willful in that. However, I still don't understand how most of it applies to my main concern:  the dangerous government advice on the potentially infected returning to care homes,  providing a huge mortality risk to others there (including staff).

Apologies if I sounded narky! But if a home is someone's place of residence (most residents) then the hospital doesn't have any choice, and homes are responsible for looking after their residents. If you accept that viral infection is going to be pretty widespread, it's going to happen at some point. They just have to implement proper procedures. The government isn't being callous or negligent in this case, just realistic as far as I can see.

The availability of the PPE to make this possible however is another question. It's not this government's fault specifically that they've been massively negligent in having a pandemic plan in place, however; it's the fault of every world government for the last decade or so, since virologists and epidemiologists have been warning them about it but most people have been preoccupied with trade wars, Brexit, immigration or gender politics etc. All that looks pretty frivolous now really. All of us are guilty really as I doubt it was something anyone thought about when they decided who to vote for, I certainly never have.

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Thanks. I think that clarifies our difference. I don't think the virus will be there anyway if things go well. Even if things go badly,  although in open society it might end up that way, I still think those in care homes will still need stringent protection. If you think it will be there anyway and homes should be open to it you are looking at an extra hundred thousand deaths in the UK and staff working with full PPE, with any not having had it, to avoid high viral load infection doses. My alternatives would be improved isolation controls for those at risk for more than a year or hope for an early vaccine. Boris might have been prepared to play russion roulette with his aged voter base when he was in herd immunity mode but most doctors would never sign off on allowing those in nursing homes to be open to such an infection and I think any such homes would struggle to survive financially. Who would want their gran in a place like that?

TobyD

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Offwidth, you can't fully isolate care homes. Even if they're closed to visits, staff go in and out, as do district nurses, maintenance services, GPs, caterers etc. Every person going in or out is a risk, as noone really knows how many people are minimally or non symptomatic. They can put measures in but coranovirus appears to be extremely infectious. I don't think that Boris Johnson ever thought that he'd play Russian roulette with people, however much you (and indeed I!) might not agree with his politics, I don't think he's that sort of leader.

Andy F

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Toby,
I have to disagree with you about Johnson. He clearly knew the risks and went ahead shaking hands with people. Lots of people. He showed a complete disregard for his or other people's lives. This is typical of his bluster and bumble.
While I obviously wish him well, he has brought this upon himself.

Will Hunt

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The problem with saying that people brought it upon themselves is that you have no idea where they got it. My manager was telling me that her daughter's boyfriend got it when he went out for a last night out. That may be. Or he could have got it the day before when he did his nan's shopping for her.
Likewise Johnson. He shook some hands he shouldn't have shook, but he also lives and works in a building with people coming and going all the time who've just come in from all over London.

I'm only really saying this because we should be careful about blaming people who contract it. Even following all the guidance it's all too easy to happen upon a few hundred thousand viruses. Unfortunately, the virus is incredibly good at its job and will continue to do it in spite of our best efforts.

tomtom

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I think a lot of people got it before they/we realised how widespread it was...Looking at the deaths and the cases (massive underestimate) its clear there were tens if not hundreds of thousands of cases the week/weekend before the lockdown was started (16 days ago??).

That’s a collective being caught out by the government. Clearly the Germans were far more on top of the breakout at that point..

Andy F

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And, as PM it's Johnson's fault we are so far behind the Germans. The buck stops with him.

petejh

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Toby,
I have to disagree with you about Johnson. He clearly knew the risks and went ahead shaking hands with people. Lots of people. He showed a complete disregard for his or other people's lives. This is typical of his bluster and bumble.
While I obviously wish him well, he has brought this upon himself.


Talking of Germany, did Merkel also bring it upon herself, when she had to self-isolate because they hadn't realised her doctor was positive?  Or was she just unlucky.

TobyD

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Toby,
I have to disagree with you about Johnson. He clearly knew the risks and went ahead shaking hands with people. Lots of people. He showed a complete disregard for his or other people's lives. This is typical of his bluster and bumble.
While I obviously wish him well, he has brought this upon himself.

I think you're conflating disagreeing with someone generally in a political context, and them having malign intent. I don't believe for a second Johnson has the latter. There have been significant failings and shortcomings in the way the government has handled the planning but in January, I don't suppose you thought it'd come to much either. Obviously it's rather more important that the government thought about these things, but some experts thought it wouldn't get this bad here as well. All said I hope Johnson recovers soon.

Ged

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How about this for an example of a politician answering a question in a way that means absolutely, totally, completely, nothing at all;

question to Raab; does the 100,000 test per day target still stand?
Raab; "the government has been clear on the target and it is important we have made progress so far".

