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Coronavirus Covid-19 (Read 71299 times)

Will Hunt

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#1425 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 03, 2020, 10:45:57 pm
Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some  inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...
...

So only a little more lax than here but with calmer reporting?


My wife has been out walking the kids each day this week and has reported significantly more traffic about. It seems people are getting bored of the lockdown. Or at least have a completely different idea of what the word "essential" means. Some of my work colleagues have been into work to collect a monitor to make it more easy to work at home. Journeys of 10 miles +, sometimes on the M62 there. Hardly essential is it?

We can't say that we're saints on here though, can we? The "how to build a woodie" thread has seen plenty of people out buying wood for instance...  :whistle: :jab: :ang:  (Sorry if that's you. I have no idea whether the local builder's merchants is right next to the supermarket and you were there anyway).
Not me, though. I haven't left home for a week other than to go to Aldi for an hour - which was the scariest time of the whole situation so far. I kept feeling the urge to say "blessed be the fruit" to everyone.

dunnyg

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#1426 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 03, 2020, 10:52:53 pm
I thought you had been out for walks will?

BrutusTheBear

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#1427 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 03, 2020, 10:53:58 pm
I think our friends new neighbours may get some ‘dirty post’  :shit:...
Seriously though.. I am unlikely to come across grockles because we’re not leaving home at all, save to go for walks straight from home..  Viruses can’t move by themselves, it’s not hard to grasp, surely.  So either some people really aren’t so sharp or they’re just being selfish cvnts.  Given that our anecdotal sample of ‘self isolating’ Londoners went ‘surfing’ this afternoon in the shittest conditions imaginable, I’m suggesting it’s the latter.

Will Hunt

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#1428 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 03, 2020, 10:55:13 pm
I thought you had been out for walks will?

Not this week.

Oldmanmatt

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#1429 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 03, 2020, 11:12:55 pm
Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some  inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...
...

So only a little more lax than here but with calmer reporting?


My wife has been out walking the kids each day this week and has reported significantly more traffic about. It seems people are getting bored of the lockdown. Or at least have a completely different idea of what the word "essential" means. Some of my work colleagues have been into work to collect a monitor to make it more easy to work at home. Journeys of 10 miles +, sometimes on the M62 there. Hardly essential is it?

We can't say that we're saints on here though, can we? The "how to build a woodie" thread has seen plenty of people out buying wood for instance...  :whistle: :jab: :ang:  (Sorry if that's you. I have no idea whether the local builder's merchants is right next to the supermarket and you were there anyway).
Not me, though. I haven't left home for a week other than to go to Aldi for an hour - which was the scariest time of the whole situation so far. I kept feeling the urge to say "blessed be the fruit" to everyone.

My supermarket trip was fucking surreal.

That wasn’t the phrase that occurred (but spot on), I was truly expecting cans of Soylent Green...

Under His eye.

Oldmanmatt

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#1430 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 03, 2020, 11:14:54 pm
I think our friends new neighbours may get some ‘dirty post’  :shit:...
Seriously though.. I am unlikely to come across grockles because we’re not leaving home at all, save to go for walks straight from home..  Viruses can’t move by themselves, it’s not hard to grasp, surely.  So either some people really aren’t so sharp or they’re just being selfish cvnts.  Given that our anecdotal sample of ‘self isolating’ Londoners went ‘surfing’ this afternoon in the shittest conditions imaginable, I’m suggesting it’s the latter.

Eggs.

Eggs is good for what ails ye.


Thrown properly.

gme

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#1431 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 03, 2020, 11:28:49 pm
Since some of you seem to be preoccupied with the situation in the Netherlands, here’s some  inside details from the country thats acting almost as crazy as Sweden...

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) is basically in charge and tells the government what to do. It’s not politicians or the media dictating rules and regulations, it’s epidemiologists.

Contrarily to what some might think what is in place is a pretty effective yet not restrictive voluntary lockdown. Basically all social contact has come to a standstill. Gatherings of more than 3 people are not allowed. Walking, surfing, cycling, running, walking the dog is allowed. Just keep your distance. No need to get upset over people doing stuff outside where it is not possible to infect others! Big parking lots at very popular outdoor venues have closed or will close during the weekend. Schools have been closed for 3 weeks now, bit kids are still allowed to play together outside. Work and travel is still not restricted, but people are asked to stay home, which has a huge effect.

