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Politics 2023 (Read 465886 times)

BrutusTheBear

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#850 Re: Politics 2020
April 14, 2021, 09:30:02 pm
SK that's a cheap caricature of Labour under JC.  The giant swing in Labour's favour, the close call to a dangerous socialist government, Ian McNichol and Co. shitting themselves weren't caused by people chanting a name and going on about Palestine.  If only it were that easy.. (Many people worked very hard to make that result happen). (Many people worked very hard to prevent it to).

To be clear, I am not advocating for Starmer to go, I just have an inkling that he will after the elections in May.  A year isn't enough for anyone.

I'm waiting for the 'mask to come off' (his words), see what he has beyond competence and being a likeable chap. I hope the LP can pull off a victory at the next GE but I don't think the current approach will achieve that. Time will tell.

Good to see Starmer following up on the whole dodgy Dave's dodgy dealings thing today. Interesting to see where this goes and how hard it is persued.

Conservative rule appears to be the way of things here, with the rare circumstance induced Labour government here and there. 


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#851 Re: Politics 2020
April 14, 2021, 09:46:00 pm
Where did you grow up Matt?

Devon, until 75, North Cornwall from 75 to 89.
Dad was a Gas turbine Engineer with Centrax until the industry collapse ~70/71, so became a copper on his redundancy. I think the salary nadir, really bit around 76. My Grandfather was Foreman at a Foundry in Exeter then, which went under at that time.
However, most of my father’s family were from Coventry and the “Boss”, Gran Glover (Romany gypsy/My Great-grandmother) still ruled from her little terrace front room, into the early 80s...
Anyway, weird family. Dad very working class, mum was very middle/tea parties at Buck house/daddy senior mason class.
Put it this way, my dad was a copper who’d left school at 15 to become an engineering apprentice and mum was an artist, painting commissions of stately homes and dragging us from gallery to gallery around the country, wherever she was “showing” that week...
(You should have felt the tension when dad was deployed for the miners strike)...

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#852 Re: Politics 2020
April 14, 2021, 10:38:20 pm
Thanks. We are a similar age, but different localities. Interesting what you say about Tory being the main allegiance of your circle. Maybe that is quite common to forces personnel? And the South West- a Tory-LibDem split I think? I suspect many like me who grew up in Liverpool through the 80s are very disinclined to vote Tory.

TobyD

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#853 Re: Politics 2020
April 15, 2021, 12:30:16 am

Labour will always be at a disadvantage to the Tories, because the Tories will do and say what ever it takes to get into power, have few principles beyond a belief in their own superiority and Labour will self immolate at the slightest hint of deviation from ideological purity (which each faction sees constantly in every other faction).

Whereas the conservative party constantly seems in grave danger of doing this; being riven by probably even more contested opinions than labour.  But it always manages to sublimate or otherwise stamp on infighting when the issue of retaining or gaining power becomes important.  Johnson managed it by simply removing the whip from rebels but he wont be able to do that again. 
They have largely neutered their perennial source of fights by leaving the EU,  but will have significant problems from many of the same people over foreign policy,  levelling up etc.

Starmer has had an unspectacular but competent year  in my opinion.  He did take over after the party's worst results in a century so he has had a pretty difficult job to do.  He has dealt with antisemitism as a live issue very effectively,  and has a good front bench team.

Re Brutus' recommendation of Zara Sultana, she has a tiny majority on her constituency,  she has a well evidenced record of rather dubious social media posts before and after selection as a candidate,  and has less than 2 years experience as an MP.  I can't see what role you think she might be suitable for,  unless you're just saying you like her political slant.

ali k

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#854 Re: Politics 2020
April 15, 2021, 07:10:31 am
I am not advocating for Starmer to go, I just have an inkling that he will after the elections in May.  A year isn't enough for anyone.
What makes you think he’ll go? Aside from some fairly minor grumblings from certain factions I don’t see much evidence of an appetite to remove him. And I don’t think it’s fair to judge him based on Labour’s performance in May. These results were pretty much ‘baked in’ already. You mentioned Hartlepool as an indicator - a classic Brexit supporting ‘red wall’ area where UKIP had over 25% share of the vote last time. Given that the Tories have delivered exactly what voters there asked for and UKIP are no more, those votes are only going one way and it’s not back to Labour. How on earth could Starmer have turned that around in a year?

Quote
I hope the LP can pull off a victory at the next GE but I don't think the current approach will achieve that. Time will tell.
Brutus, let’s be honest about the situation Labour is in. Unless the Tories self-destruct in the next year or two there is very little chance of a Labour victory at the next GE under any leader or with any approach. If Labour make any gains at the next GE I would see that as a victory - so dire is the situation Starmer inherited.

