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Politics 2023 (Read 465778 times)

winhill

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#50 Re: Politics 2020
February 04, 2020, 02:17:14 pm
Did anyone catch Priti Patel on counter terrorism?

Michael Spicer's take on it:


TobyD

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#51 Re: Politics 2020
February 04, 2020, 10:04:30 pm
Hes brilliant. 

I notice that at this government's latest attempt at emulating an Orwellian dystopia,  the foreign office have banned any words relating to Brexit, instead being encouraged to refer to Australian style relationships on trade etc, which don't really exist. 

Just waiting for Johnson to start suggesting building a big beautiful wall to keep the Scots out.

tomtom

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#52 Re: Politics 2020
February 04, 2020, 10:11:05 pm
Oh he’s already suggested a bridge to Northern Ireland...

TobyD

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#53 Re: Politics 2020
February 04, 2020, 10:23:17 pm
Oh he’s already suggested a bridge to Northern Ireland...

Which also doesn't and wont exist.  Talking of which, does Jacob Rees Mogg exist?

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TobyD

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#55 Re: Politics 2020
February 07, 2020, 11:05:43 pm
There was an interesting response from John Gummer (lord Deben) on Boris Johnson's performance on climate change. Almost verbatim, the ex conservative cabinet minister said that he needs to pull his finger out of his arse, and stop giving people money to build shit houses. Pithy. Owen Jones had answered first and been fairly critical as one might expect, and Gummer swiftly chastised him for not being critical enough. If only any of the current lot had principles like that.

galpinos

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#56 Re: Politics 2020
February 10, 2020, 02:37:45 pm
Oh he’s already suggested a bridge to Northern Ireland...

Which also doesn't and wont exist.  Talking of which, does Jacob Rees Mogg exist?

It appears to still be "in planning"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-scotland-bridge-plan-being-actively-looked-into-no-10

tomtom

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#57 Re: Politics 2020
February 10, 2020, 05:59:17 pm
🤦‍♂️

TobyD

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#58 Re: Politics 2020
February 10, 2020, 10:32:56 pm
 There is no question to which Boris Johnson doesn't think that the answer is to build something massive and very expensive

TobyD

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#59 Re: Politics 2020
February 11, 2020, 10:59:22 pm
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rise-of-germanys-far-right-is-a-warning-to-us-all-ghb56qlkn

As this is readable only by Times subscribers, it's an interesting look at how massive infrastructure investment in East Germany by the West after reunification has served only to depopulate the poorer areas, and create the environment within which the afd have risen to become a powerful force in German politics from being fringe thugs twenty five years ago. It suggests that this might be a lesson in how HS2 might not be the leveller that Johnson wants to sell it as.

mrjonathanr

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#60 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 08:17:55 am
I am not a Times subscriber, but it seems self-evident to me that c£100billion would be better spent on regional transport networks, including bus services, rather than a single railway which adds to existing satisfactory infrastructure.

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#61 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 10:26:49 am

TobyD

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#62 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 10:31:51 am
I am not a Times subscriber, but it seems self-evident to me that c£100billion would be better spent on regional transport networks, including bus services, rather than a single railway which adds to existing satisfactory infrastructure.

That's what most analysts say as well.  However,  they also all say if the money was taken out of HS2 it wouldn't go straight to local authorities.  Rodger Boyes point is that Express train services to poorer areas in Germany and Italy has only hastened the departure of higher earners and industry from them to gravitate towards wealthier cities so it could be a net harm.
Personally I can't imagine I'd ever go out of Sheffield to somewhere near the M1 to get a slightly faster train to London,  it only takes 2 hours at the moment anyway.

tomtom

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#63 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 10:45:32 am
RE HS2.
I buy the existing lines at capacity argument (if you've ever sat at a level crossing on the east coast line you'll know how often its used!) - but you could (I undersand) build the added capacity of HS2 at a lower (still 150mph though) speed for less than half the cost...

Living in Hull/Manchester - it strikes me the Liverpool <> Hull connection has to be in dire need of improvement/investment. ELectrifying Liverpool to Manchester made quite a difference (in speed and number of trains) but its daft that it takes an hour to get from Manchester to Leeds when its 30 miles as the crow flies...

