[Oldmanmatt]

A quick look at the Worldometer stats, SA only hit the 100 death mark around 30th April and are at 250 two weeks later.
We hit that around 18 March. Two weeks later, had ~2500 dead. That’s a pretty significant difference.
However, their number of cases continues to rise (700/day and increasing) and so do the deaths, so it’s not under control there.

I don’t know enough about SA. Am I wrong to think the reporting is likely to be highly suspect and almost certainly below, significantly, actual?
(A bit like ours...)

[SA Chris]

Aye, not sure the Verneukpan has enough pinches of salt to take with the stats.

[ali k]

Now we’ve gone above 40k and are looking really shit compared with the rest of Europe they’re just missing that data out altogether.
And all that despite govt ministers still making comparisons with other countries when the numbers are in their favour. Including Matt Hancock this morning comparing care home deaths. It’s just rank hypocrisy.

Shapps choosing to compare care home death rates with other European countries again today. I hope someone takes them to task over this hypocrisy soon.

[IanP]

USA 30k excess deaths. UK 50k excess deaths.

Just seen this - while excess data on the FT is really interesting its worth noting that dates of latest data can be very different so UK is May 1st while US is Apr 11 (and Italy is Mar 31).

UK does look like it may possibly be worst hit in Europe, though Italy, Belgium, Spain and to some extent Netherlands seem to be in the similar ballpark (more than 50% excess deaths)

[Oldmanmatt]

London doing ok, so we can reopen.

Rest of UK? Obviously, the government position is “fuck them”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-london-lowest-rate-infection-uk-a9515761.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1589533788

Flippant, but it often feels as of “UK” policy, has very little consideration for anybody outside of the M25.

Also, surely hospital admissions today, only tell you what r was ~2 weeks ago, when the lockdown was still working and not even what it was last week, when it started to crumble?

[mrjonathanr]

New Gov slogan?
https://twitter.com/dylan_patel/status/1259382422048854016

[TobyD]

London doing ok, so we can reopen.

Rest of UK? Obviously, the government position is “fuck them”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-london-lowest-rate-infection-uk-a9515761.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1589533788

Flippant, but it often feels as of “UK” policy, has very little consideration for anybody outside of the M25.

Also, surely hospital admissions today, only tell you what r was ~2 weeks ago, when the lockdown was still working and not even what it was last week, when it started to crumble?

I think that the government has made a huge mistake with this current policy. The actual change in the law and regulations is tiny, but people appear to have generally decided that now they can do whatever they want. I fear to think what national parks and beaches will be like this weekend.

In three weeks the figures will probably get worse and it'll be panic stations and stockpile mania again

[Oldmanmatt]

London doing ok, so we can reopen.

Rest of UK? Obviously, the government position is “fuck them”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-london-lowest-rate-infection-uk-a9515761.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1589533788

Flippant, but it often feels as of “UK” policy, has very little consideration for anybody outside of the M25.

Also, surely hospital admissions today, only tell you what r was ~2 weeks ago, when the lockdown was still working and not even what it was last week, when it started to crumble?

I think that the government has made a huge mistake with this current policy. The actual change in the law and regulations is tiny, but people appear to have generally decided that now they can do whatever they want. I fear to think what national parks and beaches will be like this weekend.

In three weeks the figures will probably get worse and it'll be panic stations and stockpile mania again

I do think that, possibly, maybe, if you squint at it from the right angle (maybe add red and a polarising filter); there might be a hint of a plan and even something approaching logic, behind the debacle.

We are only going to get through this by significantly, permanently, changing our behaviour.
In many ways, lockdown, only provides a false sense of security and genuinely cannot be permanent. However, it’s clear, too many still don’t take it seriously or flatly deny the severity.
Not a situation likely to change under an enforced lockdown. Perhaps “They” feel a “managed” second wave might be what’s needed to drum the message home?

This is idle musing, of course. I have no faith in “Their” ability to manage anything, let alone a deadly virus. I do think they might actually be capable of believing  they can. There must be some hope that there is a seasonal aspect to the virus transmission (and this is probably the start of low  transmission season). There is still the hope that sufficient penetration, might, confer the fabled “Herd immunity”.
In darker moments, I can almost imagine that “clearing out” the most vulnerable from the care homes and population at large, might be seen in some quarters as a punch to be taken now; that will be a fading memory by years end and even “clear the undergrowth” that gives the death toll it’s greatest fuel.

Then again, ‘They” are probably just incompetent and overly influenced by greedy corporate interests.

[tomtom]

Managed second wave - or ripples on the curve if you like is fine - if you’re coming from a low point. Eg. Much easier to manage a rise of 100 cases a day from a base of 200-400. This could be done or helped by track and trace etc. If it’s a rise of 1000 on a base of 2-4000 (as we have at the moment) that’s not possible.

[Offwidth]

BMJ view on the government response..

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932

[mrjonathanr]

Succinct. This caught my eye:

On 19 March, the status of covid-19 was downgraded from level 4, the highest threat level, to level 3 by the four nations group on high consequence infectious diseases and the Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens.11 This enabled the required standard of personal protective equipment to be lowered for staff in hospitals and to nurse patients in non-infectious disease settings.

In contrast, the  WHO declared a global pandemic on 11 March.

[ali k]

Fuck me this govt just cannot show even a scrap of honesty or empathy.

The IFS produces a detailed report on the state of the jobs market showing vacancies posted in March were just 8% of the levels in 2019 and only “tentatively recovering in the health and social care sector and barely at all in other parts of the economy”.

Therese Coffey’s response: “there are a substantial number of job vacancies”.

