[TobyD]

I have a sneaking suspicion about the first paragraph of Offwidth’s last post.

I sometimes feel like Labour, or any of the opposition parties, actually don’t  want to win.
...
Government is a poison chalice, for the next five years.

I know what you mean Matt, but I think you may be overestimating Labour's competence. Some of the more moderate MP s may be thinking along these lines but I really get the impression that McDonnell and Corbyn believe that they're on the brink of a socialist utopia and people will vote for it. I know polls can be unreliable but I increasingly feel that Corbyn in number ten isn't much more likely than Swinson winning the majority.

McDonnell is certainly far more politically competent than Corbyn, but I still think he's got too caught up with waxing lyrical about his ideals and forgotten a hefty dose of reality.

[abarro81]

Really? I've thought him excellent in interviews. The contrast between him and the Conservative guy on Andrew Marr seemed stark to me

[Offwidth]

The local progressive activists I know are working very hard to win seats, irrespective of the mistakes of their leadership. Word is the tory and brexit activists in contrast are very quiet in my local marginals and pissing off key locals. If that You Gov poll is right, their adjusted prediction of a tory majority of 28 seats will be very much an upper limit, for the reasons I've already discussed. The tactical voting sites show how in at least 30 seats the tories can be beaten with tactical voting on the current numbers. This would give a net no change or slight reversal given predictions in some of those N and midlands Labour  seats  (even assuming Lib Dems don't vote tactically for Labour in the less marginal seats). I suspect in practice some city Labour seats in the N and midlands wiill hold and tactical voting will not meet the full targets. Irrespective, no one can predict  the outcome with certainty and a Labour minority is still very possible.

Local hustings are available on YouTube, to judge the quality of some of these tory candidates predicted (wrongly) to win easily, as in Broxtow where I think Labour will win.

[Somebody's Fool]

Johnson does not have a look about him which suggests he’s cruising to victory.

[Oldmanmatt]

Johnson does not have a look about him which suggests he’s cruising to victory.

How can you tell?

Are you hiding in the fridge with him?

[TobyD]

Really? I've thought him excellent in interviews. The contrast between him and the Conservative guy on Andrew Marr seemed stark to me

I listened to his interview on the today program this morning, and he was remarkably flat and starting to sound like he was irritable and ranting. His response to being interviewed with a billionaire was better. He's undoubtedly a more coherent speaker than Corbyn, and far more astute, but he still believes in a degree of socialism that I find baffling.

[TobyD]

Johnson does not have a look about him which suggests he’s cruising to victory.

If only. His repeated avoiding any scrutiny and scorn for the media should really stop anyone voting for him but sadly, many people seem to like populist liars who treat women like sh*t.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/11/boris-johnson-hides-in-fridge-to-avoid-piers-morgan-interview?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[SamT]

Johnson does not have a look about him which suggests he’s cruising to victory.

How can you tell?

Are you hiding in the fridge with him?

Two anecdotal comments from the last couple of days.

Father in law - canvasing for Labour up in Workington/Whitehaven areas - very depressed area, long forgotten by Westminster, (if they even know where it is).  Hard hit by austerity, not much in the way of job prospects/prosperity in the area. ... all voting conservative. He just cant get his head round it and no amount of common sense spoken on the door stop will sway them.  They all firmly cite Brexit and Leaving as their main reason.

Book keeper at work this morning - From North Sheffield - High Green, home of the Arctic Monkeys, normally Labour stronghold,
- "everyone round our way is voting conservative".

Again - a strong leave area I suspect

[SA Chris]

I sometimes feel like Labour, or any of the opposition parties, actually don’t  want to win.

Even if it all goes their way, I don't think Labour or any of the opposition parties have a chance of an outright win. As has been said before. Them having less seats than they already have, or even preventing an overall majority is a positive outcome.

[gme]

I sometimes feel like Labour, or any of the opposition parties, actually don’t  want to win.

