[JohnM]

Living with the restrictions here in Austria, but following what is going on in he UK, I can't believe the stark contrast with what is now happening in most of the rest of Europe. It seems the UK is in collective denial about what is coming, which is not helped by the mixed messages that have come out of government. However, maybe the UK is just a week or two behind here and things will shutdown soon. I had a friend from the UK a couple of weeks ago saying nobody will be talking about this in a few weeks and banging on about the cruise she still plans to take her 80 year old mum on, people still saying they will go to the pub as usual, discussing whether or not it is ok to go to the climbing wall (not even an option here) and schools still open. Companies seem to be making their own decisions w.r.t closing or home working. My sister's company is doing half the staff home working one week and then they swap over with the other half of the company the next week which seems pointless to me.

When is the anger going to come out?

There are alot of anxious people out there - anger is one outlet for anxiety...

We've not seen mass disorder yet in Europe (only over toilet rolls in Sydney... ) - but this is surely something to come?

Here there seems to be a lot of anger (online anyway) to people pursuing any sort of selfish activity such as climbing. Now the debate is raging on that climbing in a pair in the woods or ski touring is low risk for transmission but that any accidents would put necessary strain on health services. Other people are arguing that if that is the case driving should be banned as it is statistically more dangerous than many other activities. There is obviously no end to this debate and people are obviously, perhaps selfishly, somehow trying to defend the pursuit of their normal activities. Rock climbing is being lumped with skiing as a no go activity due to the risk but in my mind they are incomparable in terms of risk.

I am not sure I will risk outdoor climbing this week as I think one could face an angry confrontation if somebody saw you going climbing. In the worst case you can receive a 3000 Euro fine for breaching the restrictions and this includes entering a playground. There seems to be more of a sense of following the rules rigidly for the collective good here (which also happens in most of Germany) which you don't really get in the UK. Normally rigid rule following is annoying but it may be useful during these exceptional circumstances. What I hear coming out the UK is that some people are willing to socially isolate whereas others will actively refuse and continue with their usual visits to the pubs. This inconsistent mixture of attitudes as well as no forced closures and kids that are still attending school will cause cases to continue to rise rapidly affecting a larger percentage of the population over a shorter space of time. 

[tk421a]

Current gov.uk advice on social distancing - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

"What is social distancing?
Social distancing measures are steps you can take to reduce the social interaction between people. This will help reduce the transmission of coronavirus (COVID-19).

They are:

Avoid contact with someone who is displaying symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19). These symptoms include high temperature and/or new and continuous cough;
Avoid non-essential use of public transport, varying your travel times to avoid rush hour, when possible; 3.Work from home, where possible. Your employer should support you to do this. Please refer to employer guidance for more information;
Avoid large gatherings, and gatherings in smaller public spaces such as pubs, cinemas, restaurants, theatres, bars, clubs
Avoid gatherings with friends and family. Keep in touch using remote technology such as phone, internet, and social media.
Use telephone or online services to contact your GP or other essential services.
Everyone should be trying to follow these measures as much as is pragmatic.

For those who are over 70, have an underlying health condition or are pregnant, we strongly advise you to follow the above measures as much as you can, and to significantly limit your face-to-face interaction with friends and family if possible.

This advice is likely to be in place for some weeks.
 
How do you look after your mental wellbeing?
Understandably, you may find that social distancing can be boring or frustrating. You may find your mood and feelings are affected and you may feel low, worried or have problems sleeping and you might miss being outside with other people.

At times like these, it can be easy to fall into unhealthy patterns of behaviour which in turn can make you feel worse. There are simple things you can do that may help, to stay mentally and physically active during this time such as:

Look for ideas of exercises you can do at home on the NHS website
Spend time doing things you enjoy – this might include reading, cooking, other indoor hobbies or listening to/watching favourite radio or TV programmes
Try to eat healthy, well-balanced meals, drink enough water, exercise regularly, and try to avoid smoking, alcohol and drugs
Keep your windows open to let in fresh air, get some natural sunlight if you can, or get outside into the garden. You can also go for a walk outdoors if you stay more than 2 metres from others
Further information on looking after your mental health during this time is available."

