- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections
The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.
Cancelled my winter climbing trip yesterday - Scotland has even less ICU beds than England. Will be closing the company doors on Friday. If they don't close the schools I'll be pulling my son out anyway. Time to do what you can.Quote- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infectionsThe fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.
since I'm on leave it makes sense to try and tackle some jobs to prepare for an extended period of staying in.
I've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!
Quote from: Liamhutch89 on March 18, 2020, 12:58:26 pmI've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!Do ypu think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.
Quote from: Johnny Brown on March 18, 2020, 11:49:41 amThe fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.I originally got ~1600, 85 and 2, but then I modified my model. Maybe it was better the first time. In any case, I can't get anywhere near as low as 400 for the first instance
Quote from: gme on March 18, 2020, 01:14:17 pmQuote from: Liamhutch89 on March 18, 2020, 12:58:26 pmI've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!Do ypu think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.I fear there might be a quarantine and shops might close
Do you think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.
Quote from: Will Hunt on March 18, 2020, 12:48:49 pmsince I'm on leave it makes sense to try and tackle some jobs to prepare for an extended period of staying in.It's quite ironic this, everyone rushing out and about to get as many things ready for staying in. I'm not saying I've been much better though.
Can someone critique my maths?There' an infographic doing the rounds on FB, advocating social distancing and saying- If 1 person infects 2.5 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 406 infections- If 1 person infects 1.25 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 15 infections- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infectionsBut my rough numbers, when assuming it takes 15 days to become "uninfected and uninfectious" come out as more like 1600, 65 and 0 (it's fudged because doing things in blocks of 5 days doesn't work nicely). Am I wrong or are they?