[TobyD]

Geeze Louise, Toby, has the Guardian's Health Editor done something to offend you or something?

It wasn't the Guardian I was meaning to criticise, I think the report is fine. The government however is making every attempt that it can at avoiding any scrutiny. There's a limited amount that newspapers or serious media can do if the PM will only submit to questions from primary school children,  his own press department,  or possibly a softball chat show occasionally. 

[Offwidth]

I was beginning to worry Toby.  Investigating causation isn't for the Guardian, it's for the Department of Health and health researchers. The facts and correlations on longevity of poorer people in the poorer areas of the country certainly look very serious to me and so improved research looks like an urgent need.  I suspect a large factor in causation is a decline in quality of old age social care for the poorer part of the UK population.

On a different subject there is an interesting article from a BBC journalist supporting my views that the progressive establishment and the BBC were not always helping themselves over brexit (it links to a more extensive article near the bottom).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/27/tv-debates-brexit-bbc-centre-ground-leavers-remainers

[TobyD]

I suspect a large factor in causation is a decline in quality of old age social care for the poorer part of the UK population.

I don't know if you meant this, but quality is often good. I work with mainly elderly people in their homes and have quite a lot of experience of domiciliary social care. A definite issue is that there's nowhere near enough of it so older adults in need of care spend longer in hospital, where they're vastly more likely to acquire infections, illness and become physically deconditioned and undernourished.
Boris Johnson said after the election that his government has a great plan for social care. Isn't it funny that Mr Cummings hasn't devoted any of his efforts to looking after people and is concentrating on spying on spads and trying to destroy the BBC.

[Will Hunt]

Getting rid of the BBC is a critical first step. He who controls the past controls the future; he who controls the present controls the past.

[tomtom]

Anyway. I voted yesterday for the labour leader.

[Will Hunt]

Anyway. I voted yesterday for the labour leader.

Care to share? My papers haven't come through yet. Not sure whether to vote for Nandy or Starmer. Leaning towards Starmer. Personally, I like his detailed responses to questions, but my concern is that he's not very good at playing the media game and delivering short, snappy soundbites. As much as I loathe that simplicity, if the leader can't get the message across to people before they switch off then you just get wiped out by the next big Cummings three word slogan. Nandy seems OK but a bit depressing.

[tomtom]

Anyway. I voted yesterday for the labour leader.

Care to share? My papers haven't come through yet. Not sure whether to vote for Nandy or Starmer. Leaning towards Starmer. Personally, I like his detailed responses to questions, but my concern is that he's not very good at playing the media game and delivering short, snappy soundbites. As much as I loathe that simplicity, if the leader can't get the message across to people before they switch off then you just get wiped out by the next big Cummings three word slogan. Nandy seems OK but a bit depressing.

It’s all electronic. Nothing sent through in the post. Slick website actually...

I voted KS first and LN second. RLB doesn’t figure for me.

[Offwidth]

I suspect a large factor in causation is a decline in quality of old age social care for the poorer part of the UK population.

I don't know if you meant this, but quality is often good. I work with mainly elderly people in their homes and have quite a lot of experience of domiciliary social care. A definite issue is that there's nowhere near enough of it so older adults in need of care spend longer in hospital, where they're vastly more likely to acquire infections, illness and become physically deconditioned and undernourished.
Boris Johnson said after the election that his government has a great plan for social care. Isn't it funny that Mr Cummings hasn't devoted any of his efforts to looking after people and is concentrating on spying on spads and trying to destroy the BBC.

Where is your evidence that quality for the poorest in domiciliary care is often good (which implies its usually good when my impression is the opposite: it's mostly below fully acceptable, can occasionally be OK or good but too often is dangerous).  The fact is that, thanks to austerity, council rates (for those old people not paying for their own social care) are so low that homes have to subsidise with differential rates (for those paying for themselves) or can barely afford to function to statutory standards. Pretty much all the families I know in the north of England using care homes that take council funded places have had bad and sometimes very bad experiences and those who eventually secure a place in a good care home that takes council funded places feel very lucky. All the big independent health information organisations and think-tanks looking at care funding say council rates for care are normally simply no longer commercially viable. This isn't recent either: government warnings have been made for years now.

https://www.communitycare.co.uk/2015/01/28/council-cuts-threaten-viability-adult-childrens-social-care-mps-warn/

[TobyD]

Where is your evidence that quality for the poorest in domiciliary care is often good

The fact that I've been a community physio for nearly ten years and see carers at work all the time, sometimes getting them to do exercises with people, and the people being cared for tell me about them all the time. The most common complaint is that they arrive too early or too late. I know that there are many poor experiences and services, but I think it's important to emphasize that there are an awful lot of carers working amazingly hard and doing a great job. I think it's doing them down to start saying that all social care is awful.

