[teestub]

Just had a look at ours: with the exception of a brief stint by the Common Wealth party after WW2 Skipton and Ripon (formerly Skipton) has been conservative since 1918!

[Offwidth]

I think you underestimate how many people are really worried about  climate change and other green issues. As most seats are safe seats the Greens could garner extra votes in the millions if most people followed my advice of voting green as a constructive protest vote in in such seats.

[Will Hunt]

I think you underestimate how many people are really worried about  climate change and other green issues. As most seats are safe seats the Greens could garner extra votes in the millions if most people followed my advice of voting green as a constructive protest vote in in such seats.

This may shock you, but the majority of voters actually don't read UKB, so I'm afraid this is actually quite an unlikely scenario.

[Will Hunt]

Not sure if anybody saw the focus group sessions on C4 news tonight. Worth catching on All 4 if your short of a horror film to watch tonight.
A room full of working class 2017 Labour voters unanimously agreeing that they couldn't vote for Jeremy Corbyn and admitting that they are considering voting Conservative and love Johnson's messages on Brexit.

Absolutely chilling.

[seankenny]

I actually really feel for Corbyn and Labour on this. They have to straddle two very different beasts to get anywhere in an election, but nevertheless o can’t help but feeling that a Remain argument from a leader they could respect might cut some ice.

Then again, maybe not. The desire to be punched in the face is strong, it seems.

[TobyD]

Not sure if anybody saw the focus group sessions on C4 news tonight. Worth catching on All 4 if your short of a horror film to watch tonight.
A room full of working class 2017 Labour voters unanimously agreeing that they couldn't vote for Jeremy Corbyn and admitting that they are considering voting Conservative and love Johnson's messages on Brexit.

Absolutely chilling.

Didn't see it, but that's been a very noticeable theme in vox pops on the radio for ages, and something I've heard from acquaintances

[petejh]

How to not win an election, 101

Context
During the election campaign a convicted terrorist who has been released early from prison, via a confusing chain of sentencing reviews and law changes that some members of the public rightly or wrongly believe are the doing of your party,  stabs to death two people in a frightening terror attack at the same location as another recent similar terrorist attack which traumatised the public.

The genius part:
Respond to an interviewer asking if convicted terrorists should serve their full sentences with an earnest: 'not necessarily'.


Political genius

[TobyD]

How to not win an election, 101
...
The genius part:
Respond to an interviewer asking if convicted terrorists should serve their full sentences with an earnest: 'not necessarily'.
Political genius

Indeed. He might have been trying to be honest and equivacal but succeeded only in convincing probably quite a few people that he really is matey with terrorists and deserves the votes of precisely noone.
Sadly what Johnson has been coming out with is a good deal more odious, but will probably appeal to his voters.

[Offwidth]

I think you underestimate how many people are really worried about  climate change and other green issues. As most seats are safe seats the Greens could garner extra votes in the millions if most people followed my advice of voting green as a constructive protest vote in in such seats.

This may shock you, but the majority of voters actually don't read UKB, so I'm afraid this is actually quite an unlikely scenario.

I was pretty obviously talking in general and I am saying the same everywhere I visit and encouraging others to do the same. Plus UKB may be small but by the time  you look at friends of friends in the progressive bubble, If everyone here who thinks FPTP is broken campaigned on this, it could have a big influence in persuading many others that there is nothing unconscionable about gaming votes. With enough green minded people it might even go viral.

I believe this election is close and every little helps and alongside the stopping Boris message in marginals it's good to have a side mission for those who live in safe seats. Given Boris and climate change there really is no such thing as a wasted progressive vote in this election.

[tommytwotone]

Not sure if anybody saw the focus group sessions on C4 news tonight. Worth catching on All 4 if your short of a horror film to watch tonight.
A room full of working class 2017 Labour voters unanimously agreeing that they couldn't vote for Jeremy Corbyn and admitting that they are considering voting Conservative and love Johnson's messages on Brexit.

