[tomtom]

From what I've just seen (not completely verified but I think it's true) Denmark is closing its borders tomorrow.

Whilst I can see the logic - isn’t this going to lead to mass panic buying (and last min travelling)?

[gme]

In my opinion this reaction really isn’t what we need. Trump style reaction that I though Europe would not do.

[andy popp]

I'm neither justifying nor condemning, merely reporting facts that might not otherwise be noticed. Stores utterly normal as of midday. Freight is not effected from what I understand. And you can still leave at any time after tomorrow. Restrictions are still much more stringent in Italy I think.

[tomtom]

Me neither... I don’t know enough to make a complete judgement.  Which in itself is a bit unnerving....

[Doylo]

I’m a clueless cunt but this ‘herd immunity’ strategy seems like one hell of a gamble that’s gonna cause a lot of deaths. The Italians are saying they wish they’d locked down earlier. China are getting on top of it with draconian measures yet we’re the only country conducting what pretty much amounts to an experiment with very high stakes. I hope they’ve got it right for the sake of the vulnerable (including my mum). Disclaimer : I’m a clueless cunt

[Andy W]

I’m a clueless cunt but this ‘herd immunity’ strategy seems like one hell of a gamble that’s gonna cause a lot of deaths. The Italians are saying they wish they’d locked down earlier. China are getting on top of it with draconian measures yet we’re the only country conducting what pretty much amounts to an experiment with very high stakes. I hope they’ve got it right for the sake of the vulnerable (including my mum). Disclaimer : I’m a clueless cunt

I keep mis-reading 'herd immunity' as 'herd mentality' then I think of 'mad cow disease'. I'm worried 

[BrutusTheBear]

I’m a clueless cunt but this ‘herd immunity’ strategy seems like one hell of a gamble that’s gonna cause a lot of deaths. The Italians are saying they wish they’d locked down earlier. China are getting on top of it with draconian measures yet we’re the only country conducting what pretty much amounts to an experiment with very high stakes. I hope they’ve got it right for the sake of the vulnerable (including my mum). Disclaimer : I’m a clueless cunt

. The prime minister Dominic Cummings is into eugenics isn’t he? I expect he’s quite pleased at the opportunity to remove inferior DNA without having to change a single social policy.

[tomtom]

Anyone got a link for some decent (regularly updated) graphics/graphs sites? The ones I’ve got bookmarked never upstate.

[HarryBD]

Think this is done at a minimum of daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Paul B]

ITV news are suggesting on Twitter that the government are poised to do an imminent u-turn with large public gatherings being banned shortly.

Perhaps a result of opposition pressure to publish the science behind their lack of action?

[petejh]

Anyone got a link for some decent (regularly updated) graphics/graphs sites? The ones I’ve got bookmarked never upstate.

Have you been using the John Hopkins map? https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


China still flatlining.. Looks like the largest daily increase today in rest of world.

[petejh]

Some of the media making out the ban on public gathering is a 'U-turn' in policy. For anyone with eyes and a working brain it's obviously been coming, as are other much more drastic measures coming, how can that be a u-turn? We're on a path towards all sorts of drastic policies, just because a policy hasn't been announced yet does not mean it isn't intended to be enacted at a relevant point in time. Political point-scoring probably the worst thing anyone can do right now, it erodes confidence and encourages panic.

[nik at work]

Completely agree Pete.

[Bradders]

Political point-scoring probably the worst thing anyone can do right now, it erodes confidence and encourages panic.

I take it as more an attempt to save political face given it's essentially been taken out of their hands; so many businesses and organisations have already decided to act that they had to "ban" things to make it seem like they're keeping up.

Not saying they weren't always planning to do it, but they weren't being transparent about those plans.

[tomtom]

What’s becoming clearer as the days progress is a lack of leadership across Europe. With a virus that respects no boundaries or social groups some leadership pan Europe was what was needed here (let’s forget the EU/Brexit shit for a min). Could the country leaders get together and come up with a plan together?

Second - people renting are in a potential real pickle. Can’t see any of the govt measures helping them.

[andy popp]

What’s becoming clearer as the days progress is a lack of leadership across Europe. With a virus that respects no boundaries or social groups some leadership pan Europe was what was needed here (let’s forget the EU/Brexit shit for a min). Could the country leaders get together and come up with a plan together?

Very true. But even in a region with a high degree of institutional and ideological alignment, e.g. the EU, organising such things can be incredibly difficult. It took many months for anything like a coherent, cohesive response to the financial crisis of 2008 to emerge.

But this moment does give lie to the idea that there is some kind of Pan-European supra-national government.

[TobyD]

A cracking opening line from Matt Chorley in the Times today:

Just as we're asking frail, confused elderly people to stay indoors America is being asked to put them in the white house. 

[petejh]

Bit of perspective.. Singapore cases accelerating now, suggesting it isn't realistic to contain this, as per what the UK are saying. Singapore actually have a 4-times greater reported cases of infection per head of population than the UK - 200/5million versus 800/65million.

