[user deactivated]

After watching the impressive save of Jim Pope on Appointment with Death and the seemingly casual and fearless way he weighted the pebble to chalk and blow (it reminded me of that startling footage of Guy’s of Nige’s hands off moment on Dynamics of change). Then unperturbed after the pebble snapped, he locks the hold back up and floats to the top. It got me to thinking about the idea of boldness, headspace and the illusion of control. There was something about his body language that said ‘I have 100% got this, no problem’. This is in no way critical of that approach or feeling, I wish I had it more often. But I wonder how much the climber is under the illusion that nothing can go wrong here. That supreme confidence felt by financial traders at the top of their game? And also how many climbers operating in this way have lost their lives because of it? I can think of 4 without trying. While undoubtedly outdated the original 1970’s research makes interesting reading. I wonder in climbing if the sense of mastery and increased confidence that goes with it could increase this illusion to ones detriment in the end?

[Yossarian]

Without wishing to offend in any way, I was wondering ... have you recently returned from an ayahuasca retreat...?

[user deactivated]

No way man, it’s been about 25 years since I touched psychedelics. And for good reason. I’m just interested in this stuff. Both work wise and as an antidote to life. I had an amazing mentor a few years ago, a psychiatrist and psychotherapist at the Maudsley who was researching into mind states. Fascinating stuff.

[Ru]

This may have been posted before, but it's an interesting analysis of the psychology behind a record breaking diving attempt that went wrong. It's a couple of years since I read it (I had to google around to find the article again) but from what I remember the basic conclusion is that the participants mistook luck for knowledge and experience. I think it's an example of what you are getting at. Or put another way, it's a type of confirmation bias.

http://scubatechphilippines.com/scuba_blog/guy-garman-world-depth-record-fatal-dive/

[user deactivated]

Thanks Ru, that is a genuinely fantastic article. I’ve not finished it yet but two things immediately came to mind. I wasn’t keen to mention the glamorisation aspect as I’m sure the assentionist wasn’t aiming for the insta-storm created. One of the comments on here that really stood out to me was Nibs post about it being ‘real thing or genuine article’ or something like that. I’d wonder if it is exactly the opposite to this. If you compare the footage of Miles Gibson on dangermouse where you can literally feel him squeezing the shit out of every hold and his body language suggests one of certainty but anxious tension. There was no fucking around there. Weighting those pebbles minimally.

[BuzyG]

Some great questions posed. 

When does someone have enough skill and experience to take on something others perceive as extremely difficult.  We can only gain useful experience buy pushing our own personal envolope.  When we are young we take far bigger chunks out of it.  If we fail we reapraise and move on at a more appropriate rate.  As a retired lone winter surfer I've had some moments.  But happily I am still here learning new skills and pushing new boundaries, for me.

It's an unfortunate yet simple fact of life that some people don't fail until it's too late.  They never learn the edge of their envolope, until that faithful day.

[Will Hunt]

That article about the deep dive fatality is a riveting read. So many parallels with trad climbing.

Reading it and thinking about Jim's lucky escape is a bit stomach churning. If Jim wasn't so strong we could be reading about a young life cut very short, or changed forever by serious injury. And it would be on film. Watching the video of Tom on the same route, you can see he chalks up while stood on grit before committing to the pebble and he's not on it long. Chalking up while on the pebble now seems pretty cavalier - maybe that's the kind of confidence that being able to one-arm a three finger edge (and not having climbed on moorland grit much?) gives you!

Jim should probably be getting a right bollocking, but instead his Instagram notifications inbox is filling up like never before with comments of admiration. Food for thought!

The parallels between the article and what goes on week in and week out in Uni climbing clubs is also pretty stark. We had a lad in our club who was a shocking climber and who you'd invariably see dangling from just about every route he tried (the sloth, flying buttress direct etc). I remember talking to Jacob Cook about the stuff that this lad was trying to lead and questioning what he thought he was playing at. Fortunately the young gun wasn't good enough to climb his way into real trouble, but his soloing antics were pretty hair raising to hear about. I remember Jacob telling me he admired him and being angry himself when people tried to tell him to slow down when he was an undergrad (I think Jacobs background was the youth comp scene before a transition into trad as a student).