Travelling by private transport, climbing on your own at a wall where there are a limited number of people keeping apart from one another, and returning home, fulfils all the criteria for social distancing while helping your mental wellbeing and health.
Please everyone look after yourselves for the next few months.

[spidermonkey09]

What I hear coming out the UK is that some people are willing to socially isolate whereas others will actively refuse and continue with their usual visits to the pubs. This inconsistent mixture of attitudes as well as no forced closures and kids that are still attending school will cause cases to continue to rise rapidly affecting a larger percentage of the population over a shorter space of time.

Worth watching BBC News from last night for examples of this. People openly admitting to a news crew they were planning on continuing to go out. Without enforcement from the police and/or army the strategy will result in massive numbers of deaths. Perhaps they are unavoidable though as clearly an 18 month lockdown is unworkable; which is how long a feasible vaccine might take according to that report.

[abarro81]

TK - another take on this situation.  If the gov don't introduce radical financial aid rapidly this week, then the public sentiment that may start to emerge after a number of weeks of sitting at home watching the economy be destroyed, will be at odds with the goal of staying at home.

I think I agree with this - conformity to advice relies on the "we're all in it together, let's have each others backs" mentality. If you, family, friend etc are losing jobs, going bankrupt, failing to pay rent etc without the gov stepping in then I think there's a risk that this mentality becomes v short lived (especially given the timescales we seem to be talking about)

[cheque]

Anyway - just some general musings about how it may change the world we live in - possibly in some positive ways. None of the above is evidence based

If it makes us a bit more hygienic as a society then that can’t be a bad thing. I can’t see how it will fail to really- I’ve always thought “that’s crazy” when I’ve seen Asian people with masks on in the past, I still don’t like the idea of it being normal but now I understand that they went through SARS and that kind of experience will change you forever- hopefully a little of that will help lower illness  transmission in general in the future.

When I was at Awesome Walls on Friday (an odd experience- we seem to be the last country in the world that hasn’t just shut walls- one guy was saying “I think this is just ‘cos now Brexit is over the media need something else to write about”  ) I noticed that as well as signs telling you to wash your hands before and after climbing they had also hung one telling you to not wear your climbing shoes into the bogs. I used the facilities musing that this may be what it finally takes to get walls to take hygiene seriously then as I walked out a lad was walking in in just his socks.   

In what I suppose is a small Covid-related YYFY my Dad (who must be a serious risk as he’s 82, asthmatic, was rushed to hospital fighting for breath last Tuesday and has been diagnosed with heart failure as a result) is being discharged from hospital today. It’s been a stressful week to say the least and it still doesn’t look great but at least he’s out of there before things get ugly.

[petejh]

Another musing..
Anybody else think that this has the potential (if not already there) to turn into THE moral dilemma that will be studied and dissected for the next hundred years?

i.e.

Situation:
An infection to which humanity has no immunity and no vaccine is rapidly spreading throughout the world. It kills a tiny fraction of people in good health under 50, and an order of magnitude greater fraction of people in poor health over 60.
The only way to prevent mass infection is total isolation.
No health service can cope with the ill-health with mass infection which will result from unimpeded spread of the virus.
No economy can cope with the only way to prevent mass infection.

Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?

Is that about right? Big envelope required.

[sdm]

Kids mingling at school are low risk??  Really.. based on what?

It isn't that children going to school are low risk but that the consequences of closing the schools may be deemed to be higher risk.

If you close the schools, who cares for the children?

In a lot of cases, it could be the grandparents. Now the children, who may be low risk in terms of deaths but may also be high risk in terms of spreading, are in greater contact with the highest risk population.

Or maybe the parents have to stay at home. Straight away, that is another huge chunk of people who are off work with all of the financial implications. I heard yesterday that 20% of health workers could be forced off work if schools are closed.

There is also the issue of the most vulnerable children who only get one proper meal a day: their school lunch. Many of the children at my mother's school will be put in to very dangerous situations if they have weeks at home with no teachers looking out for the signs of abuse and neglect.

There are ways to reduce the impact such as closing schools but keeping on a skeleton staff for the children of health workers, the police and other essential workers.

It isn't quite as simple as just closing schools to reduce spread. That said, I do expect they will close at some stage.

