Holes in that reasoning?
Because the vast majority of “senior management” and “executive” control of of economic institutions, companies and corporations (or to put it another way, the people who actually run things) are square in the at risk of serious illness categories.They don’t even need to be hospitalised. Knock these people on their backs for 4-6 weeks and add in a “poorly” chunk of 35-50 year old middle management and a whole bunch of “sub par” reduced performance 25-35 year olds; and watch the economic drag that creates.
Conversely that is likely to be the sign that UK have estimated it correctly - a longer duration lasting well into mid-summer, with consistently high, but not overwhelming, hospitalisations, is the outcome we're aiming for. Whether it works or not we'll see. I think the reality hasn't sunk in yet among the public that we're looking at 3-4 months at least of high levels of illness, not a few weeks of lock down and then come out and it's on the decline. We're on a lengthy upslope, perhaps people have been distracted by Italy thinking they've peaked but they haven't, they're still on the uptrend too. I can see the sense in the concept longer term approach and not moving too soon.It's emerging that China had its first case in November... peaked in February.Noticed the LSE just banned short-selling of Italian and Spanish stocks Ru
I'll be surprised if it's over in China. The end of the beginning perhaps.
As a comparison, China has had approx 3,200 deaths and is down to about 8-10 a day. Its population is 20x bigger than ours. If we have a 60% infection rate, with 1% mortality, that would equate to 5 million deaths, minimum. As outcomes go, the government is aiming at a situation that is 30,000 times worse, in terms of mortality (if I've done my sums correctly and when corrected for the population), than China seems to have achieved. Intentionally aiming at a mortality rate 30,000 times greater than has been achieved elsewhere needs some significant justification in my mind.
... 1.58m "hospitalisations" (which in itself is bloody scary as there aren't anywhere near that number of CC bed spaces...)Assuming that the current 10 deaths in 562 cases is a fair indicator of UK mortality rate:
Everyone keeps asking why we are not shutting schools like everyone else but most contrived have not done so. France Spain Germany holland etc all have schools open. Only italy Austria Ireland and denmark have. UK policy is not miles behind every other country as is being suggested. This thing is changing by the hour as will our policy.
My doctor girlfriend was baffled this morning at the repeated mentions of herd immunity in the news as there is no evidence in the public domain that infection and subsequent recovery provides immunity.
Quote from: Ally Smith on March 13, 2020, 10:46:28 am... 1.58m "hospitalisations" (which in itself is bloody scary as there aren't anywhere near that number of CC bed spaces...)Assuming that the current 10 deaths in 562 cases is a fair indicator of UK mortality rate:I think the first line invalidates the assumption in the second line.
I have different maths to both of you... Ally you multiplied mortality rate (10/562 = 1.78%) by hospitalisations, why not by 39.6m cases? That would give ~700k deaths...
Immunity after getting a virus well documented. Corona-virus is no different we'd be seriously fucked if it were.
Quote from: gme on March 13, 2020, 09:54:48 amEveryone keeps asking why we are not shutting schools like everyone else but most contrived have not done so. France Spain Germany holland etc all have schools open. Only italy Austria Ireland and denmark have. UK policy is not miles behind every other country as is being suggested. This thing is changing by the hour as will our policy.Austria not on full lockdown of schools as of yet. They will close schools next week, but apparently the kids whose parents work in vital services/cant be looked after at home will still attend.
Quote from: highrepute on March 13, 2020, 10:58:29 amImmunity after getting a virus well documented. Corona-virus is no different we'd be seriously fucked if it were.That was my understanding too; but as far as I can see we don't know it for certain. I'm confident my girlfriend is aware of how immunity works (you would hope so!) so I am being led by her to a certain extent; thought it was quite striking how baffled she was by the notion, but perhaps thats just an overly cautious view.
Quote from: highrepute on March 13, 2020, 10:58:29 amImmunity after getting a virus well documented. Corona-virus is no different we'd be seriously fucked if it were.Jury seems to be out. There are reports of reinfection from Covid-19 but these might be due to false negative tests. This is from Goldman's Cecil Medicine textbook: "Previous infection does not induce high levels of protective immunity. Humans can be reinfected with respiratory coronaviruses throughout life, and human volunteers can be symptomatically reinfected with the same strain of coronavirus 1 year after the first infection."
The stats available do not have the "granularity" to draw better conclusion from. As much as Boris is shit at explaining what the plan is, PHE and the DOH seem to be doing an ok job. Epidemiologists don't seem to agree on an approach so expecting there to be "one true vision" is hopeless. I don't think the public would buy into a full on lockdown now.
Quote from: Johnny Brown on March 13, 2020, 10:34:07 amI'll be surprised if it's over in China. The end of the beginning perhaps.I love your positivity.
I guess it could end up being a load of kids with coconut shells and it was all in vain.....
I'd summarise that quote as - you can get flu more than once, the vaccine (or developed immunity) lasts a year so get it every year.