[Murph]

Hi sean, sorry to hear youve been struck with it and your friend's grandma. Wishing you and yours all the best in the circumstances.

I hadnt read the paper. Downloaded it now and skimmed and will have a look if/when parenting duties allow. 

That said, I can see the red green graph is front and centre in the paper too - with employment level on the y axis. I still cant see how that is robust at all or a sensible measure. Some places were more or less doubling in size every ten years while US pop growth was far more modest. I dont think anyone is claiming that the doubling happened *because* of the measures - the mortality rates on the x axis are really too low to have made much difference (which is surprising because I understood spanish flu to have been much worse than that) so any effect of the pandemic or the response appear to be small relative to those bigger trends.
 
I dont think theres much of a way of controlling for the west-coast-is-different issue to be honest. But once you take those outliers out you get a very different line of best fit. I'm putting the graph below again just for anyone else interested, but that downward sloping line of fit looks to me like it would be more or less horizontal if we removed just the 5 cities with employment (population?) growth of more than 50%.



Not sure the relevance of chart 16. Those were all, far as I know, reasonably isolated and nothing like this. The supply shock->demand shock feedback loop is going to unravel in interesting ways that have never been tested before. Who is buying a car or moving home or getting the bathroom extended etc at a time like this and I cant see how that comes to a halt suddenly. It's taken 12 years for wages to get back to pre credit crunch levels and that was just a made up thing. This thing is serious.

Anyway all very academic. Breaks my heart what's going on and the inadequate or inconsistent response. Scottish medical chief going to her second home - albeit reasonably close by and not like gme's new London neighbours - things like that specifically but more general poor compliance appall me to be honest and they do not give hope. All we have to do is stay the fuck inside but there are thousands going to Cornwall and apparently it's not legal for the police to tell people going to curbar to stay at home. And people are dieing as a result. It's disgusting.

[gme]

I still can’t see any sign of this rapid deterioration of things in Holland. In fact the opposite appears to be happening and things there seam to be remaining pretty static including deaths.   
Yet we are the ones shouting for tighter measures.

[Will Hunt]

Have I missed something? When the Netherlands' lockdown was described it sounded very similar to ours.

[Murph]

Contrarily to what some might think what is in place is a pretty effective yet not restrictive voluntary lockdown. Basically all social contact has come to a standstill. Gatherings of more than 3 people are not allowed. Walking, surfing, cycling, running, walking the dog is allowed. Just keep your distance. No need to get upset over people doing stuff outside where it is not possible to infect others! Big parking lots at very popular outdoor venues have closed or will close during the weekend. Schools have been closed for 3 weeks now, bit kids are still allowed to play together outside. Work and travel is still not restricted, but people are asked to stay home, which has a huge effect.

It sounds like quite a less restrictive version of what we've got Will. Those journey numbers seem to indicate 2/3 or so the reduction we have had.

Gavin - your holiday home neighbours. Do you approve or not? I'm not sure. It does sound quite nice where you are so I could see the appeal...

Edit - that wasnt supposed to be challenging or unkind btw, just interested in your view as you brought it up sort of factually earlier.

[remus]

Have I missed something? When the Netherlands' lockdown was described it sounded very similar to ours.

With the differences in reporting Im wary of putting too much stock in these numbers, but the current numbers from https://www.google.com/covid19-map/ are

country, population, cases, deaths

UK, 66 million, 47800, 4932
NL, 17 million, 17851, 1766

So UK is at 724 cases / million and 74.7 deaths / million. NL is 1022 cases / million and 103 deaths / million. I think it's a push to say the Netherlands is doing particularly well, though of course the proof will be in where we are in 12 months time and you can make a better guess of weighing up the # deaths vs. the economic impact.

[Oldmanmatt]

Have I missed something? When the Netherlands' lockdown was described it sounded very similar to ours.

With the differences in reporting Im wary of putting too much stock in these numbers, but the current numbers from https://www.google.com/covid19-map/ are

country, population, cases, deaths

UK, 66 million, 47800, 4932
NL, 17 million, 17851, 1766

So UK is at 724 cases / million and 74.7 deaths / million. NL is 1022 cases / million and 103 deaths / million. I think it's a push to say the Netherlands is doing particularly well, though of course the proof will be in where we are in 12 months time and you can make a better guess of weighing up the # deaths vs. the economic impact.

