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2019 December General Election (Read 166178 times)

TobyD

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#25 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 01:37:50 pm
I'm pretty sceptical about detailed polling at the moment, give it a few weeks for politicians to either manage to inspire voters or screw up royally and things might be a little more predictable. At the moment, the Brexit party is an unknown quantity as they're yet to decide which seats to contest. I think the Labour leave seats will be a big ask for the Conservative party as they're a really toxic brand in so many areas, but that doesn't mean they won't manage it.
I'm struggling to see that this election will be good for Labour, although if you are a centrist lefty, then this would almost certainly result in Corbyn being replaced, which would probably improve their future electoral prospects

tommytwotone

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#26 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 01:53:23 pm
But you'll have to live through 5 years of very right wing BoJo Tory government while that happens. Not much of a silver lining that.

Will Hunt

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#27 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 01:55:36 pm
The tories are currently about 10% less far ahead in the polls than when the election was called in 2017 and a few percent less than the final pre-election polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/theresa-may-calls-for-general-election-in-bid-to-secure-brexit-mandate

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/tories-on-12-point-lead-over-labour-in-final-pre-election-poll

Some more analysis:
https://www.ft.com/content/bb027040-fa65-11e9-98fd-4d6c20050229

But this is not the 2017 election. As I recall, that election had a reasonable focus on domestic issues, while one thing that pundits seem to agree on is that this will be a Brexit election - an arena in which Labour are significantly weaker. Labour was also up against a shockingly bad campaigner (remember May didn't even have the charisma to show up to the leader's debate). Johnson brings all the advantages of populism and combines it with the long term supposed seriousness and credibility of the Tory party. He would be tough to beat with a Labour leader who wasn't weighed down by the baggage of anti-semitism and policies that are seen as communist by much of middle England.

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#28 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 02:13:06 pm
I expect Johnson will Dodge as many TV election debates as he can get away with too. He's been pretty good at making sure he's unavailable for PMQs. When he has taken part in debates, interviews or unscripted speeches, he has struggled to string 2 content sentences together.

SA Chris

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#29 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 02:33:50 pm
Never did Donald Trump any harm.

Wait....

T_B

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#30 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 02:44:31 pm

I'm struggling to see that this election will be good for Labour, although if you are a centrist lefty, then this would almost certainly result in Corbyn being replaced, which would probably improve their future electoral prospects

Yes, that's the only positive outcome I can see.

As to poles, I think more voters than ever will lie about how they intend to vote.

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#31 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 02:55:59 pm

As to poles, I think more voters than ever will lie about how they intend to vote.

I thought EU Citizen weren't allowed to vote?

Will Hunt

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#32 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 03:13:49 pm

I'm struggling to see that this election will be good for Labour, although if you are a centrist lefty, then this would almost certainly result in Corbyn being replaced, which would probably improve their future electoral prospects

Yes, that's the only positive outcome I can see.


I wouldn't be so sure about Corbyn falling on his sword. He's stubborn and might try to hang on. For how long depends on the magnitude of his defeat. Even when he goes, his replacement will be decided by the party. Who knows what the membership is like now, but if it's remained much the same as that which elected Corbyn then we'll end up with another old schooler and all the problems that go with that.

However. Momentum do seem to be slowing down - they tried and failed to de-select two MPs recently. And there is less Corbyn fervour around now. I think his appeal has become less broad. There might be lots of people who were motivated to join the party and vote for him who now lose interest, allowing a more moderate candidate to take over.

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#33 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 05:03:46 pm
I'm fully aware it's not 2017. However all the points indicating the tories will do better (eg: BJ a better campaigner than May, Corbyn greatly weakened) are countered by other, possibly stronger, factors (resurgent Lib dems, loss of Scottish tory seats, a PM who is a plain liar who can't deliver, leading a party where power is with the ERG loons with the Brexit party on their heels). Prof Curtice is pretty smart and incredibly well informed and says the same just from polling data, ignoring any campaign changes... 100+ MPs likely not from the two main parties, which makes any majority hard and Boris needs that (as despite what McDonnell says the Lib Dems won't deal with him) whereas Labour doesn't need a majority to be in government as the possibilities of deals exist.

