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Coronavirus Covid-19 (Read 681065 times)

Will Hunt

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#25 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 12:51:02 pm
It's hard to tell what to do really. If we're all going to get it then we might as well get it in France. It just depends what the FCO's advice is. We might even be past the containment phase by then and have given up on quarantining everyone. I was originally reticent out of concern for our young children but it seems at the moment that they might not be affected.

I'm now wondering whether it's worth hanging on a bit to book it in the hope that the price of ferries and Air BnBs plummets in the face of reduced demand!

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#26 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 01:06:16 pm
You're concerned about a Font trip in September? Slight over-reaction I would guess. Go on, live normally, and wash your hands before visiting old people.

Also, re: insurance. I'm guessing if you have the money for the holiday, not going is not going to be financially crippling, merely unfortunate. Just book it. Either we'll all be dead, or it will be long forgotten....

Will Hunt

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#27 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 01:16:28 pm
Well obviously nobody has ever been financially crippled by having a holiday cancelled. My concern is that it would be very very disappointing. Stoicism aside, I prefer to avoid disappointment if at all possible. And I have a duty to protect the baby and 3 year old that I would be travelling with from coming to harm. Given that infectious diseases normally kill the very young and the old in greater numbers, I don't think it's an unreasonable concern to have or have had.


I'm struggling to remember my Exodus now. We've had the plague of locusts in east Africa, the storms in the midlands, now it's pestilence. Are we on boils or frogs next?

SA Chris

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#28 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 01:23:14 pm
boiling frogs.

No, that's just us as the earth gets hotter.

csl

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#29 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 01:48:30 pm
Well obviously nobody has ever been financially crippled by having a holiday cancelled. My concern is that it would be very very disappointing. Stoicism aside, I prefer to avoid disappointment if at all possible. And I have a duty to protect the baby and 3 year old that I would be travelling with from coming to harm. Given that infectious diseases normally kill the very young and the old in greater numbers, I don't think it's an unreasonable concern to have or have had.


I'm struggling to remember my Exodus now. We've had the plague of locusts in east Africa, the storms in the midlands, now it's pestilence. Are we on boils or frogs next?

The young are less likely to become infected with it, but they might pass it on to you https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-kids-what-role-transmission/

tomtom

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#30 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 03:33:45 pm
Hold out Will. There are apparently lots of travel and hotel bargains now because of people cancelling.

I can only see the situation getting worse for now...

T_B

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#31 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 04:44:47 pm
Maybe in destinations where there have been outbreaks, but that means more demand elsewhere as people/tour operators switch to alternatives.

But, yes if you want to go to Venice next week you can probably get a bargain.

mrjonathanr

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#32 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 27, 2020, 04:50:37 pm

And for the prospects of whatever Democrat is facing Trump in November.

Are you sure? The Guardian reports that Trump thinks there is next to no risk
Quote
In a press conference in Washington, the US president said the danger to Americans “remains very low” and predicted that the number of cases diagnosed in the country, currently on 15, could fall to zero in a “few days”.
“We have had tremendous success, tremendous success, beyond what people would have thought.

If you can take Trump at his word, then his administration is clearly ahead of the rest of the world..
Quote
Whatever happens, we’re totally prepared,
:-\ :-\

dr_botnik

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#33 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 12:17:19 am
Quite a nice summary/comparison of Covid19 to regular Flu here
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Takehome message is regular flu has a mortality rate of c. 0.05% (US data) Covid19 ~2%

Covid19 - 5% of cases were 'critial' where "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure"

Ok, on the surface, that seems worrying. However, later in the article it says;

Quote
...in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%

So, 0.4% is higher than the flu, but significantly lower than 2%.
One explanation for the higher 2.9% in the Hubei Province could be due to higher rates of respiratory illness due to the extremely high levels of atmospheric pollution in the area. Death rates won't be so high in areas where children have seen distinct clouds

mark s

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#34 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 08:47:37 am
Ive seen reports of it in buxton

Muenchener

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#35 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 08:52:47 am
Massively cheap flights to Barcelona right now due to cancellation of the Mobile World Congress - huge telco industry shindig. Thought about a long weekend in Siurana but decided it would be irresponsible (see also Long Haul Flights thread)

petejh

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#36 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 09:16:02 am
Thought about a long weekend in Siurana but decided it would be irresponsible (see also Long Haul Flights thread)

Emitting some extra CO2 might be responsible - hot weather stops coronavirus..


