[Oldmanmatt]

I heard on the radio just now (can’t find it online) that there is a Greater manchester NHS memo thats been leaked to the MEN that says at present rates we’ll be at the peak rate of hospital admissions here in Manchester by the end of the month.

The whole country will be there at the end of this month.
If things don’t change.
IHME have been fairly reliable, so far, I don’t see any reason to doubt their current forcast.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

[chris j]

Would it be worth booking a private antibody test? I’ve see some advertised for around £100.

Bupa do them for £65. No need to have cover with them, just book online. I had one this morning (booked last friday), took 5 minutes, should get the answer in 3 to 5 days. Mostly out of curiousity as l had a fever etc back in April time, couldn't get any diagnosis as it wasn't really bad enough for hospital, and haven't been quite right since (resting heart rate has never gone back to normal range and any strength training has just dropped off the charts...)

[Nigel]

I just checked and you're right - England only.

It does feel like it isn't working, though in reality I don't know what to compare it to.

It isn't working, either by SAGE's stated requirements (80% of contacts reached to be effective), or strategically. TTTI is meant to be a substitute for generalised lockdowns. Currently we appear to be heading for either a generalised national lockdown, or such widespread local restrictions that it amounts to much the same thing.

The Scotland one is performing far better, but it does have significantly fewer cases to get through. But I guess if you look back at past reports for England (I'm not sure how to get them) they must have had a time with cases were much lower and many people were still being missed then.

Yes Scotland does have fewer cases to deal with as it is a smaller population. This is the argument for devolving contact tracing to smaller local areas within England e.g. local authorities. And as you say even when there were fewer cases  the national Serco system was still missing far too many. Scotland were contact tracing 100% of cases in early August. That said cases are rising in the central belt (although at nothing like the rate of English hotspots), and they are also under local lockdown, so there is obviously a limit to its effectiveness even at 100% reach.

It does feel like there should be penalties for consistently missing targets though!

Hopefully but I doubt it. Although Serco have in the past been fined millions by UK gov for charging them for tagging prisoners who turned out to be dead so you never know.

[ali k]

It does feel like there should be penalties for consistently missing targets though!

Hopefully but I doubt it. Although Serco have in the past been fined millions by UK gov for charging them for tagging prisoners who turned out to be dead so you never know.

IIRC Private Eye looked into this and found there were no penalties for missing targets within the contract. Either that or there weren’t even any official targets they had to hit. It was one or the other.

[gme]

If track and trace is working in Scotland we might as well drop the whole fucking idea as it obviously does nothing to stop the spread of the virus.
I have always thought the idea was a waste of time in western country’s  where people just don’t follow rules.

My business is paying wages in full for all staff if they have to isolate yet have caught two people off work who just continued to go out in town, to peoples houses and basically treat it like a normal holiday. One of them had tested positive and has now been sacked.

[lagerstarfish]

If track and trace is working in Scotland we might as well drop the whole fucking idea as it obviously does nothing to stop the spread of the virus.
I have always thought the idea was a waste of time in western country’s  where people just don’t follow rules.

My business is paying wages in full for all staff if they have to isolate yet have caught two people off work who just continued to go out in town, to peoples houses and basically treat it like a normal holiday. One of them had tested positive and has now been sacked.

report them
lack of enforcement is only making things worse
https://www.reportingcrime.uk/SYPBreachOfCovid19Guidance/

[galpinos]

If it’s negative you would still be in the dark though I guess.

It could still be post viral fatigue, just not from coronavirus. Viruses are dismissed as something we get over easily, and most of the time we do, but many people get prolonged post viral symptoms.

[ali k]

IIRC Private Eye looked into this and found there were no penalties for missing targets within the contract. Either that or there weren’t even any official targets they had to hit. It was one or the other.

Just checked again and for both Serco and Sitel the targets they have to hit have never been released. And in both cases the contracts don’t have ‘service penalties’ anyway so it’s irrelevant whether they hit whatever those undisclosed targets are.

Imagine signing a contract for some work and however shit a job your contractor does you still have to pay them.

[Nigel]

If track and trace is working in Scotland we might as well drop the whole fucking idea as it obviously does nothing to stop the spread of the virus.
I have always thought the idea was a waste of time in western country’s  where people just don’t follow rules.

You've probably nailed it there gme. As I've described Scottish test and trace does work. But if people don't isolate then its just useless information. For all the money that is being sprayed at the T&T element of this, the I bit is being largely overlooked.

[tomtom]

Tweets now appearing with data/slides from CWiddy’s briefing to the Northern MP’s...

Edit: here’s a link https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1314179590412271617?s=21

Showing in 18-30’s 30% of cases linked to visits to Pubs and restaraunts, and another 10% from people working there. Total drops to 30% for older groups.

What frustrates me is that if this data isnt super new - why couldn’t we see it before? It smells like its being released now as part of an orchestrated plan to justify more lockdown (which BTW I completely agree with...). I listened to Sturgeons briefing the other day live (having my lunch when WFH) and I wish Englands leaders could treat the audience with the same level of respect and intelligence.

[sxrxg]

I think I might get one of those Bupa antibody tests to check for long Covid as I have spent the last couple of days with some unexplained symptoms (still being investigated by GP so I might get answers from bloods taken today).

