[Johnny Brown]

Cancelled my winter climbing trip yesterday - Scotland has even less ICU beds than England. Will be closing the company doors on Friday. If they don't close the schools I'll be pulling my son out anyway. Time to do what you can.

- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections

The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.

[abarro81]

EDIT: removed while I work this out

[abarro81]

The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.

I originally got ~1600, 85 and 2, but then I modified my model. Maybe it was better the first time. In any case, I can't get anywhere near as low as 400 for the first instance

[tomtom]

Cancelled my winter climbing trip yesterday - Scotland has even less ICU beds than England. Will be closing the company doors on Friday. If they don't close the schools I'll be pulling my son out anyway. Time to do what you can.

- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections

The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.

Scotland is far worse hit in cases per population than England....

[Offwidth]

Lynn went shopping for a 90 year old diabetic this morning (close friend of a close friend) and had to be firm about refusing being invited in for a cup of tea. She is now off to sort out a serious medical issue with her dad in yorkshire (mid 80s, following a series of strokes being medically cared for at home...  immobile, peg fed, pneumonic problems)... working with district nurses to try to keep him out of hospital if possible. My parents, both in their 80s, both struggling with health issues,  failed yesterday when trying to online shop for the first time ever and have been rescued by my brother going to the supermarket. They are in a sense lucky as people are looking out for them. This is going to be horrible for old folk trying to follow the rules if they don't have any help or personal human contact. In between fingerboard training sessions why not 'adopt' a lonely old person if you can.

https://covidmutualaid.org/resources/

[Will Hunt]

Plenty of old folk out in Bingley today. I've been to the shops to satisfy an urge to buy a few tins of rank looking soup. Our chest freezer is topped out - fuck knows what's under the first layer but I hope it's edible.
Found bog roll in the 4th shop we visited and won a fight to the death for it with an octogenarian by bludgeoning her repeatedly with a 4 pack of 3 ply.
Sprog is still in nursery and I suppose will be until they close (their next day in would be next Tuesday and I don't think this will happen).
While out at the shops we passed a newly opened cafe and it wasn't particularly busy so popped in for coffee and cake. Just to put some money in their till before everything shuts down. A self employed bloke in there talking to the lady at the counter clearly very worried. They had a hug before he left.
Also went and got my hair cut. They've had lots of cancellations. The lady who cut my hair told me that baby formula has disappeared from the shelves because, in the absence of milk, some daft cunts have bought it instead. Not sure if I believe that.
Think I'm going to nip out and get some beading later to finish some repairs to the back door.

Which all seems very careless compared to the posts above. But life does need to go on to some extent and since I'm on leave it makes sense to try and tackle some jobs to prepare for an extended period of staying in. The old folk in the shops might seem daft but they do need to eat and they probably won't feel able to call on their neighbours for help until the problem is much more apparent.

[User deactivated.]

I've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!

[36chambers]

since I'm on leave it makes sense to try and tackle some jobs to prepare for an extended period of staying in.

It's quite ironic this, everyone rushing out and about to get as many things ready for staying in.

I'm not saying I've been much better though.

[gme]

At least some are taking it seriously. Sorry for the sun link.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11192542/boozy-brits-benidorm-ignore-coronavirus-warnings-tell-quarantine-cops-its-just-flu/

[gme]

I've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!

Do ypu think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.

[User deactivated.]

I've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!

Do ypu think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.

I fear there might be a quarantine and shops might close

[Ru]

I've split off the finance parts of the thread as best I can.

[JamieG]

The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.

I originally got ~1600, 85 and 2, but then I modified my model. Maybe it was better the first time. In any case, I can't get anywhere near as low as 400 for the first instance

Yeah I'm getting similar numbers to you.