The funny thing is, in normal live (the live not lived on social media and internet fora) hardly anybody is panicking, even newspapers and television are keeping it sane.  And yes, deaths and IC admissions are still on the rise, but the growth is slowing down, and will probably stabilize
in a few days. RIVM has changed it’s approach since the start of the outbreak, but that's hardly surprising as they will have to act to a known unknown, but do not want to disrupt normal live excessively. It seems they/the government are doing an OK job (disclaimer: I’ve worked @RIVM in the past, but on a different subject).

Today, we saw official data on weekly mortality in 2020 which was compared to weekly mortality in the previous years. It shows the real mortality caused by COVID-19 to be a lot bigger than hospital data (duh...). It also shows COVID-19 mortality to be bigger than mortality caused by the last serious outbreak of the flu. Next weeks data will be even higher: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Concerning IC capacity: today’s 1324 IC beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients. Up by 51. IC Capacity has gone up to 2100 beds (from 1200), and will rise to 2400 in a couple of days. No panic yet.

Thanks for reiterating exactly what I am being told from my partners over there. It seems that there is a much more calm and less reactionary policy in place that appears to be keeping you on at least a similar path to here. Time will tell if it works, as it will our policy.

I suspect both countries will end up in pretty similar places but with the Netherlands not having fucked it’s economy over quite as well as we have.

Prepare to be told your wrong and your all going to die. Or failing that get very few responses to your post.

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#1432 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 12:06:41 am
Quote from: gme link=topic=30489.msg603699#

Scientists have warned repeatedly that strict lockdowns make it harder to build up immunity and create the risk of a new spike in cases when people are let out again.

You are right, that is what it is meant to do. No herd immunity if no new infection with in the herd.

Lift the lockdown and the epidemic resumes. So there has to be another solution, otherwise we will have to live like a whack-a-mole game- ducking back into our holes as the virus roars back every time restrictions are eased. Until a virus is available.

So then herd immunity  looks attractive. Don’t outrun the unrunnable, just manage its pace. Maybe the Dutch are much shrewder than UK and can make it work..

It’s very risky though, potentially with tragic consequences. Is there any other option? Of course there is. WHO have been shouting from the rooftops for those willing to listen.

You should read this Gav
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

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#1433 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 12:34:31 am
I've been out each day for work this week and noticed that the traffic has slightly increased Weds & Thurs, and massively increased today, as Will also reports. I suspect the majority are a bit fed up of the shutdown now and tossing it off. Our Dear Leader made a worried plea on radio/TV for people to stay at home this weekend as the weather warms up. The death toll seems to be well on track with Spain/Italy, currently without the harsh lockdowns those countries have. I hope He announces stricter measures at the beginning of next week.
Respect to all those on the front line

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#1434 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 08:38:31 am
Google have released a mobility report using anonymised data from google maps users to look at how busy certain sectors are compared to baseline. They advise against comparing the figures between countries, but I think within european countries you can probably make a fairly sensible comparison to see how strict the current lockdown situation is in a given country. To pick a couple of relevant countries from this thread:

Sector, UK, Netherlands, Italy

Retail and Recreation, -85%, -65%, -94%
Grocery and Pharmacy, -46%, -29%, -85%
Parks, -52%, -30%, -90%
Transit Stations, -75%, -68%, -87%
Workplace, -55%, -35%, -63%
Residential, +15%, +11%, +24%

Perhaps unsurprising, but it looks to me like the UK is fairly in the middle in terms of lockdown severity.

Stu Littlefair

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#1435 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 08:48:13 am
Remus beat me to it!

Trips For:

Retail & Recreation: down 85% (UK), 65% (NL), 24% (Sweden)
Grocery: down 45% (UK), 30% (NL), 10% (Sweden)
Parks: down 52% (UK), 30% (UK), UP 43% (Sweden)
Work: down 55% (UK), 35% (NL), 18% (Sweden)

The Dutch numbers are pretty reasonable, and it’s interesting to note that they dropped a week before ours did, which will help tremendously. Striking that movements to places of work are down 35%, despite businesses not being forced to close.

By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Sweden on the other hand... Perhaps their epidemiologists think the low population density will keep the virus under control there? It might well do.

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#1436 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 09:11:47 am

Sweden on the other hand... Perhaps their epidemiologists think the low population density will keep the virus under control there? It might well do.

Hard to imagine that, unless you are referring to geographically distant communities with no travel between them. Otherwise surely lower population density = lower rate of transmission? Wouldn’t the  area under the curve ultimately be the same?

