[andy popp]

Just an historical footnote: yesterday was the 50th anniversary of the UK joining the then EEC.

Jan 1st 1973 was also the day Denmark joined, not least so it could maintain free access to UK markets, especially for its agricultural products. Of course, today, the UK's departure is hardly likely to spur another similar move here in Denmark.

[TobyD]

Just an historical footnote: yesterday was the 50th anniversary of the UK joining the then EEC.

Jan 1st 1973 was also the day Denmark joined, not least so it could maintain free access to UK markets, especially for its agricultural products. Of course, today, the UK's departure is hardly likely to spur another similar move here in Denmark.

Interesting. I cannot understand the degree of cognitive dissonance in people with very strong political convictions. The Euro sceptics still insist it was a good thing to do to leave despite available evidence on the economy, how easy it is to repeal and replace legislation, available labour market etc. That said, they'd probably say people like me are the same in the other direction.

Predictions for the year ahead? The return of Boris Johnson? Will someone finally sack Suella Braverman? Will Farage make his umpteenth comeback?

[seankenny]

For a British person above a certain age - or one into the recent history of the UK’s political economy - the 1970s appear to be the decade everything changed. A period of strife and crisis which saw the end or at least the muting of the post war consensus of capitalism with a strong state, and by its end the emergence of the current system of decreased state spending, increased inequality, larger financial sector, etc. The Seventies as one long period of “agghhhh what the fuck do we do?”

But looking at the figures from say the Resolution Foundation or the IFS, it’s clear that the post-2008 period is also quite a big change from before. Adam Tooze makes a strong case that the U.K. is undergoing a profound crisis that dwarfs the structural change we saw in the 70s and 80s, and that we may see “Britain’s decoupling from the economic development of other rich countries.”

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-184-nostalgia-for-decline

There’s a bit at the start about Perry Anderson which can be safely ignored if left-wing political beefs aren’t your thing. The juicy graphs are at the end.

This tied in well for me with this piece on generational political differences:

https://benansell.substack.com/p/generation-games?utm_medium=reader2

I’m not sure many of the over 60s fully appreciate the country we are turning into. (Apologies to those who do…)

[TobyD]

From an opinion piece in today's Times:

Nobody just f***s off any more. Have you noticed this? No matter how badly they do, no matter how incompetent they prove, nobody just f***s off.
Consider the Conservative Growth Group, the nation’s most ironically named political pressure organisation. Formed to promote the dogma of the failed, short-lived prime minister Liz Truss, whose foolishness and misplaced confidence quite literally made the country poorer overnight. They’re still around, it seems, Team Truss. Not just around but flexing their muscles and threatening to cause more havoc unless her ruinous dogma is adopted. They’re plotting, we’re told. Good grief — seriously? Why don’t they just go away? What monstrous entitlement is it that Trussites still demand influence and an audience, having proved so inadequate when given responsibility? Isn’t there a dry cleaners in Nuneaton that needs running into the ground instead? A sub-post office in the depths of Aberdeenshire that’s on its uppers and is probably closing anyway? Why should anyone indulge them, ever again?
The same with Jacob Rees-Mogg, formerly the minister for Brexit opportunities. Had a look, couldn’t find any. He’s still about, inexplicably. Still clinging to political existence like a brilliantined stick insect when the time has long come to go.
There used to be a sense of shame in public life. If you tanked the economy, if your policies proved harmful, the definition of duty included an acknowledgement the game was up. No more. Here they come again, the living dead of Trussonomics. The Conservative Growth Group? Oh please. Do us all a favour. Just f*** off.

Rather indelicately put, but I really wonder why many people seem to retain enthusiasm for leaders who have completely failed to do an even half competent job.
Why on earth do they still love about them? How does one man go to the Carribbean at every opportunity, do no work whatsoever and still be reasonably popular? It's truly baffling.

[mrjonathanr]

I liked the bit about the ‘brilliantined stick insect’. Excellent caricature, captures something of the man. Vain, oily, etiolated indolence made flesh.

[SA Chris]

Didn't know Jonathan Pye did OPs in the Times now. 

[TobyD]

Didn't know Jonathan Pye did OPs in the Times now.

It is a bit like that isn't it. Remarkable how often comment pieces in the Times are like this though. Just because a newspaper is broadly supportive of the government, doesn't mean that the journalists are. This was a diary piece though. Can't remember the author's name.

[Offwidth]

The amazing tale of how the Zahawi tax issue was uncovered around the time he was Chancellor... can't see how he can possibly survive this... multiple lies, legal threats and a fine for what looks like it must be illegal evasion. The days of duck ponds on MP expenses seem like nostalgic trivia compared to this.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/how-i-cost-nadhim-zahawi-3-7million/

[mrjonathanr]

The days of duck ponds on MP expenses seem like nostalgic trivia compared to this.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/how-i-cost-nadhim-zahawi-3-7million/

Well in Zahawi’s case, maybe not duck ponds, but stables.
He trotted out the same excuse of ‘carelessness’ that time, too:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nadhim-zahawi-says-using-taxpayer-cash-to-heat-horse-stables-was-genuine-mistake_uk_62cbd961e4b0359fa47d9746

[TobyD]

Zahawi's tax situation may have been totally inappropriate, but I'm not sure it was illegal, exactly.
I'm not saying he shouldn't be sacked or anything but I don't think it makes him a criminal.

[Offwidth]

If he was evading tax (not paying tax clearly due on taxable income) it's illegal.

