[tomtom]

The reports are that the final majority is 80 seats (365 won). However I though that there were 650 mps, 4 speakers and 7 Sinn Fein. Therefore 320 seats required for a majority. How does one get to the 80 figure?

A typo?

I think its 324 to have a majority. So if the Tories get 365.  648 - 365 = 283 seats left over
365-283 = 82,

[Oldmanmatt]

Party[8]   Seats   Votes
Total   Gains   Losses   Net +/-   % seats   Total votes   % votes   Change
SNP   48   13   0   Increase13   81.36   1,242,380   45   Increase8.1
Conservative   6   0   7   Decrease7   10.17   692,939   25.1   Decrease3.5
Labour   1   0   6   Decrease6   1.69   511,838   18.6   Decrease2.8
Liberal Democrats   4   1   1   Steady   6.77   263,417   9.5   Increase2.8
Scottish Green   0   0   0   Steady   —   28,122   1   Increase0.8
Brexit Party   0   0   0      —   13,243   0.5   Increase0.5
UKIP   0   0   0   Steady   —   3,303   0.1   Decrease0.1
Others   0   0   0   Steady   —   3,819   0.1   Increase0.1
2,759,061‬   68.1   Increase1.6


If you can read that, SNP took more of the popular vote than the Cons and Lab combined, in Scotland.

So, a second Indy ref would seem odds on.

[tomtom]

Politics can GO AND FUCK OFF for a good few months/years.

[James Malloch]

The reports are that the final majority is 80 seats (365 won). However I though that there were 650 mps, 4 speakers and 7 Sinn Fein. Therefore 320 seats required for a majority. How does one get to the 80 figure?

A typo?

I think its 324 to have a majority. So if the Tories get 365.  648 - 365 = 283 seats left over
365-283 = 82,

Thanks. Though I assumed a majority would refer to the voting majority - I.e. amount over half the voting numbers. But I guess that if everyone toes the party line the majority is c.80 in that way.

[Oldmanmatt]

One last stat, that will be crucial in five years time.

According to the ONS and Statista in 2018, 15.83M of the UK population were aged 60 or over, or more than the total number of Con votes, UK wide.

Over the next five years, ~11M youths will come of voting age.

The biggest single tranche/demographic  (4.7M) of current 50-55 year olds, will be hitting that age then. So, looking at how they voted now, will be important.
Remember, they will be staring down a greatly raised retirement age, so likely won’t “feel so old”.
Likely to be healthier too.

[joeisidle]

Whilst we're all sharing narratives and Guardian articles, here's the one that struck a chord with me, particularly in the way it argues why this shouldn't be a simple 'Corbynism vs the centre ground' debate;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/13/labour-why-lost-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-media

Corbyn was, ultimately, a bit of a disaster. But whilst we're scrabbling around for solutions I still think it's important that Labour loss of control under more centrist leaders started in 2010 (not to mention what happened to the Lib Dems last night)

[Ged]

That's some interesting facts, but seems to get said every time. We now have 3 years worth of supposedly enraged young people who have become eligible to vote since the referendum, but doesn't seem to have made much difference. Do people's political views change as they get older?

[tomtom]

The enraged youth are generally in metropolitan areas whereas rural/post industrial towns are where the old gits live. So unless you can get the woke youth to head back to Stockton/Workington/Blythe from London where they have fled, it’ll be the same.

[teestub]

Matt, aren’t people’s voting habits shown to move right with age, and as such what people are voting for now may not be a good indication of what they will vote when older?

Assume it’s too early for any by age breakdown of this result, but will be interesting to see how much yoof went with Johnson.

[Oldmanmatt]

Matt, aren’t people’s voting habits shown to move right with age, and as such what people are voting for now may not be a good indication of what they will vote when older?

Assume it’s too early for any by age breakdown of this result, but will be interesting to see how much yoof went with Johnson.

I’m wondering. I’m thinking about relative fitness levels and health and how that affects world view.
I’m thinking about the very different childhoods of my generation and that of those 5 or more years older.
For instance, Empire was long gone and most WW2 veterans too old to feature in my non-family socialisation. I’m pretty sure we were the last Generation to have the Saturday matinee war movie (B&W), a thing that slid into irrelevance by my early teens anyway, having been supplanted by far more irreverent fare, such as Kelly’s Heroes etc before losing out to Veitnam self flagellation.

From my age onward, life was very very different.
The ~3M angry youths  if the last 3 years? Not enough to dent anything, I suspect. Now, give it another 5 and a few more Boomers shuffling off... 

[Ged]

My school held a mock election this week. The green party won by quite a long way, and this is a school in a massively Conservative area. I find it hard to believe that in 15 years time this will be a green constituency. I think that enraged youth often change their minds. Don't know why. Losing the innocence of simple ideals? Bogged down in money? Cynicism? The reality of actually casting a vote and bowing to family pressures/traditions?

[petejh]

Where's Nostradamus..?
(Offwidth)

[James Malloch]

My school held a mock election this week. The green party won by quite a long way, and this is a school in a massively Conservative area. I find it hard to believe that in 15 years time this will be a green constituency. I think that enraged youth often change their minds. Don't know why. Losing the innocence of simple ideals? Bogged down in money? Cynicism? The reality of actually casting a vote and bowing to family pressures/traditions?