Even if it all goes their way, I don't think Labour or any of the opposition parties have a chance of an outright win. As has been said before. Them having less seats than they already have, or even preventing an overall majority is a positive outcome.

I really dont see why any party would want to lead us for this next Parliament as its not going to be good. Brexit will need to be sorted and i am 99% certain we will leave even if we went to a 2nd ref.

To me the Cons seem to be very aware of this so have not promised that much in the way of extra stuff above what they have already budgeted for. Labour on the other hand have promised the world and wont be able to do any of it in the next 5 years as it will probably take that long to sort out brexit if we go back to the EU then back to the country and what ever that entails. 

Whether i like it or not i believe we need to get Brexit out of the way and live with the ensuing mess before we can actually start looking at sensible ideas again.

Neither of the two main parties offer anything to the majority middle ground of the country and neither have got my vote, not that its worth shite as i live in a Tory safe zone. God help us if we end up with a hung parliament.

[abarro81]

Quickest way to get Brexit out of the way is to have a 2nd referendum and vote remain...

[gme]

Quickest way to get Brexit out of the way is to have a 2nd referendum and vote remain...

Remain would loose the vote. Sorry but it would.

At the very best it might win by a similar margin and the whole roundabout we are in now would just continue.

[abarro81]

Remain would loose the vote. Sorry but it would.

Care to evidence that?

Top 2 results on google for "remain leave polls" suggests a notable shift (prob not so much from mind changing as old people dying and young people entering the electorate I'd guess)

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-britain-against-leaving-eu-as-poll-of-polls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-leave-the-european-union-asked-after-the-referendum/

[gme]

I know a lot of people who voted to leave and very very few who have changed there mind. And also a fair few remainers that have changed there mind.

I think quite a lot of leave voters don’t say anything as they stand to get ripped apart. You place a cross on a paper in confidence.

If there is such a big swing in the leave remain vote why is it not being seen in the election polls. They all suggest  that the brexit rhetoric of Johnson is improving his majority.

[T_B]

Father in law - canvasing for Labour up in Workington/Whitehaven areas - very depressed area, long forgotten by Westminster, (if they even know where it is).  Hard hit by austerity, not much in the way of job prospects/prosperity in the area. ... all voting conservative. He just cant get his head round it and no amount of common sense spoken on the door stop will sway them.  They all firmly cite Brexit and Leaving as their main reason.

I grew up in Whitehaven. I can fully get my head around it. For the first 18 years of my life I pretty much met 3 black people. One lad at our school of 1000 pupils and two adopted kids of my mother's friends who lived in London. Hardly any ethnic minorities climb and climbing was what I did out of school. Racism in West Cumbria is normal.

It's also tied up with Sellafied/Nuclear Power (THE major employer) and the narrative of "Great Britain" and "taking back control". The Tory MP who won the by-election in 2017 campaigned on a pro-nuclear stance.

It's very sad, but it's always been a neglected backwater, whoever has been in power.

[Paul B]

I know a lot of people who voted to leave and very very few who have changed there mind. And also a fair few remainers that have changed there mind.

And my family seem to be planning on voting against their (Lab) MP because of their (the MP's) pro remain stance despite their constituency voting otherwise. They feel it's a protest vote that wont have an effect on Labour being successful (locally and overall).

I'm aghast (my Dad was in the police, my Mum worked for the NHS). We've had many reasoned discussions now where when confronted with facts and fact checking they re-considered opinions but it's all been seemingly worthless.

Having worked in a climbing wall during a previous election it was quite upsetting to speak to many people on the way in who felt that voting was less important than the evening's AeroCap session. Please don't be that person.