[Offwidth]

It may be that you work in an area where things are better than average or don't get to work in the worst establishments (or as my wife, as an agency nurse earning cash to support her degree studies, discovered 30 years ago working night shifts at nursing homes: that the worst things happen when hardly anyone else is around) . The overall data form the Parliamentary Health Select Committee, CQC, and independant bodies like the Kings Trust, The Health Foundation, etc,   looks very bad. Several big carehome providers have already gone into administration (like Four Seasons and Carlauren).

I never said care workers don't work hard or don't care (just the opposite... as a group of workers, many on minimum wage, they seem amazingly impressive to me from my personal experience) but if the council funded system is financialy non viable that quality of staff only goes so far. I also never said every care home is awful (but most are below where a civilised system should be because of funding issues and minority are awful).

[TobyD]

Any way, whatever ones view of the quality of the current situation is, it's unarguable that it does represent a huge crisis as there isn't enough care provision now, and it's going to get worse. The last person to honestly propose something that would have made a difference was Theresa May, and it played a big part in losing her majority, as the press branded it a dementia tax. It may have been ill conceived but it was an effort at least. Johnson seems keen to not repeat the error, by not actually doing anything about it.

[petejh]

You aren’t adding much of value to this discussion OMM, you just don’t like having it pointed out that you were wrong.

I must have missed your evidence then, Pete.
Must have been a short paragraph somewhere in your baseless assertions.
Perhaps you could point me towards it?
Happy to admit I’m wrong when you are able to do more than insist that I am, because you say so.

<TLDR>
...

Just catching up.

I was referring to your strawman representations of my views Matt. Not about whether or not my views on brexit/the economics are ‘right or ‘wrong’. Strawman constructions like these..

''It still makes me smile that you think everyone commenting is “Left wing” (especially me) as if not supporting the latest bunch of tossers to take office is somehow silly or to be despised.'''

I don't believe that, nor have I ever said it. Can you show me where I did. In your mind maybe?


'The difference is, I will happily tell people I think they are wrong, I would never tell them they shouldn’t have or express an opinion; which is what you do.'

I've never told anyone that they shouldn't have or express an opinion, nor have I ever thought it. Can you show me where I said it. Again, possibly in your mind?
Counter to your assertion, actually I may be more open-minded, more accepting of other's views and more tolerant of diversity than the average person.. I enjoy the company of people who hold views at odds with my own and I enjoy hearing them. I appreciate listening to views from all angles of a subject, not just the one I personally hold as I find listening to different viewpoints the best way of better understanding something. In real life I also just enjoy trying to understand people and hearing their opinions without feeling the need to offer my own opinion or prove them 'wrong' (maybe that doesn't come across as well online!..). Finally for my adult life I've consistently scored almost maximum on the 'openness to experience' scale (OCEAN) in every test I’ve ever taken if that's proof of anything? Hopefully most people would see that I'm the opposite of your characterisation.


'I’m sorry, are you claiming that everything is just peachy or are you just being pedantic by trying to imply that no negative consequences have/will occurred/occur because (as yet) the worst case predictions have not materialised?'

Err.. no, I haven't said anywhere that 'everything is peachy'. Nor have I said 'no negative consequences will occur'. Can you show me where I said this. In your mind?


'I spent the week in meetings and dinners and lunches, with MOD and RN, specifically looking at Fisheries protection.
The briefing notes are a little more bleak, the budgetary pressure a little higher, potential flash points more volatile, than you seem to think.
It’s difficult to be so confident in it all as you.'

I haven't expressed any opinion on fisheries?. Nor have I said I'm 'confident in it all'. Can you show me where I said this. In your mind maybe?
I've just said we haven't had a recession (yet), as some predicted would immediately happen and as was heavily publicised in the debate around brexit - just like the lie about the £350M was heavily publicised. 
I'll take your word for that stuff about fisheries as, apparently, you're privy to high-level private information from the mod or navy that none of the rest of us are... I assume it's still OK to make reasonable assumptions for ourselves on the likely impact to our lives, based on the available evidence.


'Of course, being a leave supporter you’re not much for detail or anything longer than a sound bite...'

Stay classy. This sort of BS doesn't really warrant a reply other than it makes people who express such rubbish look as daft as those they're trying to (mis)characterise.


'Pete, is the first to criticise a sweeping statement, or extreme prediction, yet fails to see his dismissal of any prediction of dire consequences; as an equal and opposite sweeping statement and extreme prediction'

Except that I haven’t ‘dismissed any prediction of dire consequences’, see above. At the risk of painful repetition.. Mentioning the current lack of the, much-publicised, predicted recession isn't 'dismissing any prediction of dire consequences'. It's pointing out that there isn't yet the, much-publicised, recession (but there's plenty of time yet!)


Ali K
'Pete was arguing that, despite the fact that we are still in the transition period and there has been no change in trading arrangements or immigration restrictions (or other factors which might impact the economy), because we are not in recession TODAY that somehow proves the economists’ predictions of a weakened economy following Brexit wrong.'