Heres a geeky question for train fans out there: Where is the longest run of straight railway line in Western Europe?

spidermonkey09

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#64 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 11:06:42 am
There was a good Briefing Room podcast on HS2 a few weeks ago. The consensus was basically that infrastructure spending is always way more than is forecast and the only reason its been such a big deal in the UK is precisely because we spend so little on infrastructure compared to anyone else.

HS2 is not really about speed, that is just a by product of building an additional line which will free up capacity on the existing network. As such the effects should be felt across the commuter network (once complete...) even if one isn't on an HS2 train.| The below piece is good (from 2018).

Separately, I had to get the train to work from Leeds for a few days while the van was in the garage. I was appalled at the widespread cancellations and overcrowding; and its been like that for years. Doing nothing is absolutely not an option and although obviously the money would be better spent directly on the North that would take another 5 years to get through various planning/review stages and even then might not happen.

I am quite clearly no fan of this appalling government but HS2 (and 3) has to be built and I'm glad they are doing so. Anything else would have been a dereliction of duty.

https://www.citymetric.com/transport/chaos-british-railways-case-yet-hs2-euston-west-coast-main-line-4236

duncan

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#65 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 11:16:43 am
I don’t know what I think about HS2. I do know that BJ has a long history of making infrastructure choices on their ability to generate headlines over ‘girly swot’ reasons like cost-effectiveness. But you all knew that.


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#67 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 11:51:53 am
There was a good Briefing Room podcast on HS2 a few weeks ago. The consensus was basically that infrastructure spending is always way more than is forecast and the only reason its been such a big deal in the UK is precisely because we spend so little on infrastructure compared to anyone else.

HS2 is not really about speed, that is just a by product of building an additional line which will free up capacity on the existing network. As such the effects should be felt across the commuter network (once complete...) even if one isn't on an HS2 train.| The below piece is good (from 2018).

Separately, I had to get the train to work from Leeds for a few days while the van was in the garage. I was appalled at the widespread cancellations and overcrowding; and its been like that for years. Doing nothing is absolutely not an option and although obviously the money would be better spent directly on the North that would take another 5 years to get through various planning/review stages and even then might not happen.

I am quite clearly no fan of this appalling government but HS2 (and 3) has to be built and I'm glad they are doing so. Anything else would have been a dereliction of duty.

https://www.citymetric.com/transport/chaos-british-railways-case-yet-hs2-euston-west-coast-main-line-4236

HS2 is a valid and complex debate and saying it "has to be built" is plain idiotic.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3088/economics/pros-and-cons-of-high-speed-rail-hs2/
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13410.htm


The cost is huge and the benefits vague and sometimes dubious and cheaper solutions (including the old Nottingham line) could have gained the same addtional north south capacity at a fraction of the cost. The high speed option doesn't anything like double capacity, it's a capaity red herring. Yet high speed does more than double the surrounding land take and massively reduces the possibility of going round valuable sites and increases consequence of accidents, attacks or just dealing with the plain old British weather.

My biggest concern is that it solves todays problems rather than those of a third to half of a century from now. Look how computing has changed in the last decades.. imagine the quality of cheap video conferencing that will be avilable. Imagine if port investment was made in the north to transport goods more locally, avoiding crossing the whole of England. Imagine   that 100 billion invested in improved infrastructure in general away from the SE.

HS2 only just made the cut at its original cost predictions in terms of value for money. As things moved on the benefits were estimated as being just over £100 billion so a very questionable £2.3 gain for every pound spent in 2013, when the costs were around £50 billion.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/predicted-economic-benefits-of-hs2-are-falling-but-ministers-insist-it-will-revitalise-britain-s-8910657.html At £100billion + it makes no gain on the economic benefit predictions.

 The irony of this is it was as much a New Labour political stunt as anything else  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24661963

spidermonkey09

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#68 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 12:22:39 pm
I am not saying it isn't complex, far from it. I just don't see how massive infrastructure can be built without it damaging the environment to be honest. Its about mitigating these things as best we can. If this was a proposed new motorway I'd agree but its a public transport system and the UK is a significant distance behind every single other country I've caught a train in on that front.

