[eastside]

That's an anecdote, not data...

The big confounding factor is

What percent of active cases are people under 50? If 90% of active cases are under 50 and they make 50% of ICU then it's still much better to be under 50.

In the Netherlands it's probably because younger people have been infected more often. In Italy, it's probably because the younger people have been given preferential treatment when triaging.

But yes it's still scary, being young and healthy does NOT mean you avoid the risk of death or serious illness from this disease.

[TobyD]

Work-wise, just been speaking to clients about upcoming projects and as far as some of them are concerned we're going ahead with work as planned, starting next week. (I'll believe it when we're actually doing it). We have maintenance projects on large petro-chemical sites and they can't just stop maintenance on those types of sites. Other clients with less pressing jobs have postponed some work.

Attitude among colleagues is very complacent, most seem to think work will go ahead regardless and there won't be that much to worry about from the virus. I think they're in for a surprise when there are hotels full of dying (no not a typical weekend in Llandudno), but hope I'm wrong.

Driving into the office mid-morning I was surprised by how many people are making 'essential' journeys    Based on this first day, voluntary lock-down will not be effective.

I've seen pretty much the same thing Pete. At work in the peak yesterday people in villages etc just carrying on as normal. Roads in Sheffield seem almost normally busy. Several people at work being extremely complacent, which is pretty worrying as it's the NHS! I wonder how many people have to die before some believe it. It's pretty sobering that 20000 is being mentioned as a good outcome.

[TobyD]

There’s a scary interview on sky news website with an Italian doctor suggesting pretty much the same.

And that they triage people based on whether they can make it or not. So the older ones don’t get the ICU treatment.

Scientist interviewed on R4 said that, it Italy they've reserved ventilators for <65 year olds.

[tomtom]

In Hull morning rush hour was much much quieter. Dead in some busy places - but not completely.

Last night the University finally stopped face to face teaching (as if they had a choice) and the place was very quiet this morning.

Drive over to Manc was quiet too... I also noticed quite a few caravans on the road. Unusual this time of year and not around hols. Older folk escaping with their caravans packed with Costco pasta bog rolls and tomato tins I expect.

Usual amount of trucks on the road though.

[HaeMeS]

A quick look finds it does seem to be reported in the Dutch press - but without knowing more it's not clear what the reason/significance is.  For example it looks like its based on a relatively small number of patients in ICU (50 according to report I read).

It was yesterdays quote by the chairman of the Dutch IC association. At that moment there were 96 Corona patients in IC in the entire Netherlands.
https://nos.nl/video/2327330-arts-over-coronapatienten-op-ic-verdeling-tussen-oud-en-jong-is-fiftyfifty.html

[petejh]

People should sign up for the daily John Hopkins Centre email update(there's a link in a post from yesterday).

Today's update contains updated data on fatality rates by age group in Italy :

''Italy’s National Institute of Health is publishing daily COVID-19 data updates. The March 16 update reports 25,058 cases—including 2,339 healthcare workers—and 1,697 deaths nationwide. The case fatality ratio for individuals 90 years and older is 21.6%, 18.8% 80-89 years, 11.8% for 70-79 years, and 3.2% for 60-69 years. The CFR is 1% for individuals 50-59 years and 0.3% or less for all younger age ranges. Notably, nearly 75% of reported cases are individuals over the age of 50, including 37.4% over the age of 70. Only 1.1% of cases have been reported in individuals 18 years and younger. Based on data from 8,802 of Italy's cases, 6.5% were reported as asymptomatic and a total of 58.8% had mild or very mild disease or no symptoms.''


If 75% of reported COVID19 cases in Italy are people over age 50 then I find it hard to understand how 50% of ICU cases in Netherlands can be under age 50. Are older people hard as fuck in the Netherland's or something?

[reeve]

If 75% of reported COVID19 cases in Italy are people over age 50 then I find it hard to believe 50% of ICU cases in Netherlands are under age 50.

Unless ICU beds are being selectively provided to the young rather than the aged, meaning there could be many untreated >50 year olds but no <50 left untreated.

Or the numbers are otherwise skewed

*Pure conjecture caveat applies*

[Johnny Brown]

Not hard to understand, N=96 vs N=25,000.

[petejh]

A shopping list was messaged out by my dad (age 80) this evening from within the inner sanctum of their cocoon. They put in their first ever order on online shopping with Asda today, but due to demand the earliest available delivery date is Friday NEXT WEEK..

Mostly sausages, soup and cheddar cheese, and a 'Total TV Guide' magazine...


edit: yep small number fallacy.

[Oldmanmatt]

A shopping list was messaged out by my dad (age 80) this evening from within the inner sanctum of their cocoon. They put in their first ever order on online shopping with Asda today, but due to demand the earliest available delivery date is Friday NEXT WEEK..

Mostly sausages, soup and cheddar cheese, and a 'Total TV Guide' magazine...


edit: yep small number fallacy.

This is why our neighbours had to call for assistance. Here, no matter which delivery supermarket we tried ourselves; the earliest delivery was 06/04!

[petejh]

Yeah it's nuts. There must be a lot of elderly in the same boat - either can't get a delivery date or don't know how to use online shopping. So they'll end up going out shopping. I think we should each all check up on at least one old neighbour to get them their 'Hello' mag and gamon.

