[tomtom]

This will be old news for many but i found it interesting, especially the planned cessation of testing as containment failed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/did-the-uk-government-prepare-for-the-wrong-kind-of-pandemic

*if it’s the same article I read earlier - I think it is

It provides an interesting narrative alongside what actually happened. How our plans evolved followed what was recommended back in 2016 - until the herd immunity cock up / speed bump. Explains quite a bit - from both how the science and policy side.

If that’s the case - begs the question why we stuck to that when many other countries did something different

[seankenny]

This thread from Newsnight reporter Lewis Goodall is a shocker:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1263219921124720640?s=20

(I haven't seen any of his reports, just followed what he's written on Twitter.)

[ali k]

This thread from Newsnight reporter Lewis Goodall is a shocker:

Yes it is. On a personal level I am so grateful that I don’t have anyone I love in a care home right now. But that doesn’t make what’s happening on a societal level any less painful to witness. Even more shocking given that the Cygnus report was so explicit in highlighting how exposed care homes would be, yet nothing was done beforehand to prepare and then such catastrophically bad decisions were made during.

[sdm]

We lost a distant relative in similar circumstances to the second home described in the thread. He had been terrified of going to hospital and catching it and refused to go in for an operation while the government were still telling us everything was fine.

About 4 weeks ago, he had a minor fall and ended up in hospital because the overstretched home couldn't cope with anyone requiring additional attention. He was discharged 2 days later back to the home. 6 days later, he started to cough and he didn't last long. His wife only got told he had fallen ill hours before he passed and didn't get a chance to say goodbye.

It has of course spread around the home. I know others there have since lost their lives to it but I don't know how many.

The funeral company didn't offer a streaming or recording service so even some of his closest family weren't able to attend.

[Offwidth]

Never thought I'd say this, but yesterday's daily briefing was quite revealing. Well, the questions part at least:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jd72/briefings-downing-street-coronavirus-news-conference-19052020

I suspect we won't be seeing much more of Dame Angela McClean at briefings.

Sorry about a repost but I fucked up the quotes.

It's becoming a surreal shadow play. Everyone knows it's a massive mess that cost tens of thousands of lives but the pretence of sucess has to continue. This was one of the few times cracks showed.

On the science point, several key government scientific advisors have to be guilty of errors but we still don't exactly who, with how much guilt, or about what. I've sat in enough high level academic committees over decades to know eminent scientists are people with the usual flaws: those prepared to say the emperor has no clothes are more the exception than the rule. From the leaks so far SAGE seems to be where the biggest science problems occurred, where of course they got the balance of modelling versus other key skills very wrong and Dom and his pet post doc sit in (no intent to spin or intimidate... oh no). To be fair to SAGE they inherited a shit show (especially, and despite Cygnus, in pandemic preparedness and an austerity hits on our Public Health service and council support for social care) but Testing, PPE, the herd immunity nonsense and Care Home protections should have been handled much better from the scientific input side. As someone with a longstanding hard boiled experience of science (the great and mainly good through to the bad), and a well known Boris critic, I never saw this coming: the worst cabinet I've ever seen doing so well on the political end on its financial response and a good bit of the serious epidemiology problems being down to mixed quailty advice on the bit involving science. As much as I dislike the ongoing political communications fiasco (plain lies to muddled messages), I think the English population rescued the government from the worst consequences of that, as they behaved better in social distancing than I cynically expected. Even the austerity factors (especially council services, PH and Cygnus) were more Cameron and May's fault.

My final point on science is where are SAGE on the pace of relaxation? The bulk of independent public science input says it's too much too soon in the UK, given infection level's being by far the highest in Europe for doing what we are doing.
 

[andy popp]

I feel terrible saying this, but I'm glad by father died at home two years, my sister by his side. Otherwise there's a high chance this would have been his fate. I'm so sorry for anyone who has had to experience this.

[Offwidth]

We lost a distant relative in similar circumstances to the second home described in the thread. He had been terrified of going to hospital and catching it and refused to go in for an operation while the government were still telling us everything was fine.

About 4 weeks ago, he had a minor fall and ended up in hospital because the overstretched home couldn't cope with anyone requiring additional attention. He was discharged 2 days later back to the home. 6 days later, he started to cough and he didn't last long. His wife only got told he had fallen ill hours before he passed and didn't get a chance to say goodbye.

