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Climate Change (Read 60580 times)

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#375 Re: Climate Change
August 12, 2021, 01:40:55 pm
Quote from: andy popp
As to the wider points about mobility; there have, of course, been huge population movements across human history but until very recently most people have lived and died very close to where they were born. Even in Western Europe owning any form of personal transport beyond a pair of legs was unusual until the advent of the bicycle in the late C19th. Very few people owned horses for personal transport. I don't think we're especially hardwired by history to crave mobility.

This might true for recorded history, but if we're talking hardwired as in evolution it is questionable; shank's pony is not to be under-estimated. One of the basic properties shared by all hunter-gatherer societies I've read about is the degree of mobility. In fact in the introduction to the book I have on the Mesolithic in Britain, the main point the author strives to impress is quite how mobile they were and how the degree of mobility is always far greater than the layman expects. The broad picture is of course that settled farming civilisations began c.8000 yrs ago on Mesopotamia and spread from there. In evolutionary terms that is basically an irrelevant period of time, particularly with respect to the preceding 2,500,000 years.

While farming and then money were of course the engines of technological process, the lack of mobility I would argue was a mostly unwelcome consequence. Health declined too, from hunter-gatherer until very recently, as a result of the limited diet from farming and poor working conditions (intelligence too, due to reduced challenge and increased number of niches available for 'useful idiots', as Harari terms the average worker drone). I think it's entirely normal for people, given a little time and money, to want to 'get away'. Sure international travel has enable that to happen on a different scale, but I think the inference that it isn't hardwired is plain wrong.

We've discussed it before, but Bruce Chatwin's book Songlines is of course mainly about Aboriginal Australians but also a great overview of nomadic cultures in general, drawing heavily on his abandoned manuscript for a book on nomads, and driven by a desire to explain his own wanderlust.

Bloody fascinating post, thanks! Sorry to get off-topic, but what evidence is there for declining health and intelligence over time due to farming and stationary societies? (I don't mean this as a challenge, i'm just interested). Is this decline still continuing or did they begin to rise again at any point?

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#376 Re: Climate Change
August 12, 2021, 01:43:52 pm
I’d recommend the book Sapiens that JB alluded to if your interested in the field, it’s a very easy and entertaining read alongside being eye opening https://www.ynharari.com/book/sapiens-2/

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#377 Re: Climate Change
August 12, 2021, 02:15:57 pm
I enjoyed Sapiens, but not the follow up; had the impression of Harari starting to believe his own hype a little bit too much!

I've got a lot out of reading Jared Diamond on this topic as well. Guns Germs and Steel is an absolute classic but definitely harder going than Sapiens. I also read Collapse by him, which is about how some societies fail and others survive.

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#378 Re: Climate Change
August 12, 2021, 02:22:10 pm
I will add these books to my list, thank you.

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#379 Re: Climate Change
August 12, 2021, 03:29:46 pm
Quote from: andy popp
As to the wider points about mobility; there have, of course, been huge population movements across human history but until very recently most people have lived and died very close to where they were born. Even in Western Europe owning any form of personal transport beyond a pair of legs was unusual until the advent of the bicycle in the late C19th. Very few people owned horses for personal transport. I don't think we're especially hardwired by history to crave mobility.

This might true for recorded history, but if we're talking hardwired as in evolution it is questionable; shank's pony is not to be under-estimated.

Oh, definitely, I certainly didn't mean to argue there's no hardwiring, which is why I deliberately mentioned history, to make that distinction. I don't think there's a general argument to be made from history about human mobility, just lots of messy, contingent, context driven ones.

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#380 Re: Climate Change
August 12, 2021, 05:53:02 pm
Quite. They also offer a more eco-friendly patch of greenery than most modern farmland, which is mostly disastrous for wildlife. But these are both Uk perspectives, whereas going on a golfing holiday does imply a location where a golf course is likely to be relatively less benign.

I take the points made re golf courses, I just notice that most of them seem to have sprinklers on almost constantly, and wonder where all the turf is sourced from. I was probably scarred by the experience of going to Vegas; in the middle of a parched desert and golf courses everywhere... It's gross.

