[Offwidth]

Meanwhile over the pond

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/24/americans-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-increase

[SA Chris]

And it's coming up to Independence Day weekend, and be summer "vacations" soon, I'm fearful for them.

I'm almost certain election will get postponed, watch him.

[mrjonathanr]

Meanwhile over the pond

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/24/americans-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-increase

Amid the increase in cases, the Trump administration is ending funding and support for 13 testing sites in states including Texas this month

[petejh]

As someone put it: 'the US has built herd immunity to both common sense and science'.

[tomtom]

It’s fucking gobsmacking how stupid their reaction has been. NYC was their equivalent of Lombardy/Italy to Europe... iow they have had their warning!!

[petejh]

I wondered this morning - not expecting to be right - if the growth in US cases might be mostly down to the growth in testing. It's not:

[SA Chris]

Easy to point fingers across the sea, but given photos of beaches, I think we are far from out of the woods here.

[tomtom]

Easy to point fingers across the sea, but given photos of beaches, I think we are far from out of the woods here.

Indeed. Though I think Ricky has one eye on the overdraft - thinking oh. Fuck.

[Oldmanmatt]

Honestly, from what I was seeing three weeks ago, or more, I thought we’d be seeing a sharp up tick in cases.
We’re not yet.

Mostly, not entirely, in the US it seems to be a case of where the virus has only just penetrated. So, very much the first wave.

Except Florida, but that Governor seems to be a lying, delusional, prick.

[sdm]

Honestly, from what I was seeing three weeks ago, or more, I thought we’d be seeing a sharp up tick in cases.
We’re not yet.

I've been expecting this for a while based on the fact that a large number of people have gone back to normal and gave up on any observance of social distancing a long time ago.

If nothing else, I was expecting the virus to tear through that section of the population. But thankfully it hasn't.

I don't think we can explain why it hasn't based on what we think we know about the virus.

My layman's attempt at making sense of what is or is not the preventing the spread:
1) It isn't behavioural. As above, a large enough proportion of the population have been behaving as if there is no virus for the past 5 or 6 weeks now.
2) It isn't the weather. Look at how hard Houston and Florida are being hit.
3) It is unlikely to be explained by a mutation that had made it less infectious and or serious. With the limited travel occurring, it is unlikely that such a mutation would have taken effect all over Europe at a similar time without affecting America.
4) It seems unlikely that our understanding of the rate of spread and incubation period are way off given the amount of data we now have.
5) All I'm left with is that our understanding of the number of people who have had it and/or the number of people who are immune to it are way off. I am cautiously optimistic that there are higher levels of immunity in the population than our current numbers predict.

I could be wrong, (and there is no guarantee that any immunity will be long lasting), but immunity levels are the area where our understanding is weakest and it seems the most likely explanation for why the behavioural change hasn't led to a second peak.

[tomtom]

They’re not dropping off though are they.. (new cases)

I think the govt has so far just about got away with easing things - but we won’t find out properly for a couple of weeks yet I guess. They’re obvs cutting restrictions based on predictions of decline.. so it’s a gamble.

The hard part will be getting everyone to comply when we have to restrict things again.

[Oldmanmatt]

New projections out today.

Not so hopeful. Interesting that they’re now adding a projection for universal mask usage.

However, based on the easing, they’re no longer predicting functionally zero by August 1st, as they were and without mask use, a second wave in October.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

[mrjonathanr]

5) All I'm left with is that our understanding of the number of people who have had it and/or the number of people who are immune to it are way off. I am cautiously optimistic that there are higher levels of immunity in the population than our current numbers predict.

I could be wrong, (and there is no guarantee that any immunity will be long lasting), but immunity levels are the area where our understanding is weakest and it seems the most likely explanation for why the behavioural change hasn't led to a second peak.

To oversimplify, Sunetra Gupta or Neil Ferguson? We will find out in time. 

[Oldmanmatt]

5) All I'm left with is that our understanding of the number of people who have had it and/or the number of people who are immune to it are way off. I am cautiously optimistic that there are higher levels of immunity in the population than our current numbers predict.

I could be wrong, (and there is no guarantee that any immunity will be long lasting), but immunity levels are the area where our understanding is weakest and it seems the most likely explanation for why the behavioural change hasn't led to a second peak.

To oversimplify, Sunetra Gupta or Neil Ferguson? We will find out in time. 

A couple of days ago, I was starting to lean toward DR Gupta.

However, I think the one place you can find reliable* figures would be the ONS.

Their computer says no.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/uk-coronavirus-cases-no-longer-falling-ons-figures-show-bzt2dvgf3?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1593102079


* For a given value of reliable, somewhere between that of the sun rising tomorrow and a Boris Johnson marriage vow.

[tomtom]

How the ONS data is reported pisses me off. Basically the sample size is too small - so the positive and negative changes in the prevalence in the population are 10-30 people in their 25000 sample who are tested every week or so. Last week it dropped to 11 people - this week its up to 14. The week before it was 19. So its basically a household having it or not... If its a big change - sure I’d be with it - but at the moment its too small a number of results can skew the numbers so much.

Now with the reporting - when it drops the changes are trumpeted - when it rises (as today) it kind of creeps out in the news with a gentle warning...

[IanP]

I've been expecting this for a while based on the fact that a large number of people have gone back to normal and gave up on any observance of social distancing a long time ago.

If nothing else, I was expecting the virus to tear through that section of the population. But thankfully it hasn't.