[Muenchener]

Unless I’m mistaken the US treasury is mailing people $1000 cheques...

Read something about Italians being given €800 each.

Here £330bn loan package for businesses. Sounds good idea  but I bet it won’t be straightforward to apply... devil in detail etc..

Looks like Direct quantative easing to people is starting to happen. Universal basic income......

My landlady in Ötztal at the weekend (just before the hammer fell!) was saying the Austrian government had already instructed banks to suspend payments on business loans, and guaranteed the wages of seasonal workers up to the normal end of the ski season. Further compensation package for loss of business earnings still being worked out in detail but she was - surprisingly for a small businessperson - confident that the budget being talked about was ample to cover the realistic losses.

Presumably much easier to pull off something like that in a small, relatively homogenous country, where they're heavily dependent on a single industry and everybody knows it.

[teestub]

I see the Depot walls have joined the TCAs in closing their doors now. Really hope these businesses can survive.

[tomtom]

I see the Depot walls have joined the TCAs in closing their doors now. Really hope these businesses can survive.

A UTurn by the Depots. Earlier today FB and Insta posts saying they were open but being careful etc etc..

These received largely sympathetic comments but a few choice ones calling them out for not closing.

[Oldmanmatt]

Doesn’t even help to go upmarket...

We’re closing.

It’s not as simple as TT seems to imagine, you cannot just yank someone’s job from them; they have their own living expenses and needs. You can’t just tell the schools and groups who have bookings, that they’re off. It takes coordination and understanding from quite a few involved parties.

Actually, for shits and giggles...
That screen cap was from ~7pm ish. Mrs OMM just tried again, just to see if it was a fluke.
Ummmm....

[tomtom]

I know that Matt. I’ve not had a business - but I’ve had to fire a few people in my time and know what that’s like. I know it will affect you greatly - and I’ll be really sorry if it means the end of the new wall in Hull. I walked past people doing up an old pet shop into a cafe near my house yesterday - and wondered if their dreams were going to be broken.

On Friday there were reports of 140k job losses in Ireland (pop 6 million) a week after they brought in similar measures. It’s going to screw over so many people.

I can’t see what the govt had done working - it strikes me as just being too complex... I hope I’m wrong and that you can Lever something from it...

[mrjonathanr]

Substation in Macc has just closed its doors too.

Brilliant little wall, just a year old, you hope it can survive and reopen. I worry for the staff though.

[Will Hunt]

Roads round us were busy today.

Our neighbour is an elderly lady who is taking the warnings seriously. Her garden is going to be fucking immaculate by the time this is over.

[jshaw]

The University I work at closed completely for teaching and research as of 5pm last night. We all expected it would eventually happen and most were ready but in the end we were given just 4 hours' notice to completely shut down every single lab. Very surreal experience.

edit: wording clarity

[tomtom]

The University I work at closed completely for teaching and research as of 5pm last night. We all expected it would eventually happen and most were ready but in the end we were given just 4 hours' notice to completely shut down every single lab. Very surreal experience.

edit: wording clarity

Ours was half a day ahead. Despite being closed for most things - my inbox reveals that university administrators are still working to full effect. Truly the cockroaches of the academic system.

(For their ability to survive etc... honest.. 😃)

[moose]

Roads round us were busy today.

Our neighbour is an elderly lady who is taking the warnings seriously. Her garden is going to be fucking immaculate by the time this is over.

It's bizarre how a section of the population is taking isolation very seriously, whilst some people seem to be ignorant or ignoring it.

My office has been shut since Friday.  We were told at 3pm Thursday that we all had to start homeworking, except for 2 people on separate floors of the building, who will never meet.  Cue lots of frantically grabbing supplies and packing away case files, whilst the IT technicians tried to revive spare laptops to give to the secretaries so they could continue to work from home.  Since then we've been working from home, only going outside for site visits - where we tend to have no direct contact with people - with lots of stringent arrangements to prevent fellow employees from ever meeting or passing through the same space within 24 hrs (as much a business continuity policy as public health I suspect).

Yet, when I have been out (to a site visit, and I had to buy a printer), the streets are still busy, public transport is crowded.  I phoned my parents - they had just come back from Wetherspoons, where they met a few friends.  My Dad was telling me how it's only 90 year olds and people who are already nearly dead who are at risk.  I tried to tell him different - making reference to the course of the epidemic in Italy, limitations on ICUs in a perma-stretched NHS etc and just got an almost audible shrug.... and from a man in his late 60s, who sounded like a knackered bellows from the effort of putting the recycling in the bin..... I despair...     

[Doylo]

My old man still thinks he’s going to London next week on a cultural trip. Grumbling that all his other holidays probably won’t happen. Hopefully it’ll dawn on him before he goes it’s not the best idea with London having more cases than the rest of the UK put together  I’ve sent his lady a message hoping she’ll have more brains.

[spidermonkey09]

Not least the fact that all the cultural institutions are likely to be shut by then I'd have thought?

[Doylo]

Not least the fact that all the cultural institutions are likely to be shut by then I'd have thought?

Yes he’ll hopefully realise this at some point. Time to stick to the outdoor walks OldKing.

[Falling Down]

I live here/there - unless he fancies an immersive ‘21 days later’ experience or queuing a lot, he’s going to be disappointed.