[IanP]

I’m visiting the court in Liverpool as court hearings are still ongoing. No sign of anyone taking any of this seriously. Full of shoppers and people wandering round. Even saw a group of what looked like 65-70 yr old ladies getting off a bus in St. Patrick’s day gear going on a pub crawl.

So my prediction is that the current measures won’t work and we will need a full, enforced continental style lockdown.

Agreed, seems similar in South Manchester, any change in behaviour seems fairly minor from what I have seen.  Think the whole recommendations and suggestions approach is not really going to work - maybe this is part of a plan to soften up people for a stronger mandated approach coming soon (aware that this is possibly assigning too much foresight and planning to our current leadership)?

[SA Chris]

I’m visiting the court in Liverpool as court hearings are still ongoing. No sign of anyone taking any of this seriously. Full of shoppers and people wandering round. Even saw a group of what looked like 65-70 yr old ladies getting off a bus in St. Patrick’s day gear going on a pub crawl.

So my prediction is that the current measures won’t work and we will need a full, enforced continental style lockdown.

Aberdeen City Centre is near deserted.

[mrjonathanr]

There are ways to reduce the impact such as closing schools but keeping on a skeleton staff for the children of health workers, the police and other essential workers.

This is what is being done over here in Bavaria, which declared a state of emergency and closed schools - among many  other things - yesterday.

Totally. Someone above referred to open schools as ‘low risk’ which is nonsense. 
Schools could be open to Y11, Y13 and the children of key workers only.
It would help protect:

the futures of kids doing exams as more will be in and well enough to learn
key sectors  ( who wants their ICU consultant at home looking after their sick/isolating child?)
the numbers of teachers in work doing their job
people who would otherwise become ill due to increased transmission.

More flexible thinking is needed here.

[Bradders]

our current leadership

Just seen Stanley Johnson saying he'll ignore his own son's advice and keep going to the pub 

[Yossarian]

I am in London till the end of the week then working from home till the end of the month. London is getting more and more quiet - train up fairly empty this morning, and bus from Cannon St to Holborn that’s usually packed has 3 people on it.

The client for the project I’m working on might pause things, which will mean me not working past the end of the month. I tried to call the mortgage company (self employed line) as was in the middle of trying to persuade them not to repossess our house. That line has been manic all day, so assume there are plenty of other people up shit creek.

Understandably, none of the usual design / creative job sites have anything new up.

On the plus side, I will have plenty of time to sit at home and draw pictures.

[Johnny Brown]

Word to that. Lots of folk already suggesting that Boris's advising avoidance not mandating closure is to protect the capital underwriting the insurance industry. Are the Lloyd's names etc going to lose their pants again? I suspect protecting them may force the government to do something more interesting. But there'll be a lot of wait and see first.

[petejh]

Work-wise, just been speaking to clients about upcoming projects and as far as some of them are concerned we're going ahead with work as planned, starting next week. (I'll believe it when we're actually doing it). We have maintenance projects on large petro-chemical sites and they can't just stop maintenance on those types of sites. Other clients with less pressing jobs have postponed some work.

Attitude among colleagues is very complacent, most seem to think work will go ahead regardless and there won't be that much to worry about from the virus. I think they're in for a surprise when there are hotels full of dying (no not a typical weekend in Llandudno), but hope I'm wrong.

Driving into the office mid-morning I was surprised by how many people are making 'essential' journeys    Based on this first day, voluntary lock-down will not be effective.

[gme]

Work-wise, just been speaking to clients about upcoming projects and as far as some of them are concerned we're going ahead with work as planned, starting next week. (I'll believe it when we're actually doing it). We have maintenance projects on large petro-chemical sites and they can't just stop maintenance on those types of sites. Other clients with less pressing jobs have postponed some work.

Al of the clients i have spoken to are proceeding as normal until told otherwise. Crossrail etc.

[Bonjoy]

Kids mingling at school are low risk??  Really.. based on what?

It isn't that children going to school are low risk but that the consequences of closing the schools may be deemed to be higher risk.

If you close the schools, who cares for the children?

In a lot of cases, it could be the grandparents. Now the children, who may be low risk in terms of deaths but may also be high risk in terms of spreading, are in greater contact with the highest risk population.

Or maybe the parents have to stay at home. Straight away, that is another huge chunk of people who are off work with all of the financial implications. I heard yesterday that 20% of health workers could be forced off work if schools are closed.

There is also the issue of the most vulnerable children who only get one proper meal a day: their school lunch. Many of the children at my mother's school will be put in to very dangerous situations if they have weeks at home with no teachers looking out for the signs of abuse and neglect.

There are ways to reduce the impact such as closing schools but keeping on a skeleton staff for the children of health workers, the police and other essential workers.

It isn't quite as simple as just closing schools to reduce spread. That said, I do expect they will close at some stage.

I get all that but what I think is absurd is that a large part of the workforce have been asked to stay home and work (me included), and have children old enough to not need constant supervision. Why are we not being encouraged to take our children out when it is very easy to do so?? Any reduction in numbers in school is a good thing even if full closure is deemed unfeasible. As things stand I could look after my kid at home tomorrow but I would be breaking the law in doing so!! Hardly agile thinking on the part of the government. Seems like a no-brainer from where I'm sat (at home on a laptop).