Those who won't risk supporting Labour in key marginals because they are annoyed with Corbyn need to seriously ask themselves why they would risk bringing to power a highly dangerous deregulating tory party, led by a dishonest egotist, at massive expense to the economy, with EU regulatory checks for workers rights and ecological protections removed. What damage could Corbyn really do in a minority government (the best it looks like he can realistically achieve) that comes even close to that?

I'd add that popularism may have worked in the aged tory party membership but most swing voter types and intelligent typical tory voting people I know just don't buy such crap... they will listen to the likes of Hammond and Clarke (and will I think often vote Lib Dem against ERG tory candiadates to avoid a highly damaging hard brexit). Too many progressives are currently assuming the voters will let them down, whereas the best outcome will be from fighting hard to ensure we get the best outcome we can (a progressive alliance for a Labour minority government that will probably go for a referendum on a choice of remain or a soft brexit, alongside trying to rebuild the damage done by austerity).
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 05:27:50 pm by Offwidth »

Oldmanmatt

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#34 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 08:35:02 pm
I wonder if the Tory faithful, are paying attention to who’s quitting the party and standing down?
Even serving cabinet ministers.
Aka: people who know who and what those in charge actually are.

tomtom

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#35 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 08:43:45 pm
I wonder if the Tory faithful, are paying attention to who’s quitting the party and standing down?
Even serving cabinet ministers.
Aka: people who know who and what those in charge actually are.

As has happened to the Labour Party over the last 2-3 years....

Nigel

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#36 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 09:26:05 pm
I wouldn't be so sure about Corbyn falling on his sword. He's stubborn and might try to hang on. For how long depends on the magnitude of his defeat. Even when he goes, his replacement will be decided by the party. Who knows what the membership is like now, but if it's remained much the same as that which elected Corbyn then we'll end up with another old schooler and all the problems that go with that.

I'm reading your above point as being, effectively, that the Labour party members are either always wrong / sometimes wrong / not "proper" labour / shouldn't be allowed / trusted to pick the leader. Almost like you wish Labour was, frankly, a completely different party? These do already exist if you want that.

 My guess would be that Labour will do a lot better than current assumptions in the upcoming election so Corbyn will probably still be in place. Alternatively the present polls will be right (ha! Chinny reckon emoji) and maybe you'll get your centrist leader of the opposition for 5 years while Johnson and the gang go mad.




Nigel

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#37 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 09:47:44 pm
So, Farage could campaign on the hard brexit line - which would certainly draw some from the Tory vote. Boris on his deal. Labour on fuck knows what fudge of a deal/no deal/rederendum and Lib Dems on revoke.

Farage will definitely campaign on no deal, no "could" about it!

I suspect Boris will campaign on his deal yes, but along with no deal being back on the table, however that remains to be seen. There will be many voices in his party, particularly in the grassroots and maybe increasingly in any new intake of MPs, who will call for this I suspect.

Labour will campaign on their policy of negotiating a soft Brexit deal (customs union and regulatory alignment to single market) then putting this vs remain in a 2nd ref. No deal is not any part of it, nor is fudge. It really is not a complicated or opaque proposition and I find it baffling that people seem to claim it is.

Lib Dems will campaign on revoke and remain and no doubt they mean it, but obviously this is not a serious policy proposition as they will not get a majority so it will not be implemented. Effectively they are campaigning to soften the policy of any prospective coalition partner.

Will Hunt

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#38 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 10:15:11 pm
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

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#39 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 10:47:27 pm
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

That is the received wisdom certainly.

Nearly 13 million people voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017. 13.6 million for the tories. Total 32 million voters. Unless the electorate has been swapped in the past two years I'm not sure England is as "jam-packed with small c conservatives" as you claim. And playing devil's advocate for a bit, if that claim is true, then why on earth are "small c conservatives" going to be nailed on to vote for the Boris rather than Corbyn? Brexit on Boris's terms with all the attendant damage to the union and the economy is hardly small c.