What does that even mean?  And how have you been clear if people are asking  questions about it?  :wall: :wall: :wall:

ali k

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Well in yesterday’s 5pm briefing Raab was insistent that the PM was still in charge, making decisions, and had been keeping the cabinet fully up to date yada yada...before finally admitting he hadn’t spoken to him by text or face to face since Saturday. And this is the guy Johnson was supposed to be handing over the reins to if he became incapable...which he then did 2hrs later!

Nigel

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The availability of the PPE to make this possible however is another question. It's not this government's fault specifically that they've been massively negligent in having a pandemic plan in place, however; it's the fault of every world government for the last decade or so, since virologists and epidemiologists have been warning them about it but most people have been preoccupied with trade wars, Brexit, immigration or gender politics etc. All that looks pretty frivolous now really. All of us are guilty really as I doubt it was something anyone thought about when they decided who to vote for, I certainly never have.

Woah, just a second!

How do I parse the sentence "It's not this government's fault specifically that they've been massively negligent in having a pandemic plan in place"? I can't make it make any sense I'm afraid. Are you saying they've been negligent in not having a plan, or negligent in not implementing it? Either way, I agree! But if you think they have been *negligent* then how is it not their fault that there is a massive PPE, ventilator, and testing shortfall? By definition it is. Who else's is it?

You seem very keen to excuse the government by saying other nations didn't nail it - several wrongs don't make a right though. Finland are a useful counter example - they do have a PPE stockpile. South Korea and Taiwan seem to be doing OK too.

And then "All of us are guilty really as I doubt it was something anyone thought about when they decided who to vote for, I certainly never have." What??!! I can't accept that. When I'm voting I don't think who is going to best defend UK veterinary standards either. Or who has the best policy on cats-eye maintenance. I just trust that these are part of the basic functions of government, and take it for granted. So no, I'll be not guilty thanks.

It is the government's job to protect against threats to the nation, and they do have a plan to deal with pandemics. They also have a National Risk Register which places Pandemic Influenza as a relatively highly likely threat with much the biggest impact relative to all other threats - apologies for awful photo:



There is a link to full doc earlier in thread.

I have no doubt that the government has appropriately planned and resourced countermeasures against say "Attacks on Transport", or "Inland Flooding" (er?!). Great, that's why we elect the government, to deal with this stuff so we don't have to do it all on an individual level.

Put it like this - this government has been in office for a decade now. As you say they will have had virologists sounding warnings. There were pandemic scares with SARS-01 in 2003 and swine flu in 2009. Their own risk register identifies a pandemic (OK flu rather than SARS) as a very high impact, fairly high likelihood threat. They definitely have a pandemic plan - I linked to a 2014 version of it earlier in thread. We role-played a pandemic in 2016. We witnessed China going through all this in December, over 3 months ago, and they warned the world it could become pandemic.

In light of that the least I would expect is that we could have been confident of having enough PPE for health care workers. At least. Not even a stockpile, just a planned procedure for having enough, as a nation, within say a month of a pandemic being announced. Domestically. That doesn't include buying from abroad as any decent planner might guess that they might be somewhat in demand in a *pandemic*.

Basically I would ask, given we have a pandemic plan - is this it? Are we in the midsts of it? Because if you are a doctor or nurse on a ward with insufficient PPE it looks a little weak to put it mildly. Or alternatively, have we just jibbed it off? Either way, that's not my fault, or the fault of other world governments. Its on the UK government, no wonder how much you'd like to give them a free pass...

PS as a final point I note that in Trident we have a very, very, very expensive system for transporting nuclear missiles around the world's oceans to counter no particular threat, and yet we still do it. But we don't have enough masks and gloves for doctors and nurses.

TobyD

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How do I parse the sentence "It's not this government's fault specifically that they've been massively negligent in having a pandemic plan in place"? I can't make it make any sense I'm afraid. Are you saying they've been negligent in not having a plan, or negligent in not implementing it? Either way, I agree! But if you think they have been *negligent* then how is it not their fault that there is a massive PPE, ventilator, and testing shortfall? By definition it is. Who else's is it?
...
You seem very keen to excuse the government by saying other nations didn't nail it - several wrongs don't make a right though. Finland are a useful counter example - they do have a PPE stockpile. Are we in the midsts of it? Because if you are a doctor or nurse on a ward with insufficient PPE it looks a little weak to put it mildly. Or alternatively, have we just jibbed it off? Either way, that's not my fault, or the fault of other world governments. Its on the UK government, no wonder how much you'd like to give them a free pass...
PS as a final point I note that in Trident we have a very, very, very expensive system for transporting nuclear missiles around the world's oceans to counter no particular threat, and yet we still do it. But we don't have enough masks and gloves for doctors and nurses.

I'll try to respond to a few parts of your post. Apologies, mine was a pretty unclear.

