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Coronavirus Covid-19 (Read 333625 times)

ali k

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#4275 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 28, 2021, 10:39:19 pm
At the risk of going off on a tangent…I think, in the short term at least, the ventilation issue could have been done relatively cheaply and without much in the way of retrofitting additional air handling systems into buildings. A simple CO2 monitor would tell you when you need to open a few windows/doors or ‘purge’ a room.

Plus, having increased CO2 monitoring where data was previously lacking would be a first step in achieving more long-term solutions if we can at least get an idea of where the problems are and so where the investment needs to be directed to.

No idea where this sits with what Labour have or haven’t proposed though.

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#4276 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 28, 2021, 10:56:36 pm
The vaccine thing just makes me giggle.

I’ve had every one available, as far as I know. All the normal ones as a kid (yep, the seven needles and the BCG) and several others including Anthrax and few that I was never told what they were for (Gulf War, 90/91). I’m half way through/about to get, all my boosters for most of them.
Pretty sure I’m no further along the spectrum than I already was and my phone reception hasn’t improved.

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#4277 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 28, 2021, 11:29:35 pm
The vaccine thing just makes me giggle.

I’ve had every one available, as far as I know. ...
Pretty sure I’m no further along the spectrum than I already was and my phone reception hasn’t improved.

Me too.

If anyone who is sceptical about vaccination thought about it for a few seconds,  the tiny risk of any vaccine is so vastly outweighed by the risk associated with catching whatever the vaccine is for that there really shouldn't be any debate whatsoever. 
I'm currently reading the undoing project,  which has some interesting observations about the psychology of decision making and people's assessments of risk and reward.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Undoing_Project

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#4278 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 08:29:42 am
If anyone who is sceptical about vaccination thought about it for a few seconds,  the tiny risk of any vaccine is so vastly outweighed by the risk associated with catching whatever the vaccine is for that there really shouldn't be any debate whatsoever.

Being a pedant, I have to point out that with AstraZeneca, because the blood clotting issue risk (small as it is) increases as you get younger, then if Covid rates in a society are low enough, there's a crossover point where if you're young enough, the risk from the vaccine is actually higher than the risk of catching Covid and being seriously harmed by it (IIRC, if there are high levels of Covid around, the vaccine's safer at any age).

BUT. The salient point is that we know about this risk (because, as previously mentioned, vaccine side-effects show up fast after the jab) and that's why there's the age cut-off for use of AZ in the UK and various other countries, to err on the side of caution.

(And I am over that age cut-off and have had my two doses of AZ because I understand basic statistics.)

It's not that the Covid vaccines are magically side-effect free, or that they can't ever have rare serious side-effects like the clotting issue for AZ (and J&J, at a much lower frequency).

But we have the information on what those side-effects are -- and what they aren't (e.g. the substantial body of evidence proving there's no effect on fertility) -- and can make decisions based on that data.

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#4279 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 08:33:53 am

- border controls cannot remain indefinitely, both for the travel industry/holidays and those who want to see family abroad. At the moment there is no scenario I've yet read about where Labour would be happy for border controls to be lessened. This seems incredibly wrong headed to me.
-

No but the plans announced today are just as clearly poorly planned as any from this government.  Airlines are expected to check vaccine status on check in, any vaccine accepted from these countries as they are trustworthy,  both according to Raab on the today programme this morning.  So ok perhaps with Germany and the United states but what about Hungary,  are they trustworthy? Is a bargain bucket Ryanair operation in Hungary really going to be that hot on proof of vaccination?

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#4280 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 08:41:57 am

- border controls cannot remain indefinitely, both for the travel industry/holidays and those who want to see family abroad. At the moment there is no scenario I've yet read about where Labour would be happy for border controls to be lessened. This seems incredibly wrong headed to me.
-

No but the plans announced today are just as clearly poorly planned as any from this government.  Airlines are expected to check vaccine status on check in, any vaccine accepted from these countries as they are trustworthy,  both according to Raab on the today programme this morning.  So ok perhaps with Germany and the United states but what about Hungary,  are they trustworthy? Is a bargain bucket Ryanair operation in Hungary really going to be that hot on proof of vaccination?

