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Politics 2020 (Read 216744 times)

SA Chris

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#2100 Re: Politics 2020
May 27, 2022, 11:50:23 am
You thought it couldn't get cringier than Gove's Scouse accent.

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2022/05/27/nadine-dorries-raps-about-online-safety/

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#2101 Re: Politics 2020
May 27, 2022, 01:19:44 pm
Oh. Good. God.

Just when you thought Nadine Dorris couldn't discredit herself with the sector any more....

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#2102 Re: Politics 2020
May 27, 2022, 02:35:10 pm
Nadine Dorries? A rap? You had my hopes so high.

Quite apart from the bill being crap, that wasn't that bad, and it pains me to say that because Nadine Dorries can normally be relied upon to be horrendous at every turn.


JamieG

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#2104 Re: Politics 2020
May 27, 2022, 05:56:09 pm
Hard to believe it's not actually an onion article. Satire is truly dead!

This was the best bit.

"Johnson has also rewritten the foreword to the code, removing all references to honesty, integrity, transparency and accountability."

Tells you everything really.

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#2105 Re: Politics 2020
May 27, 2022, 10:23:24 pm
Hard to believe it's not actually an onion article. Satire is truly dead!

This was the best bit.

"Johnson has also rewritten the foreword to the code, removing all references to honesty, integrity, transparency and accountability."

Tells you everything really.

"Man caught obviously lying repeatedly changes rules to say lying is kind of more or less ok really ". Does that cover it?

SA Chris

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#2106 Re: Politics 2020
May 30, 2022, 08:19:03 am
Pretty much.

Also, none if us are capable of working from home because when Boris does it he is distracted by cheese

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/14/boris-johnson-urges-more-people-to-return-to-office-working

slab_happy

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#2107 Re: Politics 2020
May 30, 2022, 10:58:34 am
https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1530804558909390848

I am morbidly fascinated by what the "very specific term" is. People in replies are citing a Daily Mail column to suggest it's "The Gays", but that seems to be the term she uses to refer to aides, not personal friends.

These are such grim people.

slab_happy

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#2108 Re: Politics 2020
May 30, 2022, 02:18:23 pm
Nope, "The Gays" it is, according to the Torygraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/29/gays-new-revelations-carrie-johnson-gathering-boris-birthday/

I mean, call your friends whatever shit you're all okay with, but she also apparently kept calling the aides that even though some of them were very uncomfortable with it. Top tip: it's not cute and ironic when it's making people cringe. Especially not when they're your husband's staff and can't tell you to piss off.

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#2109 Re: Politics 2020
May 30, 2022, 10:27:07 pm
Nope, "The Gays" it is, according to the Torygraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/29/gays-new-revelations-carrie-johnson-gathering-boris-birthday/

I mean, call your friends whatever shit you're all okay with, but she also apparently kept calling the aides that even though some of them were very uncomfortable with it. Top tip: it's not cute and ironic when it's making people cringe. Especially not when they're your husband's staff and can't tell you to piss off.

Vindictive playing of ABBA songs in relation to the disposal of advisers, unreconstructed references to minorities... not really fitting with the badger hugging eco friendly image is it?

slab_happy

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#2110 Re: Politics 2020
May 31, 2022, 08:47:59 am
Given all the rumours that she's the one who leaned on Johnson over the Nowzad evacuation (which are credble because I cannot imagine Johnson giving the slightest fuck about animals), I think she's exactly the kind of badger-hugging "conservationist" who thinks that cute animals are much more important than Afghan humans, and also thinks that she's terribly forward-thinking and modern because she has Token Gay Friends, whose defining trait in her head is that they are The Gays.

Every girl has to have a Sassy Gay Best Friend as an accessory, after all, this is what we've learned from TV.

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#2111 Re: Politics 2020
June 03, 2022, 04:54:17 pm
In case anyone else would enjoy watching Johnson getting boo-ed by the crowd at St Paul's:

https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1532660093489119233

And on the way out, too:

https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1532722094752030720

TobyD

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#2112 Re: Politics 2020
June 03, 2022, 11:09:36 pm
In case anyone else would enjoy watching Johnson getting boo-ed by the crowd at St Paul's:

https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1532660093489119233

And on the way out, too:

https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1532722094752030720

Blimey,  he seems to be as popular there as Prince Andrew would have been if he didn't have covid.  However,  unfortunately given that it's in London,  that's probably what you'd expect,  and there will still be many  people elsewhere who think he's ok for reasons I cannot fathom.  Hopefully the sentiment in Wakefield,  and East Devon is not in his favour. 