I've thought often about this and have come to the conclusion that a teenage boy's first few years of onsight trad climbing is a spectacularly dangerous time, during which the new climber is generally spectacularly unaware of the full gamut of risks they face.

Sorry, all a bit rambling.

[webbo]

Are not near misses what it’s all about.

[lagerstarfish]

Are not near misses what it’s all about.

 

that and the illusion of near misses

[Will Hunt]

They are indeed, I suppose.

But a near miss is a tragedy with a bit of luck thrown in.

And the point I was making about relatively new trad climbers is that they often don't really appreciate the size of the risk that they're exposed to, and don't really think seriously about what the real consequences of a fuck up are. I certainly don't think I ever did. I was in my late teens/early twenties and thus unkillable. In reality, 60+ years of life not to be lived is terrible to contemplate.

[user deactivated]

Are not near misses what it’s all about.

Nah, I can’t remember the last time I had a near miss. Unless falling on to your arse in the bower tree counts? Don’t really feel like I’m not having my quota of great climbing experiences

[user deactivated]

On a different note, last year I literally had to talk a member of a uni climbing club into not going any further up a climb. He was about to set off to his death but seemed to be completely oblivious as was his belayer. So much so that neither of them could work out how to safety abseil off the crag to retrieve the 2 fucking mowacks they’d left in.

[BAndy]

I wonder in climbing if the sense of mastery and increased confidence that goes with it could increase this illusion to ones detriment in the end?

It certainly seems that the combination of ego and confirmation bias can be a difficult trap to resist.

[Oldmanmatt]

I think we might be missing something here. 

I don’t think his reaction is so unusual or unlikely. 
His strength, yes, the apparent calm, no.

There are a great many examples of people exhibiting outward calm, under the most dire circumstances and continuing as if nothing has happened.
It doesn’t mean it didn’t hit him a few minutes later or in the middle of the night.

Have none of you ever experienced that thing where your brain just kicks in with “Right! Lets do this” and the screaming, jibbering, wreck part of you, gets shoved into the background.
I don’t know of the best example , your child ckoking? Stumbled on a car accident? A near miss?

I know I have. Times when I did what needed doing, almost calmly, but there was a bill to pay later; when I realised what I’d done.

I also came upon a rather awful motorcycle accident, on a dark Dartmoor road, once. Polly and all the kids in the car too. The man in the road was an absolute mess. The was another driver, who arrived a few seconds before. A rather small middle aged lady. We just got on with it. All that first aid we never thought we’d use. Dialing 999, calmly relaying info.
He had a TBI and a smashed helmet, face and jaw. I stuck my hand in the mess to keep his airway open and tried to keep him still as he writhed. It was almost an hour before the first paramedic arrived. We all worked on him. In hindsight it was odd. At one point I was handed scissors to cut open his belt and jeans, while they worked at his ankles.

When the ambulance left, us civvies were just sort of standing in the road, a bit lost. We got a pat on the back from a shaken looking Copper. Said goodbye and went home. Even the kids were just silent.

No drama.

But by Christ did it hit, about ten minutes after getting home. Fucking shaking.

What I’m getting at, is, not panicking is why he’s not a statistic; but I think that happens more than we appreciate. Just not normally on camera...
 Edit:

And... it’s not ego, or lack of understanding, or risk awareness etc etc.
I bet he was actually (if secretly) crapping himself before starting the route.

[Ru]

Are not near misses what it’s all about.

Not just in climbing. The confusion of good luck with talent (and the rewards that follow that good luck) is endemic. The lucky chancer is praised, the unlucky chancer arrested. Boris Johnson knows this. The ultimate trick is to do it with someone else bearing the downside risk and then to charge them for it. This is how banking works.

I'm sure Andy Popp will correct my political stumblings, but the basis of socialism seems to be a recognition of this, whereas libertarian conservatism (have I got that right?) assumes that all success is earned and the disproportionate rewards are therefore fair.

[user deactivated]

I’d be curious to know Matt.

Jim.... are you out there Jim?

Were you supremely confident or secretly shitting a brick?

We all would like to know

[andy popp]

The ultimate trick is to do it with someone else bearing the downside risk and then to charge them for it. This is how banking works.

As exemplified in 2008 and its aftermath, in which almost all of the entirety of the downside was displaced onto the largely or completely innocent.