Probably, as soon as they cotton on to an expensive “non-vaccinated” surcharge, for those that haven’t printed out their certificates on exactly the right size sheet of paper…

ali k

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#4281 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 08:57:59 am
No but the plans announced today are just as clearly poorly planned as any from this government.
I'm also not clear what criteria they've used to base this decision on. Vaccination rates in Canada for example are higher than the UK, US, and EU, but as far as I'm aware aren't exempt from quarantine. So clearly not a data driven policy.

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#4282 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 09:12:55 am
No but the plans announced today are just as clearly poorly planned as any from this government.
I'm also not clear what criteria they've used to base this decision on. Vaccination rates in Canada for example are higher than the UK, US, and EU, but as far as I'm aware aren't exempt from quarantine. So clearly not a data driven policy.

Most probably it’s been based on where Cabinet members, Tory MPs and Tory Donors have booked summer holidays or have holiday homes/friends/relatives.

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#4283 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 09:16:19 am
-compulsory masks are largely irrelevant in an open society as large sectors of it cant function with them eg crowded pubs and nightclubs. If you think these shouldn't be open thats fine (though I disagree) but if you don't then compulsory masks are both unworkable and irrelevant anyway as there is an enormous amount of societal contact. I agree that wearing them on public transport is a good courtesy to keep up but it seems increasingly pointless to me. On the tram in Manc a few days ago I wore one but almost nobody else was. Pissing in the wind was the phrase I thought of!

Think about the issue for vulnerable people, though, who may be fully vaccinated but have reduced protection because they're immunocompromised or very elderly (which itself reduces your immune response to the vaccine).

People who go to a nightclub or a crowded pub are making a choice about whether they want to do an optional activity with potentially high levels of Covid exposure. Okay.

But for a lot of people, they have zero choice about whether they can avoid using public transport or going to the supermarket.

So there's some decent logic for keeping masks compulsory in those situations, even if you've got pubs and clubs open and un-masked.

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#4284 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 10:03:55 am
Yeah I agree, I'm happy to keep wearing them, I was just making the point that if nobody else does it starts to feel a bit pointless. I imagine this stage is particularly worrying for vulnerable people and so I've got no intention of going to the supermarket without a mask currently. Equally, if I happened to forget I probably wouldn't feel that bad either as their use seems to have dropped off a cliff where I am at least.

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#4285 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 10:08:13 am
Yeah I agree, I'm happy to keep wearing them, I was just making the point that if nobody else does it starts to feel a bit pointless. I imagine this stage is particularly worrying for vulnerable people and so I've got no intention of going to the supermarket without a mask currently. Equally, if I happened to forget I probably wouldn't feel that bad either as their use seems to have dropped off a cliff where I am at least.
As far as I can see, the majority (at a guess 75/80%) of the people I’ve seen in shops or coming into the Bunker, are still wearing masks.
In the Bunker, that’s been much higher. As a matter of fact, only three people have walked in without masks on in the last ten days and all of them produced and donned their masks when they saw that everybody else was wearing one.

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#4286 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 10:10:55 am
I was at a mostly outdoor event at the local cricket club the other day and very obviously the only one at the bar wearing a mask when buying drinks. I’ll keep doing it because it is the very least thing I can do in the middle of a pandemic.

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#4287 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 10:23:40 am
Masks now being optional is definitely an issue for some, a neighbour of mine is continuing to shield as she has a diminished immune response; now she can no longer drive as she is overdue an assessment from an optometrist for an eye condition, which has to be performed at a specified opticians.

However said opticians can no longer assure her that everyone in the practice will be wearing a mask (‘cos they don’t legally have to). So she can no longer drive, and due to the same mask rules can’t use public transport.

Quite why the decision to drop mask rules in shop and the like was made I fail to understand. Everything required was already in place, and in has a measurable impact on transmission. I can only assume that it is a part of the governments ‘COVID is over, now go and spend money’ narrative.

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#4288 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 04:42:01 pm
And to rapidly increase the numbers of young people with antibodies ahead of autumn’s seasonal pressure, perhaps?