While plenty of people do seem to be taking a more 'relaxed' view of social distancing we're certainly aren't anyway near back to normal in terms of social contact - people at work are socially distanced, public transport still quiet (outside London?) pubs aren't open (yet!), distancing in shops still working on the whole, no night clubs, sports crowds etc, most people aren't having parties/large gatherings indoors.

2) It isn't the weather. Look at how hard Houston and Florida are being hit.

One possible cause of increase in southern states discussed on FiveThirtyEight is that the hot summer weather there actually moves more people indoors for the air conditioning.

More or Less this week discussed impact of lockdown easing from mid May and found no evidence of any spike in cases, possibly indicating that its actually not that easy to transmit outdoors.

None of this to say that we shouldn't still be very cautious - the next set of easings may be taking us into areas where transmission is much easier?

[Oldmanmatt]

A day of contrasts in info, though.

CDC think there are vastly more people infected/recovered than previously thought.
If that’s true here, then that would also mitigate against a rapid climb on the second wave.
There must be plenty of vulnerable people still in the pool, but possibly the route to them is more circuitous than it was in January. Sheesh! 6 months already (assuming the conservative, late, introduction date).

https://time.com/5859790/cdc-coronavirus-estimates/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_term=health_covid-19&linkId=91880756

[Ged]

Honestly, from what I was seeing three weeks ago, or more, I thought we’d be seeing a sharp up tick in cases.
We’re not yet.

I've been expecting this for a while based on the fact that a large number of people have gone back to normal and gave up on any observance of social distancing a long time ago.

If nothing else, I was expecting the virus to tear through that section of the population. But thankfully it hasn't.

I don't think we can explain why it hasn't based on what we think we know about the virus.

My layman's attempt at making sense of what is or is not the preventing the spread:
1) It isn't behavioural. As above, a large enough proportion of the population have been behaving as if there is no virus for the past 5 or 6 weeks now.
2) It isn't the weather. Look at how hard Houston and Florida are being hit.
3) It is unlikely to be explained by a mutation that had made it less infectious and or serious. With the limited travel occurring, it is unlikely that such a mutation would have taken effect all over Europe at a similar time without affecting America.
4) It seems unlikely that our understanding of the rate of spread and incubation period are way off given the amount of data we now have.
5) All I'm left with is that our understanding of the number of people who have had it and/or the number of people who are immune to it are way off. I am cautiously optimistic that there are higher levels of immunity in the population than our current numbers predict.

I could be wrong, (and there is no guarantee that any immunity will be long lasting), but immunity levels are the area where our understanding is weakest and it seems the most likely explanation for why the behavioural change hasn't led to a second peak.

Or, the virus doesn't rely spread outside, regardless of social distancing or not, and the real test will come when people are socialising back indoors. Which might not be until the autumn.

[teestub]

Or, the virus doesn't rely spread outside, regardless of social distancing or not, and the real test will come when people are socialising back indoors. Which might not be until the autumn.

Or next weekend if it’s wet and everyone is inside the pubs!

[tomtom]

RE: Pubs. My neighbour owns/runs a bar up the road. Small - width of a usual Victorian terrace shop front. Space for a couple of tables outside, bifolds through to bar running down the side and some tables upstairs too.

He's opening - but points he's noted are, ONLY table service/ordering. No standing at the bar drinking/ordering. No music (live or otherwise) presumably to keep the shouting down. His take is that there are going to be groups of young men going bar to bar getting quite disappointed that they can't do exactly what they want to do.

He'll have to employ one extra person during the day. Normally its one person in there during the quiet daytimes - but he'll need someone at the bar - and someone doing the table service. He didnt think one person could do it all...

Final point - which has again gone under the radar. ALL his suppliers want payment up front. For everything, from bog rolls to kegs. This is because of (a) the risk to them and (b) the suppliers suppliers demanding the same terms. This  - he said - was going to create alot of difficulties for some operators who didnt quite have the reserves he had. I would wager this is the case for many businesses opening up around now...

[galpinos]

That's all great Tom but:

1. There's a high chance it'll all go to s**t after 5 pints and i pity the poor bar staff having to sort it out
2. Do you think Wetherspoons are going to be as diligent?

[teestub]

Yeah I wasn’t thinking about swanky micro pubs in MCR being the problem!!

[tomtom]

That's all great Tom but:

1. There's a high chance it'll all go to s**t after 5 pints and i pity the poor bar staff having to sort it out
2. Do you think Wetherspoons are going to be as diligent?

(I'm not in favour of them opening BTW - just reporting what my neighbor said)

[ali k]

His take is that there are going to be groups of young men going bar to bar getting quite disappointed that they can't do exactly what they want to do.

This was the key bit of what tomtom was saying isn’t it? There’ll be groups of half-cut people out and about that haven’t pre-booked and are just trying to get in anywhere. Spoons, swanky bars, the lot. Bouncers are gonna be suffering all manner of abuse and violence way beyond what they already deal with. Or maybe that’s just being too much of a doomster and a gloomster and Great British common sense will shine through. We’ll have a whole new post-Covid drinking culture. Haha

[tomtom]

Yeah I wasn’t thinking about swanky micro pubs in MCR being the problem!!

I don't think it'll be pretty. The 'strip' up the road has 8-10 bars/pubs on it (I've not been to most of them) and on a sunny evening it spills out across the pavements etc..

Anyway - as long as Boris gets his bustle back eh... (face palm emoticon etc..)