It has of course spread around the home. I know others there have since lost their lives to it but I don't know how many.

The funeral company didn't offer a streaming or recording service so even some of his closest family weren't able to attend.

Shocking but sadly predictable.

A similarly shocking blog from Roy Lilley today

I have no words...
News and Comment from Roy Lilley
I'm lucky to have a voice, I can say what I think needs to be said.  I am really privileged that people write to me with their secrets, their complaints, their hopes and ideas.

I try to reply, acknowledge, make a comment.

I was sent this email two days ago.  It made me weep.  Tears of sorrow, compassion, hopelessness, frustration and anger.  I have no words...
-oOo-
My parents reside in a care home, Mum has last stages of Dementia and Dad has Parkinson's (but with full mental capacity)

The care home, via random testing, in early May, established they had what they termed an asymptomatic resident. I am yet to be told what this means and how this "longstanding resident" caught the virus in the first place.

It took until last Thursday for the rest of the care home residents and staff to be tested... after chasing, by myself and other relatives.

(I know the testing regime has been shambolic)

Before the test results arrived Mum developed a cough and became poorly. Dad's tastes changed, went off his food and began to display signs of confusion.

I had to ask, in an email, for them to be isolated. At this point I believe the only resident to be isolated was the person who was asymptomatic. 

The test results came back late Sunday.  We were not notified. During the early hours of Monday morning Mum and Dad became very ill.  At that point we were advised they both have Covid.

They are both still here fighting for their lives. Mum is on an end-of life-plan due to her co-morbidities.

Dad should be being helped by the NHS (here I am critical of the system not the people)

In our view, Dad needs a drip but the care home can't do that. He can't be admitted to hospital, due to having all the non-standard elderly people's symptoms, he doesn't qualify.

My Dad didn't want a DNAR, he expected to be helped by the NHS he believed in, voted for, paid for all of his life.

We have just been told that the local GP has said Dad cannot be resuscitated because the care home doesn't have the enhanced PPE.

This is confusing. PHE has issued guidance on PPE for staff undertaking resuscitation; Level 3 PPE it's not needed in care homes, which conflicts with Resuscitation Council guidance... Level 3 is needed.
 
We know there is a national shortage and we also know distribution is/has been shambolic but they can't get it and are now looking to local charitable organisations to see if they have any.

Ours isn't an unfamiliar tale but it is devastating, for all the families like ours who find themselves without anyone who can do anything. I feel totally helpless.

I am someone who has worked in health and local government for all of my working life.

How must other families feel? Angry, let down by a system that should be caring for a generation that fought poverty, the war, the depression and gave us freedom.

It's a generation that's being left to die.

... if you can use our story to raise the profile of the elderly especially in the context of today's statistics showing 25% of deaths relating to the elderly, I would be grateful

I'd also like Government to realise that these are real people with real families, daughters (in our case) and grandchildren who will be scared forever.

Presumably, hospitals have appropriate PPE so my Dad would be safer in hospital?

I have read your blogs for years and this is the first time I have been brave enough to ask you for help.

Tonight will be another sleepless night, checking the phones, wondering how they are doing and hoping/praying that they make it through the night.

-oOo-

Yesterday morning I learned my correspondent had bought 10, CE approved face shields, '... for use with my parents... they'll be delivered to the care home'.

Can I ask, please, next time you watch the 5pm, Number 10, press charade, you remember this email. 

Next time you hear a minister or a house-trained chief-medico-scientist, telling us, this-n-that's world-beating, protective rings, done-at-pace, spending more money than god... please, remember, this email and ask yourself, are they fools or liars.

I have no words...

[Offwidth]

This thread from Newsnight reporter Lewis Goodall is a shocker:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1263219921124720640?s=20

(I haven't seen any of his reports, just followed what he's written on Twitter.)

Bloody hell

"Cumnor Hill was told by CQC that this (isolating to protect the home from C19 ) was not in accordance with government advice- that social interaction was vital and it represented a deprivation of liberty. Care home CEO told me he was told "we would have to take out a deprivation of liberty order on all our homes.""

[mrjonathanr]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/uk-first-coronavirus-contact-tracing-group-warns-of-difficulties

Intriguing article about a volunteer track and trace group set up by retired Sheffield GPs.