[Falling Down]

If anyone can be arsed this is quite a good, if a bit long article on the choices and comparisons with previous elections.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n23/david-runciman/bj-plus-brexit-or-jc-plus-2-refs

[andy popp]

If anyone can be arsed this is quite a good, if a bit long article on the choices and comparisons with previous elections.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n23/david-runciman/bj-plus-brexit-or-jc-plus-2-refs

"In May 1979, when Thatcher first won, polling day was ‘cold with wintry showers, especially in the north." I remember it well. I was aged 15 and lying in a bed in Bristol Royal Infirmary, having just had my appendix removed. Waking up the morning before, in intense pain, my parents, being English to the core, insisted I do my (extensive) paper round first "and then see how you feel." Within minutes of returning home I was in an ambulance hurtling toward Bristol. I properly came to sometime on the afternoon of Election Day, just in time to start listening to the results come in and for my heart to start sinking.

Godspeed everyone.

[Oldmanmatt]

I know there is resistance to the notion of BBC bias, as an institution, amongst UKB posters, but...

Can we agree that one of their loudest voices, is, actually, pretty bloody partisan?

Criminal?

[teestub]

It’s certainly not something she should have reported by the sound of it, but is it a partisan statement? If you were a Labour supporter and read that would you not be more motivated to get out to vote with as many like minded people as possible?

[winhill]

The Fail is on top mad form reporting the idiotic Simon Wiesenthal Centre's label of Corbyn's Labour as the biggest world threat to jews... almost as if Israel is not surrounded by states that would love to destroy it and facing arab terrorism within.

Corbyn's been on the SWC list of threats for four years, since he became leader of the opposition. His highest previous position was second, in 2017, the other election year. Can you see how that works? He rises up the list as there becomes a chance he'll be Prime Minister. It unthinkable that a leader of a G7 country could be antisemitic, can you imagine the power that would create?

Labour created the EHRC to investigate racism and other inequalities, the only political party it has had to investigate was the BNP, til Corbyn happened along. Thousands of cases have been uncovered, the New Statesman has said he's unfit to be PM and the Guardian editorial today is only just short of it:

"Mr Corbyn’s own unpopularity could also scupper Labour in this election. His obdurate handling of the antisemitism crisis has disrupted the message of hope. Anything less than zero tolerance against racism tarnishes Labour’s credentials as an anti-racist organisation. The pain and hurt within the Jewish community, and the damage to Labour, are undeniable and shaming."

Try to imagine how this looks to those outside of the country, for orgs like the SWC or the ADL who expend their entire energies following and measuring antisemitism.

What, exactly, is the scale of the threat from the Leader of a G7 nation? If you don't know you can't tell Jews it's worth the risk.

[Bradders]

I know there is resistance to the notion of BBC bias, as an institution, amongst UKB posters, but...

Can we agree that one of their loudest voices, is, actually, pretty bloody partisan?

Criminal?

No... she's a reporter and it seems to me she's reported a piece of information she's been given and presumably therefore believes to be accurate. It doesn't sound like something she's made up to me. That's not partisan at all.

Was doing so illegal? Possibly. But that doesn't make it partisan.

[Bradders]

Anyway, if anyone wants some light relief today I'd encourage you to peruse the full list of parties standing candidates in the election. Some cracking names in there

[Will Hunt]

I think it was 2005 or 2010 that a man changed his name by deed poll to stand as Mr We Beat The Scum One Nil in Leeds Central. I wonder what he's doing right now.

[TobyD]

I know there is resistance to the notion of BBC bias, as an institution, amongst UKB posters, but...

Can we agree that one of their loudest voices, is, actually, pretty bloody partisan?

Criminal?

No... she's a reporter and it seems to me she's reported a piece of information she's been given and presumably therefore believes to be accurate. It doesn't sound like something she's made up to me. That's not partisan at all.

Was doing so illegal? Possibly. But that doesn't make it partisan.

I'd wholly agree with that. Straight afterwards she points out that postal votes would favour the conservative voting demographic anyway. Plus, anecdotally,  all you have ever heard for the last couple of months is people saying that they couldn't vote for Corbyn,  although they like labour's policies. 
I hope I'm wrong but I can't see Labour doing well at all,  as the referendum proves,  3 word slogans work.  Labour's is more than 5, and I feel that many people will have stopped listening by then.