[Bonjoy]

I have no idea what your on about then and totally disagree.

Not sure what to say to that. 

[galpinos]

Just seen Stanley Johnson saying he'll ignore his own son's advice and keep going to the pub 

As much as I enjoy seeing him undermine his son, WTF is he doing on TV. Why do they keep booking him?

[sdm]

Work-wise, just been speaking to clients about upcoming projects and as far as some of them are concerned we're going ahead with work as planned, starting next week. (I'll believe it when we're actually doing it). We have maintenance projects on large petro-chemical sites and they can't just stop maintenance on those types of sites. Other clients with less pressing jobs have postponed some work.

Attitude among colleagues is very complacent, most seem to think work will go ahead regardless and there won't be that much to worry about from the virus.

Most of our work is on large scale petrochem turnarounds and infrastructure projects and on construction and safety/maintenance turnarounds in the power industry.

So far, all sites are business as usual. None have shut, although many have prepared plans for making everything safe for imminent shutdowns. In the very short term, I expect all to keep going as long as they are allowed to.

In the medium term, work for the power industry is likely to be barely impacted as the timing of most projects is safety critical. Some nuclear construction projects may get delayed and some onshore wind  projects are likely to be put on hold.

Petrochem owners, however, are brutal when it comes to cancelling or postponing non-essential infrastructure projects as soon as they cease to be cost effective in the short term.

When oil prices tanked last time, many refineries went from planning imminent expansions and infrastructure work to mothballing the whole site. Some sites reopened, some projects were reopened, but many remain closed today.

Driving into the office mid-morning I was surprised by how many people are making 'essential' journeys    Based on this first day, voluntary lock-down will not be effective.

My commute (likely to be my last for a while) was deserted. Knowing the sequence of the traffic lights through the town centre, I was able to time every light so that it turned green just before I got there. Very satisfying.

I left the house 5 minutes later than usual and arrived at the office 5 minutes earlier than usual on a 20-25 minute journey, despite never going above 60 on the dual carriageway.

[JamieG]

On a lighter note, the main thing my parent's seemed to have stockpiled is a large block of manchego cheese . . . . .

 

[BrutusTheBear]

For those in need of isolation this route/highball seems to fit the bill.
https://www.ukclimbing.com/logbook/c.php?i=242332
 

[fatneck]

I am heartened today. I have done nothing but sit in meetings discussing how we manage to support already vulnerable people being pitched into crisis. I am heartened by the response we are seeing from the general public, the city council, the football clubs and other agencies in a position of support to work together in this.

Our foodbank and debt advice volunteers mostly fall into at risk groups but we are overrun with  a new wave of volunteers - people who's workplaces have shut down, organisations who want to pay their staff to come and volunteer for us. We ran out of card to print vouchers on today and a swift phone call to our friendly local printer saw him come down in person with a ream or red card for us - this is a guy who doesn't know how long his business will be to operate for and may have to lay significant numbers of his staff off.

Here's a little taster of the kind of support we're getting - £70k in 72 hours!!!!

We don't know what tomorrow looks like let alone next week or the week after but we will keep on doing our best to do what we do!

Proper crazy times man - going climbing on Friday afternoon with a good friend and small business owner who could be in a difficult place soon...

[gme]

I have no idea what your on about then and totally disagree.

Not sure what to say to that. 

I am having a fucking long day.

[Oldmanmatt]

I have no idea what your on about then and totally disagree.

Not sure what to say to that. 

I am having a fucking long day.

Tell me about it.

Mine has involved some heated arguments and even tears.

Still, a neighbour has put it in perspective, a little. They have been holed up for two weeks already, since her husband got home from the R.D&E cancer ward. Their daughter is a classmate of our eldest, she’s been off school and house bound, for her father’s sake. Needed someone to go shopping for them etc. 

[mrjonathanr]

Best wishes both.

[tomtom]

Best wishes both.

Yup.

[tomtom]

Unless I’m mistaken the US treasury is mailing people $1000 cheques...

Read something about Italians being given €800 each.

Here £330bn loan package for businesses. Sounds good idea  but I bet it won’t be straightforward to apply... devil in detail etc..

Looks like Direct quantative easing to people is starting to happen. Universal basic income......

[galpinos]

Just seen some of the select committee meeting with Sir Patrick Vallance on the TV in the brew room and Jeremy Hunt has just said that in The Netherlands, half the Covid-19 cases in intensive care are under 50.

This seem pretty different what we have been lead to believe?

[jwi]

That's an anecdote, not data...

[tomtom]

There’s a scary interview on sky news website with an Italian doctor suggesting pretty much the same.

And that they triage people based on whether they can make it or not. So the older ones don’t get the ICU treatment.

[galpinos]

That's an anecdote, not data...

If it's anecdote, I'm disappointed it's being used in a select committee meeting.

[IanP]

That's an anecdote, not data...

If it's anecdote, I'm disappointed it's being used in a select committee meeting.

A quick look finds it does seem to be reported in the Dutch press - but without knowing more it's not clear what the reason/significance is.  For example it looks like its based on a relatively small number of patients in ICU (50 according to report I read).