You can sign up for daily email updates from John Hopkins center.. Info on death rates in S.Korea from today's update:

The South Korean CDC reported a total of 7,979 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 67 deaths. Epidemiological links have been identified for 79.8% of cases. The most recent report provides an updated breakdown of cases by region, sex, and age group, providing additional insight into the ongoing epidemic. Females represent 61.9% of cases but only 41.8% of deaths. The unadjusted case fatality ratio for individuals aged 80 years and older is 8.30% (21 deaths out of 253 cases), and it is 4.74% for those 70-79 years old and 1.42% for those 60-69 years old. For cases under the age of 60, the case fatality ratio is only 0.12%. Notably, there have been only 2 deaths below the age of 50, despite 4,712 confirmed cases.

[sheavi]

Some of the media making out the ban on public gathering is a 'U-turn' in policy. For anyone with eyes and a working brain it's obviously been coming, as are other much more drastic measures coming, how can that be a u-turn? We're on a path towards all sorts of drastic policies, just because a policy hasn't been announced yet does not mean it isn't intended to be enacted at a relevant point in time. Political point-scoring probably the worst thing anyone can do right now, it erodes confidence and encourages panic.

Totally agree. Prof. Ian Donald on Twitter has a thread on the governments policy that is worth a read.

[Bonjoy]

Bit of perspective.. Singapore...

The South Korean CDC reported a total of 7,979 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 67 deaths. Epidemiological links have been identified for 79.8% of cases. The most recent report provides an updated breakdown of cases by region, sex, and age group, providing additional insight into the ongoing epidemic. Females represent 61.9% of cases but only 41.8% of deaths. The unadjusted case fatality ratio for individuals aged 80 years and older is 8.30% (21 deaths out of 253 cases), and it is 4.74% for those 70-79 years old and 1.42% for those 60-69 years old. For cases under the age of 60, the case fatality ratio is only 0.12%. Notably, there have been only 2 deaths below the age of 50, despite 4,712 confirmed cases.

That is a low figure for under 60s, but I wonder how much it takes into account the fact that as cases ramp up the early fatalities will be inevitably be the frailest sufferers. In China the average time from first symptoms to deaths was around 17 days, which will include the weakest dying sooner and the strongest surviving for longer.
The age spread of CFR in most countries wont be evident for some time yet IMO.

[TobyD]

Political point-scoring probably the worst thing anyone can do right now, it erodes confidence and encourages panic.

Agreed,  in the UK,  the government seems to be doing as good a job as could be expected.
Trump's reaction, on the other hand was objectively batshit crazy, and he still seems more interested in trying to tell everyone hes a genius than in doing anything useful.

[petejh]

Agree that any figures currently are only provisional and won't be accurate when we look back in 1-2 year's time. I'm certainly not underplaying anything.
Sobering to read up on the mortality stats for 1918-1920 Spanish flu pandemic. Of note is that killed more young adults then elderly. But reading between the lines, life expectancy was only 41 in Spain at the time! So possibly if there had been millions more elderly in 1918 then the mortality stats for Spanish flu would be skewed more to the elderly... as per today with covid-19.. Also of note is that it was a two-year pandemic, with repeated re-emergence...

I predict this event will kill Trump's presidency because it will show him up in stark relief, even to those who so far have been wilfully blind, for what he is: a self-absorbed personality(disorder) without the leadership qualities required for public emergencies.

[Paul B]

Totally agree. Prof. Ian Donald on Twitter has a thread on the governments policy that is worth a read.

Tweet 5 in that thread seems to rely on immunity following infection which I thought was still currently unproven?

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518378039574528?s=19

[Offwidth]

Pete is talking complete nonsense about S Korea and Singapore. The S Korean data speaks for itself

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

As for Singapore... I also have friends there and confirm what Will said yesterday at 5.11pm. Singapore will be on top of their testing (where most countries will be well behind and the US barely off the starting blocks) so comparative numbers there are inflated and they had the diesese early and still have have no deaths. They still give daily details almost down to indivdual case levels (straits times is arguably thier main serious newspaper).

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/13-new-covid-19-cases-including-nine-who-caught-it-overseas-200-confirmed-cases-so-far

Time did an article yesterday on how to learn from Singapore Hong Kong and Taiwan

https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan/

As for Ian Donald he is a psychologist and an expert in how people respond in epidemiology. His first point in his multiple tweet yesterday is this

"The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to."

WHO say the UK approach of herd immunity is wrong. I know what I'm going to believe.

Our government said they were holding off on mass closures one day and change their mind the next (as many organisations did it for them). Pete might be right that this strictly speaking isn't a U turn but its a bloody hard bend (or the first part of a 3 point turn).  It's not anti government to celebrate they are now following the best epidemiology.  Ian Donald in the long tweet says Johnson needs to be kept away from the complexity of this planning

[sheavi]

Totally agree. Prof. Ian Donald on Twitter has a thread on the governments policy that is worth a read.

Tweet 5 in that thread seems to rely on immunity following infection which I thought was still currently unproven?

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518378039574528?s=19

Yes it comes with obvious/usual caveats. Anecdotally there are reports of a small number people being 're-infected'.