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Coronavirus Covid-19 (Read 681111 times)

petejh

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#4225 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 08, 2021, 09:42:59 pm
It was said to mean that I'd far rather live in a country with a health service stretched by non-pandemic issues - because that would mean we're free of the worst effects of the pandemic and so freer to go about living our lives - than in a country with a health service stretched by serious covid cases

Unfortunately, looks like we're going to get to have both at the same time:

https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1413000336915243010

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/leeds-cancer-surgery-coronavirus-nhs-b1879646.html

The NHS won't collapse and it's unlikely that there'll have to be the covert triage that there was in the first wave, but it could still be pretty rough. "Normal" this ain't.

I mean, it’s a well considered twitter thread.. but there’s not a single thing in it that makes me even raise an eyebrow. Am I alone in feeling this, surely not?
We’ve just had a once in many generations global pandemic and are now coming out of the other side. Things aren’t going to be ‘normal’ after an event like that. The waves and ripples are going to be felt for a long while. To think it could be any other way would be madness. Negative consequences such as backlogs of patients and other increased pressures on various parts of society are going to be the trade-off for us not living in semi-hibernation and completely sinking the economy and people’s futures.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2021, 09:52:31 pm by petejh »

slab_happy

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#4226 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 09, 2021, 02:03:35 pm
But there's a big difference between "okay, this might be our least worst option but it's going to be rocky, the NHS is going to be under a lot of pressure for a few months at a point where it's still trying to recover from the last wave" and "everything's basically normal again".

As Hopson says, it's about explicitly acknowledging the trade-off here, that lifting restrictions it does mean higher hospitalizations and deaths for a while (albeit hopefully at a much lower level than the last wave), and that some things (like backlog recovery) will have to give.

Good piece with an emphasis on the disconnect between public messaging and the reality in the NHS:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/we-knees-its-time-honesty-21006248

James Ward's been updating his modelling; if his central assumptions and most likely outcomes hold, we may be heading into a wave with a peak of Covid hospitalizations at about 40% of January's:

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1412182736572399623

On the one hand: the NHS won't collapse! On the other hand: that's going to be rough.

None of this may be news to you, but when the government says "Freedom day! The NHS will be fine!", I don't think most people hear "So, your cancer surgery will have to be cancelled (again); that hip replacement that's been waiting for a year will have to wait another year or two; and are you sure you really need to go to A&E?"

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#4227 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 09, 2021, 04:35:24 pm
Pop-ups and walk-ins, with info on places that are quietly doing second doses of mRNA vaccines before the official 8-week limit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/

Meaghan Kall (epidemiologist at PHE) explains why in her opinion it's fine to do this:

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1409114703700402178

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#4228 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 09, 2021, 05:13:03 pm
Pop-ups and walk-ins, with info on places that are quietly doing second doses of mRNA vaccines before the official 8-week limit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/

Meaghan Kall (epidemiologist at PHE) explains why in her opinion it's fine to do this:

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1409114703700402178

Useful thread confirming the lack of Moderna walk-ins and that I wasn't just not finding them. They seemed to use it for all 30-40 year old first doses (in this area at least) and then realised they needed to ration the supply.

slab_happy

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#4229 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 09, 2021, 06:49:24 pm
I wish they'd at least okay mix-and-matching Moderna and Pfizer (which Canada's done -- their advisory committee ruled that they "can be considered interchangeable"); they're basically the same vaccine in different hats. That would add a lot of flexibility and reduce the need for rationing.

It looks like they're not going to okay mix-and-matching for people who had a first dose of AZ, at least not at the moment, but that's purely a supply issue: as far as people can estimate, the UK's got loads of AZ, restricted supplies of mRNA, and they need all the latter for the under-40s.

slab_happy

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#4230 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 12, 2021, 07:58:29 am
If anyone fancies doing some science and/or would like an extra jab --

Oxford are studying a version of AZ which has been tweaked to deal with Beta (and that should hopefully be more effective against Delta too):

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1413907726451752961
https://www.c19vaccinestudy.com/#!/

They're looking for people over 30 who've either had two Covid vaccine jabs at least three months ago OR who haven't had any jabs yet (because they're testing it both as a booster and as a standalone).

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#4231 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 13, 2021, 09:05:49 am
Sheffield Arena and Octagon now taking walk-ins:

https://www.thestar.co.uk/health/coronavirus/no-appointment-needed-for-covid-jabs-at-sheffield-arena-and-octagon-centre-from-today-3303326

Though the Sheffield Arena centre is moving to a new location on the 26th, so the arena can go back to being an arena again:

https://www.sth.nhs.uk/news/news?action=view&newsID=1316

Had my second jab there yesterday and it was dead quiet; I didn't have to queue at all.

TobyD

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#4232 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 08:31:46 am
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being  notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?

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#4233 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 08:37:16 am
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being  notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?

I dunno. I note, however, that the official daily hospital admissions number, has not been updated since the 14th of July. Strikes me as odd. It was 747 per day, then; I imagine it’s quite a bit higher now? Possibly alarmingly so.

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#4234 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 08:49:10 am
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being  notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny?

Less "appallingly cynical", more "wildly optimistic", I think.

ali k

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#4235 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 09:06:06 am
Less "appallingly cynical", more "wildly optimistic", I think.

Yes :agree: Infection rates are pretty bloody high. Plus, don’t you have to do more than just say “I’ve been pinged” to get out of work. I’d have thought there’d at least be an expectation to send a screenshot of the app to your employer?