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#381 Re: Climate Change
August 12, 2021, 05:55:21 pm

We've discussed it before, but Bruce Chatwin's book Songlines is of course mainly about Aboriginal Australians but also a great overview of nomadic cultures in general, drawing heavily on his abandoned manuscript for a book on nomads, and driven by a desire to explain his own wanderlust.

I think this is one of my favourite books, it's amazing, anyone who hasn't read it should. Ditto for In Patagonia.

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#382 Re: Climate Change
August 12, 2021, 08:22:32 pm
whats yr book on mesolithic britain JB?

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#383 Re: Climate Change
August 13, 2021, 09:21:25 am
 :kiss2:To the Islands by Stephen Mithen. I hesitate to recommend it, it is misyly an archeologist's self-indulgent autobiography and the prof is clearly above working with editors. If you read some of the one star reviews to his other books you'll get the picture.

The point I refer to on mobility is impressed on him by Lewis Binford, whose work has been highly influential and worth seeking out. I've not got any of his books but a lot of his papers are online.

Obit: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2011/may/17/lewis-binford-obituary
« Last Edit: August 13, 2021, 09:31:58 am by Johnny Brown »

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#384 Re: Climate Change
August 14, 2021, 06:03:21 pm
Another article from Wood Mac, on the constraints on investment within mining which threaten to derail the world's attempt to transition to low carbon energy and transport. Banging the same drum they've been banging for the last few years (and which convinced me to invest in a few choice copper, nickel and tin miners).

https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/why-high-dividends-may-not-pay-off-for-mining/?utm_campaign=metals-mining&utm_medium=email&utm_source=pardot
Quote
As I have written previously, the miners’ paradox becomes even more extreme when considering the raw material requirements of a 2 °C pathway (our AET-2 scenario). With miners caught between a rock and a hard place, current investment trends and the fundamental outlook over the next five years suggest that the industry will underinvest in the required capacity.

As a result, we’ll most likely see a continuation of the classic boom-bust cycle as underinvestment begets shortages, which beget high prices, which beget overinvestment. In that scenario, miners, who should be the custodians of the energy transition, could instead end up inhibiting it.

The statement, sometimes credited to Albert Einstein, that “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result” feels pertinent here. It seems to me that unless we take action now, far from setting a course to deliver an accelerated energy transition, we will instead become locked into the insanity of mining boom and bust.

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#385 Re: Climate Change
August 20, 2021, 12:02:03 pm
I thought this article was interesting vis-a-vis some of the debates we were having a couple of weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/20/leon-carbon-neutral-burgers-restaurant-environmental

I've never heard of the company before and am not having a dig at them.

SA Chris

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#387 Re: Climate Change
August 20, 2021, 01:23:36 pm


Though, on the topic of recreational flying...if a flight quota was introduced, why no trading? If my quota was 1 short haul every 3 years, I'd have loved to have flogged that to somebody else.

NO NO NO to both of these. The transition to a low carbon economy doesn't HAVE to lead to more inequality baked in. That's a political choice. It will be a completely fucked up world (even more so) when the richest in society can just hoover up poor people's flight quotas or buy their way to maintaining freedoms that the lower orders are priced out of.

To take the topic of birth control as an extreme example - hypothetically, if this were to become policy how would people feel if rich people could just buy poor people's baby quotas. Fuck that.

Hold on, I really don't understand this. If we have a per capita flight quota then that's basically setting a maximum amount of air miles for the whole of the UK. Roughly half of the UK population don't fly in any given year (https://travelweekly.co.uk/articles/42355/analysis-how-often-do-britons-fly) so they're not going to be using their apportioned quota anyhow. Hence if they trade, they don't lose anything (and may probably gain) and the person buying the quote definitely gains (otherwise they wouldn't bother).

It's a classic Pareto improvement - why wouldn't you do it?

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#388 Re: Climate Change
August 20, 2021, 02:10:35 pm
Hold on, I really don't understand this. If we have a per capita flight quota then that's basically setting a maximum amount of air miles for the whole of the UK. Roughly half of the UK population don't fly in any given year so they're not going to be using their apportioned quota anyhow. Hence if they trade, they don't lose anything (and may probably gain) and the person buying the quote definitely gains (otherwise they wouldn't bother).