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#855 Re: Politics 2020
April 15, 2021, 07:51:32 am
Quite a few posts have alluded to the long amount of time to the next GE - due in 2024 under the fixed term parliaments act. Its a common view in the wider commentariat. The FTP Act specifies a fixed 5 year term for parliaments and was brought in by the coalition gov elected in 2010. Since then general elections have been in:

2015, 2017, 2019

You do the maths.

Current gov has also (in December 2020) proposed a repeal bill of the FTP Act, which will pass - huge gov majority plus its in Labour's last manifesto to repeal also.

All told, it don't mean shit - next GE will be at the time of the PM's choosing...


ali k

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#856 Re: Politics 2020
April 15, 2021, 07:56:57 am
Absolutely. May 2023 is the latest betting

BrutusTheBear

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#857 Re: Politics 2020
April 15, 2021, 09:37:28 am
I think Starmer will go because of increasing pressure post May elections. (I don't have a crystal ball, it's pure conjecture and of course I could be completely wrong.  It is OK to be wrong sometimes right or will I get slayed if I'm wrong?)
TD Zarah was not a serious suggestion, I like her, there are very few MPs that I would politically align myself with so my pool of choice is somewhat limited.
Quote
Not many of her ilk around and I know just how unlikely, anyone like this, is to become leader.

Let's be really honest about the situation in this country.  The odds are and always have been hugely in favour of Torries and Tory values whilst being heavily stacked against any Labour government with the slightest socialist tendencies.

Matt I'm not too far off 50 myself and my family are from Neath in South Wales. One of my grandfather's was a barber (he died in his 40s) and the other coal miner, fireman (he attended Aberfan and was affected by this experience for life) and latterly a steel worker. My parents 'escaped' to England in the early 70s, my father worked in local government and my mother worked in a supermarket. I attended a very Liberal Steiner style Catholic secondary school (weird I know! ).  I don't know many people who would vote Conservative. 

ali k

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#858 Re: Politics 2020
April 15, 2021, 10:09:01 am
Let's be really honest about the situation in this country.  The odds are and always have been hugely in favour of Torries and Tory values whilst being heavily stacked against any Labour government with the slightest socialist tendencies.
Yep. Unfortunately you're spot on. Which is why I'd rather Labour give themselves at least a fighting chance of getting back into power by appealing to the middle ground voters, which has been the only winning formula so far. That's despite probably sharing the same values as you. From what you've posted on here I'm sure we'd have very similar views of how we'd like the world and our politics to be. We just have different views of how best to get there and I think it's a mistake to read too much into what happened in 2017, even if a lot of people worked hard towards it. I think Labour regaining the middle ground and then drifting leftwards over time, taking the electorate with them, is more likely to be succesful than tacking even further left now and hoping that voters suddenly 'see the light'.

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#859 Re: Politics 2020
April 15, 2021, 10:19:39 am
I think Starmer will go because of increasing pressure post May elections.


TD Zarah was not a serious suggestion, I like her, there are very few MPs that I would politically align myself with so my pool of choice is somewhat limited.


I find this hard to believe as a realistic possibility,  if you look at previous opposition leaders who have later won office; most recently David Cameron,  they experienced very similar high popularity followed by a significant period of decline in popularity. 
I think that in the middle of last year Starmer had higher ratings than any previous opposition leader other than Tony Blair,  so he has farther to fall than most.


Let's be really honest about the situation in this country.  The odds are and always have been hugely in favour of Torries and Tory values whilst being heavily stacked against any Labour government with the slightest socialist tendencies.
If Labour stopped fighting itself so bitterly it would have a much better chance. 
If socialist tendencies means a Corbyn era style manifesto,  then the reason that the odds are stacked against it is because most people will never vote for it.
The constant references by the likes of Owen Jones to 2017 always fail to remember that they were up against a ludicrously unpopular opponent,  who intoned tremulously that nothing has changed in lieu of any campaign message,  at her most prominent speech the signs fell apart behind her, and most of the press railed against her flagship policy and labelled it dementia tax. Even given all that, Theresa May won.

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#860 Re: Politics 2020
April 15, 2021, 11:55:11 am
I don’t think it either unfair or far from the mark, to describe Labour as a party of idealists, with broadly good (even great) intentions (as opposed to Tories, who essentially preach selfishness as a virtue).

There in lies the issue. Labour are trying to sell an ideological position that, whilst they may desire such a world, the majority of people do not believe possible.

I fully agree,that if we all pulled together, we could make this world a better place etc etc. I like the potential for liberty, equality and fraternity, personally.
Society pisses me off, daily, to a teeth grinding degree, that leads to idle fantasies of ejecting much of the Earth’s “ruling class” into the vacuum of space (televised, of course).