And, it’s still too early. We won’t see a change here for a week or so and NL is a week behind us.
Every day you say the same thing GME but it’s not a day by day thing.

Even Sweden is moving to tighten up. If they do, this week, that leaves NL alone in this neck of the woods.

Come back to it after Easter Sunday, that’s meant to be our peak. When is the Dutch peak predicted? They must have modelled it just like everyone else.

[gme]

Not everyday at all and every time I am told just wait it will get worse but it isn’t.
And i repeat I am not saying they are doing better than anyone just pointing out that they seem to be following a pretty similar path, not better but importantly not worse, but without the level of restrictions we have.
At the moment they are doing better than us and even the deaths per capita measure in the UK is moving towards there’s not the other way as many of you forecast.
Only keep banging my drum as a lot of people think we have not gone far enough.

I think we have gone far enough now and just need to sit tight and deal with it. And a little bit of me thinks we went to far to start with.

[Oldmanmatt]

No mate, the point is, the deaths here, yesterday and today, are still almost exclusively people infected before our lockdown, so of course we’re still on the same curve. We won’t have even done two weeks until this coming Tuesday. Two weeks ago today was Mother’s day, which is the day that sparked the lockdown.
Up to two weeks from infection to symptoms, one to two weeks before death from onset of symptoms.
So, that’s why we’re predicted to peak next weekend and the few days after, only then should we see an effect.
Up until then, we’re experiencing the same curve, because we were under similar conditions when these people were infected.

[Will Hunt]

I suspect that Gav isn't going to get this until half the people on his street drop dead.

[gme]

Fuck you Will I very much get it. Who the fuck do you think you are mr I’m right.

Is not the idea in conversation that alternative points are made.

[Oldmanmatt]

Fuck you Will I very much get it. Who the fuck do you think you are mr I’m right.

Is not the idea in conversation that alternative points are made.

Um, Gav, this whole thing sucks big dog’s bollocks. It fucking hurts in a million ways and nobody, not even the Head Shed of frigging WHO, really knows what to do.

I mean, if I’m honest, I’m scared.
I don’t know which member(s?) of my family, or which friends or neighbours this thing might take. I don’t know if my business or my future job or my Mrs’ job will survive this.

If someone is not, at least, deeply fucking worried; they’re a psycho.

That, probably, applies to Will, too.
I, um, think, he was just making a small joke. In the face of adversity, and all that sort of stuff.

I wish you and yours all, and then some, the best.

That applies to everyone else, too.

[gme]

I am not overly stressed about it. Worried a bit about my folks as there in there 80s and a bit knackered but should be fine if they stay in. I’m following the rules and hope others are.

Like you say no one really knows how it will work out and nearly everything on here is hypothetical and based on models. I keep going back to Holland as it’s interesting as based on fact not projections, there model is at the very least doing as well as ours and I feel this should be looked at before we start implementing more rules about what we can and cannot do.

Others obviously don’t agree but I think we have a good chance of fucking yourselves up more than the virus is.  That doesn’t mean I think we should just let a load of people die as was insinuated.

[Will Hunt]

That doesn’t mean I think we should just let a load of people die as was insinuated.

That's not what was implied at all. It was an exaggerated comment intended to imply that you seem to be a bit in denial about the scale of the damage that is yet to come, perhaps because the problem has not manifested yet on a big scale in the North East.

[tomtom]

Here is an interesting article about why the antibody test might not be effective. Summary is it seems like people have very different immune system responses to CV19 (which also reflects how badly they are affected). This response (or lack of) is reflected in the amount of antibodies produced (that the test detects). Meaning that those who were asymptotic (or very weak symptoms) may not show in the test that they had it. And those are the exact people the test needs to figure out/determine.

