[tomtom]

Good info. To save those clicking- you need to be near / in one of the health trusts/hospitals in Hull, Sheffield, Birmingham, Newcastle or London (I may have missed one or two - sorry) to be part of the trials.

[slab_happy]

Yeah, the areas where they're recruiting are:

West Midlands
Hull and East Riding
London and the Surrounding Areas
North East of England
Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Lincolnshire and Leicestershire Area
Sheffield Area
Merseyside Area

Detailed info on exactly which postcode areas at the site.

FWIW: being in a vaccine trial (ENSEMBLE 2) has been a really positive experience for me. Unexpectedly, I think it may have been the single best thing I've done for my mental health during the pandemic.

[Oldmanmatt]

 

https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-deniers-event-leaves-host-dead-12-infected-1583553

[slab_happy]

For anyone in the South West who fancies a vaccine trial --

https://comflucov.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/

Looking at whether Covid vaccines can be given at the same time as the flu vaccine. They want adults who've already had one shot of a Covid vaccine.

[slab_happy]

Got Covid, tested positive, got better without needing to be hospitalized?

These people want your blood:

https://covid.genomicc.org/

They're looking for genetic factors that might affect why some people get extremely ill while others are more mildly affected or even asymptomatic. Research consortium being led by the University of Edinburgh.

[Oldmanmatt]

Has anyone else looked at the situation in India on the Worldometer site?
There doesn’t seem to be the normal lag between deaths and cases, only around a week of so. Is this just what happens when health care is overwhelmed?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

[tomtom]

A fair bit of speculation that deaths are being heavily under reported.

[slab_happy]

Another vaccine trial:

https://www.ukcovid19study.com/

No placebo group -- they're testing Valneva against AstraZeneca (anyone under 30 will definitely get Valneva).

In terms of self-interest: if you're not eligible in the national rollout yet and would like to get a probably-effective vaccine now, good opportunity to do that. Also, yanno, contributes to science and all that.

[slab_happy]

Good piece on the Recovery Trial (the one that, among other things, found that dexamethasone works):

https://www.vox.com/22397833/dexamethasone-coronavirus-uk-recovery-trial

[SA Chris]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56891326

EU wanting to suspend use of the AZ vaccine, while simultaneously suing them for not producing enough.

[Offwidth]

Table 3 on this link gives a useful variant tracker for those getting twitchy for news about the Indian variant etc whilst the normal government Thursday update on variant data is delayed (again).

http://sars2.cvr.gla.ac.uk/cog-uk/

The government data page translates the variant IDs to the countries of origin (Indian variants at the bottom)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data

[tomtom]

Situation in Bolton isn’t looking good… today’s figures show just under 200 cases per 100k - a 125% increase in a week… most of those are the Indian variant.

I expect we’re going to find out in the next few weeks how different or not it is to the existing variants. Whatever restrictions or not are made.

[Paul B]

It's interesting to read that the legislation works in steps, which like the tiers allow for local measures. Didn't Bolton just dare vote Labour too? 

The response in Blackburn looks to be to push for more vaccination (with anyone over 18 eligible in 3-wards):
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1392840043803287563?s=20

Jen Williams was also reporting that SAGE were meeting re: Bolton (perhaps yesterday).

[tomtom]

It's interesting to read that the legislation works in steps, which like the tiers allow for local measures. Didn't Bolton just dare vote Labour too? 

The response in Blackburn looks to be to push for more vaccination (with anyone over 18 eligible in 3-wards):
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1392840043803287563?s=20

Jen Williams was also reporting that SAGE were meeting re: Bolton (perhaps yesterday).

Manchester have been pushing heavily for vaccinations in all ages in Bolton too... No news from Govt yet..

I was looking at the age profile of those in Bolton who had the India variant (it was a good graphic on sky news) and it seemed pretty consistent across the age groups...

The AZ vaccine ((differently branded) has been the main one rolled out in India - so presumably they should be able to get some real world data on its efficacy sooner rather than later.

[spidermonkey09]

Until the case numbers start markedly affecting admissions and deaths I don't think it will make too much difference. There is plenty of real world data out there suggesting the vaccines work fine against this variant. Whitty said as much in the last press conference. I confess to feeling slightly perplexed at the sense of panic.

[tomtom]

Until the case numbers start markedly affecting admissions and deaths I don't think it will make too much difference. There is plenty of real world data out there suggesting the vaccines work fine against this variant. Whitty said as much in the last press conference. I confess to feeling slightly perplexed at the sense of panic.

Well - back in November with a Kent variant people were saying the same as you have above… and that didn’t turn out very well. However, the background (60%+ vaccinated) is significantly different.

Living in Greater Manchester - there’s no PANIC here - but certainly amongst those I’ve talked to a sense of dread that once again we’ll be in some sort of special measures / local lockdown again soon.

Which are totally valid worries given the rumblings from the govt. Also, don’t forget that this region had only 4-6 weeks early last summer when everything was open - then went into local restrictions from late July.  Nationally - it’s been the most restricted region since this all started. Personally - I don’t care about going to the pub or eating out - but it would be nice for our Lad to be able to see his Grandparents for an extended period - and for us to go away for a week or so.