Absolutely chilling.

I watched this and wondered if Brutus / Offwidth had seen it.

[Offwidth]

I watched this and wondered if Brutus / Offwidth had seen it.

I've known it for a long time... it's part of why I'm so passionate. It's what Matt has been pointing out (and I've given up on such votors). The sadness in this, is these same people will be the ones who will suffer most under the chaos that will ensue if we elect Boris.

The referendum was a true popularist backlash in that the educational and age profiles were stark... unlike Trump which was a bit of popularism and mostly Republican loyalty. I'm still optimistic as the polls overall are still OK and the weird local effects of a brexit election will be key... I can see Labour winning some marginal tory seats in London, northern city seats that are very marginal might hold for Labour and northern towns that were solid Labour might go tory or even maybe Brexit. The battle is keeping hold of all but net 30, of mainly northern and midland Labour marginals  (where most climbers live) and not too many surprises, and hoping the Lib Dems get 10 or marginals in the S and SW. With Boris and no Ruth the tories are toast in Scotland.

[sheavi]

 With Boris and no Ruth the tories are toast in Scotland.

Current prediction is 10 Tory seats in Scotland.  Personalities not as important, seems pro-Brexit and anti-independence Scots will back the Tories enough so as not to loose too many setas. 

[Offwidth]

It's the same silly predictions as in England that show a comfortable Boris majority on the curtent polls. It's wrong but the question is by how much,  I still think the tories stand to lose up to 10 seats and there is over a week left yet. I agree the SNP may lose Fife to the Lib Dems but if scots want to stop Boris its usually much easier than in England to just choose the party most likely to beat the local tory MP or close tory challenger.  The stuff from the tories is completly opaque propaganda nonsense: it assumes someone should never vote SNP if they don't want independance... brexit is the issue right now and if the SNP are clearly the main tory challenger progressives should vote for them; they can vote how they believe on independance later, when the Boris brexit madness is stopped. An example of full scottish predictions is here (but won't properly account for tactical voting):

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_scot.html


As elsewhere, it would be good if progressives in safe seats seriously considered voting green.

[SA Chris]

Love to get shot of Andrew Bowie, he can fuck off with his ch-ch-changes.

[mrjonathanr]

Not much time for anything at mo, let alone posting a considered reply to Stu’s question.

I think Corbyn holds antisemític views and that makes him  a disgrace, but does not necessarily mean you should not vote for his party. It depends on the other guy too.

 Being pragmatic- in every sense- this makes the point pretty well.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/03/you-know-youre-not-legally-required-to-like-jeremy-corbyn-in-order-to-vote-for-him-right

[galpinos]

Pat Mountain, a cross between a Toast of London charcter and Nan from Catherine Tate. Obviously a safe hands appointment from UKIP:

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/1201509205364105218

The "other racist parties" slip in this clip is outstanding:

https://twitter.com/MrRoberts84/status/1201441826856722437

[tommytwotone]

Last night, I guess partly in despair after watching C4 News I had a slight revelation - I've pinpointed (one of) the thing(s) that sets my teeth on edge about Magic Grandpa.

I can't recall what it was in relation to - I think it was the London Bridge attack - but it's his tone when he does talk to the media.

He sounds like he's a slightly peeved customer on the phone to a call centre, who's been passed on to the third person in a row and is having to wearily run through the problem he's been having with his account yet again.

Add to this that (another of my peeves), when asked about a given issue (position on Brexit, Labour antisemitism...) his response is often to describe the process, and not how he feels about it, or what he would do about it - no wonder people see him as evasive, non-committal, or rather see Boris as decisive and invigorated by comparison. 

You can picture it now:

"...Emily - what we are doing about this is very clear - we're tabling a motion to the PLP, and when all opinions have been fully discussed a vote will be conducted, and once the outcome of that vote has been ratified there will be a committee decision at the next meeting of the..."