You're giving an impression here of being incapable of separating what I said (no recession yet - but there's still time!) from what you wanted me to have said ('no recession yet, and therefore no economic consequences, and therefore all those silly forecasters were wrong')


You and Ali K are committing a textbook construction of a straw-man of someone's views and then charging it with your bayonets fixed. Boringly par-for-the-course on here unfortunately.

I don’t have deeply-held convictions, other than valuing truth and anyone making the effort to seek it. I appreciate hearing opinions different to my own and am happy to adjust my own views. To that end I enjoy an occasional discussion with most people on ukb. But not really with you Matt, your dog-with-a-stick style and mischaracterisation of views is just tiresome.
Happy to say I won’t be engaging in any more politics threads as they're as pointless as I made out in my original moan, should have made that promise to myself long ago. 

[Oldmanmatt]

Ha!

Strawman representations...?

Not sure asking for evidence is quite that.

What was that “privy to high level briefings” BS?

Bollocks, just illustrating one of the reasons why I feel differently about the process to you and nothing that’s not in the public domain:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/the-royal-navy-brexit-and-uk-fisheries/

Only fleshed out a little, by discussing where currently responsibilities are shared with other EU nations and the blind spots the end of those partnerships will create. I think the perceived threat is actually from non-EU nations exploiting those shadows.

I believe Pete was actually asking people to apologise for sharing the dire consequence models, no?

Oh well.

[ali k]

Pete, I think I counted at least 5 people who read the same into what you wrote. So maybe not so much a straw man as a sign you could be clearer in how you phrase things? Assuming we all read your sentiments incorrectly...

[shark]

Keir Starmer in.

Phew!

[tomtom]

Keir Starmer in.

Phew!

Good. I preferred Lisa Nandy in many ways - but KS is a safe post Corbyn choice.

[Will Hunt]

Do we know how RLB performed? Out on a walk and can't really Google.

[shark]

27.6%

[BrutusTheBear]

Keir Starmer in.

Phew!

Go on then, I’ll bite Sharko.  Not the result that many of us wanted, I’m not thinking phew at all.  For many of us Sir Kier is viewed as an establishment figure that is backed by the likes of the pharma industry, we think he is ‘owned’ and that should he reach power there will be a heavy watering down of the socialist politics we wanted.  I hope to goodness that he gets on with slamming this horrifying government and that his posturing as a socialist proves to be of substance.  I also hope that he appoints a team that reflects the broad views of the membership.
I’m a party member and will miss JC but at present will not be reactionary about this, as I know some will be sacking their memberships today.  I wait and watch with interest to see how this pans out.

[tomtom]

I’m a member and one of the 52.6%. 👍

[BrutusTheBear]

Keir Starmer in.

Phew!

Good. I preferred Lisa Nandy in many ways - but KS is a safe post Corbyn choice.

  But you voted for Sir K?

[Somebody's Fool]

I’ll reserve judgement until I see his shadow cabinet, but the fact that George Osbourne was urging Londoners to vote for him is not a good sign so far.

The only manifesto he has stood on is party unity, the illusion of which can easily be achieved by denying anyone on the left a media platform.

His politics, if he even has any, are completely unknown to the membership at the moment.

Aside from that the guy is obviously savvy. Being the architect of the defeat which has crushed the left, while still being the darling of the pro-remain membership, is great politics on a personal level. The small matter of the election defeat is just a bit shit for 90% of the country.

[shark]

and that should he reach power there will be a heavy watering down of the socialist politics we wanted. 

That's one reason it's a phew from me.

The country doesn't want the socialist politics you wanted.

[Somebody's Fool]

That’s fine as a position if you had a free university education and have amassed a huge amount of equity in housing over the last 20 years.

Surely it’s not too much of a leap of imagination to realise there is a huge, and ever growing, constituency in this country who are crying out for the policies proposed by Corbyn and McDonnell, and that they might be feeling a little despondent today.

I think generally on this forum the political debate is dominated by the ‘centrist dads’ who did very well during the Blair years and have a real blind spot when it comes to the problems third way triangulation has caused down the line for the next generation.

[Oldmanmatt]

That’s fine as a position if you had a free university education and have amassed a huge amount of equity in housing over the last 20 years.

Surely it’s not too much of a leap of imagination to realise there is a huge, and ever growing, constituency in this country who are crying out for the policies proposed by Corbyn and McDonnell, and that they might be feeling a little despondent today.

I think generally on this forum the political debate is dominated by the ‘centrist dads’ who did very well during the Blair years and have a real blind spot when it comes to the problems third way triangulation has caused down the line for the next generation.

Hey Si,

You know, if you are correct on the “growing constituency” hypothesis, give it 5 years and you won’t have anything to worry about, because they’ll be a clear majority by the time of the next election.

So berating “centrist dads” for not believing, is pointless. I mean, is that actually going to convince people to change their minds?

Oh, meant to add.
Those dads, have teenage and twenty something kids and understand quite well what they’re facing.