[seankenny]

Perhaps I worded my question badly, what I meant more was "what specifically about Brexit (or not fighting for Remain) was so fundamentally important to the left(er) cause, that siding with the ERG etc wingnuts was a better idea than, say giving the EU "10 out of 10" on national TV?

Ideologically, I really think it was just the desire for greater governmental control - and distrust - of markets, specifically the labour market, and greater power to intervene in industry. Maybe some of it was a historical continuation of the far left’s dislike of the EU from back in the 70s and 80s?

Culturally you could perhaps make the argument that the Lexit types were often very similar to the ERG, a group of politically marginalised but posh English men allied to a more working class base. Cranks of a feather flock together? Or at least don’t repulse each other too much.

[TobyD]

The thing is that whatever your personal opinions are on RMT and the strike,  it would be electoral suicide for Labour to get full bore behind the strikes.  Labour's strongest voting base now is younger, metropolitan liberal minded professionals in the major cities,  who are most affected by the trains not running.  If they are serious about ever winning elections again,  they need to be able to make difficult decisions which may conflict with what their ideal position would be personally,  in order to appeal to enough voters across the country to win an election and actually be able to change anything. 
Its all very well being a morally unimpeachable opposition,  but a party in opposition can't legislate,  can't usually block legislation they disagree with, and can't try to make the country a better place to live. 

[teestub]

The thing is that whatever your personal opinions are on RMT and the strike,  it would be electoral suicide for Labour to get full bore behind the strikes.  Labour's strongest voting base now is younger, metropolitan liberal minded professionals in the major cities,  who are most affected by the trains not running. 

Do you have evidence that this group is not majorly supportive of the strikes, despite being affected by them? This would seem counter to what I’ve read but have not seen any opinion polls etc.

[TobyD]

The thing is that whatever your personal opinions are on RMT and the strike,  it would be electoral suicide for Labour to get full bore behind the strikes.  Labour's strongest voting base now is younger, metropolitan liberal minded professionals in the major cities,  who are most affected by the trains not running. 

Do you have evidence that this group is not majorly supportive of the strikes, despite being affected by them? This would seem counter to what I’ve read but have not seen any opinion polls etc.

No I don't, but my point re their position stands, in order to win they are in a difficult place, but have probably done essentially the right thing, I'm not saying that I personally agree with it, but politically it's the right choice.

I'm more concerned with the fact that the Johnson government have done nothing in office, can't grip on any actual policy, and spend time on culture war bullshit. They're fundamentally bad for the country and another party needs to do whatever it can to get rid of them.

[Falling Down]

The thing is that whatever your personal opinions are on RMT and the strike,  it would be electoral suicide for Labour to get full bore behind the strikes.  Labour's strongest voting base now is younger, metropolitan liberal minded professionals in the major cities,  who are most affected by the trains not running. 

Do you have evidence that this group is not majorly supportive of the strikes, despite being affected by them? This would seem counter to what I’ve read but have not seen any opinion polls etc.

I work with a lot of young liberal minded professionals and none of them batted an eyelid this week. They just fired up Teams/Zoom and worked from home. It’s the people who work in retail, hospitality and hands-on service jobs who were most inconvenienced.

On the Lexit thing, I thought what happened to Greece was a big factor in Left Wing opposition to the EU.

[TobyD]

The thing is that whatever your personal opinions are on RMT and the strike,  it would be electoral suicide for Labour to get full bore behind the strikes.  Labour's strongest voting base now is younger, metropolitan liberal minded professionals in the major cities,  who are most affected by the trains not running. 

Do you have evidence that this group is not majorly supportive of the strikes, despite being affected by them? This would seem counter to what I’ve read but have not seen any opinion polls etc.

I work with a lot of young liberal minded professionals and none of them batted an eyelid this week. They just fired up Teams/Zoom and worked from home. It’s the people who work in retail, hospitality and hands-on service jobs who were most inconvenienced.

On the Lexit thing, I thought what happened to Greece was a big factor in Left Wing opposition to the EU.

Maybe but look at an electoral map of the country, Labour in the cities mainly, and the Conservative in the more rural areas and most towns.

[Wellsy]

I feel like a strong communicator could put together a pretty simple and comprehensive message about why the Labour Party supports worker's right to strike which would appeal to a broad range of people.

I appreciate why Starmer is hedging his bets but he's not exactly storming out with a powerful message about this strike being symptomatic of the deep failures in the country's governance and economy.