But, until everybody “left” of the majority of Tories (and I include moderate Tories) realise their common desires and the extremists recognise they will only see fruit in their dreams, unless they play the long game (over generations, not parliaments) then nothing will change.

To really affect change, the largest single block of voters must be engaged and unified.
That block is and always will be, the centre ground. Governments are decided by where those people choose to turn, not the core party members.
If Labour moved aggressively into the centre, it would bring all but it’s most ardent communists with it, attract the disaffected middle ground (who aren’t exactly fond of current government, merely accepting it as better than the alternative). That is the road to power and the only route to affecting real societal change.

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#861 Re: Politics 2020
April 16, 2021, 09:02:43 am
Something which passed largely unnoticed this week was that Priti Patel managed to break immigration law by trying to deport a witness to a death,  and possibly the ministerial code again.  Perhaps everyone realises that nothing will happen to her anyway so it's not worth bothering with? If so that's pretty depressing. 

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#863 Re: Politics 2020
April 23, 2021, 06:08:02 pm
Ohhhh baby a juicy steak!

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#864 Re: Politics 2020
April 24, 2021, 08:57:31 am
BBC News - Dominic Cummings: No 10 defends PM after former aide's blog post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56870370

Its brilliant spectator sport.  Cummings very clearly has evidence of his claims,  he says so and offers to testify under oath; unless hes bluffing but I seriously doubt that.  You have to wonder how much further this has to go. Kuenssberg said on Newscast that she thinks that theres a lot more to come...

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#865 Re: Politics 2020
April 24, 2021, 09:38:11 am
I wonder what is in this cardboard box....BBC News - Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain: Exits give chance to 'reset government'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54941846

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#866 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 08:59:30 am
Not enough time for a COVID enquiry,  more than enough time to find tens of thousands of pounds for carpets and curtains.  Sick.

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#867 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 09:54:47 am
Not enough time for a COVID enquiry,  more than enough time to find tens of thousands of pounds for carpets and curtains.  Sick.

Have you seen the front page of the Mail?
BJ: “I’d rather see bodies piled high in their thousands”
Etc.
Bojo is being thrown under the bus.

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#868 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 10:09:56 am
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-lockdown-b1837326.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-denies-report-that-pm-johnson-said-let-bodies-pile-high-2021-04-26/

It's from the Mail so I wouldn't trust them for a nano-second (aside from the fact that it's presumably from Cummings), but the phrasing certainly has a Boris-y ring to it, and I will happily watch them tear each other apart.

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#869 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 10:13:55 am
Meanwhile - what did he say in the meeting with the Glazers (ManU owners) 3 or 4 days before the Super £eague was announced....?

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/boris-johnson-urged-come-clean-20465242

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#870 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 10:20:08 am
Not enough time for a COVID enquiry,  more than enough time to find tens of thousands of pounds for carpets and curtains.  Sick.

Have you seen the front page of the Mail?
BJ: “I’d rather see bodies piled high in their thousands”
Etc.
Bojo is being thrown under the bus.

If Cummings isn't just lying (which is entirely possible) and he has evidence of Johnson saying that which isn't deniable, then my guess is that it's bye bye PM.

It's rather depressing that The Times and The Express might as well be written by Boris Johnson for all the criticism their front pages allow. The Times does publish quite a few articles inside which are considerably more damning.

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#871 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 10:24:04 am
Meanwhile - what did he say in the meeting with the Glazers (ManU owners) 3 or 4 days before the Super £eague was announced....?

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/boris-johnson-urged-come-clean-20465242

In terms of public approval, that could be the worst thing for him, if he gave the super league his blessing, given how popular that was.

However it's probably all far too optimistic, and Johnson will probably get away with it like the rotund oaf with a sense of entitlement and no work ethic that he is.

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#872 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 11:03:53 am
Meanwhile - what did he say in the meeting with the Glazers (ManU owners) 3 or 4 days before the Super £eague was announced....?

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/boris-johnson-urged-come-clean-20465242

Oh come on, a quick chat (probably about the weather) in a corridor is suddenly approval for a significant set of plans? Bollocks.

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#873 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 12:32:10 pm
Agree, I know he's stupid, but not  that stupid. Pure conjecture.

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#874 Re: Politics 2020
April 26, 2021, 02:51:03 pm
Oh, iiiiiinteresting -- looks like there are multiple sources for "let the bodies pile high in their thousands" who are not Cummings:

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56890714

And we're already into the "it was just locker-room talk" school of defence:

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1386631561265750017

 

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