[andy popp]

Also, isn't it worth waiting the few extra weeks during the lower risk summer period and getting better overall protection for the winter waves?

As far as I know, Pfizer's pretty bombproof at any interval -- 8 weeks seems to be the minimum interval the current system allows with any vaccine, but Pfizer's handed out at a 4-week interval (the one originally studied) in plenty of places round the world.

To kind of corroborate, I get second dose of Pfizer next week after a five week interval (Denmark).

[Duma]

Aha:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/06/C1324-Letter-to-vaccination-sites-15-June-2021.pdf

From the 21st, they're going to be inviting people in their 40s who've got their 2nd appointment more than 9 weeks from the first dose to rebook.

Also they're "shortly" going to have the booking system fixed so people can see availability before cancelling their original appointment.

Also they're "shortly" going to have the booking system fixed so people can see availability before cancelling their original appointment.

I rebooked mine last night using the cancel/rebook system and whilst it briefly felt risky and 'wrong', I had the new appointment booked within about 35 seconds. If anyone else is putting this off I would suggest just crack on.

Thanks slab_happy - just went in and redid mine - 22 days earlier and bang on 8 weeks

[seankenny]

Is the reason why delta has become prevalent here because we have a relatively large Indian population who were likely to be traveling there to see families etc? It doesn't mean the government is blameless, but perhaps even if Germany had the same border policy it wouldn't be as bad there anyway?

Good question.

I live quite close to Hounslow, one of the borough councils hit hard by the delta variant first off, to the point it was one of the six areas we were supposed not to travel into. So I put a little London knowledge to work to attempt a rough and ready answer. I got some basic data on four London boroughs with high Asian populations (city wide they are 18% of Londoners).

Borough           % Asian     Deprivation rank (1 = most deprived, to 317)         Delta cases (latest figs)

Harrow               39%            199                                                                       191

Hillingdon           32%             151                                                                      386

Hounslow           31%             95                                                                        312

Tower Hamlets   40%             27                                                                        235


Clearly this isn't a particularly rigorous analysis, and I couldn't find any delta case numbers for say three or four weeks ago, which would be best to answer this question. Hounslow, which is very Indian, and next door Hillingdon, now have pretty high rates. But leafy Harrow, which is full of Asian (mostly Indian) professionals, has a much lower rate. Loads more multi-generational/shared homes in Hounslow for sure and Harrow's lawyers can effectively quarantine themselves in a way that Hounslow taxi drivers cannot. Not that I am trading in cheap ethnic stereotypes here 

Tower Hamlets is both really poor and has a lot of Asian residents, but... they are mostly of Bangladeshi origin. I'm sure data on this exists but this is one of the basic features of London life (Brick Lane etc). Anyhow their delta virus cases are nearer those of posh Harrow. And of course Bangladesh has been on the red list. Clearly it would be interesting to replicate this with areas with high numbers of Pakistani origin households...

I wouldn't say this is anything like evidence, but to me it's a strong suggestion that a lack of quarantine for those arriving from India was a part of what allowed the delta variant to seed itself in the UK very quickly.

[Oldmanmatt]

I didn’t have to cancel to rebook my appointment.
I just went in (followed the link in the text) and made the new appointment and the old one was automatically cancelled. Surely the system can’t be so regionally specific?

[TobyD]

. Surely the system can’t be so regionally specific?

Surely it can't all be running through local organisations, and this is why it's gone ok, rather than entirely by the government who've screwed up everything else? Oh hang on a second...

[tomtom]

MrsTT’s friend and colleague has tested positive. As have her 18 and 21 yo kids who love with her.

She is double Pfizer dosed (March). Presently with a very bad head cold. Her husband also double dosed is negative.

Delta growth is now exponential - and we have minimal distancing measures in place - so it’s going to ‘rip’ to some degree. As an aside Delta is clearly highly effective - the rate at which it’s displaced Alpha is quite something, twice as fast as how Alpha replaced the original dominant version.

It strikes me there’s quite a gamble from the government here - that we have broken the link between cases and hospitalisation. If vaccination doesn’t - and hospitalisation rates amongst the younger were much higher in India - then we’re in quite a spot of bother (for the third or fourth time…).

[spidermonkey09]

MrsTT’s friend and colleague has tested positive. As have her 18 and 21 yo kids who love with her.

She is double Pfizer dosed (March). Presently with a very bad head cold. Her husband also double dosed is negative.

Delta growth is now exponential - and we have minimal distancing measures in place - so it’s going to ‘rip’ to some degree. As an aside Delta is clearly highly effective - the rate at which it’s displaced Alpha is quite something, twice as fast as how Alpha replaced the original dominant version.

It strikes me there’s quite a gamble from the government here - that we have broken the link between cases and hospitalisation. If vaccination doesn’t - and hospitalisation rates amongst the younger were much higher in India - then we’re in quite a spot of bother (for the third or fourth time…).

What do you mean by 'broken?' In this context 'severely weakened' and 'broken' in practice mean the same thing, as there will always be some level of hospitalisations proportionate to cases; just a lower proportion once everyone is jabbed. My point being that there will always be a link, just at a lower level. I've yet to see any data or article which suggests that this link has not been severely weakened, so I don't see it as a gamble. Am I missing something?

Hope your friend recovers; with any luck the jabs will do their job and prevent any severe effects. Sound like they might be doing their job already if the husband remains negative!

[slab_happy]

Looks like you can now check appointment availability on the website before you cancel your original appointment:

https://twitter.com/fordie/status/1405281727761711109

Minimum interval is 8 weeks.

[slab_happy]

MrsTT’s friend and colleague has tested positive. As have her 18 and 21 yo kids who love with her.

She is double Pfizer dosed (March). Presently with a very bad head cold.

Fingers crossed that's as bad as it gets for her -- the vaccination should still be reducing the severity of disease and vastly cutting her odds of hospitalization.

Also FWIW, "infection plus vaccination" seems to give you super-immunity, so I'd guess it works the other way around too and she'll be bulletproof after this.

[tomtom]

@spidermonkey - no need to be quite so snappy!!*

It’s the word the govt/media have been using.


*I’m sure you didn’t mean it - but I’d stopped posting on here as it felt like things I said would just be jumped/picked on.

[tomtom]

MrsTT’s friend and colleague has tested positive. As have her 18 and 21 yo kids who love with her.

She is double Pfizer dosed (March). Presently with a very bad head cold.

Fingers crossed that's as bad as it gets for her -- the vaccination should still be reducing the severity of disease and vastly cutting her odds of hospitalization.

That’s the gamble though isn’t it… right now we have (very little) data on how less severe her illness or hospitalisation is. I’m more cautious than some (it would appear) but the way it’s growing (despite high vaccination levels) concerns me. As stated in earlier posts - many other countries must be watching the UK experiment with some nervousness…

[slab_happy]

What do you mean by 'broken?' In this context 'severely weakened' and 'broken' in practice mean the same thing, as there will always be some level of hospitalisations proportionate to cases; just a lower proportion once everyone is jabbed. My point being that there will always be a link, just at a lower level. I've yet to see any data or article which suggests that this link has not been severely weakened, so I don't see it as a gamble. Am I missing something?

Well, we're gambling that the link has been weakened enough that (with the 4-week delay to Step 4) we can get through this with hospitalizations at a level that can be managed without fucking up the NHS (or their capacity to keep working on the vast backlog of delayed care), and hopefully with very few deaths.

The data is pretty hopeful, but it's being extrapolated from what are (at the moment) small numbers of cases in the UK; it's all provisional and rough estimates right now. This is science being done very very fast on the fly.

So, for example, right now, we've got indications that Delta increases the risk of hospitalizations -- but does it double it? just under double? x 2.5? Different info pointing to different numbers -- we know it's probably in that range but it hasn't been pinned down yet. But that extra 0.5 (or not) will make a significant difference to the hospitalization numbers.

There are going to be surprises, there are things we don't know, there are rough estimates that'll turn out to be wrong, just because that's the nature of where we are right now.

I am personally relatively optimistic right now that we can hit "rough but manageable". But yeah, it's a gamble, because everything right now has to be, and my fingers are crossed very hard.

[spidermonkey09]

Snappy not intended; we are both simply posting on a discussion forum at the same time TT...(ie hours when I at least should be working!). Thats the second time recently that you've clutched your pearls and implied I'm trolling or motivated by some personal animus when its nothing of the sort. Its slightly tiresome, so for clarity- its a topic I am interested in, I'm interested in your point of view and these are the hours when I tend to be browsing UKB! Nothing more, nothing less

Back on topic, I know its the phrase the govt/media have been using- but I've been a bit confused about the extent of the 'break' we are looking for, for the reasons above. From what I've read it seems fairly probable that hospitalisations will be kept within the 'rough but manageable' frame, although there is obviously some uncertainty there. What is clear is that with the increased transmissibility and risk of hospitalisation that Delta has brought, without the level of vaccination we have we would be royally fucked!

[tomtom]

Clutched my pearls! Implying you’re trolling!

I don’t know how more politely I could have warned you how your post came across. This time I’ll be blunt - your last one comes across as bullying to me - which I think isn’t on.

I’ll leave now. Which is probably what you’d like - so well done. Have a great day.

[Will Hunt]

FWIW I didn't think Jim's first post was snappy in the slightest. I'm sure you've accused him of trolling before and I couldn't see it there either.

[TobyD]

Clutched my pearls! Implying you’re trolling!

I don’t know how more politely I could have warned you how your post came across. This time I’ll be blunt - your last one comes across as bullying to me - which I think isn’t on.

I’ll leave now. Which is probably what you’d like - so well done. Have a great day.

I always think your contribution to the forum is intelligent and worth reading to be honest.
Let's not all fall out arguing the toss about a potentially nasty disease, which will hopefully fuck off asap so we can get back to arguing about something else  like grabbing chains, brushing holds... The really important things in life. Frankly covid has totally killed my climbing motivation which I'd really like to regain.

[petejh]

I always think your contribution to the forum is intelligent and worth reading to be honest.

I think TT contributes many pearls of wisdom.

[galpinos]

As much as I'm attempting to remain optimistic I know people and NW West hospitals and Sheffield hospitals who are betting on a worse than predicted "third wave" and are currently assuming their hospital is going to get very/too busy.

I only live down the road from TT and have a similar experience, we've gone from not really knowing anyone with Covid but seeing it in all my wife's patients, to suddenly knowing a lot of people with it, some suffering quite badly (i.e. 17yo nephew).

Unlike Toby, my climbing mojo is still very high though, probably as I'm trying to climb as much as possible before we get locked down again!

[Duma]

Clutched my pearls! Implying you’re trolling!

I don’t know how more politely I could have warned you how your post came across. This time I’ll be blunt - your last one comes across as bullying to me - which I think isn’t on.

I’ll leave now. Which is probably what you’d like - so well done. Have a great day.

What a crock of shit. His post comes across fine. Will's reply was spot on

[spidermonkey09]

TT, if you'd like you can scroll back in the thread to find your own posts; I'm not making them up. As for the bullying accusation, I think thats bollocks and out of order. Please drop me a PM if you want to discuss it some more; obviously I don't want to upset anyone but I don't think thats a fair criticism in the slightest.

Apologies for inadvertently derailing the thread!

[nik at work]

I also can’t see any snappy/bullying/trolling in spider monkeys post.

Think you’ve misjudged this one tbh TT, would be a shame if that really was you done.

I don’t post much any more but I do read, and I value your (and others) contributions.

[tomtom]

Fine. I'm clearly reading this one wrong. FWIW, 'over-reacted' is a less pejorative alternative to 'clutching your pearls'.

Apologies @spidermonkey.

Clearly I need to start all my posts with "no offence but, " :D

[kelvin]

Clearly I need to start all my posts with "no offence but, " :D

And also an offer of a £20 note to all readers.

I'll post my bank details shortly.

[ali k]

I don't think spidermonkey sounded snappy or bullying, but in defence of TT it's easy to misinterpret on t'internet. Easily done even in person when you're in the wrong mood!

[spidermonkey09]

No probs TT