I don't know when I may have had Covid, had a bit of a cough in April however nothing out of the ordinary. Last few weeks though I have felt weak on my board and like my joints are going pop and I might injure myself even on easier problems I just put this down to not having climbed much for a few weeks and not getting much volume in as not visiting climbing walls due to Covid risk and me having asthma. Been using my inhaler for a tight chest however it didn't really feel like my asthma. Anyway in work on Tuesday I got a very very painful chest and it felt like I was being crushed, rang 111 who sent me straight to urgent care for an ECG by the time I got there though the symptoms had started to ease and the ECG was clean so I got sent home and told to refer to the GP. The day after the GP referred me direct to A&E where I had 3 ECG a chest x-ray and bloods to check for a heart attack and cardiac damage. All looked ok so got sent home then that evening I had another bout where I felt like vomiting felt like I was being crushed with pain in my chest, pins and needles in hands and feet, heart pounding and looking very grey. This time an ambulance was dispatched (for the first time in my life) again by the time it arrived the symptoms had eased and the ECG was clear and observations ok. Been back for further tests today however nothing is showing up, GP suggested it is possibly panic attacks however I have never suffered from anything like this in the past and have had no additional stress that would possibly trigger.

Whatever it is going on it is the first time in my life where I was actually worried that it was very very serious, usually I won't see a doctor for anything however I had no doubt ringing 999 was the right thing to do with the way I felt. So the take away is that this might not be long Covid, if it is though I would advise everyone to be very very careful even if you are young (well mid 30's), fit and healthy as I currently do not feel in a good way.

[Oldmanmatt]

That sounds absolutely shite.

I hope you find a clear path to recovery. I’d even say, I hope it is panic attack related, because there’s a way through that.

Just incase anyone had any doubts about the severity of the disease (in the US):

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-is-now-the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s1/?fbclid=IwAR3k8g6owDRZTV2I4bY1SWlOzOqscbEXRTPZ7q_0nsuxNrFKS0mnt8Ol2Ic

[slab_happy]

and have had no additional stress that would possibly trigger.

... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.

Anyway, I hope you get a clear diagnosis (preferably of something fixable!) soon; that sounds terrifying, and not knowing what it is is the worst.

[James Malloch]

... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.

I'd agree with this completely. I'm not one for stress, ever, but what a shite year it's been.

[sxrxg]

I agree 100% that it has been a shite year. I would be surprised at the timing though for a panic attack as I am, if anything, feeling better about the whole thing compared to earlier in the pandemic when I got really low and lost motivation for life (including climbing) which is usually more important to me than working!

I am now looking at less news than earlier on and not trying to second guess what anyone else is doing as well as trying to be less judgemental of others as the guidance from government is shite. This has helped and I have managed to get into my own routine whereby daily family life feels pretty normal again. Also I am able to be back in office working that has improved my productivity no end and reduced my work stress.

Tbh though having never had panic attacks or any other diagnosed psyche problems it may well be something along those lines and I won't rule it out especially if it can stop it occuring in the future.

[TobyD]

... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.

I'd agree with this completely. I'm not one for stress, ever, but what a shite year it's been.

It has been pretty crappy, to say the least.  Bad enough that I've recently left a secure job because I realised that I mentally just couldn't cope with it any more.  I'm sure it's been far worse for many others.

[James Malloch]

... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.

I'd agree with this completely. I'm not one for stress, ever, but what a shite year it's been.

It has been pretty crappy, to say the least.  Bad enough that I've recently left a secure job because I realised that I mentally just couldn't cope with it any more.  I'm sure it's been far worse for many others.

That’s tough, but it must have been the right move. Respect for taking that decision!

[Oldmanmatt]

... apart from the pandemic we're all living through? It's really easy to underestimate because it's happening to us all, but it is a huge stressor and apparently a shit-tonne of people are having psych symptoms for the first time in their lives.

I'd agree with this completely. I'm not one for stress, ever, but what a shite year it's been.

It has been pretty crappy, to say the least.  Bad enough that I've recently left a secure job because I realised that I mentally just couldn't cope with it any more.  I'm sure it's been far worse for many others.

That’s tough, but it must have been the right move. Respect for taking that decision!

As I said, I think so too.
Plenty of potential for you, out there, Toby.
There’s really no rush to get back into the rat race, either. I managed to drag my sorry arse out of an 8 year career hiatus (n=1)...

[SA Chris]

Looks like I will be "in hiatus" shortly too, Oil industry is not doing well right now.

[teestub]

Looks like I will be "in hiatus" shortly too, Oil industry is not doing well right now.

I think it was in The Guardian I was reading that a lot of people are using this period as an opportunity to jump ship from oil to renewables. Is there much opportunity for you there?

[SA Chris]

A bit, but renewables are relatively speaking a bit simpler and safer than subsea extraction, not as much expertise required. The company I presently work for is trying to expand in that direction, but not happening quickly enough.

[tomtom]

So ONS mass testing survey says 250000 new cases last week... 1 in 240 nationally (worse in NE/NW etc..).. doubling in a week after a lull in increase last week.

Government apparently holding fire in implementing tier system until parliament votes on it - waiting to see what Rishi has in his bag..

[tomtom]

(May have not heard the 250k figure right - soz of wrong)

[James Malloch]

(May have not heard the 250k figure right - soz of wrong)

Guardian says:

There were an average of 17,200 new cases per day of Covid-19 in private households in England between 25 September and 1 October, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is up from an estimated 8,400 new cases per day for the period from 18 to 24 September.

Which equates to approx 120,000 cases last week and about 59,000 the week before that. Not seen a 250k figure but I guess it's extrapolating that weekly increase (105% rise) which gets you to just under 250,000 in the 7 days up to yesterday.

[Nutty]

224,000 last week: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest