[shark]

You won’t see Labour in power while McCluskey is kingmaker.
(In response to Shark).

 

[Oldmanmatt]

You won’t see Labour in power while McCluskey is kingmaker.
(In response to Shark).

 

This.

However, it is undeniable that more people who voted, did not vote for the Cons, than did.
Ergo, Shark is absolutely correct that Lab lost the election and the electorate. Not only did they fail to attract any of those millions of non-Con voters, they lost a significant number of they’re “normal” supporters.

I keep banging on about it, but it is still (and I assert this as a demonstrable fact) that the political spectrum of the population lies on a bell curve, highest at broad apex encompassing ~50% of the population in the “middle” ground. This gives rise to a very nearly 50/50 split that rarely deviates much around that mark (+/- 7% or so).
I’m asserting this on the split in numbers of votes cast, not seats won.

Labour ignored this reality. Or, at least, wrongly assumed that the Working class were way further left on the curve than reality has shown. That bell curve is just so much fatter around the apex, so much more precipitous at the margins than they can grasp in their socialist circle jerk.

The notion that attracting the centrist voter, was in any way unnecessary, is to simply ignore the reality that ~50% of the population should properly be called exactly that (ie, not lying at an extreme).

What a different picture this would be with Proportional Rep! The Cons would only hold 43% of the seats! Where would their “Crushing victory” be then? Where would be their  “commanding majority” and “absolute and inarguable mandate”?
In reality, they don’t have that, not in terms of genuine support of a majority of the population.

I wish I’d realised much younger how shit our FPTP system actually is. I wish we all could wake up to the injustice of it.

Because, ultimately, the vast majority if people in the UK are decent, fair minded and not extreme in their views; trapped in a system that only seems to allow relative extremists to gain power.

[TobyD]

You won’t see Labour in power while McCluskey is kingmaker.
(In response to Shark).

I also totally agree.  He is a dinosaur,  however hes the biggest funder of the party as head of unite.

Offwidth, I agree with many of your points about tactics,  but I think the problem was Corbyn and Momentum.  More people would have voted tactically if Labour had a less divisive, more credible leader and policies. 
I think that to blame the media is wrong.  I fear for media independence under a Johnson/ Cummings administration.  As many conservative leavers moan about the media being biased against them as do Labour lefties. It's not so much the media as the electorate who were biased against Corbyn. 

[petejh]

Where's Nostradamus..?
(Offwidth)

I've been unwell and travelling and always said a Boris working majority was a big risk. My disappointment maybe even became physically manifest, as the election day saw an acceleration of one of the strangest cold virus attacks that I have ever ever experienced. Anyhow I voted green in a safe Labour seat, as I advised others to in similar seats, and my 'big name' Change MP, Chris Leslie, got an electoral beating, as did Anna Soubry down the road.  My new MP is a local 23 year old  Labour socialist. I half watched most of the election (in accomodation near Stanstead), as I felt so rough that I couldn't sleep, and flew to Turin yesterday where we ambled round the city ( just missed a Greta speech!), and then I half-slept again, in a daze, for 14 hours. I'm feeling a little better today and listened to IFSC delegates gossip over breakfast, after they passsed condolences on to Lynn and I over brexit.

On my English predictions, well they were wrong and that was obvious from the time of the exit polls (I was right in Scotland... more sensible people on average). My view on why the result occurred  is a bit different to others here. My biggest concern is still that the educated progressive voters clearly did not vote tactically en masse. If you look through the results, at least 20, and  maybe as many as 30 seats could have been won if such progressives had been less tribal and less attached to a silly belief that in the flawed electoral system, that  FPTP is, that you should vote for the party you most believe in.  Those seats would have not have been enough though, as, in those northern and midlands areas Labour deprived seats, there was a vote swing of typically 15% against the Labour party.. the second big factor. Gina Millar made the point early am on Friday that the leave voters seemed if anything to have voted more tactically than the remain voters; this included more of those who didn't normally vote but had turned out to vote leave and again this week... the third factor. For all the problems with Corbyn's leadership I'm not sure any likely leader could have stopped this response from the working class ex Labour voter front. Labour is too detached from its traditional base and is doomed if it doesn't resolve this soon... the problem is more Momentum than Corbyn.