If someone was suggesting giving the North £100bn to spend on upgrades to existing infrastructure then I would 100% be behind it. Unfortunately, they aren't, and even if HS2 was cancelled and some money set aside, it would take years for a plan to come together and even longer for it to be approved, by which time no doubt people (probably you and I!) would be picking holes in that too.

Video conferencing does not solve people's issues getting to work. Nor do port upgrades. As cars are phased out in urban centres public transport will become paramount and we are already late in upgrading it. As an aside, the Underground was considered an incredible waste of money when proposed and now is indispensable. I think these sort of projects will always require a leap of faith.


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#69 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 12:51:11 pm
I'm normally a massive fan of infrastructure spending. I supported HS1.  My arguments against HS2 are that it is simply bad economics and the wrong kind of infrastructure (we need rail capacity that meets future needs and despite the government bullshit HS2 increases capacity less than cheaper alternatives and in a less green way). It's simply not logical to support one expensive thing with no clear economic benefit and massive ecological damage because you believe a cheaper and more beneficial and greener alternative might not happen. Even the review authors don't agree:
 
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/12/co-author-of-leaked-hs2-reports-demands-his-name-is-removed.

The idea that £9 billion would be lost is also false. Given where we are now most of the line should be down-converted to standard high speed with major cost gains for little capacity change. The extra speed was always an ecologically threatening red herring compared to a conventional high speed line. At a stroke this would halve the land loss.

The realpolitik of this also stinks... the 16th hole trumps an ancient woodland.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/12/woods-and-irons-winners-and-losers-in-the-path-of-hs2



« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 12:56:24 pm by Offwidth »

TobyD

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#70 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 01:17:24 pm
I have to say I think I agree with spidermonkey. HS2 looks like a reasonable pragmatic choice. I mainly disagree with what I suspect are Johnson's motives, in that he's probably already planning campaigning for 2025 a la Trump; and he wants a big legacy project, as well as being seen to get something done to distract from the likely considerable economic and quality of life impact of leaving the EU

tomtom

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#71 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 01:58:49 pm
Large swathes of the (early) underground were built with private money. The developers also bought up countryside around the stops out of the city and then developed those and sold the houses to the new commuter class for ££££.

As for the timeliness - high speed rail is being heavily invested in - in developing nations such as China - where its seen as a long term viable alternative to air travel as well as reducing road traffic etc..

We (as a nation) are not helped by being very densely populated - making any option expensive.

No-one has answered my question though.... ;D

TobyD

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#72 Re: Politics 2020
February 12, 2020, 09:27:46 pm


Heres a geeky question for train fans out there: Where is the longest run of straight railway line in Western Europe?

Adler to Vorkuta. O hang on Western Europe? Germany?

TobyD

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#73 Re: Politics 2020
February 14, 2020, 01:34:03 pm
Yesterdays reshuffle debacle was certainly pretty interesting. It seems that Johnson has eliminated everyone who was left who had any significant experience in government (other than Michael Gove), so that hes left with a group of under-qualified "yes" people who won't threaten his own somewhat thin record of experience in national government.
The parallels with Donald Trump are becoming depressingly frequent. Johnson's slight ambiguous-ness on US food imports is I think a deliberate preparation for accepting imports and thus further putting the final nail in much of UK agriculture. I wonder whether much of his noisy infrastructure investment will go the same way as the wall: watered down and slowly sidelined in importance as it becomes more obvious that much of the intention is unrealistic. (i.e. that a fast train is going to 'level up' the country) 

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#74 Re: Politics 2020
February 15, 2020, 09:40:15 am
The tories are heading the same way as the Republicans: craven support of an idiot leader who sacks anyone who questions or criticises.

The latest opinion today from The Guardian on HS2 level up.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/15/hs2-boris-johnson-london-birmingham-north

I'm still amazed anyone can regard the inevitable £100+ billion spend (that won't produce any net economic gain on the governments own optimist figures) as pragmatic.

 

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