Furthermore - this may also mean that people who had a very low response to it - could catch it again as their immune system wasn’t sufficiently stimulated. Or something like that. Interesting stuff - it’s a long way from being black and white.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/coronavirus-testing-kits-could-be-unreliable-uk-scientists-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Offwidth]

Thought this several days old news report was important (although rather buried on the Guardian scottish pages).  It claims the first UK death was Feb 28th.  Has anyone here seen anything confirming this?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/coronavirus-took-hold-in-uk-earlier-than-thought-data-reveals

[tomtom]

Thought this several days old news report was important (although rather buried on the Guardian scottish pages).  It claims the first UK death was Feb 28th.  Has anyone here seen anything confirming this?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/coronavirus-took-hold-in-uk-earlier-than-thought-data-reveals

That implies it was about 3 weeks or more before that...

[SA Chris]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-tbvaccine-explaine/explainer-how-an-old-tuberculosis-vaccine-might-help-fight-the-new-coronavirus-idUKKBN21K36K

Interesting. Worrying that people may be getting false hope, or thinking they are immune because of it.

[HaeMeS]

I keep going back to Holland as it’s interesting as based on fact not projections, there model is at the very least doing as well as ours and I feel this should be looked at before we start implementing more rules about what we can and cannot do.

Today's graph shows how Black [deaths/day] and Red [hospital admissions/day] have evolved. Not just IC-admissions, but all admissions related to COVID-19. It seems we've had our peak 6 days ago. Graphs like these may help to explain why people in the NL still aren't overly worried.

Keep in mind that the way the disease took off in each country before getting noticed and mitigated will have a big impact on (the size per capita and shape of) graphs like these. It's not just how and how fast a country responded to COVID-19 with measures that will determine the outcome of the decease. In short: data between countries cannot be compared without looking into the finer details.

I hope the measures in the UK will show effect soon.

[SA Chris]

Is a hospital really called a Ziekenhuis? "Sick house".

[andy popp]

Danish data also starting to quite strongly suggest the peak has passed here.  Exactly the moment not to get complacent I would have thought.

[petejh]

Interesting watching Holland following what appears to be something akin to the UK's previous policy (mitigate) without seeing the large increase in cases.. so far.. Plenty of time for it to change still.

Could their laxer policy be down to being able to more efficiently test and quarantine?

Their testing is not far off double the UK's, per million people:

[gme]

I keep going back to Holland as it’s interesting as based on fact not projections, there model is at the very least doing as well as ours and I feel this should be looked at before we start implementing more rules about what we can and cannot do.

Today's graph shows how Black [deaths/day] and Red [hospital admissions/day] have evolved. Not just IC-admissions, but all admissions related to COVID-19. It seems we've had our peak 6 days ago. Graphs like these may help to explain why people in the NL still aren't overly worried.

Keep in mind that the way the disease took off in each country before getting noticed and mitigated will have a big impact on (the size per capita and shape of) graphs like these. It's not just how and how fast a country responded to COVID-19 with measures that will determine the outcome of the decease. In short: data between countries cannot be compared without looking into the finer details.

I hope the measures in the UK will show effect soon.

Thanks for the update. I had just checked this on the worldometers site which shows the same.
It’s now ten days since I first started looking at the stats for the Netherlands with interest and despite being constantly shot down on here for suggesting that somehow things are going differently it still appears that they are.
I am not suggest I know why but still think that something is.
Even the deaths per 1m stat is now getting narrower in relation to others.

[gme]

Interesting watching Holland following what appears to be something akin to the UK's previous policy (mitigate) without seeing the large increase in cases.. so far.. Plenty of time for it to change still.

Could their laxer policy be down to being able to more efficiently test and quarantine?

Their testing is not far off double the UK's, per million people:

Tests per million pop. Not different though although there’s is still better.

[Stu Littlefair]

Testing by itself does nothing of course. I don’t know if NL are doing anything dramatic about case isolation?

It’s definitely the case now that things are turning around there, which is great. They did start restricting contacts a week before us, so perhaps it holds out hope that we will start to see things tail off over Easter.

It will be tempting to conclude that tighter restrictions are not necessary. HaeMes is quite right though that this needs much more careful analysis than we can do by eyeballing curves. You can guarantee that work is getting done, but to be frank even careful modelling won’t tell us the answer with confidence until after decisions need to be made.

It is so difficult.

[Muenchener]

Is a hospital really called a Ziekenhuis? "Sick house".

Natch. It's "Krankenhaus" in German.

Except in Austria where it's "Spital"