I said here before, that there was no point in trying to convince this large number of older working class ex Labour voters, who voted leave, to vote Labour this time. However I also said their votes were factored in to the polls. What I missed was the size of this effect and that there was also, from turnout, a cancellation of the youth-vote, pro-Labour effect, by the 'disaffected rare voter effect' (people who didn't normally vote but turned out to vote leave... this group were the main reason the referendum polls were wrong). Back to those working class Labour areas, when your community and social media bubble had a major narrative that brexit was anything from OK to vital, and Corby was anything from useless to evil, their voting patterns were inevitable. However, I refuse to see these people as stupid, as you need to be brave to vote against the common knowledge in any social or political bubble.  The stupid people were the educated middle classes who should have known better, who supported Boris the liar, or if they opposed him, didn't vote tactically. They knew what brexit meant and that the threats to the UK of Corbyn, especially given the election math, were mostly made up 'bs' from dishonest right wing influencers. Also, the business, industrial, economic and professional classes who were vocal before the referendum but muted this time. The TV media also gave Boris way too easy a ride. Good moderate people and experts were not calling out the dangers of Boris's lies enough. I'd add that too many of the well educated middle classes of the UK, who knew the poor really needed more help after austertiy, didn't prioritise this enough... they used their intelligence and influence to mostly navigate around our creaking public sector systems, whilst those deprived ex Labour voters were fucked by it, time and time again. If their treatment is not changed soon this will lead to social unrest, worse than during Maggie's years;  it will be fun to see how these new local tory ideological minded  MPs will cope with their constituency work (too many are like Corbinista MPs in reverse).

Like Matt upthread, my main hope for the future is that Boris has stitched himself up so well with this election win that he is doomed. On brexit, the 'unicorn' trade deals with the EU and US, that are mutually incompatible, will hit him hard and eat political energy. He either has to choose a softer brexit than he planned (bypassing the ERG and annoying the US) with good EU alignment, or, something like Canada (where time is way too short given his supposed negotiation time red lines) risking no deal. He has lost all his best MPs for attracting future middle class swing votors for the next election ... the few new moderate tory stars will take years to start to shine. His party is a aged dinosaur detached from the reality of ordinary life in the UK, reactionary, greedy and racist, and will contine to feed the Parliamentary party mainly new raw meat; Torygraph, Excess, Fail and Scum headlines in this election were as rabid as they have ever been.  The public sector is in a terrible mess following a decade of tory austerity and his planned headline investments to the NHS, schools and police won't even reverse the problems of the last ten years and will soon lead to various mini crises.  In arguably the areas of biggest UK local needs, big local council services, more austerity is planned. I can see life expectancies to continue declining, as right across social care things are struggling so much and there is no spare system capacity when things become acute. The UK union is at serious threat in Scotland and NI. The clock is also ticking on the desperately urgent need for global action to tackle climate change and his party are full of climate change deniers. Boris's stated desire, in his post results speech to the people, for everyone  to now come together (after all he has done to gain and retain power), is a sick joke.

So based on your current prediction-making form most of the above predictions will be entirely wrong. But even a broken clock is correct twice per day..

[shark]

I wish I’d realised much younger how shit our FPTP system actually is. I wish we all could wake up to the injustice of it.

Because, ultimately, the vast majority if people in the UK are decent, fair minded and not extreme in their views; trapped in a system that only seems to allow relative extremists to gain power.

Don’t agree as I wouldn’t call the Tories (on the whole) relative extremists. PR would also gift real minority extremists (National Front, UKIP etc) places in Parliament.

[danm]

About PR: I think that people knowing that their vote means something, regardless of where they live, is worth paying the price of having small extremist parties in parliament. The other option would be to scrap the Lords and have an Upper House populated by representatives chosen based on vote share nationally as a percentage.