The absence of a proper national TT system was described as a “schoolboy error” by Dr Bing Jones who helped set up the group. Summary: getting the operation to work effectively was pretty much impossible. Dr Jones believes the gov track and trace system will struggle more than they did. 

[TobyD]

One of the most terrifying things I've read in the news recently is that 1 in 5 (19%) of Americans would refuse a CV vaccine.  I wonder how many dangerous idiots there are in the UK. 

Edit: just heard reports of Oxford study that found 19% of people surveyed  thought that Jews had created the virus.  A similar number thought maybe it's a Chinese bio weapon. 

[Offwidth]

One of the main tools of political popularism is to generate a fearful and suspicious population when it comes to status quo politics and experts.  So please be careful who you call an idiot.

[Oldmanmatt]

One of the main tools of political popularism is to generate a fearful and suspicious population when it comes to status quo politics and experts.  So please be careful who you call an idiot.

Not sure if you are aware of this, but, you could call them “Masters of the human condition, Lords of the common wisdom” and it would only be a euphemism for idiot.

[mrjonathanr]

 Depends on whether they exercise their right to vote , innit?

Greek noun ἰδιώτης idiōtēs 'a private person, individual', is commonly held to refer to a person who did not participate in voting. Later associations of ignorance and stupidity come to us via Latin and then French.

So populists are definitely not idiots in the early classical sense.

[tomtom]

Might knob heads be a better description? :D

[Offwidth]

One of the main tools of political popularism is to generate a fearful and suspicious population when it comes to status quo politics and experts.  So please be careful who you call an idiot.

Not sure if you are aware of this, but, you could call them “Masters of the human condition, Lords of the common wisdom” and it would only be a euphemism for idiot.

I'm sure some may be idiots but that would also include in my view any well educated person labelling huge lumps of the population in that way. Brexit really woke me up to the extent of this... how huge numbers of people can make odd looking decisions for what they saw as good reasons and certainly often without being stupid.  The problem with blanket labels is even more obvious in the US: most white college educated Americans voted for Trump (clever them...short term reduced taxes) who increases problems for poor people already struggling to get good public health information (but can easily find conspiracy shit on Facebook and Fox news); how much idiocy is there when the poor white Americans made bad health decisions, compared to the white rich voting for Trump.

[Oldmanmatt]

One of the main tools of political popularism is to generate a fearful and suspicious population when it comes to status quo politics and experts.  So please be careful who you call an idiot.

Not sure if you are aware of this, but, you could call them “Masters of the human condition, Lords of the common wisdom” and it would only be a euphemism for idiot.

I'm sure some may be idiots but that would also include in my view any well educated person labelling huge lumps of the population in that way. Brexit really woke me up to the extent of this... how huge numbers of people can make odd looking decisions for what they saw as good reasons and certainly often without being stupid.  The problem with blanket labels is even more obvious in the US: most white college educated Americans voted for Trump (clever them...short term reduced taxes) who increases problems for poor people already struggling to get good public health information (but can easily find conspiracy shit on Facebook and Fox news); how much idiocy is there when the poor white Americans made bad health decisions, compared to the white rich voting for Trump.

Sorry, “idiot” and “educated” are not mutually exclusive and a lot of what is happening today, is idiotic.
I think you are entitled to your politically correct approach, but I don’t believe you will achieve what you hope to.
Generally, I think people roll their eyes when they hear people talk as you have. That particular group of “populists”, broad church they may be, would almost certainly have a serious medical episode, from the amount of eye rolling that would ensue from reading that description.

The desire to avoid distinguishing between groups, in defiance of clear observation, is part of the reason for the current divide, not a cure for it.

[chris j]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/uk-first-coronavirus-contact-tracing-group-warns-of-difficulties

Intriguing article about a volunteer track and trace group set up by retired Sheffield GPs.

The absence of a proper national TT system was described as a “schoolboy error” by Dr Bing Jones who helped set up the group. Summary: getting the operation to work effectively was pretty much impossible. Dr Jones believes the gov track and trace system will struggle more than they did. 

The apparent culture of health care workers to clam up and refuse to divulge contacts (at the possible behest of their line managers) was quite shocking for me.

