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2019 December General Election (Read 166221 times)

tomtom

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2019 December General Election
October 29, 2019, 02:38:02 pm
As this now seems a given - a split from the EU referendum thread...

My predictions....

1. Tories lose all seats in Scotland to SNP maybe the odd one to labour/lib dems.
2. Tories lose 10-30 seats in the Metropolitan/south/SE to the Lib Dems
3. Tories gain c.20-30 seats in marginal areas where leave was popular

Hung parliament.
Tories about the same +/- 5
Labour -30
Lib Dems +25
SNP + 5

Will Hunt

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#1 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 29, 2019, 02:56:05 pm
Notwithstanding my post on the EU referendum thread, I don't think it's possible to make meaningful calls on numbers until we see how the different parties might campaign.
If the Brexit Party are not allowed to form an unholy alliance with the Tories (probable) then they could put a dint into Labour and Conservative seats and possibly pick up some seats of their own (it seems unreasonable to predict LD gains but not BP). They had Tice on the radio again this morning. Too early in the game to deploy their ultimate weapon - Farage. Once the battle lines are drawn he can enter the fray.

tomtom

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#2 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 29, 2019, 04:00:48 pm
If the Brexit Party are not allowed to form an unholy alliance with the Tories (probable) then they could put a dint into Labour and Conservative seats and possibly pick up some seats of their own (it seems unreasonable to predict LD gains but not BP). They had Tice on the radio again this morning. Too early in the game to deploy their ultimate weapon - Farage. Once the battle lines are drawn he can enter the fray.

I think Farage is out for himself. He could cut a deal seeing him in some sort of ministerial postion if an alliance is allowed... but I think that would be very unsavoury to many Torys and (as we've seen in the past) the Tory party treat alliances as very much last resort (Lib Dems, DUP..).

So, Farage could campaign on the hard brexit line - which would certainly draw some from the Tory vote. Boris on his deal. Labour on fuck knows what fudge of a deal/no deal/rederendum and Lib Dems on revoke.

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tomtom

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#4 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 29, 2019, 08:28:53 pm
And it’s on....

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#5 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 29, 2019, 09:38:03 pm
First up: encorage as many people as possible to register to vote.

webbo

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#6 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 29, 2019, 09:43:28 pm
The problem with voting is the government always gets in.

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#7 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 29, 2019, 10:08:40 pm
Well the 2017 election worked better than I expected, partly because the young registered in much larger mumbers than normal.

tomtom

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#8 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 08:58:38 am
I think the first graph in this page is quite informative...
(it shows thebreakdown of voter intentions by age - in summary - if you're old Tory, as you get younger more chance of labour).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/can-labour-eat-into-projected-58-seat-tory-majority

Theres also a BBC thing from April that suggests that more than half of ALL of Tory voters are aged over 65....

I wonder how the cold december weather will play in to this... old people struggling to get to the polling station vs stubborn old bastards :D

tommytwotone

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#9 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 09:25:19 am
I'll draw your attention to the betting markets on this - yes, yes I know they called Brexit / Trump wrong, but think they are outliers.

Gov't after 2019 Election

Tory majority 10/11
Tory minority 4/1
Labour minority 5/1
Lab / LD / SNP coalition 11/1
Lab / LD coalition 16/1
Lab majority 20/1
Bar 20/1+

Majority Betting:

Tory majority 5/6
No majority Evs
Labour majority 18/1
Any other party majority 66/1



tomtom

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#10 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 09:28:37 am
Lab / LD / SNP coalition 11/1 this looks like a steal at those odds!

tommytwotone

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#11 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 09:40:20 am
Tory / Brexit Party coalition is 25/1 while you're there...

teestub

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#12 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 09:57:36 am
I'll draw your attention to the betting markets on this - yes, yes I know they called Brexit / Trump wrong, but think they are outliers.


😬 ‘yes I know they called the last two big major political things wrong, even though they were binary choices’

dunnyg

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#13 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 09:58:20 am
Yeah, but what are the odds that they will get it wrong again?

tomtom

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#14 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 10:06:26 am
Yeah, but what are the odds that they will get it wrong again?

3T?

teestub

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#15 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 10:17:46 am
How did they get on with the 2017 election?

galpinos

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#16 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 10:19:53 am
Lab / LD / SNP coalition 11/1 this looks like a steal at those odds!

Jo Swinson says no coalition with Labour?

tommytwotone

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#17 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 10:30:54 am
Yeah, but what are the odds that they will get it wrong again?

I can't see it personally - my reading of those prices is (sadly) what I'd surmised already:

Tories / Boris have laid the groundwork for this election in last few months with all their "people vs. parliament" stuff

Tories have the clearest position on Brext (albeit one I personally disagree with) - expect "Get Brexit Done" to be this year's "Strong And Stable". They're gonna be parroting that shit non-stop till December.

