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Finance, coronavirus, the economy, etc (Read 53685 times)

tomtom

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This may have been posted before - but I thought this FT commentary summarised quite a lot of what has been discussed in this thread. And some other stuff.

https://www.ft.com/content/7eff769a-74dd-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca

Quite remarkable really that 5 years ago you’d have expected something like this being written in a socialist newsletter - not the FT. Incredible times.

shark

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Link is for subscribers only

petejh

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I subscribed for a quid for one month and then cancelled.

sdm

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This may have been posted before - but I thought this FT commentary summarised quite a lot of what has been discussed in this thread. And some other stuff.

https://www.ft.com/content/7eff769a-74dd-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca

PSA:
Before posting paywalled links, please:
1) Copy the headline
2) Paste it in to Google news
3) Copy the Google news link in to your post.

It gets around the paywall, it saves everyone else from having to go through the same process and it saves people from discussing paywalls after every single article.

petejh

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Here's a musing..

Boris still hasn't recovered from covid19. The tories direction and purpose currently stems in large part from Johnson as front man and Cummings in the background.
My limited understanding of Covid19 is that there's a danger period going into the second week of illness, when you either recover or you risk going into the inflammation over-reaction, lung damage, rapid decline and ventilation, and 50/50 chance of not recovering. *I hope this doesn't happen (to anyone), below is just a musing of what could happen starting next week.

Jonhson's health starts declining next week and he doesn't recover.
Dominic Raab takes the reigns, but doesn't show strong leadership.
Tories flounder for the next month.
Starmer and other select Labour MPs invited to bolster government Covid effort. Proves successful.
Government of national unity formed, remains in place for next 12 months.
A tory government with the largest majority since 1987 never got to leave the starting blocks, stopped in their tracks by the death of its leader and the Covid pandemic.
Labour win next election.

Oldmanmatt

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The thought occurred.

Think that’s the soft end of possible scenarios.

I think losing a head of state (HM not withstanding) would be catastrophic.

I wish the bugger had kept his hands in his pockets.

tomtom

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Yes - looking at the numbers  c.15-20% of those admitted to hospital don’t come out.

Much as I dislike him / I wouldn’t wish any harm to him and now is clearly not the time for anything bad to happen to him.

It does feel like the foot has come off the gas in the last week-ten days (testing, ventilators, Ppe). Dominic Raab eh. Trying to see an upside here...

andy popp

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From what I can tell Lord Palmerston was the last UK Prime Minister to have died in office (1865), so the country would be in very unfamiliar waters. Much as I think he's a reckless and unreliable oaf, the last thing any country needs right now would be such an event.

shark

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Candid nuts and bolts interview with the CEO of one of the UK’s largest car dealerships - how him and his team have reacted to events, where the business is now and what the outlook is.

Quite long and suspect probably not of sustained interest to most.


Murph

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I dont know, the system is pretty robust. Precisely because the PM doesn't (normally) have much power. If a Putin were to die though then there could be trouble.

ali k

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"PM can run country from hospital bed", says senior government minister. Not something I ever thought I'd read. During a huge national and international crisis like this I feel pretty uncomfortable thinking about decisions being made by anyone not working at full capacity. Which surely can't happen when you're so under the weather you end up in hospital!

Doesn't say much for his confidence in Raab if he feels better able to handle it while he's hooked up to a ventilator (yes, I know he probably isn't at that stage...yet)

Offwidth

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T_B

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Quality piece of journalism that. Thanks for posting.

abarro81

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I'm surprised that anyone managed to get a news story out of "investors view large market movements as an opportunity to make money"  :shrug:
(I also could tell if your post was sarcastic or not Tom? I'm assuming it was?)

sdm

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"PM can run country from hospital bed", says senior government minister. Not something I ever thought I'd read. During a huge national and international crisis like this I feel pretty uncomfortable thinking about decisions being made by anyone not working at full capacity. Which surely can't happen when you're so under the weather you end up in hospital!

Doesn't say much for his confidence in Raab if he feels better able to handle it while he's hooked up to a ventilator (yes, I know he probably isn't at that stage...yet)

There's not many harsher critics of Johnson than me.

But I think the country is safer with Johnson running things from his hospital bed right now than with greater roles being given to Raab or Gove.

I hope he makes a full and speedy recovery because I think more people will die if he doesn't.

T_B

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I'm surprised that anyone managed to get a news story out of "investors view large market movements as an opportunity to make money"  :shrug:
(I also could tell if your post was sarcastic or not Tom? I'm assuming it was?)

Yeah, sarcastic. I’m not a fan of this type of yoghurt weaving lefty non story.

Bradders

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Another minister hits the finance headlines.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/05/rees-mogg-firm-accused-of-cashing-in-on-coronavirus-crisis

Fuck me what an absolute load of nonsense, literally reporting "fund manager does job". The Guardian really does bark up the wrong tree sometimes.

And the quotes from Starmer and McDonnell are just as bad. They will both surely know that this is neither "taking advantage of this crisis" or "profit seeking from people's misery", but they've stuck their oars in because the soundbite is good and plays to the rich vs poor narrative they're so desperate to write; essentially they're contributing to fake news. Poor form in my opinion.

petejh

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Quality piece of journalism that. Thanks for posting.

 :lol:

Investment company outed for buying low, with a plan to sell at a higher price in the future. Fuck off  :o

petejh

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Another minister hits the finance headlines.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/05/rees-mogg-firm-accused-of-cashing-in-on-coronavirus-crisis

Fuck me what an absolute load of nonsense, literally reporting "fund manager does job". The Guardian really does bark up the wrong tree sometimes.

And the quotes from Starmer and McDonnell are just as bad. They will both surely know that this is neither "taking advantage of this crisis" or "profit seeking from people's misery", but they've stuck their oars in because the soundbite is good and plays to the rich vs poor narrative they're so desperate to write; essentially they're contributing to fake news. Poor form in my opinion.

This.

I invested a few grand last Thursday in two companies I've followed for years, as I felt there were bargain prices on offer in the current market fallout. Am I wrong to try to make my money work for me by doing that Offwidth?

ali k

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It may be a non-story and just stating what is essentially standard practice. But I can imagine it’s pretty disheartening for frontline nurses and carers to realise that while they’re working day in day out in an overstretched system barely able to cope, seeing some of their colleagues dying, and often not equipped with even the most basic PPE, at the same time some wealthy people with spare cash lying around are using it as an opportunity to make a bit more money. It may not be news, and it may not be wrong, but to me it still seems distasteful somehow.

Somebody's Fool

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Isn't there a conflict of interest here though?

If someone who has so much early access to, or even agency over, the policies which will affect the markets is using that information to steal a march on other investors, then he's not just any 'investor.'



Or am I being naive?

petejh

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It may be a non-story and just stating what is essentially standard practice. But I can imagine it’s pretty disheartening for frontline nurses and carers to realise that while they’re working day in day out in an overstretched system barely able to cope,......

Sure. Then why publish it? And why post the link here?? If it's a non-story and disheartening (to some).

As for distasteful, I guess everybody is different. Distasteful to me would be celebrating about any opportunity this disaster creates. Seeing an opportunity and making use of it however, that's just rational (to me).


edit:Brutus Somebody's fool, that's a separate and valid point for market sensitive information. Knowing government policies in advance can give an advantage in markets, I don't know how Rees-Mogg's investing record aligns with potential conflicts.
But not for coronavirus. Nothing market sensitive in this event (ventilator companies, mask manufacturers, drug companies..?) - just a global pandemic that approached us in plain sight like a slowly-moving freight train approaching a stalled car.

edit edit: name!




« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 08:02:02 pm by petejh »

Somebody's Fool

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But they'll still be doling out massive contracts to specific suppliers in medical and pharmaceuticals etc in response to this. And it would help to know these sorts of things in advance, would it not?

Also, you've got the wrong Corbynite!

Bradders

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It may be a non-story and just stating what is essentially standard practice. But I can imagine it’s pretty disheartening for frontline nurses and carers to realise that while they’re working day in day out in an overstretched system barely able to cope, seeing some of their colleagues dying, and often not equipped with even the most basic PPE, at the same time some wealthy people with spare cash lying around are using it as an opportunity to make a bit more money. It may not be news, and it may not be wrong, but to me it still seems distasteful somehow.

No I really don't think that's valid, as:

1. That's not what's happening; the story is inherently misleading as it implies people are exploiting the crisis when they're not, in fact pretty much all market participants will have lost a very considerable amount of money because of it (e.g. SCM's Global fund is down nearly 25% over the last month or so). The fund manager has a fiduciary duty to the shareholders/investors and if they weren't acting they'd be liable to them.

2. If those same NHS workers are participants in any sort of pension then it too will have lost a substantial amount of value, and the managers of the pension will now be doing exactly what SCM have said they're doing; looking for opportunities to make it back! This activity is in everyone's interests if they have used their money wisely and saved for the future. Should all those people just stop working (to the significant detriment of savers) just to show solidarity with the NHS?

3. Fund managers are typically remunerated based on the amount of assets they manage, so given the significant falls I mentioned earlier they will be being paid >20% less now than they were before (I know, heart bleeds, but actually margins in fund management have been under significant pressure for a while now and many firms were actually struggling before all this).

Don't get me wrong, there are innumerable issues with the financial services industry and the way it serves society and our economy, but "fund manager does job" is not one of them and this sort of story dog whistles to the politics of envy and simply distracts from real issues.

Isn't there a conflict of interest here though?

If someone who has so much early access to, or even agency over, the policies which will affect the markets is using that information to steal a march on other investors, then he's not just any 'investor.'



Or am I being naive?

Rees-Mogg is simply an investor in the company that runs the funds, he doesn't manage them or, as far as I know, have any involvement in their management. If he were using inside information to make investment decisions he'd be prosecuted under market rules, because that's illegal.

petejh

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Apols SF!

 

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