[tomtom]

The apparent culture of health care workers to clam up and refuse to divulge contacts (at the possible behest of their line managers) was quite shocking for me.

Me too... but I did wonder how much was due to this being an 'unofficial' TT scheme rather than one with the full weight of the Govt behind it...

[mrjonathanr]

Behest or fear Chris? Have you seen the reporting of NHS staff threatened with their jobs for discussing PPE shortages? A management culture that may not be just in hospitals.

[tomtom]

Behest or fear? Have you seen the reporting of NHS staff threatened with their jobs for discussing PPE shortages? A management culture that may not be just in hospitals.

I know - the culture and zero hours contacts in care settings means people will not want to stop working...

I wonder if the Govt has actually thought how it would force people to enter quarantine if TT identified them. Similar to Priti Patels UK entry quarantine thats due to be announced? It would very much go against this governments 'nudge' solutions...

I seem to remember reading an article in the last couple of days saying that the UK Govt will have to toughen up how it enforces self quarantine from TT if it comes in. Quite how well that will go down amongst someone self employed (for example) getting a call from a bored T&T call centre worker telling them they have to quarantine.

[Offwidth]

Sorry, “idiot” and “educated” are not mutually exclusive and a lot of what is happening today, is idiotic.
I think you are entitled to your politically correct approach, but I don’t believe you will achieve what you hope to.
Generally, I think people roll their eyes when they hear people talk as you have. That particular group of “populists”, broad church they may be, would almost certainly have a serious medical episode, from the amount of eye rolling that would ensue from reading that description.

The desire to avoid distinguishing between groups, in defiance of clear observation, is part of the reason for the current divide, not a cure for it.

We will have to agree to disagree. I think the fact anti-vaxers are a real issue is often more about people living in a bubble where most family or friends are suspicious of vaccines and sadly too much popularist social media supports such positions; what is needed is serious Public Health investment, action on dangerous social media posts and adult discussion. Low vaccination rates add risk to everyone... it's important and urgent and fuck all to do with being PC.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/sep/26/drop-in-vaccination-rates-in-england-alarming-experts-warn

[tomtom]

From the ZOE covid self reporting app... Looks to me like a cessation of the downward trend and a level if not slight rise since restrictions were eased....


https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

[tomtom]

And Cummings now caught breaking (quite clearly) the travel / isolation rules six weeks ago to his parents in Durham... possibly whilst symptomatic - and with one of his kids...

Reported and spoken to by the police at the time.

In normal times - with a normal government he’d be walking the plank right now. My money is on nothing happening....

[ali k]

And Cummings now caught breaking (quite clearly) the travel / isolation rules six weeks ago to his parents in Durham...
In normal times - with a normal government he’d be walking the plank right now. My money is on nothing happening....

I’m not sure what’s worse about this - the fact he quite clearly won’t resign (despite Ferguson having to do so for a much lesser infringement), or that the BBC’s political editor is on Twitter directly defending him quoting an ‘unnamed source’ again. If ever there was any doubt about her independence. The whole thing fucking stinks.

[TobyD]

Sorry, “idiot” and “educated” are not mutually exclusive and a lot of what is happening today, is idiotic.
I think you are entitled to your politically correct approach, but I don’t believe you will achieve what you hope to.
Generally, I think people roll their eyes when they hear people talk as you have. That particular group of “populists”, broad church they may be, would almost certainly have a serious medical episode, from the amount of eye rolling that would ensue from reading that description.

The desire to avoid distinguishing between groups, in defiance of clear observation, is part of the reason for the current divide, not a cure for it.

We will have to agree to disagree. I think the fact anti-vaxers are a real issue is often more about people living in a bubble where most family or friends are suspicious of vaccines and sadly too much popularist social media supports such positions; what is needed is serious Public Health investment, action on dangerous social media posts and adult discussion. Low vaccination rates add risk to everyone... it's important and urgent and fuck all to do with being PC.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/sep/26/drop-in-vaccination-rates-in-england-alarming-experts-warn

I find it extremely difficult to believe that anti vaxers are really so isolated from reason. It's not as though the benefits of vaccination aren't known widely, massively publicised and repeated endlessly.
There are valid reasons for making decisions or holding views many might disagree with, but crap like vaccine scepticism and the 5G /CV19 conspiracy is utterly idiotic. I really don't think there's much excuse for it.