Essentially what I meant was all countries knew broadly that something like this was a possibility, but all of them shelved it. This doesn't excuse the UK, but it also doesn't mean anyone else did much better, and I don't believe for a second that any particular political party would have done much different. The UK has been slow to react in some respects, which has certainly made matters worse, but your example of Finland isn't really comparable. It's got a much lower population, lower population density, fewer international airports, and many other factors that make something like this a lot easier to deal with there.


This government has not been in power for a decade, the conservative party has been, but this government has been in power since December. There is a difference.

Your last point, well I'm not a doctor or nurse but I am a physio, partly on a ward, with inadequate PPE. I think the situation with that is pisspoor, especially that PHE change the regulation and recommendations every other day at the moment, which is confusing and frustrating. However, using that to make a point about trident is a bit cheap. There are a hundred things one could start bitching about the government spending money on which suddenly seem rather frivolous. I think trident seems a bit silly these days, but trying to use a massive crisis to make party political points just isn't very helpful.


Duma

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...and I don't believe for a second that any particular political party would have done much different.



This government has not been in power for a decade, the conservative party has been, but this government has been in power since December. There is a difference.

I disagree with the first sentence quoted - the failure to stockpile PPE was a cost desicion, and I think the Labour party - or indeed any party that valued healthcare workers and was not ideologically wedded to fanatical austerity and breaking up the NHS would likely have gone along with the expert advice on prep for a known major threat, that was rejected by the conservatives.

The second sentence is disingenuous at best - A large number of the current lot have been in government for several years.

The FIRST duty of any government is to keep its citizens safe - and this one has failed, initially  by running down its health service, then by rejecting advice re planning for a pandemic just such as this on cost grounds, and then by dismissal and delay in the face of mounting evidence from the far east and then Italy (not in december though Nigel it was jan - feb), and finally by the farce around testing - witness Germany.

In the context of keeping citizens safe the cost of Trident (and defence spending as a whole) is a perfectly valid point to make.

Bonjoy

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There have been significant failings and shortcomings in the way the government has handled the planning but in January, I don't suppose you thought it'd come to much either.
What?
It was blindingly obvious a pandemic was a very likely outcome in January. Based on past history and statistics it was always highly likely a pandemic would occur in our lifetime. The news out of China was not hard to interpret and you would expect/hope governments would be alert to this specific threat. It's not hard to find a myriad sources loudly stating this exact outcome was a 'when' rather than 'if' prospect. I certainly for one was very alarmed about this virus in January and very unreasured by the response from our government.

Nigel

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Essentially what I meant was all countries knew broadly that something like this was a possibility, but all of them shelved it. This doesn't excuse the UK, but it also doesn't mean anyone else did much better, and I don't believe for a second that any particular political party would have done much different. The UK has been slow to react in some respects, which has certainly made matters worse, but your example of Finland isn't really comparable. It's got a much lower population, lower population density, fewer international airports, and many other factors that make something like this a lot easier to deal with there.

I'm not sure that's true. Like I say, South Korea and Taiwan *are* doing much better. OK they aren't western democracies, but in that case I give you Germany. You say we have been slow to react in some respects. I'll say! I'll overlook social distancing measures, ventilators, and even testing for now if you like, all of which might arguably come under the "difficult" column. PPE - the reason I gave the Finland example was that they have a load stockpiled. That's easy, you just produce / buy a stock and keep it safe. Number of airports, population density does not feature. The solution to our higher population than Finland - stockpile more than Finland. We had a 3 month headstart on this...

This government has not been in power for a decade, the conservative party has been, but this government has been in power since December. There is a difference.

Yes, accepted. I'm sure I remember Boris being Prime Minister last summer though? He certainly was in December when this started in China. Yes its a different government but I don't think they started from a totally blank sheet of paper - the plans were already in place. Raab, Gove, Hancock etc. look somewhat familiar too...these were not ingenues finding their feet in government in January / February.


Your last point, well I'm not a doctor or nurse but I am a physio, partly on a ward, with inadequate PPE. I think the situation with that is pisspoor, especially that PHE change the regulation and recommendations every other day at the moment, which is confusing and frustrating. However, using that to make a point about trident is a bit cheap. There are a hundred things one could start bitching about the government spending money on which suddenly seem rather frivolous. I think trident seems a bit silly these days, but trying to use a massive crisis to make party political points just isn't very helpful.

I didn't make a party political point I don't think? Trident is a countermeasure to a national threat, which though currently unspecified, we still keep around at great expense just in case. I made what I though was a reasonable comparison between what we have in place there, and the comparative lack of preparation / investment for a national threat (pandemic), which although unspecified in nature or time, can still be foreseen. And was foreseen. It is all the main parties' policies to keep Trident so the point is not to bitch about its existence or make a political point, it just looks like skewed priorities. Masks and gloves maybe don't look flashy for a government procurement project in normal times, but they sure would be handy now...