[Oldmanmatt]

Another musing..
Anybody else think that this has the potential (if not already there) to turn into THE moral dilemma that will be studied and dissected for the next hundred years?

i.e.

Situation:
An infection to which humanity has no immunity and no vaccine is rapidly spreading throughout the world. It kills a tiny fraction of people in good health under 50, and an order of magnitude greater fraction of people in poor health over 60.
The only way to prevent mass infection is total isolation.
No health service can cope with the ill-health with mass infection which will result from unimpeded spread of the virus.
No economy can cope with the only way to prevent mass infection.

Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?

Is that about right? Big envelope required.

I’m not willing to agree or disagree.

But this is an unavoidable question.

Ultimately, it will have to be answered and the divisions that creates, might make the Brexit issue pale.

I feel like I can already tell the difference between those who don’t have to make these decisions and those who do.

[Nibile]

PS anyone know why the Germans aren't dying?

A friend of mine explained this, he's a senior professor specialist in viruses and vaccines here at Siena University.
Germans are dying just like in every country, only they do NOT report deaths as caused by the virus if the patients had other physical issues.
Just this.
My friend is very piss** because this behavior fuc** up epidemiology stats.
This is what I've been told.
HTH.

[Bradders]

Travelling by private transport, climbing on your own at a wall where there are a limited number of people keeping apart from one another, and returning home, fulfils all the criteria for social distancing while helping your mental wellbeing and health.

Completely agree with you TK.

TT - can absolutely see where you're coming from and I think you've made some really important points but until the Goverment step in to support businesses I simply can't see how they could close voluntarily. Obviously people will then make up their own minds. Ultimately it'll probably end up forcing the Governments' hand as the spread worsens.

For reference based on social media posts looks like all the Depot centres are staying open, plus the Lab in Leeds. Imagine they'll be very quiet. I won't be cancelling my membership, but doubt I'll be using it!

[SA Chris]

I've been instructed to be working from home as of tomorrow. Lunchtimes I will be nipping down to the cliffs to try and finally get some projects done. Likely stash a pad and shes so I can run there (5 min at a run I hope). They are all lowball / low risk.

I expect this will last until schools close, which I expect will be imminent.

[Duma]

Tca in Bristol was eerily quiet yesterday when I left around 6.

Just panic bought a beastmaker and a pulley...

[Johnny Brown]

Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?

I consider this a category error - the decision has already been made as a) and always will be.

Human lives are real and cannot be valued in economic terms. Conversely the economy is entirely a product of our imaginations and has no unbreakable link to reality. It won't go away because modern society is dependent on trade. But the current position is no more concrete than a game of monopoly, there are just more players.

Imagine a venn diagram with three concentric circles like a target. At the centre is the economy, the middle ring society, the outer environment. The economy can only subsist as a subset of a functioning society, just as society can only exist within a functioning environment.

Yes I know, economists think they can put a dollar value on life, and the economy is quite capable of bestowing harm and benefit. But money is not a real thing, if you press reset tomorrow the only actual effect is rich people lose their wealth, which bestows no real harm only damage to self-image. If you don't agree, consider this - at least 12 trillion has already been lost from the US economy due to covid-19. Where has it gone? It only existed as a measure of people's aggregate confidence in the future. If they are deserving of it they will soon build it back up - the economy will come roaring back as soon as we let it.  The problem of course is those in power are those with the capital. They won't press reset and the rich will try to push their losses onto others. But the longer this goes on the more radical the solution will need to be.

Human life and health is real and will be treated as such, as it has been since before money was conceived and will be after it has been forgotten.

Like GME I'm actually optimistic - as this becomes the only issue for huge sections of society I expect a vaccine will be developed and distributed in record time. The team that create it will be set for life with both status and wealth.

[crzylgs]

I expect this will last until schools close, which I expect will be imminent.

Teacher friend who is head of department and thus involved in decision making and planning of a secondary school. They are down 16 out of 72 teachers already. So under the current guidelines of people having to self-isolate it won't be long until they are forced to close. Am sure it is a similar case up and down the country.

[Ru]

Do you:
a. voluntarily kill the global economy temporarily, to try to protect the at-risk group from infection?
b. protect the livelihoods of current and future generations, but accept that the at-risk group will die in huge numbers from infection?