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#40 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 11:01:39 pm
Blair won elections because he could appeal to small c England whilst taking for granted traditional Labour voters because, in his words, ‘they had nowhere else to go.’

Once old Labour voters got wise to the fact New Labour was essentially Thatcherism, they just stopped voting and the result was the Brown and Milliband elections.

To claim Labour win elections when they’re campaigning on the centre ground is quite clearly not true, and hasn’t been since 2005. And they only just scraped a win then. .

TobyD

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#41 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 11:53:18 pm
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

That is the received wisdom certainly.

Nearly 13 million people voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017. 13.6 million for the tories. Total 32 million voters. Unless the electorate has been swapped in the past two years I'm not sure England is as "jam-packed with small c conservatives" as you claim. And playing devil's advocate for a bit, if that claim is true, then why on earth are "small c conservatives" going to be nailed on to vote for the Boris rather than Corbyn? Brexit on Boris's terms with all the attendant damage to the union and the economy is hardly small c.

No, but most people aren't terribly politically engaged.  What i hear from people I work with is 'I'm sick of Brexit,  boris seems to be trying and parliament is stopping him'. I don't remotely agree with them, but I think most people will now regard Corbyn as a loser or an antisemite or both. Many will vote Brexit party as they hate the Conservatives without any clear reasoning,  and won't have the first clue who Jo Swinson is. 

Once old Labour voters got wise to the fact New Labour was essentially Thatcherism, they just stopped voting and the result was the Brown and Milliband elections.

There are so many wrong things about this, starting with the reasons for Gordon Brown losing: 2008 financial crisis  plus him being uncharismatic and a poor campaigner perhaps?

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#42 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 31, 2019, 06:46:11 am
The point I was trying to make was that once voter apathy set in in Labour heartlands it’s almost impossible to win them back with more of the same.

Financial deregulation, continuing privatisation and neglecting unions will have alienated a lot of the old Labour movement/voters.



tomtom

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#43 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 31, 2019, 07:44:15 am
Thought these numbers were interesting

Quote
In 2017, there were 8.2 million registered to vote by post - 18% of the electorate.

Turnout among people who complete a form and put it in the post box was 85% compared with 66% who could only vote at a polling station.

Oldmanmatt

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#44 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 31, 2019, 07:54:10 am
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

That is the received wisdom certainly.

Nearly 13 million people voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017. 13.6 million for the tories. Total 32 million voters. Unless the electorate has been swapped in the past two years I'm not sure England is as "jam-packed with small c conservatives" as you claim. And playing devil's advocate for a bit, if that claim is true, then why on earth are "small c conservatives" going to be nailed on to vote for the Boris rather than Corbyn? Brexit on Boris's terms with all the attendant damage to the union and the economy is hardly small c.

No, but most people aren't terribly politically engaged.  What i hear from people I work with is 'I'm sick of Brexit,  boris seems to be trying and parliament is stopping him'. I don't remotely agree with them, but I think most people will now regard Corbyn as a loser or an antisemite or both. Many will vote Brexit party as they hate the Conservatives without any clear reasoning,  and won't have the first clue who Jo Swinson is. 



This.

Unless your echo chamber is uniquely (or predominantly) Labour supporters, how can you not see this. I hear a huge amount of vitriol against Corbyn from what you’d call “small c’s”. He’s deeply unpopular.
Boris carries more disengaged voters (headline readers) because he at least has a reputation as “jolly”.

Like it or lump it, presentation trumps substance with a massive swathe of the population.
Many won’t see the strings, the cracked and peeling paint of the set or the dirty theatre floor; as long as the puppet is bright enough and the music catchy.

TobyD

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#45 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 31, 2019, 09:55:28 am
The point I was trying to make was that once voter apathy set in in Labour heartlands it’s almost impossible to win them back with more of the same.

Financial deregulation, continuing privatisation and neglecting unions will have alienated a lot of the old Labour movement/voters.

Fair enough,  that's considerably more balanced, I think you have a point there, but Brown and Milliband were in no way Thatcherites
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

That is the received wisdom certainly.