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#4289 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 05:41:41 pm

Quite why the decision to drop mask rules in shop and the like was made I fail to understand. Everything required was already in place, and in has a measurable impact on transmission. I can only assume that it is a part of the governments ‘COVID is over, now go and spend money’ narrative.

Because the Conservative backbench fruit loops like Desmond Swaine were getting angry about it, so Boris threw them some meat, although given the sort of thing he used to write he probably agrees with them anyway.

It's an obviously stupid decision.

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#4290 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 05:43:06 pm
And to rapidly increase the numbers of young people with antibodies long COVID ahead of autumn’s seasonal pressure, perhaps?

Edited for you...

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#4291 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 07:17:18 pm

Being a pedant, I have to point out that with AstraZeneca, because the blood clotting issue risk (small as it is) increases as you get younger, then if Covid rates in a society are low enough, there's a crossover point where if you're young enough, the risk from the vaccine is actually higher than the risk of catching Covid and being seriously harmed by it (IIRC, if there are high levels of Covid around, the vaccine's safer at any age).

The risk of blood clots is a lot less than it is for the contraceptive pill and there is a brilliant, no side-effects alternative to the pill (for the vast majority of people that use it to prevent pregnancy although I accept there are some who use it for other things). I can't help but feel that the huge amount of caution that is being taken is because it affects males as well as females.

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#4292 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 09:21:29 pm
The risk of blood clots is a lot less than it is for the contraceptive pill and there is a brilliant, no side-effects alternative to the pill (for the vast majority of people that use it to prevent pregnancy although I accept there are some who use it for other things). I can't help but feel that the huge amount of caution that is being taken is because it affects males as well as females.

The risk is different to the one created by the pill. From what I understand, the risk of having a major clotting event is similar, but the cause is different. That may sound like pedantry, but it creates significant differences. The AZ vaccine generates an auto-immune response that affects platelets, causing them to bunch into clots. The simultaneous effect of having low platelets (preventing a proper clotting response) and having clots as well means that there is no effective treatment - they can't use normal anti-clotting medication. Also, anecdotally, there are "a lot" (whatever that means) of cases of people with non-life threatening AZ related clotting issues that haven't resulted in major clotting events, but they don't appear to getting better as time passes. No-one knows what long terms issues this might cause, or if those people will have a long-term risk of major clotting events. This is from a consultant working alongside a specialist team that are getting "a lot" of referrals. I have no idea what that translates into as a statistical risk and there is likely to be a degree of bias caused by the patients all being concentrated into that clinic. This is also from a month or two ago, so there may be more knowledge now.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2021, 09:45:08 pm by Ru »

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#4293 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 09:30:50 pm
That’s an eye-widening snippet of info Ru.. Do you have any links to anything published?
What are the symptoms for ‘clotting issues’, versus clotting events?

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#4294 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 29, 2021, 09:34:03 pm
That’s an eye-widening snippet of info Ru.. Do you have any links to anything published?
What are the symptoms for ‘clotting issues’, versus clotting events?

I'm not aware of anything published yet, it's all a bit vague, but from a decent source. Symptoms of clotting issues can be things like bruising and petechial rash - basically when you bleed through your skin. It's very difficult to know what it means on a population level as the numbers might turn out to be very low percentages. I also don't know if they're reported using the Yellow Card system, but as Yellow Card events can be self reported there's a lot of dross. If you read through all the reported yellow card events, there's stuff in there like getting cosmetic surgery which I'm pretty sure isn't a genuine vaccine reaction.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2021, 09:43:00 pm by Ru »

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#4295 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 30, 2021, 07:07:41 am

I'm quite frustrated with people that can't understand Labour mainly disagree with the government on pretty sensible factors like mask compulsion, border controls, funded self isolation for people who won't otherwise be paid, and funding support to improve indoor ventilation ..... all of which might suddenly become very important if we have any new variant with vaccine escape.