[duncan]

My constituency is Holborn and St Pancras. This has been solid Labour since it was created in 1983 and was 73% remain in 2016. In 2017, Keir Starmer recieved >50000 votes with a >300000 majority in 2017, more than the total number for all other candidates.

Do I hold my nose over Corbyn and support a reasonably effective local MP or do I protest and vote Green?

[Andy B]

If he’s got a majority of 300000 from 50000 votes, you should be ringing the electoral commission!

[Will Hunt]

Being pragmatic- in every sense- this makes the point pretty well.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/03/you-know-youre-not-legally-required-to-like-jeremy-corbyn-in-order-to-vote-for-him-right

Isn't it peculiar that this logic doesn't seem to cut any ice with Corbyn supporters when used to support someone like Jo Swinson, or indeed, anyone who isn't Jeremy Corbyn?

[Offwidth]

 I agree but I think such genuinely tribal numbers are dropping all the time.

Sometimes in the south (mainly London) the Lib Dems being too concerned about Corbyn can be the big problem. You've got to be a bit daft as a progressive to vote Lib Dem when the potential of an excellent Labour candidate to unseat IDS is on the cards.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/11/will-labour-faiza-shaheen-topple-iain-duncan-smith-chingford-and-woodford-green-tory-heartland

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/02/chingford-voters-seek-change-former-tory-heartland-marginal

[TobyD]

I agree but I think such genuinely tribal numbers are dropping all the time.

Sometimes in the south (mainly London) the Lib Dems being too concerned about Corbyn can be the big problem. You've got to be a bit daft as a progressive to vote Lib Dem when the potential of an excellent Labour candidate to unseat IDS is on the cards.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/11/will-labour-faiza-shaheen-topple-iain-duncan-smith-chingford-and-woodford-green-tory-heartland

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/02/chingford-voters-seek-change-former-tory-heartland-marginal

I take your point about voting tactically,  and partially agree, but I really think I'd struggle to feel okay about voting Labour even in this situation (hypothetical,  as I'm not, Sheffield Central is very Labour anyway) as I disagree too strongly with the views of many (not all) of the people at the head of the party. 
At the moment  Corbyn seems to be trying a balancing act to keep just enough people happy to get votes, having been a vocal advocate for revolutionary socialism for decades. Far from a new way of doing politics that he originally promised,  he increasingly seems almost Johnsonian in his ability to try to say anything to keep people happy. 
Conjecture only, I might think differently if my vote might unseat Ian Duncan Smith,  who is worse, however bad I think Corbyn might be. 

[Nutty]

Sometimes in the south (mainly London) the Lib Dems being too concerned about Corbyn can be the big problem. You've got to be a bit daft as a progressive to vote Lib Dem when the potential of an excellent Labour candidate to unseat IDS is on the cards.

Yes, but what are the root causes of this 'big problem'? FPTP, which Labour have never done anything to reform because it suits them (and which they have no proposals to change in their manifesto), and the Labour party's choice of leader. If the voters you wish to appeal to find your leader problematic, whose problem is that exactly?

Don't worry, this voter down south will tactically vote for Labour, but describing people you want to appeal to as daft for voting for the party they support isn't going to win much support. Should we just ban smaller parties and further polarise our politics?

[Offwidth]

It particularly applies to those voting Lib Dem in IDS's constituency as the opportunity for Labour to win this seat is just too great, as they are gaining local leverage and only need a few thousand. Plus its another extra seat Boris needs to win elsewhere. The Green candidate has already stood down. 

We have to live with FPTP for a while yet, so if people really dislike it they need to stop worrying about tactical voting and work it.

[Offwidth]

It should be an issue of logic for genuine Lib Dem supporters.

Lib Dems say the top priority is to stop brexit. Lib Dems say PR is important. 

Voting for Labour in that constituency and unseating a figurehead of tory idiocy on the subject  is obviously the best they can do to stop brexit. Voting tactically is just a crude form of PR (the prefered candidate for Lib Dem voters would be eliminated in a PR syatem and votes would transfer to the next preference).