"We would nationalise the rail systems and therefore avoid any need for strikes, we'd improve services and cut costs by taking out the need to fill the pockets of shareholders" etc that would all sound pretty good. He doesn't need to come across as a firebrand just sensible.

[Moo]

What you're saying wells sounds perfectly sensible to me, but I'm sure some people would stamp him as a firebrand for saying exactly such a thing. In the current climate he's got to walk an extremely tenuous tightrope to avoid pissing off a very broad range of people who could potentially vote his way.

Of course one of the risks he takes in treading such a line is that he ends up appealing to no one and the lib dems and greens win big time.

[seankenny]

The thing is that whatever your personal opinions are on RMT and the strike,  it would be electoral suicide for Labour to get full bore behind the strikes.  Labour's strongest voting base now is younger, metropolitan liberal minded professionals in the major cities,  who are most affected by the trains not running. 

Do you have evidence that this group is not majorly supportive of the strikes, despite being affected by them? This would seem counter to what I’ve read but have not seen any opinion polls etc.

It’s not the median Labour voter that’s the issue but the marginal Labour voter. They after all are the people Labour needs to get into power.

[BrutusTheBear]

Latest Opinium Poll today:-
70% support inflation level pay rise
62% think government should intervene
70% against cuts to rail staff
84% for  investing rail profits in maintaining staff
59% workers right to strike if talks fail

There's not really a thin line to tread here get on board the people are pushing back.  Read the room Keir and Co. The lack of support will and is already being seen as weakness.

[seankenny]

Last night I re-read this interesting interview with US pollster/election strategist David Shor:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/david-shor-cancel-culture-2020-election-theory-polls.html

This could of course go in the US politics thread but I think some of the core ideas around issue salience are worth considering in the British context. It's probably easier just to read the article than me do a garbled re-hash, but Shor says this on attracting non-college-educated white voters:

"Democrats need to talk about the issues they are with us on, and try really hard not to talk about the issues where we disagree."

Amyhow, I figured it was worth a read.

As to Labour and the RMT strike, being too vocal in support offers the Conservatives a potential wedge issue with unionised vs non-unionised workers and the response to inflation which is potentially bad news for Labour, given that it probably wants to increase its vote share amongst non-unionised workers (who are also a much bigger proportion of the labour market). I support the strike action and don't think the claims are excessive, but I'm also aware that many of the voters Labour would like to win are older and are in the middle of a 70s rerun freak-out. I suspect the suggestion that Labour are stoking a wage price spiral would not go down well with those voters, added to the fact that a wage price spiral would be genuinely bad news. (I don't think the strike will cause this but so what, I'm a voter in a safe Labour seat and my trust in UK monetary policy is perhaps a bit higher than average.)

Maybe this is the elevation of tactics over strategy, I don't know. I just don't think it's as obvious a call as all that.

[TobyD]

The thing is that whatever your personal opinions are on RMT and the strike,  it would be electoral suicide for Labour to get full bore behind the strikes.  Labour's strongest voting base now is younger, metropolitan liberal minded professionals in the major cities,  who are most affected by the trains not running. 

Do you have evidence that this group is not majorly supportive of the strikes, despite being affected by them? This would seem counter to what I’ve read but have not seen any opinion polls etc.

It’s not the median Labour voter that’s the issue but the marginal Labour voter. They after all are the people Labour needs to get into power.

Exactly.  Labour needs to be seen as financially responsible,  strong on law and order, but fair on both.  Keir Starmer doesn't have to be exciting,  or wildly popular.  Against Johnson,  he just needs to be less unpopular than him. Only by appealing to a broad range of socially conservative voters can they win, and be able to actually do anything. 

[chris j]

"We would nationalise the rail systems and therefore avoid any need for strikes, we'd improve services and cut costs by taking out the need to fill the pockets of shareholders" etc that would all sound pretty good.

If only there was a north west European country with a left of centre government that had recently nationalised its rail service that could be used to test this argument...

[mrjonathanr]

  Keir Starmer doesn't have to be exciting,  or wildly popular.  Against Johnson,  he just needs to be less unpopular than him.

Or less unpopular than Hunt, or whoever leads the Tories into the next election; it may not be Johnson.

[Moo]

Is any one else finding a breathe of fresh air in Mick Lynch cutting through the media chaff. I'm impressed that he's been able to make arguments extending to broader issues than the current disputes at hand quite often in a way that politicians often seem to struggle with.