It's a classic Pareto improvement - why wouldn't you do it?

Will made the same point upthread.
But, but, here's me, who's not going to use my flight quota anyway, absolutely desperate to sell a commodity I didn't previously have to anyone who'll buy it. If they're rich and choose to use it on a golfing holiday then that's absolutely fine by me.

But if the stated aim is to reduce carbon emissions to zero then your choice not to fly should be used towards that goal - not sold on to the golfer so that the emissions happen anyway.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2021, 02:39:57 pm by ali k »

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#389 Re: Climate Change
August 20, 2021, 02:25:11 pm
Is this not otherwise eco conscious people willingly selling the environment short for personal gain? Don't profit, let your 0 emissions count towards a global decease. Get a high five your grandchildren for not fucking things up like our grandparents generation.

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#390 Re: Climate Change
August 20, 2021, 04:05:26 pm
A key point about this never-going-to-happen-anyway-so-why-are-we-bothering-to-argue-about-it scenario is that if a quota is set then it is presumed to be at a level that is sustainable. If that were the case then going below that quota might be nice but why try and prevent international air travel more than you have to?

The reason I mentioned a price cap or some form of price regulation was to get around Ali's equality issue. If the market price was kept below a rate where it made it financially nonsensical for ordinary people not to sell to the super rich then people don't have to sell.


Honestly though, just talking about flight is narrow and completely misses the scale of the challenge.


Spanner in the works: the aerospace industry is working away at the problem and working on carbon neutral plane designs. Don't ask me what they might be or how far off they might be because I don't know. All I can say is that my father-in-law (retired from Rolls-Royce, now consulting for them) is working on this project and the UK government has chucked money at it. Who knows, y'all might be disappointed and we might yet be able to make international air travel sustainable.

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#391 Re: Climate Change
August 20, 2021, 04:23:09 pm
just talking about flight is narrow and completely misses the scale of the challenge.
Totally agree. That was my point earlier re: domestic emissions.

I'm not against international air travel just for the sake of it - if they can make truly carbon neutral planes (not just the usual greenwashing bullshit) then that would be great.

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#392 Re: Climate Change
August 20, 2021, 05:02:11 pm
Hold on, I really don't understand this. If we have a per capita flight quota then that's basically setting a maximum amount of air miles for the whole of the UK. Roughly half of the UK population don't fly in any given year so they're not going to be using their apportioned quota anyhow. Hence if they trade, they don't lose anything (and may probably gain) and the person buying the quote definitely gains (otherwise they wouldn't bother).

It's a classic Pareto improvement - why wouldn't you do it?


But if the stated aim is to reduce carbon emissions to zero then your choice not to fly should be used towards that goal - not sold on to the golfer so that the emissions happen anyway.

If that's the case then surely you'd just set the annual air mileage quota to half of what it would have been with a per capita allowance that covers everyone, to account for the people who don't fly anyhow? Then allow trading within that smaller quota - you'd get exactly the same outcome in terms of emissions with more people getting what they wanted. I appreciate it's useful in rhetorical terms to cast those benefiting as rich pleasure seekers, but there is an equality issue here too. Lots of Brits have family abroad, often quite a long way abroad - India, Jamaica, Nigeria, etc. With a strict limit and no trading, you're condeming a lot of people to never seeing their family again, as Chris said further up the thread. If you were serious about bashing golfers (not something I have a problem with) then just build in a maximum annual number of flights.

I'm of the view that there are few reasons any of us should be taking flights within Europe, at least not for pleasure, but there are really good reasons for some long haul travel that can't be replaced by other forms of transport. There's also the small matter of if low carbon flying is possible, and hence desirable, how is developing it going to be funded if we make the airline industry much smaller? What happens if we have some kind of quota and the planes we would have used end up getting sold off/leased cheaply to poorer but less environementally concerned countries, so we've only just displaced the problem rather than solved it?

Whilst I agree that flying is only part of the massive challenge we face, it's both important and illustrative of some of the problems we face in making a functional transition. I don't know if this has been occuring elsewhere, but here in London there have been huge rows about Low Traffic Neighbourhoods which aim to reduce car use. I mean, it's obvious why: using a car is often easier than the alternatives, otherwise you wouldn't do it, and no one likes having their lives made harder. There're some very vocal opponents and politicians really do listen to them. Arguments about freedom and rights in travel are going to become a staple for the next few decades.