They've not yet been lured by jobs, competition, having to pay for things, thinking about inheritance windfalls, or have as much of an appreciation of how taxes etc affect the lives they want to live. Maybe...

Though the way the work place is changing hopefully people will remain more left as they age. There is much more of an eco focus on things which I never had 15-20 years ago, hopefully getting people engaged in that via documentaries such as Attenborough's will help sow seeds...

[Will Hunt]

Where's Nostradamus..?
(Offwidth)

Depriving me (and others tbf) of our smugness by busying himself with finding a suitably appetising hat.

[webbo]

Matt, aren’t people’s voting habits shown to move right with age, and as such what people are voting for now may not be a good indication of what they will vote when older?

Assume it’s too early for any by age breakdown of this result, but will be interesting to see how much yoof went with Johnson.

Have yours? Mine haven’t I might not vote Communist these days but then again, they don’t seem to stand for election in North Yorkshire.

[teestub]

Have yours? Mine haven’t I might not vote Communist these days but then again, they don’t seem to stand for election in North Yorkshire.

Here’s an article about it, as usual not straightforwards https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics

[Will Hunt]

They called us the "Centrist Dads". When we told them that Corbyn would lead us to a Tory government, they posted the crying laughing emoji. When we pointed out his unpopularity they told us we'd been brainwashed by Murdoch. They called us Red Tories and Blue Labour.

Politics is not about getting what you want. It's not about getting what I want. It's about finding what you and I can live with, thus commanding the support of the electorate.

It's obvious, but Labour failed to do this spectacularly and (worse) proudly. They revelled in alienating the members of the electorate that they'd always relied on in the past. People with common, vulgar opinions like keeping a nuclear deterrent, making sure that those in work are better off than those on benefits, and talking tough on crime and terrorism. You don't have to give everything, but you have to meet them halfway. The best thing that Corbyn seemed to be able to offer was to nationalise everything from utilities to transport to fucking tea towels. Why? Well because that's what the dogma decrees isn't it?
These blue collar voters aren't daft. They know that this stuff will be paid for by them somehow: be it through a government levy or by paying a private company.

The finding of the compromise is what politicians wistfully or disingenuously call "bringing the country together". All we are left with now is a tug of war between two halves of the electorate, with a winner-takes-all approach to the spoils.

I could go on and on about the mistakes that Labour have made. The ingrained terror of a debt crisis that exists within the general population; the disassociation between votes and impact on public services; the inability to empathise with people who are suffering but whom you do not know personally; the devastating beauty of the slogan "Get Brexit Done"; antisemitism; the IRA; the demonisation of anybody with the temerity to have an undefined amount of money deemed to be "too much"; and a filter bubble which could not be pricked because any criticism levelled at Corbyn was dismissed as an MSM plot.

[TobyD]

I don't think it could be any more clear that it's both Corbyn and Corbynism that is at fault. If momentum install another clone with Len McCluskey pulling the strings, welcome to over a decade more conservative government.

If you can't beat a man who is credibly accused of siphoning public funds to a model he's been shagging, a proven serial liar, serial adulterer, and who also fucks up several election interviews by nicking a journalists phone and hiding in a fridge ... then who can you beat?

Bets for the conservative cabinet reshuffle: JRM out? No need to keep the erg on board anymore after all, and he's proved an even bigger liability than Johnson but without the public appeal. I wonder if Matt Hancock will survive as well.
How the hell are the conservatives going to keep their voters in vastly different areas of the country all happy?

[TobyD]

Just read this article:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/12/why-voters-trust-certain-politicians-even-when-they-know-they-re-lying

Labour clearly needs a serial liar to outlie Johnson to win.

[sdm]

They don't have any need to keep their voters all over the country happy. They don't need an election for another 5 years and they have such a huge majority that it doesn't matter if there's a few casualties along the way.

Johnson has never been afraid of dropping people as soon as they have served their purpose for him.

It is possible he will drop the ERG and the hardliners and move to a more moderate position, closer to the Johnson we saw in London. It is equally possible he will drop the few remaining moderates and we will see a sharp lurch to the right and an even harder exit.

He will continue to do what is best for Boris Johnson but which direction he perceives that to be, I'm not sure.

[highrepute]

, welcome to over a decade more conservative government.

Historically majorities this big take at least one election to overturn so we're already looking at 10 years of Conservative government.

[TobyD]

, welcome to over a decade more conservative government.

Historically majorities this big take at least one election to overturn so we're already looking at 10 years of Conservative government.

Definitely, but politics at the moment isn't showing many signs of conforming to prescedent. If, in 5 years leaving the EU hasn't brought any sunlit uplands, transformed run down areas of the UK or affected immigration so much that anyone notices, I have difficulty foreseeing people in Burnley, Bolsover etc etc turning out to vote conservative again. But you never know, Johnson might achieve all those things. Maybe.

[shark]

The figures show that it was an election lost by Labour (down 6% I think) rather than won by the Tories (up 1% I think).

