This is why I'm confused about the gov strategy - if that's the strategy, it's a shit one. Much better to lockdown way harder, whatever estimates you make for the numbers. If it's not the strategy, then what is? Unfortunately nothing the gov says on this seems to shed any light. I don't really get why the media aren't pushing harder on the "isn't your strategy kind of muddled bollocks?" question.
Quote from: Ru on April 24, 2020, 12:02:20 pmQuote from: petejh on April 24, 2020, 11:53:47 amFair enough, I'll re-phrase that to: I'll believe that it was worth the public hysteria caused by all the implications by the media that supplies of PPE are responsible for excess mortality among healthcare workers, when we see the evidence of excess mortality among various sectors plus the general population by age group.I imagine most hospital workers aren't too keen to just wait and see how many of them die compared to the general population before they kick up a fuss about PPE.Exactly. Jesus fucking Christ, get some empathy.
Quote from: petejh on April 24, 2020, 11:53:47 amFair enough, I'll re-phrase that to: I'll believe that it was worth the public hysteria caused by all the implications by the media that supplies of PPE are responsible for excess mortality among healthcare workers, when we see the evidence of excess mortality among various sectors plus the general population by age group.I imagine most hospital workers aren't too keen to just wait and see how many of them die compared to the general population before they kick up a fuss about PPE.
Fair enough, I'll re-phrase that to: I'll believe that it was worth the public hysteria caused by all the implications by the media that supplies of PPE are responsible for excess mortality among healthcare workers, when we see the evidence of excess mortality among various sectors plus the general population by age group.
There isn't clear evidence that 1. there is excess mortality in healthcare compared to other sectors. 2. Lack of PPE has led to deaths of healthcare workers. 3. There has actually been large-scale instances of PPE actually running out and staff in high risk areas working unprotected
If evidence emerges I'll change my mind....there's making concerns public, and there's media whipping up moral panic - they're good at that.
• A pandemic would play out in up to “three waves”, with each wave expected to last 15 weeks … “with the peak weeks occurring at weeks 6 and 7 in each wave”.• 50% of the population would be infected and experience symptoms of pandemic influenza during the one or more waves. The actual number of people infected would be higher than this, as there would be a number of asymptomatic cases.• A pandemic of moderate virulence could lead to 65,600 deaths.• The potential cost to the UK could be £2.35tn.• Even after the end of the pandemic, it is likely that it would take months or even years for health and social care services to recover.• There would be significant public outrage over any perceived poor handling of the government’s preparations and response to the emergency.
Quote from: petejh on April 24, 2020, 03:12:55 pmThere isn't clear evidence that 1. there is excess mortality in healthcare compared to other sectors. 2. Lack of PPE has led to deaths of healthcare workers. 3. There has actually been large-scale instances of PPE actually running out and staff in high risk areas working unprotectedOf course there isn’t. That will only come out in the inevitable public enquiry, or at the very least once the data is complete and available - potentially years down the line.QuoteIf evidence emerges I'll change my mind....there's making concerns public, and there's media whipping up moral panic - they're good at that.So in the absence of the above data your default position is to assume that the media (and by extension the individuals, organisations and unions sounding the alarm bells) are “whipping up moral panic”. Fuck me.
I wish people could consider things without putting words in other people's mouths. My default position is that the truth of what actual impact the PPE situation had on outcomes probably lies somewhere between the picture portrayed in the media and by staff; and the picture portrayed by the government.
I think it is good that you post questioning received ideas Pete. We should be interrogating our assumptions, no question. So I had a think about the stats.1,227,375 full time equivalent healthcare workers in NHS 2018, from ONS statsCovid19 deaths In NHS currently = 119=0.0097%Going off the ONS data, updated 10 April, deaths in hospital aged under 65 = 13% of total65 seems a reasonable proxy for working age.So approximating numbers, 13% of 20K current hospital deaths = 260 or so under 65
BAME individuals account for 63 per (of all staff), 64 per cent (of nursing staff) and 95 per cent of (medical staff) deaths in the same staff groups
It also makes me think the huge amount of noise focused around PPE might be more emotional than rational and perhaps doesn't correlate with the spectrum of risks encountered by different parts of the population.
NHS figure on more or less is quoted as 1,470,000 staff of working age (this is 98% of the total staff of 1.5 million)So that leaves 106. It gives 94 NHS staff, 10 social care, 2 dental.So 94 NHS staff / 1,470,000 = 0.006%
The problem with that calculation is the proportion who died who work in places with a high risk of covid exposure is massively more than your number as.by far the majority of NHS staff don't work in those situations. It's so obbious I suspect you of trolling. I hope any NHS staff reading that have a forgiving nature.
''the absence of certain workforce groups among those who have died, while welcome, is also notable. Anaesthetists, intensive care doctors and by association nurses and physiotherapists who work in similar settings are believed to be among the highest risk groups of all healthcare workers. It is therefore notable that all of these groups are completely absent from the data set.''
''However, the NHS is estimated to employ approximately 1.2-1.5 million staff, including more than 120,000 doctors, approximately 300,000 nurses and a similar number of healthcare support workers. A modest estimate of the patient-facing NHS workforce might be 600,000-800,000,''
Not a fair comparison. You should only be counting front line NHS staff that are exposed to covid patients. They're who the concern re: PPE is about. The vast majority of the staff you are including will never go near a covid patient, so of course the risk to them is low or close to that of the general population. As an example, less than a 1/3 of NHS staff are doctors and nurses. As far as I am aware the hospitals are also split into "dirty" (covid) and "clean" (non covid) wards to prevent spread so not even all the clinical staff have the same exposure.