[BrutusTheBear]

Yes Moo.  See previous page.
Also equally unimpressed with David Lammy's flagrant hypocrisy/lack of political conviction and subsequent half arsed roll back.  LP in desperate need of a front bencher with a spine.

[danm]

I don't think you can compare a union leader and a politician as though they are equivalent and can say and do the same things, because they are completely different beasts. A unions job is to negotiate and if necessary strike in order to get what is fair for their members. A politicians job is to get into government and ideally manage well enough so that strikes etc are not necessary. At least, that's what a Labour gov should do, a Tory one will provoke strikes as part of their culture war agenda.

So yeah, I think Labour are doing the right thing by holding back their support to avoid playing into Tory hands and looking once again like a party of protest rather than of government. Instead of focusing on strikes, focusing on the economic clusterfuck caused by the Tories which is making them an issue. Lammy was pretty good I thought about apologising for getting his facts wrong and calling it half arsed missed the point - wake up and smell the coffee, we are sliding into fascism so stop wailing about Labour not being Left enough and focus on getting these Tories out by hook or by crook. At this stage I'd take May or Major so Lammy, Rayner and Starmer would be an upgrade on that.

[mrjonathanr]

No I don't, but my point re their position stands, in order to win they are in a difficult place, but have probably done essentially the right thing, I'm not saying that I personally agree with it, but politically it's the right choice.

This, tho it demands tact in the way it’s put across and it didn’t read that way re Lammy’s Sunday interview. I didn’t see it, so who knows. The Tories will think do/dont support the strikers  is a wonderful trap. Labour need to be fleetfooted on that.

[TobyD]

I don't think you can compare a union leader and a politician as though they are equivalent and can say and do the same things, because they are completely different beasts. A unions job is to negotiate and if necessary strike in order to get what is fair for their members. A politicians job is to get into government and ideally manage well enough so that strikes etc are not necessary. At least, that's what a Labour gov should do, a Tory one will provoke strikes as part of their culture war agenda.

So yeah, I think Labour are doing the right thing by holding back their support to avoid playing into Tory hands and looking once again like a party of protest rather than of government. Instead of focusing on strikes, focusing on the economic clusterfuck caused by the Tories which is making them an issue. Lammy was pretty good I thought about apologising for getting his facts wrong and calling it half arsed missed the point - wake up and smell the coffee, we are sliding into fascism so stop wailing about Labour not being Left enough and focus on getting these Tories out by hook or by crook. At this stage I'd take May or Major so Lammy, Rayner and Starmer would be an upgrade on that.

Agree with most of that really.  I'd rather Labour were stronger on the massive ongoing costs to the UK of leaving the EU and the single market,  however I understand why they're keeping quiet and at this stage I'd rather have a stuffed donkey than Boris Johnson and his bunch of intellectually challenged halfwits in charge. 

[slab_happy]

"It's not your children, it's a treehouse":

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1542783683492515840

[TobyD]

Every time you think there's no chance Johnson can survive this scandal, he manages it somewhere. Surely his time must be almost up? Seems almost inevitable that pincher will have to quit and cause a by-election now.

[Will Hunt]

I can't understand why No10 hasn't become better at managing stuff like this. You'd think that after all the previous times the PM has been caught lying they'd catch on that it's better to tell the truth straight up and put the right spin on it from the get go. But no, the PM lies again, gets caught lying again, and now the story is so much bigger than just Pincher again.

They could have chucked Pincher under the bus and escaped relatively unscathed. I'm amazed his aides let Johnson into the Commons chamber when they know he can't help buy Lie To Parliament when he's there (not that that offence has any penalty any more).

[sdm]

I think it's intentional to let it become bigger and more drawn out than it needed it be.

It occupies the headlines for a news cycle and distracts people from the failings that are having a far greater impact on people's lives.

Johnson has admitted to using this tactic in interviews previously.

[Bradders]

Sunak and Javid resign; surely, surely this is it for Johnson now. Surely. Please!

[edshakey]

Of all the times he's seemed utterly screwed, this is definitely seems the most utterly screwed he's been.

Amazing the ministers still supporting him. It's the usual crackpot list but at some point, surely they try to save face. Raab getting regularly stitched up on TV? He must be fed up by now. They certainly will be doing damage to their careers given how inevitable Johnson's departure seems.