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#1437 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 09:15:26 am
It will, but that’s true everywhere since there’s no vaccine, and we suspect no natural immunity. All the efforts to date are about slowing the rate of infection, to stop health services being overwhelmed and buy more time for a vaccine.

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#1438 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 09:55:58 am
And to evaluate which retrovirals work - which will be 6-9 months ahead of vaccines.

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#1439 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 10:07:41 am
I’m pretty sure I’ve got it (mildly.). Colleague tested positive and 3/4 of people in my house unwell. The 7 year old is happily unaffected. Symptoms have been dry cough, chest pains and breathless. No fever, although I normally run at 35.6 and got up to 37.   The illness overlapped with having shingles so it was difficult to be specific about tiredness, headaches etc.

I might not change my behaviour in regards to social distancing, but I’ll certainly feel more confident at work - patient facing NHS. In a lot of ways it’s a massive relief to be pretty certain I’ve had it.

Did you get tested to confirm?

Oldmanmatt

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#1440 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 10:11:32 am
It will, but that’s true everywhere since there’s no vaccine, and we suspect no natural immunity. All the efforts to date are about slowing the rate of infection, to stop health services being overwhelmed and buy more time for a vaccine.

As I mentioned already, I think restrictions will be eased (end of April?) until load threatens capacity again, and so on.
I would think vulnerable groups will want to keep up their own isolation until tested/vacinated/able to be treated.


Exit strategy:

Actually, I reckon, the first  Lockdown, is to buy time to increase Care capacity. Let the deaths drop to a “tolerable” level. 
Then it will be eased and only brought back when the new capacity seems likely to be breached.

I suspect this is why testing is not the priority that “we” think it should be. It’s ultimately not worth it.
Others have already pointed out the issues with passport to work schemes. Likely so fullbof holes as to be pointless and only a couple of people slipping through and starting off the infection cycle again is enough.

We’re in this for the long haul and the lockdown is way more cynical than “we” think and almost certainly “they” think it the least worst option.”

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#1441 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 10:33:09 am
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?

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#1442 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 10:51:49 am
3rd article from Tomas Pueyo, about developments in US:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9

The article is quite broad ranging in order to come to a final conclusion.

For those interested in the debate between social distancing and economic impact, I recommend reading it as it considers the issue at some length.

Oldmanmatt

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#1443 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 10:57:09 am
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?

I have, rightly or wrongly, always felt that certain Northern European nations are, simply, better behaved than we tend to be. It’s usually felt that way when I’ve been in those places and it seemed that they regarded us as somewhat juvenile.

Maybe we need an order.

Our military, for instance, was, often, absolutely outrageously behaved, until orders were given; when they suddenly snapped into a rather efficient, professional and determined bunch.

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#1444 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 01:00:32 pm
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?



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#1445 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 03:43:11 pm
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?
Oh they do. They like a drink as much as the brits.

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#1446 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 03:45:27 pm
By contrast, our numbers only really dropped when Boris closed the pubs. Perhaps the Dutch are just better at following advice than us, without being forced to?

Or, perhaps the Dutch don't have social lives that revolve around binge drinking?




The Dutch show me loads of similar videos of there own idiots abroad. They have there own versions of Benidorm.

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#1447 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 07:09:52 pm
More grim news on the deaths totals today...

Looks like we’re well in the same zone as Spain and Italy...

Oldmanmatt

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#1448 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 07:42:44 pm
More grim news on the deaths totals today...

Looks like we’re well in the same zone as Spain and Italy...

The FT are calling it “worse” than Italy.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The Guardian say it’s under reported. One day at the end of March the reported deaths were 159, revised to over 460 two days later. Takes upto 3 days to gather all the data apparently.

Oops. Here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 07:59:00 pm by Oldmanmatt »

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#1449 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
April 04, 2020, 08:49:43 pm
Yeah a day deaths are when the tally of the paperwork rather than those who died in the last 24 hours. Which means there’s a 2-3 day potential Lag before the peak is reported... over all it will balance out..

New York’s curve looks fucking scary. Apparently more deaths in West Midlands than London today...

You can do some horrible rough maths. If 50% of ICU CV patients die and someone is in ICU for 10 days.. 8000 ICU beds - means 400 deaths a day from ICU. Of course if the length of stay before death is <10 days then those deaths a day can go up.

 

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