2.5 = 1838
1.25 = 129
0.625 = 18

using this code



infection_rate = 0.625;

infected_at_each_stage = 1;
cumulative_at_each_stage = 1;

for i = 1:6
   
    infected_at_each_stage(i+1) = cumulative_at_each_stage(i).*infection_rate;
    cumulative_at_each_stage(i+1) = sum(infected_at_each_stage);
   
end

final_infected = floor(cumulative_at_each_stage(end))

[JamieG]

Actually i've worked out their numbers

If you change the line  infected_at_each_stage(i+1) = cumulative_at_each_stage(i).*infection_rate;

to infected_at_each_stage(i+1) = infected_at_each_stage(i).*infection_rate;

i.e. the newly infected go and infected new people but the remove themselves from the system you get

2.5 = 406
1.25 = 15
0.625 = 2

[abarro81]

Ah gottacha. Their number seems a weird way to present it.

[tommytwotone]

Well literally one day after the govt revised its guidance, and yesterday Tone Jnr mk.2 had a slight temperature spike at nursery so that's us in self-isolation for 2 weeks then.

Obviously apart from a runny nose there's sod all wrong with him but I guess we have to follow the guidance.

[SA Chris]

Schools in Scotland to close Friday.

[BrutusTheBear]

Ditto for Welsh schools...  what’s going on Engerrrrland?

[gme]

I've scheduled this weekend for building a home woodie. I'm beginning to worry that might be too late to buy materials!

Do ypu think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.

I fear there might be a quarantine and shops might close

It will be a few weeks off before that happens, if it does.

[SA Chris]

Do you think there might have been a run on 19mm ply.

I think double and single ply might be more of a concern.

[abarro81]

The fact that you're getting 0 from this would seem to be your first problem.

I originally got ~1600, 85 and 2, but then I modified my model. Maybe it was better the first time. In any case, I can't get anywhere near as low as 400 for the first instance

In a productive afternoon of work at home, I realised my error - I was deducting total cases 15 days later, not new cases only. Now get 1705, 100 and 10...

[Will Hunt]

since I'm on leave it makes sense to try and tackle some jobs to prepare for an extended period of staying in.

It's quite ironic this, everyone rushing out and about to get as many things ready for staying in.

I'm not saying I've been much better though.

Yes. But. Inevitably some prep and maintenance of food stocks is necessary. The numbers of The Infected is only going to rise, exponentially. So until the peak, at any moment in time, if you have to go out and do something where you might meet other people, the time of lowest risk is now (obviously it might be better to delay a few hours in order to visit the shops at a quieter hour).

[petejh]

Can someone critique my maths?

There' an infographic doing the rounds on FB, advocating social distancing and  saying
- If 1 person infects 2.5 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 406 infections
- If 1 person infects 1.25 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 15 infections
- If 1 person infects .625 others every 5 days, then after 30 days you have 2.5 infections

But my rough numbers, when assuming it takes 15 days to become "uninfected and uninfectious" come out as more like 1600, 65 and 0 (it's fudged because doing things in blocks of 5 days doesn't work nicely). Am I wrong or are they?

Saw that and just posted on CD's page.

Isn't it to the power of 6?
If the period is every 5 days, and total is after 30 days, then:
there are 6 of those 5-day periods in 30 days.
So after 30 days,
@ infection rate of 2.5 to power of 6 = 244 people infected
@ infection rate 1.5 to power of 6 = 11 people
@ infection .625 to power of 6 = .006 of a person (doylo, the only one remaining with residual infection)


That's disregarding 'becoming uninfected' which is important in maths terms but unimportant in terms of the message being given.
Caveat I'm a dumbass not a phd

[abarro81]

You have to include the original infections i.e. total infections after 5 days = 1 (starting person) + 2.5 (new infections) = 3.5, not the 2.5 that you've assumed. Then 3.5*2.5+3.5 etc... This makes a huge difference after a few cycles.

Interestingly - but obvious really if you think about exponential curves - deducting cases that have expired after 2 weeks makes less difference:
With deductions:1705, 100, 10
Without: 1838, 129,18

[petejh]

Gotchya, yeah that makes sense.Your figures look right then! Isn't working out exponential infections fun!