[Oldmanmatt]

I’d be curious to know Matt.

Jim.... are you out there Jim?

Were you supremely confident or secretly shitting a brick?

We all would like to know

As I said, the jibbering wreck is temporarily displaced, muffled, but not gone. I’m also saying we all do it. You will have done it. Think about the worst moments in your life, how many people panicked? I bet the panic was a minority reaction, of the people present. How many examples can you recall,of what the media would label an “unlikely hero”?
Do you know who Kate Nesbitt is? Read her story, and remember she’s so small and soft spoken, it would require a conscious effort, for even the most enlightened man, to not patronise or infantilise her.


Edit:

There was nothing secret about the bricks being shat.

[user deactivated]

Sorry Matt. I wasn’t taking the piss out of your post. I am actually curious to know. I wonder if Jim would get on and let us know?

[webbo]

In one of my sabbaticals from climbing, I got into cross country mountain bike racing. Although I had to fitness to be up with leaders I did not have skill set.
So in one race I got the wheel of a guy who had won a medal at the world champs in the over 40s. My thinking was if I can follow him down the hills I might learn the skills needed.
I thought he was about to crash all the way down the hills, he so sketchy. However when chatting to him afterward, he said he felt in control. So I guess what is being in control to one person, is just about falling off to another.

[Oldmanmatt]

But you followed him...

[spidermonkey09]

I've thought often about this and have come to the conclusion that a teenage boy's first few years of onsight trad climbing is a spectacularly dangerous time, during which the new climber is generally spectacularly unaware of the full gamut of risks they face.

This. Testosterone, ego, confidence of youth, the desire to impress a new social group, all combining into a fucking dangerous cocktail.

[webbo]

But you followed him...

For a lap or two then let him go. I couldn’t cope with the feeling that at any moment it was about to go tits up. Not only from me but if he lost it chances were it would bring me down as well.
I also rode with him on the road in our local road race and I always made sure I never rode behind him in those.

[tommytwotone]

I wonder in climbing if the sense of mastery and increased confidence that goes with it could increase this illusion to ones detriment in the end?

It certainly seems that the combination of ego and confirmation bias can be a difficult trap to resist.

Sorry to be ridiculously pernickety here - you (and Ru originally) have a point, but have stumbled into an area which I happen to have a geeky background / interest in.

Sound like in this case you're talking about self-serving bias, not confirmation bias.

The former is just what's been described - overly attributing positive outcomes to one's own skill, experience and so on, and negative outcomes to external factors like luck (as you'd imagine, in cases of depression the converse is often observed).

Confirmation bias is the tendency to over focus on evidence that supports one's hypotheses (the so-called "black swan effect").

[As context - I did a "Ted talk" style thing on cognitive bias a couple of years ago. I thought it went really well but - well - you know...]




 

[reeve]

As context - I did a "Ted talk" style thing on cognitive bias a couple of years ago. I thought it went really well but - well - you know...

 

Any online recording of this available TTT?

[tommytwotone]

As context - I did a "Ted talk" style thing on cognitive bias a couple of years ago. I thought it went really well but - well - you know...

 

Any online recording of this available TTT?

Fortunately not - but the link is still out there, including a picture of me looking a lot more relaxed than I actually was at the time:


https://www.meetup.com/Agile-in-Leeds/photos/27375954/455451773/#455451773


This is also an excellent diagram covering the multitude of stuff to go at if you want look more at cognitive bias in general:


https://medium.com/tradecraft-traction/flashcards-to-learn-168-cognitive-biases-4c37f3418f15

[SA Chris]

I've thought often about this and have come to the conclusion that a teenage boy's first few years of onsight trad climbing is a spectacularly dangerous time, during which the new climber is generally spectacularly unaware of the full gamut of risks they face.

This. Testosterone, ego, confidence of youth, the desire to impress a new social group, all combining into a fucking dangerous cocktail.

Certainly the case with me. Freely admit to not having a fucking clue for first 2 years or so. Desire to climb something totally outweighed any notion of safety.  Couple of days out I was very lucky to make it home from.

[IanP]

For a lap or two then let him go. I couldn’t cope with the feeling that at any moment it was about to go tits up. Not only from me but if he lost it chances were it would bring me down as well.
I also rode with him on the road in our local road race and I always made sure I never rode behind him in those.
[/quote]

That does sound strange, when I've ridden with relatively decent (youth/veteran racing) DH riders it's there smoothness while going at a pace that I can only keep up with at the ragged edge of my ability for a minute or less that always impresses.