[mrjonathanr]

Wikipedia puts it this way:

Tax evasion is an illegal attempt to defeat the imposition of taxes by individuals, corporations, trusts, and others. Tax evasion often entails the deliberate misrepresentation of the taxpayer's affairs to the tax authorities to reduce the taxpayer's tax liability, and it includes dishonest tax reporting, declaring less income, profits or gains than the amounts actually earned, overstating deductions, using bribes against authorities in countries with high corruption rates and hiding money in secret locations.

It seems unlikely HMRC customarily apply 7 figure penalties for simple miscalculations.

[TobyD]

I'm not a tax lawyer, but I believe the money in the form of shares was held in Gibraltar in a shell company. So it's not quite that simple.
 Johnson is worse.

[TobyD]

To clarify,  I think that Zahawi is guilty of tax avoidance which is wrong but not illegal,  not tax evasion,  which is illegal. 

The Johnson/ Sharp situation seems to be an obvious conflict of interest.  You just shouldn't be talking nearly a million pound loans out if you're PM,  still less giving your donor a high public office straight afterwards.

[ali k]

In other news, if you haven't seen the front page of the Mail today. "SHOCKING RISE OF 'SOMETHING FOR NOTHING BRITAIN' ". Apparently the fact that over 50% of households now get more from welfare than they pay in tax, and the top 10% of earners pay half of all income tax is proof that Covid has turned the nation into a bunch of scroungers. Definitely nothing to do with a rise in inequality.

[seankenny]

Most people’s knowledge of wealth and income distributions is very very poor.

[galpinos]

In other news, if you haven't seen the front page of the Mail today. "SHOCKING RISE OF 'SOMETHING FOR NOTHING BRITAIN' ". Apparently the fact that over 50% of households now get more from welfare than they pay in tax, and the top 10% of earners pay half of all income tax is proof that Covid has turned the nation into a bunch of scroungers. Definitely nothing to do with a rise in inequality.

As well as Sean's point, the "now" is actually data from 2020/21 (I think there was something happening at that point that don't make for a great data point?), "welfare" includes a lot of stuff inc. accessing NHS services so it's not just "benefits", and it neglects to note now many of the 50% of the households are pensioners.

[Wellsy]

We have a massive productivity problem, an aging and sick population, and huge regional inequality, but of course its FREELOADERS who are the cause of this, not 12 years of utterly dogs dogshit government

[seankenny]

Trying to persuade pensioners that their state pensions are a benefit is utterly pointless. But still true!

[Offwidth]

To clarify,  I think that Zahawi is guilty of tax avoidance which is wrong but not illegal,  not tax evasion,  which is illegal. 

Agreeing a penalty is standard for HMRC: quicker payment plus a fine and it saves on legal bills and risks of losing a prosecution of illegal evasion. The history is summarised in the link below, including a section on possible evasion at the bottom, from which I've quoted below...

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2023/jan/23/nadhim-zahawi-taxes-explainer-former-chancellor

"One important point arising from Zahawi’s statement that unpaid tax on a benefit apparently worth more than £20m was viewed by HMRC as “careless and not deliberate” is what exactly that phrase means.

While a plain English reading might suggest that it means he simply made an error, Dan Neidle told the BBC that the meaning in tax law is more complicated, and may be a designation settled on by HMRC if it concludes it cannot prove deliberate tax evasion.

“‘Careless’ has a very specific meaning,” he said. “‘Careless’ means that you weren’t just wrong, you’re allowed to get your tax wrong … it works like this: You or I, as long as we instruct a proper adviser, we give that adviser the right information, we follow that adviser’s advice, and we check that final tax return to the best that we’re able to, so long as we do that, even if it was completely wrong … we won’t pay penalties. To pay a 30% penalty, you didn’t do one or more of those things.” "

[mrjonathanr]

To clarify,  I think that Zahawi is guilty of tax avoidance which is wrong but not illegal,  not tax evasion,  which is illegal. 

Intriguing that you’d be in a position to know.

Maybe Zahawi’s lawyers’ libel threats to Dan Neidle were ‘careless not deliberate’. Here’are the tweets between Dan Neidle and Osborne Clarke (Zahawi’s lawyers)where he attempts to get clarification.

https://twitter.com/DanNeidle/status/1617205525359239180?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1617205525359239180%7Ctwgr%5Eeee5be65b38ee98eaa914986f6576fe45e19fbed%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fpolitics%2F2023%2F01%2F23%2Fdan-neidle-investigating-nadhim-zahawis-tax-affairs%2F

[Paul B]

Sumak has requested an ethics probe:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1617476517583372289?t=ITP6P_eCxUx_JMOJ058Kkw&s=19

[mrjonathanr]

Tomorrow marks the first quarter of Sunak’s premiership. He made some clear pledges when he accepted the office:

This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level.

Do people feel they are being honoured?

[TobyD]

Tomorrow marks the first quarter of Sunak’s premiership. He made some clear pledges when he accepted the office:

This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level.

Do people feel they are being honoured?

Frankly,  I'd far rather have Rishi Sunak as a PM until the next election.  If he's pushed out, they'll almost certainly bring back Boris Johnson.  There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he'd be worse. You'd get a much less competent cabinet and the return of policy like privatising channel 4.

[Oldmanmatt]

Sumak has requested an ethics probe:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1617476517583372289?t=ITP6P_eCxUx_JMOJ058Kkw&s=19

Like that, assuming it’s not a typo…

And I assume you mean this variety:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxicodendron_vernix

Rather than the tasty kind…