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#393 Re: Climate Change
August 20, 2021, 06:51:05 pm
 I love how one quick offhand comment has sparked this long discussion. I'm not sure I've seen any mention of quotas anywhere else, I just chucked it in as an idea...

So. Quotas. I guess it all gets very "communist" very quickly, but I do think a limit of one long haul every 2 years is reasonable and probably just about sneaks in the climate quota.

My main reason for suggesting no trading came off the back of holiday trading. Its a bit assymmetric and there would be plenty willing to snap up 4 or 5 peoples quotas. Whereas if you set, say, 1 LHF ever 2 years, and you didn't use it then its a great saving in C02 terms.

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#394 Re: Climate Change
August 21, 2021, 09:22:44 pm
I’d recommend the book Sapiens that JB alluded to if your interested in the field, it’s a very easy and entertaining read alongside being eye opening https://www.ynharari.com/book/sapiens-2/

Agree Sapiens is probably worthwhile reading for almost anyone. On this particular subject it is pretty light, as it with most because of the scope of the book. If you want an excellent in-depth treatment on the transition from hunter gatherer to peasant taxpayer I'd suggest James C Scott's Against the Grain.

On air travel, I think some sort of limitation is inevitable. It would be nice if it was equitable but that's hardly the case at the moment. Given the way things are going I think there's a fair chance it will come in as a Covid-style blanket moratorium on non-essential travel while we try to buy ourselves some time.


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#395 Re: Climate Change
August 24, 2021, 04:14:50 pm
Part III of the IPCC Report (the bit that has the recommendations) has been leaked by Scientists Rebellion.  https://scientistrebellion.com/we-leaked-the-upcoming-ipcc-report/ there's a link to a Google Drive location with the documents in.

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#396 Re: Climate Change
August 24, 2021, 04:21:29 pm

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#397 Re: Climate Change
April 05, 2022, 09:14:14 am
Reviving this for my mental health as much as anything else having seen two IPCC reports flicker and then sink without a trace on the BBC’s top stories tracker.

Two months ago the IPCC confirmed with as much scientific certainty as we’re going to get that we have a narrow and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future on this planet. Now we know from the report released yesterday that the point of no return for changing this is 2025, by which point we have to finally achieve a global reduction in reducing emissions. To ensure a sub 1.5 or even 2 degrees trajectory we also need rapid and in most cases immediate reductions in all emissions from all sectors, meaning we’re largely stuck with the technology we already have and also need substantial demand side reductions.

Feel free to correct me if I’m misinterpreting any of the above, I’m not a scientist etc. But my understanding is that both reports prepared by the world’s leading scientists on these fields and with government sign off, so seem to be the nearest thing to a ‘consensus’ on the scale of the issue and the ways we need to globally tackle it that we’re going to get prior to going beyond the point of no return.

Appreciate many/most people here will already know of the above and they’re hardly new messages from the scientific community, but the societal and media indifference to what is in essence our final warning from the IPCC makes me feel like I’m taking crazy pills. How do others feel?

Links to the Feb and April reports:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/

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#398 Re: Climate Change
April 05, 2022, 10:18:49 am
Reviving this for my mental health as much as anything else having seen two IPCC reports flicker and then sink without a trace on the BBC’s top stories tracker.

... but the societal and media indifference to what is in essence our final warning from the IPCC makes me feel like I’m taking crazy pills. How do others feel?

Very much the same as you I'm afraid. See my post in the politics thread. The government seems to have abandoned environmental policy, likely that Johnson is frightened  of his agitating backbenchers, some of whom who are either closet deniers, or dead against wind turbines, or the simplest best method of decreasing emissions - stop using so much. I can't help but find it all incredibly depressing.

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#399 Re: Climate Change
April 05, 2022, 11:01:03 am
The government seems to have abandoned environmental policy, likely that Johnson is frightened  of his agitating backbenchers, some of whom who are either closet deniers,…. I can't help but find it all incredibly depressing.

This.

 

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