On PPE, I do feel for you having to do your job without the proper stuff. I agree it is pisspoor. How many NHS workers have died of coronavirus caught while working now? I don't know but one is too many - they should be properly equipped by their employer, HM Government. I would say that whoever was at the helm, whatever their stripe. If a company in industry lost this many of its workers in a couple of weeks due to insufficient equipment then the high ups would be standing in court, no question. HSE would be on them like a ton of bricks. They are breaking their own laws on this.


TobyD

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I disagree with the first sentence quoted - the failure to stockpile PPE was a cost desicion, and I think the Labour party - or indeed any party that valued healthcare workers and was not ideologically wedded to fanatical austerity and breaking up the NHS would likely have gone along with the expert advice on prep for a known major threat, that was rejected by the conservatives.

The second sentence is disingenuous at best - A large number of the current lot have been in government for several years.

The FIRST duty of any government is to keep its citizens safe - and this one has failed, initially  by running down its health service, then by rejecting advice re planning for a pandemic just such as this on cost grounds, and then by dismissal and delay in the face of mounting evidence from the far east and then Italy (not in december though Nigel it was jan - feb), and finally by the farce around testing - witness Germany.

In the context of keeping citizens safe the cost of Trident (and defence spending as a whole) is a perfectly valid point to make.

So why was there not a vocal, effective opposition party in January jumping up and down demanding that the government buy ppe? I don't remember any of them pushing the government on this, asking questions in the commons or giving interviews about it,  unless it was something I just missed. 

I'm partly just playing devils advocate here, as I think there's a fine line between criticism of the government response to the escalating crisis (which it needs, and I think that so far Keir Starmer has done well) and using that to bang on about austerity or try to make a party political point. I'm no fan of this administration,  and quite a few ministers are massively over promoted lightweights,  but at the moment I think that constructive criticism is really the only decent response.
Fingers crossed that people all adhere to the lockdown properly,  don't start driving around to go climbing or whatever and hope that it makes the difference to allow the NHS to cope with it. 

TobyD

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[How many NHS workers have died of coronavirus caught while working now? I don't know but one is too many - they should be properly equipped by their employer, HM Government. I would say that whoever was at the helm, whatever their stripe. If a company in industry lost this many of its workers in a couple of weeks due to insufficient equipment then the high ups would be standing in court, no question. HSE would be on them like a ton of bricks. They are breaking their own laws on this.

It may be pedantic but I, and all NHS workers as far as I know are employed by the healthcare trusts, not the Government.  What really pisses me off is the trust management more than politicians,  they sit in comfy offices (or at home now) firing off emails telling us how to do our jobs, that we'll suddenly have to go and do a different job,  or work longer hours while they no doubt take in plenty of glory for working for the NHS.  If we ask (email, I haven't seen a manager for a couple of months) them for guidance or training on ppe, they'll just forward us a link to government advice.  Now that is pisspoor.

Nigel,  I agree with you,  in that I think some trusts have been negligent in sorting this out, but the extent to which its devolved to trusts and not central is better, as requirements in a community trust will be so different to a big acute facility.  I don't need a hazmat suit (I hope) but more than one surgical mask and visor would be good. 

Phew, I'm glad I've got that off my chest. 

Offwidth

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Aside from any political argument about Corbyn's leadership, the main problems were the cover up of the 2016 pandemic response exercise and it's recommendations and loads of government and expert reassurance that tests and PPE would be OK, early on. As soon as shortages became evident, Corbyn was on that.

I'm sure one day we will learn why the government were so slow getting going on dealing with logistics and supply issues, as for the moment it doesn't even make political sense. 

There were some criticisms of Labour in mid March but the civil service must have been working on this as soon as the epidemic became evident in China. Maybe we should be briefing all main political parties on the science a bit earlier in such situations.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-cases-uk-deaths-labour-response-corbyn-a9409966.html
« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 10:01:51 am by Offwidth »

chris j

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Toby,
I have to disagree with you about Johnson. He clearly knew the risks and went ahead shaking hands with people. Lots of people. He showed a complete disregard for his or other people's lives. This is typical of his bluster and bumble.
While I obviously wish him well, he has brought this upon himself.

Ironically the theory in the times today was that Neil Ferguson quite probably infected the cobra committee en masse when he came in to brief them the day before going in to self isolation himself.

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It's the US ....covid 19 and guns had to figure at some stage.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/07/paul-broun-ar15-gun-coronavirus-campaign-video-atlanta-looting-hordes

.... and the latest resignation of a member of the administration, also linked to covid 19

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/07/thomas-modly-acting-navy-secretary-resigns
« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 09:58:30 am by Offwidth »

mrjonathanr

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What I really don’t understand is how working with inadequate PPE isn’t a breach of H+S regs?

I know that guidance was recently revised down in the case of PPE but surely there are still breaches for NHS and care home staff ?

 

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