Nearly 13 million people voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017. 13.6 million for the tories. Total 32 million voters. Unless the electorate has been swapped in the past two years I'm not sure England is as "jam-packed with small c conservatives" as you claim. And playing devil's advocate for a bit, if that claim is true, then why on earth are "small c conservatives" going to be nailed on to vote for the Boris rather than Corbyn? Brexit on Boris's terms with all the attendant damage to the union and the economy is hardly small c.

No, but most people aren't terribly politically engaged.  What i hear from people I work with is 'I'm sick of Brexit,  boris seems to be trying and parliament is stopping him'. I don't remotely agree with them, but I think most people will now regard Corbyn as a loser or an antisemite or both. Many will vote Brexit party as they hate the Conservatives without any clear reasoning,  and won't have the first clue who Jo Swinson is. 



This.

Unless your echo chamber is uniquely (or predominantly) Labour supporters, how can you not see this. I hear a huge amount of vitriol against Corbyn from what you’d call “small c’s”. He’s deeply unpopular.
Boris carries more disengaged voters (headline readers) because he at least has a reputation as “jolly”.

Like it or lump it, presentation trumps substance with a massive swathe of the population.
Many won’t see the strings, the cracked and peeling paint of the set or the dirty theatre floor; as long as the puppet is bright enough and the music catchy.

Both Johnson and Corbyn seem to have turned their parties into intolerant echo chambers, largely headed by very second rate MPs.  The list of quitting MPs would make a far better front bench than either of the main parties. It's a depressing prospect and I wish I could see some political light at the end of the tunnel.  IDS quoted today as saying that the conservative party are the Brexit party now is sickening,  and might hopefully lose him a lot of votes. Diane Abbot was given a rather soft ball interview on the today programme this morning,  and still didn't sound as though she really had a firm grasp of any issues.

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#46 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 31, 2019, 10:06:47 am

Many won’t see the strings, the cracked and peeling paint of the set or the dirty theatre floor; as long as the puppet is bright enough and the music catchy.

Sadly too damned true, especially if the reviews tell you how great the show is.

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#47 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 31, 2019, 11:45:55 am
Both Johnson and Corbyn seem to have turned their parties into intolerant echo chambers, largely headed by very second rate MPs.  The list of quitting MPs would make a far better front bench than either of the main parties.

I know you are not going this far, but I think it’s important to highlight that there are still a lot of very able and committed public servants amongst sitting MPs. The roll call at cabinet  is very depressing, I agree, for the reason you mentioned.

You also said Toby that people may regard Corbyn as an antisemite. I’d suggest that is because he really, really, is. I have held that view for a number of years, long before the headlines started to grow. A leader who condones antisemitism, perpetuates antisemitic tropes and tolerates the vilest of abuse towards Jewish party members with just a slap on the wrist for the perpetrators is an antisemite whether he recognises that in himself or not. Racists running the anti racist party- who’d have thought it?


Once old Labour voters got wise to the fact New Labour was essentially Thatcherism,

Compare the records and this does not really stand up. Dismay at some elements of Thatcherism fused with centre-left policies I get; but Thatcherism, no.

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#48 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 31, 2019, 01:21:12 pm
I think the Tory party may have a big problem with their lurch to the right. In Cameron’s days there was at least a veneer of people who seemed to care about social policy and inequality. Now there are none. The Cabinet is full of hard brexit Spartans or wannabe Spartans. ERG nutters are now to the fore rather than the loony fringe.

They have now vacated a large chunk of the centre ground. Who picks this up who knows?

As a LP member and anti-corbynista (or non?) it feels as if the party and the country have got used to him - and the shouty grey man isn’t quite as offpiting as he once was. I dunno - maybe I’ve got bored of getting annoyed with him.

The LP brexit stance at first seems confusing - but it does offer a get out for remain and soft leave voters. That may be a stroke of genius or (more likely) ineffective....

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#49 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 31, 2019, 01:27:50 pm
Can we please not use the word Spartans for these people, or any other words they’ve chosen themselves to try and sound cool.

This, along with the continuous quoting of ‘No. 10 sources’ When they brief total bullshit has totally put me off Twitter and the news in general!

 

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