Gutted as I am by the result, looking at this from the viewpoint of a Leave voting, former Labour voter in the North who now has a Tory MP, this represents a massive positive sea change for them. For generations they have voted in a safe seat for a party which almost never wins, and have seen their communities slowly decay around them. They then for once get a chance to vote (for Brexit) where their vote can actually make a difference, only to be ignored for 3 years, and be accused of being stupid, racist or gullible. The Tories have given them something Labour hasn't been able to give them in recent times - a voice in parliament. Their needs will now form a source of internal pressure from within the party to get stuff done for them. The next 5 years are going to be quite interesting.

[Oldmanmatt]

Dan Cheetham.

Express your counter opinion here, publicly, or fuck off.

[TobyD]

I wish I’d realised much younger how shit our FPTP system actually is. I wish we all could wake up to the injustice of it.

Because, ultimately, the vast majority if people in the UK are decent, fair minded and not extreme in their views; trapped in a system that only seems to allow relative extremists to gain power.

Don’t agree as I wouldn’t call the Tories (on the whole) relative extremists. PR would also gift real minority extremists (National Front, UKIP etc) places in Parliament.

The old Tories, perhaps not. However, there are an awful lot of new MPs now. I think a lot depends on how much sway over policy Cummings has, as he is certainly an extremist in many ways. I also don't know about the extremist parties you mention. Perhaps a few Brexit party loons like Widdecombe but you'd also get a lot more Greens.

[Oldmanmatt]

This, really:

what it should be

[Offwidth]

I wish I’d realised much younger how shit our FPTP system actually is. I wish we all could wake up to the injustice of it.

Because, ultimately, the vast majority if people in the UK are decent, fair minded and not extreme in their views; trapped in a system that only seems to allow relative extremists to gain power.

Don’t agree as I wouldn’t call the Tories (on the whole) relative extremists. PR would also gift real minority extremists (National Front, UKIP etc) places in Parliament.

I don't think most tory voters are extremists but they do seem to be in denial about their party having shifted hard right: Boris's ministers are certainly very extreme for his party, compared to any tory government in modern times. Hiding from this truth is heading in the direction of the denial about the extremism of the US Republican party, from their voters. It bodes ill for the future of capitalism, when dangerous liars become lauded.

[BrutusTheBear]

The establishment will do their utmost to prevent a socialist led Labour Party from reaching government for obvious reasons.  If this election proves anything, it proves how easy it is to manipulate a large proportion of the population to think in a particular way, particularly when billionaires are throwing money through the media machine to endlessly churn out their misleading narrative.  It also proves that despite the nigh on impossible task of taking on the machinations of the billionaire establishment and having our voice heard through the tirade of flack that comes our way, 1 in 3 voters chose to vote for a socialist Labour Party.  We continue the fight for social justice and equality which never ends.

In other alarming news...Tommy Robinson has joined the Conservative party.

[mrjonathanr]

I can agree with a lot of that but... being led by a cabal of incompetents is a betrayal of all those whose interests they claim to represent.

Stephen will feel at home; Boris’s big tent has spread wide enough to welcome his sort now.

[BrutusTheBear]

I have said this before on here but there is a party of ‘progressives’ and ‘moderates” that occupies the ‘centrist’ ground, if the people on here so strongly believe that this is where the LP needs to go to get elected why on earth don’t you join the Lib Dem’s and pursue your centrist dream with them?  (It’s perfect timing, a new leader is required, there are no links to union Kingmakers, there’s no lefties getting in the way, there is no incompetent cabal to speak of, make it happen folks).

[Will Hunt]

Not until FPTP is out of the way, otherwise we leave the opposition in the hands of people with no interest in winning elections.

[Oldmanmatt]

I have said this before on here but there is a party of ‘progressives’ and ‘moderates” that occupies the ‘centrist’ ground, if the people on here so strongly believe that this is where the LP needs to go to get elected why on earth don’t you join the Lib Dem’s and pursue your centrist dream with them?  (It’s perfect timing, a new leader is required, there are no links to union Kingmakers, there’s no lefties getting in the way, there is no incompetent cabal to speak of, make it happen folks).

Mate, that attitude is why we’re here. Which I’m pretty sure has been mentioned many times on this thread by many people.