Magic Grandpa is the gift that keeps on giving for the Tories, whether it's his general political persuasion, his complete unwillingness / lack of gumption re: position on Brexit...

Much as I'd like to believe the LD will get a surge, all they've done is split any potential Remain vote










tomtom

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#18 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 10:48:13 am
Lab / LD / SNP coalition 11/1 this looks like a steal at those odds!

Jo Swinson says no coalition with Labour?

Of course she says that - otherwise the LibDem vote might drift off.. Got to say you plan to win it..

IF the numbers are there for a Lab/Lib/SNP coalition I bet it would happen... who would lead it is another question!!

Will Hunt

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#19 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 11:20:32 am
I wonder what a coalition of Lab and SNP might do to the union? The SNP, for all their many fine qualities, are nationalists whose stated aim is to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom, and a referendum on that will be their price for helping Labour to form a government.

But the SNP's greatest friend in their quest for independence is the Conservative Westminster administration - the polar opposite of Scotland's political leaning. If Labour form a coalition government under Corbyn, that might pull the rug out from under the SNP.

tomtom

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#20 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 11:23:50 am
I wonder what a coalition of Lab and SNP might do to the union? The SNP, for all their many fine qualities, are nationalists whose stated aim is to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom, and a referendum on that will be their price for helping Labour to form a government.

But the SNP's greatest friend in their quest for independence is the Conservative Westminster administration - the polar opposite of Scotland's political leaning. If Labour form a coalition government under Corbyn, that might pull the rug out from under the SNP.

I think lab or tory result would see an end to the union. Labour cannot (bar a miracle) get an overall majority - so they would have to form a coalition with SNP - which as you rightly say would lead to IndyRef as one of the prices for Lab power. But depending on Brexit deal might not lead to the ref saying leave..

If Torys win - hard brexit - SNP will ultimately get and IndyRef and probably win it.

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#21 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 11:29:37 am





Quote
Much as I'd like to believe the LD will get a surge, all they've done is split any potential Remain vote


I think Corbyn and Labour did that themselves

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#22 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 11:53:35 am
Yeah, but what are the odds that they will get it wrong again?

I'd say very high if those numbers are real... get some money on quick.

Labour were much further behind at this stage prior to the 2017 election and the tories won those seats in Scotland, smiled at the demise of the Liberals and still ended up in minority and needed to do a deal with the DUP.

Being 10% behind in the polls is almost irrelevant in the politics we have today. I'm not saying Boris can't win,  I'm saying I see a hung Parliament as the most likely outcome and as such his chances of a majority are way overstated. Too many progressives are depressing themselves unnecessarily when they need to be gearing up to help campaigns. For a reasonable majority (given very likely scottish losses and english losses to Lib Dems) he needs to take 40 odd seats off mainly popular local Labour MPs in the north and midlands  (as fortunately it seems the attempts of Momentun to force reselections of quite a few of those same MPs, as a gift to Boris, is now over).

If Brexit do just 5% better than UKIP in 2017 in northern seats that are tory- Labour two way seats (with no previous Lib Dem showing) then tories need to get an equivalent of a 9.5% swing to take those marginal seats to win the 40 odd  they need for a working majority. In a more normal election Green and Lib Dem votes would grow in such seats but I don't see that this time given what we are facing and that the the Lib Dems, Greens and Pliad  are already working on a pact.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/election-pact-pursued-by-lib-dems-plaid-cymru-and-greens

My slightly higher optimism than some on the progressive side is based on the following: trusting more of the british people to see through plain bullshit in general elections; expecting Corbyn to again campaign better than predicted; that the tories said brexit would be done by Halloween, no ifs, no buts; that the tories have lost any sense of fiscal responsibility... their strongest anti Corbyn weapon; that the tory cabinet are full of far right accident prone ministers with major skeletons...easy targets for a smart Labour campaign; big non brexit issues like health, education, council services, favour Labour. Biggest of all: that a clear Labour majority looks to be in miracle terrain at present so swing voters worried about Corbyn can hold their nose and vote Labour as he will be forced to compromise in any form of minority government.

I'm not alone in thinking a tory majority will be hard work.. this is what John Curtice says





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#23 Re: 2019 December General Election
October 30, 2019, 12:08:14 pm
Quote
Biggest of all: that a clear Labour majority looks to be in miracle terrain at present so swing voters worried about Corbyn can hold their nose and vote Labour as he will be forced to compromise in any form of minority government.

Not sure this stands up. Unfortunately he was anti-EU originally, unelectable in 2017, and the last 2 years have made him even more unelectable. That and the internal labour division and dithering , is the main reason the idiot Boris and his loony ERG goons, are so far ahead.

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« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 12:33:04 pm by Offwidth »

 

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