TobyD

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#4236 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 09:18:42 am
Less "appallingly cynical", more "wildly optimistic", I think.

Yes :agree: Infection rates are pretty bloody high. Plus, don’t you have to do more than just say “I’ve been pinged” to get out of work. I’d have thought there’d at least be an expectation to send a screenshot of the app to your employer?

I don't know,  I'm sure rates are going up fast, but I imagine that proof will depend on the employer.

I wonder if the PM might be the most likely offender here? What a coincidence that hes at Chequers which has a swimming pool and not in Downing Street. 

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#4237 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 09:23:07 am
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being  notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?

Wait, what? People have jobs where time off work, planned or unplanned, doesn't just mean twice as much to do upon return!?

ali k

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#4238 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 09:39:27 am
I wonder if the PM might be the most likely offender here? What a coincidence that hes at Chequers which has a swimming pool and not in Downing Street.
I’m as cynical as they come, but I have no doubt he would’ve been ‘pinged’ if Javid tested positive. The question is when was he ‘pinged’ and which address was he in when it happened?

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#4239 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 02:01:26 pm
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being  notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?

I dunno. I note, however, that the official daily hospital admissions number, has not been updated since the 14th of July. Strikes me as odd. It was 747 per day, then; I imagine it’s quite a bit higher now? Possibly alarmingly so.

Scotland only reports weekly I think. If you split the figures by nation you can see the other nations to the 19th - adds up to ~800, and given where scotland was on the 14th, I'd expect over 900 for UK by now.

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#4240 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 04:52:49 pm
good cases figures today, lowest since 13th, and 6 days since the peak(?) on the 17th. Dare we hope?

TobyD

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#4241 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 05:50:53 pm
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being  notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?

Wait, what? People have jobs where time off work, planned or unplanned, doesn't just mean twice as much to do upon return!?

If I had a shit job in a warehouse which I was paid badly for, I'd probably use any excuse to get off work! The work would be the same whatever you did...

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#4242 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 08:16:47 pm
good cases figures today, lowest since 13th, and 6 days since the peak(?) on the 17th. Dare we hope?

Looking at the logarithmic data, it is very encouraging. The admissions data is updated to the 18th now and didn’t rise as rapidly as I had thought it might.
So, I’m cautiously allowing a hint of a smidgeon of hope, to peek out of the corner of my pessimism.

Of course, we won’t know the effects of the 19th for another couple of days, at least, and a week more to be sure.

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#4243 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 22, 2021, 08:48:45 pm
I'm hoping that the school hols will offset the effects of freedom day...

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#4244 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 23, 2021, 10:06:42 am
Is it appallingly cynical to suggest that the current situation with people being  notified by the app may possibly not represent escalating infections as much as their desire to get out of going to work when the weather is this hot and sunny? I wonder if the situation will improve when it starts raining again?

Wait, what? People have jobs where time off work, planned or unplanned, doesn't just mean twice as much to do upon return!?

If I had a shit job in a warehouse which I was paid badly for, I'd probably use any excuse to get off work! The work would be the same whatever you did...

If you had a shit job in a warehouse which you were paid badly for, you might not be able to afford to spend ten days only getting statutory sick pay. Assuming you weren't on a zero hours contract and not earning enough to qualify for SSP anyway. Or classified as "self-employed".

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#4245 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 23, 2021, 10:08:41 am
By-the-by, how widespread is the experience of empty shelves etc.? Is it something posters here are experiencing? Genuine question from the outside.

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#4246 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 23, 2021, 10:37:44 am
Yup. Shop last Tuesday , Sainsbury’s Torquay, around 40% empty shelves. Noticeably very little Sainsbury’s own brand of anything.

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#4247 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 24, 2021, 10:25:31 am
By-the-by, how widespread is the experience of empty shelves etc.? Is it something posters here are experiencing? Genuine question from the outside.

Yeah some,  but nothing drastic I've noticed.  I'd say not that much worse than its been regularly since the UK left the EU. The fact it's now the weekend might result in more shortages though, as lots of families seem to shop then usually. 

I think a lot of negative effects of Brexit have been brushed under the carpet due to the pandemic.  The fishing industry is on its way to ruin, for example. 

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#4248 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 24, 2021, 12:00:10 pm
By-the-by, how widespread is the experience of empty shelves etc.? Is it something posters here are experiencing? Genuine question from the outside.

Yeah some,  but nothing drastic I've noticed.  I'd say not that much worse than its been regularly since the UK left the EU. The fact it's now the weekend might result in more shortages though, as lots of families seem to shop then usually. 

I think a lot of negative effects of Brexit have been brushed under the carpet due to the pandemic.  The fishing industry is on its way to ruin, for example.

Bikes. Had to buy a new bike for No.4 coz she keeps growing. Very hard. A family friend runs an MTB shop and we usually buy from him. Apparently, a combination of the Suez issue and Brexit mean it’s like trying to legally import cocaine. He was struggling to get his brand in, because there was a European distributor and no UK importer etc. for the US brand. So, we went to Halfords, only to find we couldn’t get a bike in her frame size at all, eventually finding one of only two available in the UK… That was about a month ago now, so perhaps it’s improving. Anyway OT, but yes, I think a lot is being overlooked as the latest wave peaks.

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#4249 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
July 24, 2021, 04:26:32 pm
Some of that may be shipping issues, which are a global issue at the moment and appear set to stay that way for the rest of 2021 at least...

 

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