[BrutusTheBear]

Some of us believe in winning elections for us the people, others believe we have to sell our souls to the ‘shadow’ (big business, banks, big money) in order to win an election but in my opinion once that happens there is little point in getting elected because the interests of shadow will be served over and above those of the people. We’ll be walked into spurious conflicts in order to increase arms sales and we’ll allow profit to take more importance than care.  The significant change that is needed globally is beyond the petty political games that are being played out within our dysfunctional so called democracy. 

[Will Hunt]

Very well, as you wish, Conservative rule without end, during which time all that you prophesy will happen anyway on a greater unmitigated scale.

You see how it works? This is the idiocy of the radical left. They would rather be martyred in perpetual defeat than compromise and avoid the worst excesses of their enemy.

[mrjonathanr]

Brutus, the Labour Party has just been comprehensively rejected by the electorate. Th e aspirations you list are phantasms, disappearing like the morning mist,  because revolutionary talk means nothing without power and the Labour Party has never been further from it.

Virtue is nothing without power Brutus. Confront that reality and you may have a route to social justice.

[teestub]

Don’t agree as I wouldn’t call the Tories (on the whole) relative extremists. PR would also gift real minority extremists (National Front, UKIP etc) places in Parliament.

This came up on here recently, so I’ll repeat myself: why would this be a problem? They get a few seats out of 600 hundred odd and make exactly fuck all difference to how parliament runs, as they don’t have any clout as minority extremists.

I guess theoretically the Speaker could choose an early day motion regarding deporting all brown people or whatever the NF would come up with, but this isn’t exactly going to get a huge amount of votes.

This is a very poor argument against giving a voice to the millions who vote Green (or Brexit party for that matter). Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

[Hoseyb]

I saw an interesting static where they broke the voting down into the age of voters. Basically nearly all over 60s voted tory, and nearly all under 30s voted Labour. With the NHS suffering like it is, there may be a very different voting population in 5 years.

[Will Hunt]

Not as simple as that. Old votes right and young votes left: twas ever thus. People get further right as they get older.

[Bradders]

Labour clearly needs a serial liar to outlie Johnson to win.

No...just a stronger personality. According to the argument in that article, they did so well comparably in the 2017 election because they were up against a much weaker personality in Theresa May.

why on earth don’t you join the Lib Dem’s

Definitely good timing for this, particularly as Brexit is now decided once and for all. They need to go back to the drawing board.

Lots of stuff about saying the Tory's gambled on Brexit and won; Lib Dems essentially did the exact same on the opposite side of the argument and it went completely against them. Time to start again.

About PR: I think that people knowing that their vote means something, regardless of where they live, is worth paying the price of having small extremist parties in parliament.

Couldn't agree more. In a democratic society no one should be left powerless and without representation, regardless of their views; yet that's exactly how FPTP leaves people. 

[BrutusTheBear]

Indeed virtue is nothing without power but it would appear that in order to achieve power we have to let go of our virtues which defeats the object.  If you want the power of wealth ergo the media behind you, you will have to let go and concede the very things you believe are just.  ...our democracy is fucked.   

Agree that PR  would be a good start to changing our democracy for the better.

[petejh]

Indeed virtue is nothing without power but it would appear that in order to achieve power we have to let go of our virtues which defeats the object.  If you want the power of wealth ergo the media behind you, you will have to let go and concede the very things you believe are just.  ...our democracy is fucked.   

Do you believe wealth and virtue are mutually exclusive Brutus? Are you Appollonius?

(I mean in Shark's case obviously yes, but as a general rule)

[mrjonathanr]

Indeed virtue is nothing without power but it would appear that in order to achieve power we have to let go of our virtues which defeats the object. 

Bizarre. Not really sure why you think this since I don't see any evidence for it, but if you really believe it, you are doomed to failure. If you frame the terms of success as completely impossible to achieve, why bother when you can only fail? It's neurotic.

Do bear in mind that Blair's stewardship achieved something; Corbyn's gift is 5 more years for the Tories to grind the faces of the poor. And in style!