Those aren’t the only two choices. Looked at retrospectively, or theoretically, they might look like the only options but the likely reality is that we will fudge a path between the two, locking down when cases rise, easing restrictions when they fall, to allow people to earn some money. Whilst the middle way may not achieve a technically optimal outcome it will probably be the only one that will be politically possible.

[Doylo]

And maybe the Chinese will start doing without bats and similarly wonderful ingredients in their soups and butties.  And close those fuckin markets.

[Fultonius]

And maybe the Chinese will start doing without bats and similarly wonderful ingredients in their soups and butties.  And close those fuckin markets.

While I agree the Chinese do some, to our minds, unthinkable things (sharks fin soup, rhino horn etc.), I don't think playing the Blame the Chinese card right now is going to do anyone any favours. Considering the openness of how they've shared data on this, they've saved countless lives.

[kelvin]

I've cancelled all my work for the foreseeable future - I'm a self employed decorator.
This week's supposed customer was 73 with lung issues.
In fact, the next job I can realistically do is in early June, they're both fit and under 70. That's ignoring the fact I'm asthmatic myself.

So no income for a while. Luckily, I'm pretty solvent but I can't imagine how tough it'll be for people in a similar work situation as me and that have young kids, a mortgage, car loan etc

[Nigel]

Fultonius, missed your post while I was typing mine! Indeed that is an option. It will be interesting to see what the government step in with later today...

[Johnny Brown]

We will need to go a lot deeper into this before anything radical gets suggested. But Macron seems to be pointing the way.

I do expect some sort of Mortgage and Rent relief in the short term.

[Fiend]

Andy W Can anyone explain how getting in my car on my drive, going somewhere no one else is, climbing on rock no one else has touched and going home again is a problem?  Is it the risk of crashing?  I guess it is an unnecessary journey but....

One could speculate that spending money running a private vehicle could be minorly useful for the economy. Presuming it averages out as more costly than gardening and netflix.

[Ru]

I’m visiting the court in Liverpool as court hearings are still ongoing. No sign of anyone taking any of this seriously. Full of shoppers and people wandering round. Even saw a group of what looked like 65-70 yr old ladies getting off a bus in St. Patrick’s day gear going on a pub crawl.

So my prediction is that the current measures won’t work and we will need a full, enforced continental style lockdown.

[Muenchener]

There are ways to reduce the impact such as closing schools but keeping on a skeleton staff for the children of health workers, the police and other essential workers.

This is what is being done over here in Bavaria, which declared a state of emergency and closed schools - among many  other things - yesterday.

In a lot of cases, it could be the grandparents. Now the children, who may be low risk in terms of deaths but may also be high risk in terms of spreading, are in greater contact with the highest risk population.

Saw a grandmother pushing a toddler in a pushchair in the supermarket yesterday and thought "dead woman walking". But yeah, one knows nothing about what the family circumstances might be.

[Doylo]

Even saw a group of what looked like 65-70 yr old ladies getting off a bus in St. Patrick’s day gear going on a pub crawl.

.

Lambs to the slaughter .

[Davo]

Just my twopenneth here: as someone who runs a small business we are likely to be very severely affected over a long period of time. Most of our clients are elderly and are likely to be unable to be seen for a lengthy period. For the person that says money isn’t real (I accept the theory) I would suggest that they are likely facing a different situation to us. This is as many have stated likely to be an economic nightmare thousands of small to medium sized businesses going under. The effect of that on employment and demand for goods and services will be hard to imagine.

I hope (but am not optimistic) that the govt announces significant financial support for small businesses and the self employed such as one man bands etc. If we really all are in this together and want everyone to act in each other’s best interests then that is what it will take. If we are simply asking every small business owner or self employed person in the uk to sign onto universal credit for a year I really don’t see how that is being in it together!

Just to be clear I value human life as much as the next person but what we are asking of society is enormous and there should (in my opinion) be compensation for all businesses affected and not just simply we will give you a loan or a mortgage holiday. Yes this means taxes might go up and possibly we would have to look at wealth taxes etc

Anyway, I am still thinking of climbing as an essential and fairly risk free bit of exercise as long as I don’t go to a climbing wall.