[Stu Littlefair]

I'm sure it says something that almost all of us felt that we pushed our luck in our younger years, and that a combination of naivety, youth and peer pressure is potentially dangerous. And yet, examples of young lads actually coming to serious harm is, thankfully, rare.

[Oldmanmatt]

I'm sure it says something that almost all of us felt that we pushed our luck in our younger years, and that a combination of naivety, youth and peer pressure is potentially dangerous. And yet, examples of young lads actually coming to serious harm is, thankfully, rare.

On rock, yes.

One of my best mates, parked his motorcycle under a moving car, on his first ride, on his seventeenth birthday, terminally.
(I think the whole gang, if not the entire school year; grew-up ten years that week. If they didn’t then, they did by the end of the funeral).

[Stu Littlefair]

Grim.

I think some activities are much more risky than they appear and some much less. Climbing is probably the latter and motorised transport almost certainly the former.

[Paul B]

I'm sure it says something that almost all of us felt that we pushed our luck in our younger years, and that a combination of naivety, youth and peer pressure is potentially dangerous. And yet, examples of young lads actually coming to serious harm is, thankfully, rare.

This. Not that I've done anything particularly of note but I can remember soloing things and having rationalised it in my head as "I'd only break a leg or something". When I did hurt myself (messy leg break), it was in one of the safest, most controlled environments that exists (bouldering wall) and TBH I don't contemplate anything that has the slightest chance of a repeat, it was just too grim to be worth it.

I can also remember being in Yosemite on our 2013 tour. We'd spent most of May there and bore witness (from afar) to a few fatal accidents. One was a British climber, and we'd climbed the same route a matter of days beforehand. We went to do RNWF on Half Dome and came close when tying on to being struck by two falling rocks and I felt like it was all just becoming a bit of a lottery rather than a matter of skill and judgement.

[Will Hunt]

I'm sure it says something that almost all of us felt that we pushed our luck in our younger years, and that a combination of naivety, youth and peer pressure is potentially dangerous. And yet, examples of young lads actually coming to serious harm is, thankfully, rare.

This might say more about the efficacy of mountain rescue teams and the quality of trauma care in UK hospitals near climbing areas than about the level of risk that people expose themselves to.

I can think of about 5 times when I have personally been at the crag when a serious fuck up has occurred. On four of those occasions the injured party was 21 or under. In two of those cases I suspect belayer error. There's a big bias there because I spent much of my time aged between 18 and 25 or so climbing with a University climbing club. The people in that club at the time were actually pretty technically competent when it came to placing gear and setting up abseils etc. It was more often the decision making that got them into hot water. For instance, I broke my leg (femur) at Froggatt in December 2008. A contributing factor was that I made a choice to try Stiff Cheese (E2) instead of Chequer's Crack (HVS). I chose the poorer, harder route in part because we had a chart up in the living room of 20 Welton Mount that was tracking how many onsight E points we'd each ticked that year... I popped a couple of microwires in, blind, gave them a tug and then threw/dynoed for what looked like a good ledge but was actually a sloping shelf. I remember feeling the rope pull the wires out and thinking "uh oh". I was OK, but in retrospect that was an enormously cavalier thing to do. There may have been belayer error there (standing too far back) but ultimately it was my call whether to try and make the move or not and I didn't think twice. Had I been unlucky I could have punctured the femoral artery and then I'd definitely have been dead. Parent's lives in tatters, no marriage, no daughter, no more climbing, no more whatever else I've got to look forward to in the next 50 odd years. But when I went climbing then I hadn't really thought about how terrible that would be, to really appreciate the magnitude of the consequence of a big fuck-up. I think most people shut that out most of the time to be honest. If you thought about it too much you'd never leave the house, let alone go climbing, and what sort of life would that be?

[tomtom]

I'm sure it says something that almost all of us felt that we pushed our luck in our younger years, and that a combination of naivety, youth and peer pressure is potentially dangerous. And yet, examples of young lads actually coming to serious harm is, thankfully, rare.