One of these statements is not based in reality.

If she can’t even recognise or admit there’s a problem what hope is there to fix it?

[Nigel]

BMJ view on the government response..

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932

Comprehensive and clear.

Herd immunity via contracting the virus still looks like the plan, going on actions not words. It'd be easier all round if they would just admit it.

[Nigel]

Never thought I'd say this, but yesterday's daily briefing was quite revealing. Well, the questions part at least:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jd72/briefings-downing-street-coronavirus-news-conference-19052020

I suspect we won't be seeing much more of Dame Angela McClean at briefings.

[ali k]

Never thought I'd say this, but yesterday's daily briefing was quite revealing. Well, the questions part at least:
I suspect we won't be seeing much more of Dame Angela McClean at briefings.

I get the sense a few of the scientific advisers have become acutely aware of being lined up for blame so are gently distancing themselves from decisions and being more blunt in their answers. Very wise.

The emerging line from ministers now also seems to be that “we know more now than we did back in February/March” to excuse decisions that were made. In a sense that may be true about certain aspects but it doesn’t explain away some fundamental flaws in their strategy. I use the word ‘strategy’ in the loosest sense.

[SA Chris]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uk-blames-scientists-for-wrong-advice-on-pandemic-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

Shoulders already aslope.

[tomtom]

Having been involved in advising government in the past - as a scientist you’re normally treated apolitically and with the upmost of respect and courtesy. After all - you’re doing it to help - not for any great payback (although it doesn’t generally do your reputation any harm!)

If they start blaming scientists and science advice - then support and help from the science community will very very rapidly evaporate.

This all feels like a very Trump-lite way of dealing with things.

[mrjonathanr]

If they start blaming scientists and science advice - then support and help from the science community will very very rapidly evaporate.

Future disaster in the making there. Trump-lite/populist short termism- yes.

[ali k]

Downing St are now saying Coffey’s comments were “unhelpful”, but it seems to be a tried and tested method of putting up a (relatively) junior minister to sew the idea in the public’s mind and then No 10 distancing themselves when challenged. The damage is already done by that point, but they can plead innocence. I’m assuming the scientists can see this tactic for what it is, and push back accordingly.

[SA Chris]

Yup, right out of The Donald's playbook, point fingers at everyone but yourself.

[Bradders]

Never thought I'd say this, but yesterday's daily briefing was quite revealing. Well, the questions part at least:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jd72/briefings-downing-street-coronavirus-news-conference-19052020

I suspect we won't be seeing much more of Dame Angela McClean at briefings.

Indeed! Lots of very pointed silences following her answers which said quite a lot more than she had. Thanks for highlighting.

[Oldmanmatt]

decimate
/ˈdɛsɪmeɪt/
verb

1.
kill, destroy, or remove a large proportion of.
"the inhabitants of the country had been decimated"
2.
HISTORICAL
kill one in every ten of (a group of people, originally a mutinous Roman legion, in 2020 it refers to Care home residents) as a punishment for the whole group.
(Historically)"the man who is to determine whether it be necessary to decimate a large body of mutineers".
(Present) “Cummings is the man who determined it was necessary to decimate a large body of helpless elderly people”.

Definitions from Oxford Languages (and a bit of tooth grinding frustration).


(Sorry. My Grandmother died, last week actually (non covid). Because of the situation, she died alone. Even when we knew she was deteriorating, nobody could visit. A careworker sat with her until she passed. My Grandmother was the fourth person that woman had sat with, for the final moments, that week. She was the only non covid. I can’t go to her funeral, just found out).

[tomtom]

Sorry to hear that OMM

[Offwidth]

Never thought I'd say this, but yesterday's daily briefing was quite revealing. Well, the questions part at least:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jd72/briefings-downing-street-coronavirus-news-conference-19052020

I suspect we won't be seeing much more of Dame Angela McClean at briefings.
[/quote

It's becoming a surreal shadow play. Everyone knows it's a massive mess that cost tens of thousands of lives but the pretence of sucess has to continue. This was one of the few times cracks showed.

On the science point, several key government scientific advisors have to be guilty of errors but we still don't exactly who, with how much guilt, or about what. I've sat in enough high level academic committees over decades to know eminent scientists are people with the usual flaws: those prepared to say the emperor has no clothes are more the exception than the rule. From the leaks so far SAGE seems to be where the biggest science problems occurred, where of course they got the balance of modelling versus other key skills very wrong and Dom and his pet post doc sit in (no intent to spin or intimidate... oh no). To be fair to SAGE they inherited a shit show (especially, and despite Cygnus, in pandemic preparedness and an austerity hits on our Public Health service and council support for social care) but Testing, PPE, the herd immunity nonsense and Care Home protections should have been handled much better from the scientific input side. As someone with a longstanding hard boiled experience of science (the great and mainly good through to the bad), and a well known Boris critic, I never saw this coming: the worst cabinet I've ever seen doing so well on the political end on its financial response and a good bit of the serious epidemiology problems being down to mixed quailty advice on the bit involving science. As much as I dislike the ongoing political communications fiasco (plain lies to muddled messages), I think the English population rescued the government from the worst consequences of that, as they behaved better in social distancing than I cynically expected. Even the austerity factors (especially council services, PH and Cygnus) were more Cameron and May's fault.

My final point on science is where are SAGE on the pace of relaxation? The bulk of independent public science input says it's too much too soon in the UK, given infection level's being by far the highest in Europe for doing what we are doing.

[chris j]

This will be old news for many but i found it interesting, especially the planned cessation of testing as containment failed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/did-the-uk-government-prepare-for-the-wrong-kind-of-pandemic