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#2113 Re: Politics 2020
June 10, 2022, 06:38:15 pm
The Economist pulling no punches on the outlook for the U.K. in today’s editorial:


“The idea that Britain has a growth problem is not new. But few realise how deep a hole it is in. Whereas average annual gdp growth over the decade preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-09 was 2.7%, the new normal is now closer to just 1.7%…

“The oecd predicts that next year gdp in Britain will be stagnant. Official forecasts show that real take-home pay will be lower in five years than it is today, eaten away by higher taxes and consumer-price inflation that, at 9%, is the highest among big rich economies.”


https://archive.ph/2022.06.09-133233/https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/06/09/low-economic-growth-is-a-slow-burning-crisis-for-britain


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#2114 Re: Politics 2020
June 10, 2022, 11:04:10 pm
The Economist pulling no punches on the outlook for the U.K. in today’s editorial:


“The idea that Britain has a growth problem is not new. But few realise how deep a hole it is in. Whereas average annual gdp growth over the decade preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-09 was 2.7%, the new normal is now closer to just 1.7%…

“The oecd predicts that next year gdp in Britain will be stagnant. Official forecasts show that real take-home pay will be lower in five years than it is today, eaten away by higher taxes and consumer-price inflation that, at 9%, is the highest among big rich economies.”


https://archive.ph/2022.06.09-133233/https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/06/09/low-economic-growth-is-a-slow-burning-crisis-for-britain

The New Statesman published a detailed article a few  weeks ago, on the reasons why although inflation is a global issue,  in the UK it is likely to be worse, and last longer. I don't have a link handy as I read the print copy,  but I'm sure its easily searched for on their website. 

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#2115 Re: Politics 2020
June 10, 2022, 11:39:39 pm
This wasn't the one I originally thought of,  but is also worth reading if you're interested in economic and business policy
https://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2022/06/business-newsletter-ostrich-economy-headed-for-reckoning

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#2116 Re: Politics 2020
June 12, 2022, 11:27:31 am
Inflation genuinely worries me, tbh.

I fear for the future of the country. While I'm a lefty and amongst my circle patriotism or whatever you want to call it is pretty uncool, on some level I do love my country and can't help but feel concerned for what's happening. It's going to be a hard winter for a lot of people

petejh

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#2117 Re: Politics 2020
June 12, 2022, 01:01:47 pm
I've been reading about this subject a few times per month every month since around 2019-20. A lot of commentators have been suggesting a stagflationary economy* in most of the west looks like the most likely outcome within the next 6-12 months and lasting for from 1 - 3 years.  Most notably the US and European economies - Australia and Canada likely to be relatively the strongest due to their resource-heavy economies. But it's easy to call these things when some people have been calling 10 out of the last 2 downturns.

One of the issues this time around the block seems to be the lack of any headroom for central banks to fight inflation due to the unprecedented levels of government debt. Interest rates in the US can't increase beyond a maximum of approx. 3.5 - 4.5% without meaning debt repayments bankrupt the country. But interest rate rises are needed to fight inflation, and so central banks appear to be in an impossible dilemma. The cynical view suggests inflation is being 'allowed' to run higher for a period of time in order to devalue the west's gigantic debt, which in turn might allow for higher interest rates in future to fight longer-term inflation. The more conspiratorial views - ranging from plausible to bonkers - suggest some kind of global economic 'reset' is imminent which will write-off debts and transfer wealth from the public to the state. I've no opinion on this.

Bigger picture is the global transition to electrification and lower-carbon power-generation, requiring massive base metal resources and processing capacity, in a world of reduced global trade with Russia and China (which owns large parts of the means of producing a low-carbon electrified world), as China signals it will take back Taiwan and continues to supress dissent. Meaning the west pivots away from reliance on Chinese resources and processing as per Russian resources. Hard to see anything but economic turmoil and downturn for a period of time in that environment. Hopefully something better eventually emerges from the resource battles.


* Stagflation defined as subsequent quarters with: 1. rising unemployment, 2. weakening growth, 3. inflation higher than a 10-year average. Much of the west currently experiencing #2 and #3. Unemployment could begin rising later this year.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2022, 01:22:32 pm by petejh »

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#2118 Re: Politics 2020
June 12, 2022, 02:50:49 pm
Although we are clearly entering a period of low growth and higher than target inflation, I’m not convinced that stagflation is a likely outcome. Still could happen of course but doesn’t feel massively likely. 

This Bloomberg article gives a good roundup of this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-10/world-economy-can-avoid-1970s-rerun-but-not-without-some-hurt

Tl;dr better policy making, v different structural issues since the 70s, eg it’s hard to have a wage price spiral in a very un-unionised economy.

Clearly it’s going to be very hard for a lot of people for some time, but in the medium to long term I’m much more concerned about persistent low growth, as it’s much harder to do anything about. Engineering a small recession to get inflation back to its target strikes me as easier than building more houses or better infrastructure. If you’ve got kids, you should despair for them unless there is some change in this respect.

