[Duma]

The numbers are real.

What do you mean by this ?

[Offwidth]

Isn't there something weird about the way we record deaths related to covid? Ie that if you've ever had it and you die, no matter how much later, it's recorded as covid related and included in the stats. Ould that account for the difference? Can't remember where I read about it though, sorry.

The numbers that involves are tiny proportion of the total covid deaths. If anything in the UK covid deaths are underreported as many who die at home still don't get tested. Estimates are as high as 10% (from a proportion of the 10,000 unaccounted for excess deaths to date).

What I meant by the numbers being real are they are the average current daily official government reported covid deaths (which were always lower than the ONS covid excess deaths) and the average daily official government reported cases from 3 weeks back.

[Sidehaas]

Isn't there something weird about the way we record deaths related to covid? Ie that if you've ever had it and you die, no matter how much later, it's recorded as covid related and included in the stats. Ould that account for the difference? Can't remember where I read about it though, sorry.

The numbers that involves are tiny proportion of the total covid deaths. If anything in the UK covid deaths are underreported as many who die at home still don't get tested. Estimates are as high as 10% (from a proportion of the 10,000 unaccounted for excess deaths to date).

What I meant by the numbers being real are they are the average current daily official government reported covid deaths (which were always lower than the ONS covid excess deaths) and the average daily official government reported cases from 3 weeks back.

Have you got data sources to back up your assertions in those two paragraphs? I'm not not necessarily questioning them, but I don't think they are obvious any more so would interested to see the data.
Cheers

[Offwidth]

They case and death stats are from Worldometer as I said. Excess deaths have been looked at many times based on the ONS data with various estimates made on Covid causes on those untested who die at home. The ten percent was the largest I saw but I can't find the reference (it's about half of that 10,000). On the weird English data issue nearly all covid hospital deaths and most care home deaths had always been after illness with symptoms and a positive test. Peopl dying from random accidents and nothing to do with covid would e part of the normal average. Excess deaths looks at the difference from average...60,000+ of whom 50,000+ had covid links

[Wil]

Are other countries making people self administer the tests?

I've had two tests, the first was administered by a medical professional, the second I had to do myself in the car. The test isn't very pleasant and if I'd not already had one (and hence known what to expect) I'm not sure I'd have done it properly. My suspicion is that this must cause false negatives.

Extrapolating from the deaths we have seemed to have remarkably few positive results at all points during the crisis. Give that most people were only tested with symptoms until late May it's even more surprising that such a low proportion came back negative. I think our test isn't that good.

[Offwidth]

The numbers are way larger than any likely false negative effect. It could be instead of the European youth spread we have a pensioner spread but someone would be commenting on the average age of the positives and warning the militant grey's to behave. It has to be we are missing at least 2/3of the infected (and probably more) compared to other western countries.

Some more approximate ratios:

Germany 110
Netherlands 170
Sweden 200
Canada 100
S.Korea 100

[Wil]

The numbers are way larger than any likely false negative effect.

They are, it's true. But reports I've looked at suggest a 30% FN result for tests conducted by a medical professional. This is obviously going to be higher for self administered tests.

I think an interesting angle to the testing now is that we are testing people with no symptoms. On the face of it this looks good to Joe Public, but if the test isn't actually all that accurate, or incidence of infection in the population is low, then testing isn't necessarily as useful as it might appear.

[Paul B]

I was reading an article yesterday (based upon independent SAGE) saying that schools reopening is thought to increase the R by ~0.3.

The current R is somewhere between 0.8-1.0 (I believe). So that's 1.10-1.30 unless some action is taken to get the current R further under control.

Is it just me that feels like we're steaming towards another more stringent lockdown? The Goverment seems to be pretty late (I'm being generous) on acting on scientific advice and this seems like one more thing where SCIENCE will come second.

Sources:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/28/reopening-english-schools-on-monday-could-lead-to-new-surge
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-education/uk-pm-says-schools-must-open-in-september-idUSKCN2550CY

[SA Chris]

Even before the local lockdown, Sturgeon was saying concessions would need to be made wrt closing pubs etc to allow schools to reopen.

We'll know by the end of next week, ours go back this week. Be a test case for the rest of the UK.

[tomtom]

It’s really hard with the kids impacts. Things we know (seem to be consensus) are that kids can have the virus - and a significant percentage can get it. Mortality/serious illness in kids is very low.