Voters have given Boris the benefit of the doubt rather than a ringing endorsement. He’s got a lot of hyperbole to live up to.

Next election still up for grabs by Labour I think depending on how they react now.

[Offwidth]

Where's Nostradamus..?
(Offwidth)

I've been unwell and travelling and always said a Boris working majority was a big risk. My disappointment maybe even became physically manifest, as the election day saw an acceleration of one of the strangest cold virus attacks that I have ever ever experienced. Anyhow I voted green in a safe Labour seat, as I advised others to in similar seats, and my 'big name' Change MP, Chris Leslie, got an electoral beating, as did Anna Soubry down the road.  My new MP is a local 23 year old  Labour socialist. I half watched most of the election (in accomodation near Stanstead), as I felt so rough that I couldn't sleep, and flew to Turin yesterday where we ambled round the city ( just missed a Greta speech!), and then I half-slept again, in a daze, for 14 hours. I'm feeling a little better today and listened to IFSC delegates gossip over breakfast, after they passsed condolences on to Lynn and I over brexit.

On my English predictions, well they were wrong and that was obvious from the time of the exit polls (I was right in Scotland... more sensible people on average). My view on why the result occurred  is a bit different to others here. My biggest concern is still that the educated progressive voters clearly did not vote tactically en masse. If you look through the results, at least 20, and  maybe as many as 30 seats could have been won if such progressives had been less tribal and less attached to a silly belief that in the flawed electoral system, that  FPTP is, that you should vote for the party you most believe in.  Those seats would have not have been enough though, as, in those northern and midlands areas Labour deprived seats, there was a vote swing of typically 15% against the Labour party.. the second big factor. Gina Millar made the point early am on Friday that the leave voters seemed if anything to have voted more tactically than the remain voters; this included more of those who didn't normally vote but had turned out to vote leave and again this week... the third factor. For all the problems with Corbyn's leadership I'm not sure any likely leader could have stopped this response from the working class ex Labour voter front. Labour is too detached from its traditional base and is doomed if it doesn't resolve this soon... the problem is more Momentum than Corbyn.

I said here before, that there was no point in trying to convince this large number of older working class ex Labour voters, who voted leave, to vote Labour this time. However I also said their votes were factored in to the polls. What I missed was the size of this effect and that there was also, from turnout, a cancellation of the youth-vote, pro-Labour effect, by the 'disaffected rare voter effect' (people who didn't normally vote but turned out to vote leave... this group were the main reason the referendum polls were wrong). Back to those working class Labour areas, when your community and social media bubble had a major narrative that brexit was anything from OK to vital, and Corby was anything from useless to evil, their voting patterns were inevitable. However, I refuse to see these people as stupid, as you need to be brave to vote against the common knowledge in any social or political bubble.  The stupid people were the educated middle classes who should have known better, who supported Boris the liar, or if they opposed him, didn't vote tactically. They knew what brexit meant and that the threats to the UK of Corbyn, especially given the election math, were mostly made up 'bs' from dishonest right wing influencers. Also, the business, industrial, economic and professional classes who were vocal before the referendum but muted this time. The TV media also gave Boris way too easy a ride. Good moderate people and experts were not calling out the dangers of Boris's lies enough. I'd add that too many of the well educated middle classes of the UK, who knew the poor really needed more help after austertiy, didn't prioritise this enough... they used their intelligence and influence to mostly navigate around our creaking public sector systems, whilst those deprived ex Labour voters were fucked by it, time and time again. If their treatment is not changed soon this will lead to social unrest, worse than during Maggie's years;  it will be fun to see how these new local tory ideological minded  MPs will cope with their constituency work (too many are like Corbinista MPs in reverse).

Like Matt upthread, my main hope for the future is that Boris has stitched himself up so well with this election win that he is doomed. On brexit, the 'unicorn' trade deals with the EU and US, that are mutually incompatible, will hit him hard and eat political energy. He either has to choose a softer brexit than he planned (bypassing the ERG and annoying the US) with good EU alignment, or, something like Canada (where time is way too short given his supposed negotiation time red lines) risking no deal. He has lost all his best MPs for attracting future middle class swing votors for the next election ... the few new moderate tory stars will take years to start to shine. His party is a aged dinosaur detached from the reality of ordinary life in the UK, reactionary, greedy and racist, and will contine to feed the Parliamentary party mainly new raw meat; Torygraph, Excess, Fail and Scum headlines in this election were as rabid as they have ever been.  The public sector is in a terrible mess following a decade of tory austerity and his planned headline investments to the NHS, schools and police won't even reverse the problems of the last ten years and will soon lead to various mini crises.  In arguably the areas of biggest UK local needs, big local council services, more austerity is planned. I can see life expectancies to continue declining, as right across social care things are struggling so much and there is no spare system capacity when things become acute. The UK union is at serious threat in Scotland and NI. The clock is also ticking on the desperately urgent need for global action to tackle climate change and his party are full of climate change deniers. Boris's stated desire, in his post results speech to the people, for everyone  to now come together (after all he has done to gain and retain power), is a sick joke.

[mrjonathanr]

You won’t see Labour in power while McCluskey is kingmaker.
(In response to Shark).