To sort of build on Matts point - at the teenage years when you feel you are capable of almost anything it can lead to all sorts of strife. Whether that be soloing up something daft, drinking too much, taking too many pills, driving or being driven too fast.... and it’s men and women who both do this (wills quote mentions Lads - probably unintentionally).

If it’s riding a skateboard fast down a hill when you’re 13, downing a line of tequilas when 16 or just missing those wet drain covers when scraping the pegs on your motorbike... you’re completely in control - until you are not.

[teestub]

I can think of about 5 times when I have personally been at the crag when a serious fuck up has occurred.

Not to mention the countless near misses that go along with these, your successful solo of Birds Nest above more than the Cheetham approved number of mats being a prime example!

[Will Hunt]

I can think of about 5 times when I have personally been at the crag when a serious fuck up has occurred.

Not to mention the countless near misses that go along with these, your successful solo of Birds Nest above more than the Cheetham approved number of mats being a prime example!

I was wondering when you might recount this! 

[user deactivated]

Any injuries sustained deep foam soloing don’t count as going climbing lads

[user deactivated]

Not to mention pads tied off to gear on the rock face ffs

[Fiend]

You're worse than me FFS.

Didn't Jordan do that on an onsight of Dangerous Crocodile or something??

[teestub]

I was wondering when you might recount this! 

I thought you might be about to, totally forgetting that you’d actually spannered yourself!

[user deactivated]

You're worse than me FFS.

Didn't Jordan do that on an onsight of Dangerous Crocodile or something??

Aye, no disrespect to Jordan who is of course up there with the most accomplished grit meisters. But that looked to be more V7 than e7. Probably would have been better to have the rope running through the pad gear though and just hop off onto the mats

[Fultonius]

I think the closest I've had to really fucking up was climbing a big route above Grindelwald, late on in the second day we were working our way up 70 degree ice, trying to find the exit ramps up and left to the ridge line. We were moving together, putting the odd ice screw in between us. I was out front. Went to move leftwards up an icy ramp when my foot skittered on thin ice, which sheared off under my foot. Both my axes suddenly felt much less secure than they had a few moments before. While screaming to Graham "make yourself saaaafffeeeee" (which, in hindinsight would probably have done fuckall if I'd take a half rope length ride onto a single ice screw) I tried to reset my right axe, my left axe felt like it was working its way out.

5 years ago. I still feel quite anxious thinking about it now.

[SA Chris]

Didn't you and AI do something on Meggy that was collapsing as you climbed it?

Closest I've come is going off route on a winter climb in Glencoe, and scratching my way up a verglassed slab rather than abbing offf and finding the right way in fading light. I think it would have been injury rather than death, although a big clattering fall onto a snowy slope with winter tools would never be pretty. 

[duncan]

I've thought often about this and have come to the conclusion that a teenage boy's first few years of onsight trad climbing is a spectacularly dangerous time, during which the new climber is generally spectacularly unaware of the full gamut of risks they face.

This. Testosterone, ego, confidence of youth, the desire to impress a new social group, all combining into a fucking dangerous cocktail.

Certainly the case with me. Freely admit to not having a fucking clue for first 2 years or so. Desire to climb something totally outweighed any notion of safety.  Couple of days out I was very lucky to make it home from.

Only two years?! At least 6 for me, I still had delusions of control approaching 25. 

Grim.

I think some activities are much more risky than they appear and some much less. Climbing is probably the latter and motorised transport almost certainly the former.

Fortunately my Dad was an ex-biker who recognised his fortune in surviving 30s London's wooden cobbled streets and agreed to pay for car driving lessons if I promised not to get a motorbike. It's probably still true the long hours of driving too and from the crag represent some of the riskier things I do.

[petejh]

Bikes, wars, fights, climbs, cars and other 'stuff'.. I definitely should be dead but I'm glad I've experienced it all. Living a life as risk-free as possible would be no life worth living.

[Offwidth]

In such discussions it's best to look at what actually kills or seriously injures experienced climbers. For Yosemite (a place with much lower objective risks than big alpine routes), the results are surprising and as such Dills work is well worth digesting.

"80% of the fatalities and many injuries, were easily preventable. In case after case, ignorance, a casual attitude, and/or some form of distraction proved to be the most dangerous aspects of the sport."

https://www.friendsofyosar.org/climbing