Pedants:
(a.  I'm aware hot weather possibly doesn't stop coronavirus, and b. a joke)

AMorris

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#37 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 10:30:50 am
Death on his pale horse has trotted into Wales :wavecry:
It's been a pleasure lads

teestub

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#38 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 11:19:44 am
Death on his pale horse has trotted into Wales :wavecry:
It's been a pleasure lads

Hopefully just Pestilence on the white horse rather than the last rider!

36chambers

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#39 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 11:44:00 am
My brother's been living in China for the past 18 months. He came back to the UK for a holiday about a week before the whole thing kicked off. Having been at my parents' house for a month (or so) he's now gone back to China because he'd rather take his chances there than spend another day in Lancashire :lol:

dunnyg

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#40 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 12:09:47 pm
Understandable

AMorris

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#41 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 01:41:37 pm
As depressing as it is to say, I was waiting for this article...
https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey-finds/?fbclid=IwAR2KoE8eRmKKGiwDBNm0M1Q3WyfE3377b96w0fNGvgWjFadoTUOig3tiFMA

Though it's worth taking with a pinch of salt. Sampling bias, loaded questions etc.

petejh

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#42 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 01:51:18 pm
Though it's worth taking with a pinch of salt. Sampling bias, loaded questions etc.

And a slice of lime.

andy popp

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#43 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 10:34:19 pm
Death on his pale horse has trotted into Wales :wavecry:

By the by, there's a fantastic short novel by Katherine Anne Porter called Pale Horse, Pale Rider that focuses on the influenza epidemic of 1918/19. Most apposite reading for these times, and a simply brilliant piece of writing.

tomtom

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#44 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 28, 2020, 10:44:49 pm
Quote
The old and the sick. The current fatality rate is less than 0.5% for people under the age of 50. But it rises to 8% for people in their 70s and 15% for people over 80. Meanwhile, nearly 11% of people with diseases of the heart died when infected. As did 7% of people with diabetes and 6% of people with long-term lung problems. The average for healthy people is 0.9%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51683428

Thats really grim reading - especially having spent the day with my 80+ yo parents...

eastside

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#45 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 29, 2020, 03:55:46 pm
Quite a nice summary/comparison of Covid19 to regular Flu here
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Takehome message is regular flu has a mortality rate of c. 0.05% (US data) Covid19 ~2%

Covid19 - 5% of cases were 'critial' where "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure"

Ok, on the surface, that seems worrying. However, later in the article it says;

Quote
...in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%

So, 0.4% is higher than the flu, but significantly lower than 2%.
One explanation for the higher 2.9% in the Hubei Province could be due to higher rates of respiratory illness due to the extremely high levels of atmospheric pollution in the area. Death rates won't be so high in areas where children have seen distinct clouds

The most worrying thing to me is that if this thing truly reaches pandemic proportions, and I think that's likely at this point, it has the potential to completely overwhelm the healthcare systems worldwide. Even in first world countries we only have the capacity to provide critical care to ~0.1% of the population. If 5% of the population becomes critically ill, most of those people are just going to die as there will be no way to properly care for them. We only have so many ventilators for example, so if you need one that isn't available because they're all already in use, you're screwed. With this in mind it may well be that the later cases will have a higher mortality than earlier cases as the earlier cases are more likely to actually get proper care.

tomtom

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#46 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 29, 2020, 07:12:02 pm
I think one of the main reasons for trying to slow the spread of the virus is so the impact is spread over a few months on a health system - rather than all happen at once.

I was reading the personal account of a Chinese man (20 something) in Wuhan who has recovered - but was amazed to read that despite being self quarantined he still had 2-3 ct scans, was given retrovirals and anti HIV drugs and IV antibiotics that probably cleared up his lung problems.

That’s a high level of treatment from a stretched Chinese healthcare system.  would that happen in the UK - or US - esp of c.20% of the population have no healthcare??

andy popp

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#47 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 29, 2020, 07:23:24 pm
US - esp of c.20% of the population have no healthcare??

The un- or underinsured in the US are, almost by definition, more likely to be poor, in more insecure employment, and with very few resources on which to fall back. They are probably much more likely to ignore symptoms, delay seeing a doctor, and to continue going to work when they feel sick. Not a good recipe.

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#48 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 29, 2020, 08:08:34 pm
It’s already “escaped” hasn’t it. Too many unexplained cases, too many undiagnosed wandering around.

tomtom

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#49 Re: Coronavirus Covid-19
February 29, 2020, 08:32:04 pm
It’s already “escaped” hasn’t it. Too many unexplained cases, too many undiagnosed wandering around.

I think so. 1000 cases in Italy. Close to a thousand new ones in SKorea today. God knows how many in Iran....

 

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