But the big questions are how good are kids at transmitting it (a) between each other and (b) to adults.

Afaik there’s only one study looking at this (Australian case tracking one) where a single child with CV19 had numerous school contacts but led to no further cases. But I worry that N=1 in this case...

Test test test. I know they’ve ruled out testing all schools - but why not do a percentage (even 1% of schools) and use this to study what may happen?

Gosh - that’s a strategy right there. Listening #10?

[SA Chris]

Well we are going to exclude grandparents and vulnerable relatives from contact with the kids for a couple of weeks after schools go back, we will be guinea pigs, and have to prepare.

[Sidehaas]

To Offwidth: I still don't get your logic when compared to other countries. I can accept we are missing lots of infections but I'd expect the number missed by others to be greater, not fewer. Something doesn't add up.

To TomTom: having done two tests myself, I think a big spanner in the works of school testing would be just how nasty the current test is. I found the throat swabs made me gag violently and the nose swabs to be quite painful. I would not consent to my 3 year old being tested (and there would be zero chance of success anyway); I doubt that will change much by the time he is in reception class. I doubt a test could be undertaken fully to procedure on most under 10s. So I think a pre requisite to school testing is either (1) a focus only on older kids who understand the importance and can withstand the discomfort (which excludes most primary school kids) or (2) a completely new, less invasive test.

[tomtom]

@sidehaas - had two myself.. tbh I giggled the whole way through the last one (it tickled!) “ey - we’ve a giggler here” the Scouser doing the swabbing shouted to his mates/co-workers :D

I though it was alright But not a pleasant experience. Certainly won’t put me off getting another one if needed.

We’ve a 4yo and I think it would be hard but not impossible. I’d like to think it gets easier as they get older (ha! I bet...)

Anyway - guess we’ll see won’t we!

[chris j]

It’s really hard with the kids impacts. Things we know (seem to be consensus) are that kids can have the virus - and a significant percentage can get it. Mortality/serious illness in kids is very low.

But the big questions are how good are kids at transmitting it (a) between each other and (b) to adults.

Anecdotally Sweden kept their schools completely open through the first wave without schools becoming epicentres of infection in the surrounding community and with a lower proportion of mortality in the pupils than would be expected from the annual flu.

I recall the Iceland population-wide testing concluded there wasn't a single confirmable case where a child had brought the virus from school into the household.

Where schools have reopened across Europe it seems the resurgence in cases is from 20 year olds socialising, not in schools so my feeling would say open the schools and close the bars. If we need further financial support for the pub industry then whatever it costs it it will be a small price compared to the long term damage inflicted by school closure.

[duncan]

I self-administered the test as a research guinea pig. Same experience as tomtom: not pleasant but I'd do it again. I could probably persuade my 10 year old to go through with the testing but wouldn't fancy my chances if he was 6. I had to post my results to a testing centre and the sample or results were lost which didn't increase my confidence in the system.

[SA Chris]

Sure I'm thumping a familiar tub, but pubs should never have opened. When in contact with others everyone needs to be cautious and sensible about exposure, and in a pub with loads of alcohol it's never going to happen, when after 6 pints you have your "youremybestmatemate" in a headlock hug. Yet gyms and swimming pools remained closed.

This should probably be in the "balls to" thread, but pretty damning of the behavior of Aberdeen footballers, whose formal apology reads like it was written by Domininc C.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53701572

[petejh]

Seems the world has now moved into a more delicate balancing act than a couple of months ago, between mitigating economic damage versus increasing virus prevalence. I came home on a ferry from Santander last week with over 800 people on board all mingling in the restaurants and bars, all wearing face masks but still.. It's become a question of what's justifiable. Where's the correct balance between damaging, by x amount, economies and the education of the young, to prevent x-number of virus deaths and per head increase in virus-related ill health. Constant adjustment and managing required. Was it justifiable to go on holiday and risk greater spread than had I stayed at home. Hard to answer, I had a great time and will have great memories. And I'd hate to think of those transport links disappearing through no-one travelling. Another side of the coin of large companies like Virgin , even BA, being at risk of going under is the creative destruction that would result from other companies filling the opportunity in the market that would result in a couple of years time. Little comfort if you're one of the redundant though.