I've immediately remembered why I stopped posting about covid...I disagree with almost everything in the above sentence (bar the funded self isolation which is long overdue). In brief:

-compulsory masks are largely irrelevant in an open society as large sectors of it cant function with them eg crowded pubs and nightclubs. If you think these shouldn't be open thats fine (though I disagree) but if you don't then compulsory masks are both unworkable and irrelevant anyway as there is an enormous amount of societal contact. I agree that wearing them on public transport is a good courtesy to keep up but it seems increasingly pointless to me. On the tram in Manc a few days ago I wore one but almost nobody else was. Pissing in the wind was the phrase I thought of!
- border controls cannot remain indefinitely, both for the travel industry/holidays and those who want to see family abroad. At the moment there is no scenario I've yet read about where Labour would be happy for border controls to be lessened. This seems incredibly wrong headed to me.
- indoor ventilation is absolutely something we should be improving, but should be done alongside opening things up. Clearly we can't wait for this enormous amount of building work to be completed before relaxing things of HS2 will be done before it (maybe!). Again, I'm not clear on Labour's timeline for improving ventilation and how it related to relaxing things. They obviously have to happen concurrently. I agree it would have multi faceted benefits though Ali.

Well that may be your view on masks but pretty much all the experts seem to think compulsion should  have remained. Pubs and restaurants always had their R number factored in for this and  people choose to go to them. Many on public transport, in work or other essential indoor visits don't get to chose. Those experts also think nightclubs shouldn't be open yet and should be given continued financial support. Covid risk hasn't all gone away and a workforce catching covid is a massive strain on an organisation, hence,  masks are still compulsory indoors in quite a few workplaces. Part of the reason many people stopped wearing masks in public is because they could: they didnt want to wear them and didn't understand the benefits. It didnt help that much of our government messaging was the opposite to the scientific position.

Labour never said border controls should remain indefinitely but borders have been managed chaotically throughout the pandemic. Well managed borders are important. At the really bad end, one variant with vaccine escape and we are stuffed as we don't have a good enough track and trace system to stop it running wild through the vaccinated population. On a more mundane level a lot of Labour's complaints have been about specific poor planning that bears little resemblance to a data driven approach, the worst example being red yellow and green arrivals queuing together for immigration.

Others dealt with ventilation. Much more could be done pretty quickly in terms of clearer advice and financial support. If things do go wrong we will certainly need it.


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#4297 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 30, 2021, 09:15:24 am
[The simultaneous effect of having low platelets (preventing a proper clotting response) and having clots as well means that there is no effective treatment - they can't use normal anti-clotting medication.

I thought the current protocol was non-heparin anticoagulants and intravenous immunoglobulin?

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1914
https://www.hematology.org/covid-19/vaccine-induced-immune-thrombotic-thrombocytopenia

Don't know how effective that is, but certainly the fatality rate has been dropping: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/ema-logs-more-clotting-cases-after-astrazeneca-shot-death-rate-lower-2021-05-28/

I will note that not long after my first jab, I got a severe headache with nausea and vomiting which wasn't a normal migraine for me but which ticked all the boxes in the leaflet you get after AZ about potential warning symptoms, and ended up being advised by NHS 111 to go to A&E a.s.a.p. and get a blood test (which I did -- turned out all was fine). So, not trying to downplay this issue, because that was a somewhat scary way to spend a day.

But the stats still make it clear that (subject to previous caveats re: trade-offs and age cut-offs), AZ is much safer than getting Covid.

And it sucks that AZ has this issue, however rare, because in other respects it seems like a workhorse.

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#4298 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 30, 2021, 09:17:30 am
That’s an eye-widening snippet of info Ru.. Do you have any links to anything published?
What are the symptoms for ‘clotting issues’, versus clotting events?

I'm not aware of anything published yet, it's all a bit vague, but from a decent source. Symptoms of clotting issues can be things like bruising and petechial rash - basically when you bleed through your skin. It's very difficult to know what it means on a population level as the numbers might turn out to be very low percentages. I also don't know if they're reported using the Yellow Card system, but as Yellow Card events can be self reported there's a lot of dross. If you read through all the reported yellow card events, there's stuff in there like getting cosmetic surgery which I'm pretty sure isn't a genuine vaccine reaction.

There's this, on a possible small increased risk of ITP (autoimmune bleeding disorder which is different from TTS):

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1489

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#4299 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 30, 2021, 09:29:46 am
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58020090

Now offering you $100 in the US to get the vaccine. Can't see that getting abused.

 

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