Having the extra ice cream is very good of you x
I don't think anybody was under any illusions that the scheme wouldn't lead to more cases, but literally any policy less severe than chaining everybody to their radiators for the whole summer would have had to same effect to a greater or lesser degree. The question is, was it worth it?
We took advantage of it by going out for lunch to places where we could sit outside, and we bought more coffees/ice creams-to-go than we otherwise would have done, but seeing photos of multiple generations crowded round a table in a curry house seemed daft.
Eat-out-to-help-out was designed to get people together in high numbers again (albeit 'covid-safe') in order to increase people's confidence in going out quickly rather than allowing that to come back naturally over a longer period.
I'm extrapolating a bit. But Boris said a number of times through summer that he wanted to get people confident going out and about again to get the economy moving. That was his primary focus. I think they just misjudged it.
in some areas that was enough to tip the balance back to an exponential increase from mid-late August.
I think we agree on that. Better enforcement of the rules...
Quote from: Sidehaas on October 30, 2020, 05:52:44 pmI think we agree on that. Better enforcement of the rules...I thought that initially but having reflected on it I think by the time you're requiring enforcement you're f*cked.
I'm not surprised that restaurants got as many bums on seats as they could. The rules around that should probably have been tighter and/or better enforced.
Quote from: Sidehaas on October 30, 2020, 05:52:44 pmin some areas that was enough to tip the balance back to an exponential increase from mid-late August.Sorry, I feel like a nitpicking dick now, but isn't this also speculation? Anything above R=1 in a population will leave to exponential growth. Is that R was sitting below 1 and it was EOTHO that made the increase to >1? I'd be surprised if you could disaggregate EOTHO from the other factors causing increased transmission. Gyms, inter-household visiting, people going dogging again etc etc etc.
what seems significant is how much higher the probabilities are for the USA compared to almost everywhere else. I knew it was bad there but I didn't realise how much worse than the UK it was.