Pete - what’s your source for the suggested US interest rate upper bound?

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#2119 Re: Politics 2020
June 12, 2022, 03:44:02 pm

Pete - what’s your source for the suggested US interest rate upper bound?

Written in autumn 2011 as a commentary on the policies following the global financial crash and a warning of where they might take the economy. Republished spring of this year.

https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/inflation-and-debt

It doesn't go into details of the upper bound. I've read that elsewhere but struggling to find the source.

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#2120 Re: Politics 2020
June 13, 2022, 02:00:07 pm
Quote
Quote from: seankenny on Yesterday at 03:50:49 pm

Pete - what’s your source for the suggested US interest rate upper bound?

Written in autumn 2011 as a commentary on the policies following the global financial crash and a warning of where they might take the economy. Republished spring of this year.

https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/inflation-and-debt

It doesn't go into details of the upper bound. I've read that elsewhere but struggling to find the source.

This video is worth a watch as to why the FED are stuck with respect to rate hikes as a means to taming the current inflation.



Basically servicing the debt would become impossible and the level of US govt debt, unfunded liabilities and consumer debt is multiples of GDP.

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#2121 Re: Politics 2020
June 13, 2022, 05:31:17 pm
Thanks… but I’m honestly not going to watch a video about this sort of thing, prefer to read it, it’s just too time consuming to wade through a video. Also my heckles are raised by a crypto dude who I invariably assume is shilling. Sorry!

Edit: realise that comes across a bit arsey, but I struggle with video as a medium for putting across information that would be better written.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2022, 05:59:18 pm by seankenny »

petejh

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#2122 Re: Politics 2020
June 13, 2022, 11:49:28 pm
I share your distrust of anyone talking on youtube about crypto. But the guy in the vid is just saying the same thing in layman's terms, as the writer of the article I linked from 2011. It's a fairly basic concept - the west has issued too much government debt and there's also too much corporate and personal debt, to raise rates beyond a point around 3.5% - 5% (although the article doesn't mention that range, the bro in the vid does) due to the devastating consequences this would have on the economy. The 70s didn't have this environment of high national debt as a proportion of GDP.
The assumption is that central banks do know this, and are signalling the rises they're signalling this year in the hope that the signalling, along with the beginnings of rate rises, are enough to spook the economy into a slowdown which puts the brakes on inflation, without central banks *actually* having to go through with the full extent of the rises signalled (~3%+ by 2023). They know they have to stop short of rising beyond that point (which is what would be required to actually stop inflation, like Volker's rises to double digits in the 80s) because it would completely destroy the economy and put the west into a deep prolonged depression.
The assumption by many commentators also seems to be that central banks will pivot away from the current QT pathway, in response to market turmoil, to printing even yet more money and taking on even more debt because TINA. This ends, according to the popular theory that everyone and their dog now seems to be waiting for, in a complete meltdown of the dollar sometime in the 2020s. Probably associated with a China/US conflict, new variant wave, or some other black swan to blame it on. It's not even a remotely leftfield theory anymore, when idiots like me are spewing it on ukb(lack swans).

BTW the Bloomberg forecast you linked to got it spot on for their May US inflation forecast. Lets hope they're right going forwards.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2022, 11:59:43 pm by petejh »

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#2123 Re: Politics 2020
June 14, 2022, 09:32:31 am
Thanks… but I’m honestly not going to watch a video about this sort of thing, prefer to read it, it’s just too time consuming to wade through a video. Also my heckles are raised by a crypto dude who I invariably assume is shilling. Sorry!

Edit: realise that comes across a bit arsey, but I struggle with video as a medium for putting across information that would be better written.

Sorry, I was going to put a caveat about this guy mainly being a crypto guy (bro) but actually this video doesn't really mention crypto and I thought it was a good summary in simple terms of the current debt burden but I understand if you prefer to read about it.

Traditionally there is meant to be a sweet spot for a country to only hold debts that are 70% of GDP so it is serviceable. The US government debt is currently 130% of GDP but the private debt is 370% of GDP! The current debt and unfunded liabilities are almost $1 million dollars per citizen, whereby each citizen would have to pay $30k extra in taxes just to service the interest for this year. In other words it is unsustainable and the US will never be able to grow it's way out of it. The same is true for other countries. Adding rate hikes into the mix and servicing maturing debts and new debt that roll over into new rates will be impossible. My guess it that the FED will have to pivot before the end of the year to stop a debt spiral as most of the collateral is also tanking in dollar terms in parallel.

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#2124 Re: Politics 2020
June 15, 2022, 01:19:37 pm
Just watched this from Bernie Sanders
Shortly after dipping in on this thread. It would be amazing to see some real change in the us. However, I think things will have to get a lot worse first..

https://www.instagram.com/tv/Cey4IVKjxqk/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

 

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