[gme]

Sure I'm thumping a familiar tub, but pubs should never have opened. When in contact with others everyone needs to be cautious and sensible about exposure, and in a pub with loads of alcohol it's never going to happen, when after 6 pints you have your "youremybestmatemate" in a headlock hug. Yet gyms and swimming pools remained closed.

This should probably be in the "balls to" thread, but pretty damning of the behavior of Aberdeen footballers, whose formal apology reads like it was written by Domininc C.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53701572

My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open, open the gyms, send all the kids back to school and stop people meeting in houses.

Eliminates something there appears to be an issue with that has no positive effect on the economy and allows everything that helps the economy to get on with it. Reduces the r number by the .3 someone suggests we need to open the schools.

[SA Chris]

But is almost impossible to implement.

[Nutty]

My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open, open the gyms, send all the kids back to school and stop people meeting in houses.

Eliminates something there appears to be an issue with that has no positive effect on the economy and allows everything that helps the economy to get on with it. Reduces the r number by the .3 someone suggests we need to open the schools.

Do you think there would be compliance with that? I think a lot of people would think that it's bollocks that you can meet another household indoors in a pub with a load of other people but not meet another household in their house, and if people think it's bollocks then they're unlikely to go along with it post-Cummings and it's much harder to enforce than shutting the pubs.

There's still economic activity related to people visiting other people whether that's spending on fuel, visiting service stations, buying bottles of wine, a bunch of flowers, doing a Sunday roast or buying an extra pack of biscuits. Granted it may not be of the same scale and isn't in the same sector.

[spidermonkey09]

My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open, open the gyms, send all the kids back to school and stop people meeting in houses.

Eliminates something there appears to be an issue with  that has no positive effect on the economy and allows everything that helps the economy to get on with it. Reduces the r number by the .3 someone suggests we need to open the schools.

I try and avoid this topic currently, but I am amazed you think this is feasible. Not saying it won't happen, but I don't really buy the idea that transmission is happening wholesale in peoples living rooms and not in a crowded pub! It defies all logic.

I would close whatever is needed to get schools open in September, but god only knows how its going to work.

[spidermonkey09]

Granted it may not be of the same scale and isn't in the same sector.

Cynically, that economic activity doesn't benefit Tory donors either...

[galpinos]

To TomTom: having done two tests myself, I think a big spanner in the works of school testing would be just how nasty the current test is. I found the throat swabs made me gag violently and the nose swabs to be quite painful.

I, my wife and my 7yo were tested via "self test". We didn't test the 4yo. Wife is a doctor, 7yo spiked a temp hence testing for all of us. Both myself and my wife had persistent nasal pain/discomfort for the rest of the day. We both nearly vomited during the throat swab. 7yo found it very distressing (administered by my wife) and was in tears for a long time after.

From anecdotal (recorded but not proper research), some self administered tests gave negative results when in house, administered by a professional, testing returned positive. Lots of discussion about nasal swabs not getting high enough, it needs to make your eye water, feel like it's pushing on your eye. It's pretty horrible as your have to keep it up there and rotate it. Throat swabs should cause a gag reflex which means it's hard to keep the swab in place for long enough. My wife did not enjoy doing it to the 7yo.

[gme]

My opinion is very different. Keep all the pubs etc open, open the gyms, send all the kids back to school and stop people meeting in houses.

Eliminates something there appears to be an issue with  that has no positive effect on the economy and allows everything that helps the economy to get on with it. Reduces the r number by the .3 someone suggests we need to open the schools.

I try and avoid this topic currently, but I am amazed you think this is feasible. Not saying it won't happen, but I don't really buy the idea that transmission is happening wholesale in peoples living rooms and not in a crowded pub! It defies all logic.

I would close whatever is needed to get schools open in September, but god only knows how its going to work.

Presently sat in my garden with holiday let next door that has 16 people from four family’s in it each from different parts of the country. Zero social distancing happening.

Stopped my youngest going to a house party last week in Newcastle where there were 50+ people.

All my local pubs very organised and all socially distancing. 

[gme]

I was also a guilty party on Saturday when we had a friend of my oldest staying from London, my youngest son girlfriend and two separate sets of climbing friends how dropped in last minute to camp in the garden on there way to Scotland. 5 different family’s 11 people.

All happened by accident but luckily the weather was good so we stayed outside.
I was in a beer garden on fri with less people.