[TobyD]

Until the case numbers start markedly affecting admissions and deaths I don't think it will make too much difference. There is plenty of real world data out there suggesting the vaccines work fine against this variant. Whitty said as much in the last press conference. I confess to feeling slightly perplexed at the sense of panic.

Well - back in November with a Kent variant people were saying the same as you have above… and that didn’t turn out very well. However, the background (60%+ vaccinated) is significantly different.

Living in Greater Manchester - there’s no PANIC here - but certainly amongst those I’ve talked to a sense of dread that once again we’ll be in some sort of special measures / local lockdown again soon.

Which are totally valid worries given the rumblings from the govt. Also, don’t forget that this region had only 4-6 weeks early last summer when everything was open - then went into local restrictions from late July.  Nationally - it’s been the most restricted region since this all started. Personally - I don’t care about going to the pub or eating out - but it would be nice for our Lad to be able to see his Grandparents for an extended period - and for us to go away for a week or so.

I have a nasty feeling that this may not go well.  The prime minister is trying to sound confident and cannot back down on the unlocking because of the uproar he'd get from his backbenchers.  It has a bit of an echo of Autumn last year as TT says. They'll try regional restrictions,  again and then they won't work,  again,  perhaps? Its a gloomy guess but the government's record isn't exactly great.

[Johnny Brown]

Did regional restrictions not work? It seems like they did to me. Case numbers dropped steadily over the tier 3 period in November across the worst affected regions. The national lockdown was caused by the appearance of the kent variant, the surge due to the mixing at Christmas and arguably exacerbated by the normal London-centric bias. Unless vaccination can bring the numbers in the north under control quickly I think we'll be back to tiers pronto.

[tomtom]

I don’t know JB. I guess it must have helped COVID things to an extent.

With the Kent variant/London pre Xmas lockdown that didn’t work as well as a national one would have? It was already widespread by then? Are we close to that now?


 Though They certainly caused economic harm and quite some resentment (as there was next to no compensation as there has been under national schemes). Remember how Boris traded Manchester off against Liverpool as to who got the surge testing and who came out of restrictions first.

As Toby said - we’ve had 3-4 months of fairly clear instructions - a plan - a set of rules for unlocking and Boris may have painted himself into a corner here and we’ll be back to flip flopping again.

Remember how 2-3 months ago “there will be no regional restrictions” etc…

We have a catch22 at the moment - as we need data about the Indian variant spread in order to determine what to do - but by the time we get the data it may well be too late! (As happened with Kent variant).

[SA Chris]

I think the tiers system worked in the past and appears to be a sensible approach. Strangely, Moray is the only region in Scotland that has more restrictions than elsewhere, subject to change on Monday. Shame as you need to travel through it to get to the NW.

[Paul B]

Did regional restrictions not work? It seems like they did to me.

Lancs went into no household mixing around the end of July (Leicester etc.). They didn't appear to work locally here (although I guess things could've been worse with no such restrictions).

[battery]

I have no hard evidence but I am dubious about local tiers systems - people travel, for work, for family - people ignore the restrictions.

We live right on the border of three different counties, all three were in different tiers before Christmas and it caused huge disruption - one child's swimming lesson was on, one wasn't, I could travel 30 miles west but not half a mile east, people were coming from the nearest big town to go to the pub... It all just spirals from there.

Maybe I'm being synical and grumpy.  I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. Just as we were beginning to make plans a look forwards, I'm urging caution to myself to go back to thinking day by day.

Lockdowns seem like a very blunt instrument when we have huge testing capabilities, surely a better plan would be to get everyone in a town/area to have a PCR test once a week?

[TobyD]

I think the tiers system worked in the past and appears to be a sensible approach.

Sort of, except that as others have mentioned, people get resentful, ignore the restrictions, and just go to another area to go shopping or the pub.
It's been well acknowledged that part of the reason why the winter deaths were so bad, is that the number of infections remained high in a few places which acted as incubators, and then a catalyst for an increase in cases which became uncontrollable too quickly to stop. Then we had a really long lockdown.
It just seems that the data not dates stuff is bullshit, and they're determined to open up anyway.
It's plainly stupid to bring in international travel right now as well, much as I'm desperate to go away somewhere.
But maybe I'm just cynical and grumpy too.

[Johnny Brown]

Lancs went into no household mixing around the end of July (Leicester etc.). They didn't appear to work locally here

Okay, here's Leicester. First region to go into local restrictions, on 4th July. Seems to have worked.


Here's Salford. Much of the North is similar. Looking back, the early summer numbers seem too perhaps too low to be affected.


Schools went back nationally in Sept, after which general return to normal and numbers steadily rose despite some areas still in special measures. National tier system cam in mid-Oct, seems to have been very effective until Kent variant appeared early Dec. Note that during Nov numbers in both areas dropped quicker than they did under national lockdown after xmas. The other point is that much of the north had a big second wave in autumn which exceeded early 2021. But the national approach followed London numbers.

[Paul B]

Your embedding didn't work for me:

Leic:
http://adamlong.co.uk/files/export(1).png

Here's Salford.
http://adamlong.co.uk/files/export.png