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EU Referendum (Read 279421 times)

DAVETHOMAS90

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#900 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 03:42:34 pm
I think I'll be voting LD.

I've always thought that social change - very simply, looking at ways for people to feel more supported and included in society, more able to be creative, involved in local projects, more connected etc etc - might lead to people feeling they just need less "stuff" - is more likely to lead to the sorts of changes in behaviour that we're going to need, if we're going to be able to better protect the environment.

On a separate note, Magid Magid (Green) has been a great Mayor for Sheffield, and yet has faced racist abuse recently, as he approaches the end of his time as Lord Mayor.

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#901 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 04:05:33 pm




These tables are from Gina Miller's site - https://www.remainunited.org/.

Worth saying that the analysis treats the Labour Party as a pro-Brexit party. They'll re-run the tactical voting analysis "should Labour clearly state it backs remaining in the EU or backs a confirmatory vote which includes an option to remain. Remain United will be rerunning this research and publishing the results on the 21st May. The research will include specific Labour related questions."

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#902 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 04:40:48 pm
I'm instinctively very suspect about the Gina Miller analysis. If you live in Wales or Scotland then it tells you to vote for a nationalist party. A friend has been quite vocal on Facebook about his unwillingness to lend support to Plaid - citing the nazi-sympathetic tendancies of their founder. If you live in England it is no more subtle than telling you to vote for Lib Dem if you support Remain. The gains for doing so are tiny (based on a very unlikely amount of tactical voting. 50% of remain voters all vote the same way? Really?!) and most affect Labour - who now seem to be tiptoeing around the notion of being a party that Remain voters can support. I might very well vote Lib Dem anyway, but is it not just more important to back a party that explicitly supports Remain? Proportional Representation will pick up the rest?

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#903 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 05:27:21 pm
I'm instinctively very suspect about the Gina Miller analysis.
Me too. I'm guessing it uses data from recent polls and the council elections, but in the last EU elections, the Greens got more votes than Lib Dems in Yorkshire & Humber, see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000003 (click the 'Results' tab).

mark20

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#904 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 05:41:31 pm
Anyway, voting for a party purely on their stance on Brexit 'to send a message' seems a bit daft. I'd rather vote for the party whose manifesto best represents me when they are taking their seat in EU meetings/votes

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#905 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 06:49:16 pm
I became a full paid up Green Party member last month.  First time I've ever belonged to a political party and thought long and hard about it.  It requires confronting some personal conflicts in terms of what I do for work, but I figured it was best to confront and negotiate those dilemmas rather than sitting on a fence.  I'll be voting Green.

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#906 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 08:57:07 pm
I'm instinctively very suspect about the Gina Miller analysis.
Me too. I'm guessing it uses data from recent polls and the council elections, but in the last EU elections, the Greens got more votes than Lib Dems in Yorkshire & Humber, see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000003 (click the 'Results' tab).
Worth noting that there hasn’t yet been a proper poll from Yorkshire/Humber that would clarify who among LibDem or Greens are most likely to win a seat. Greens were ahead of LibDems in 2014 but both fell short.

D'Hondt voting system explainer -

Teaboy

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#907 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 09:22:32 pm
Aren't there multiple seats per region so even if the vote is split you could still return one of each (or am I being too optimistic and the thinking is that there will be a max of only one Remain MEP per region?)

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#908 Re: EU Referendum
May 13, 2019, 11:13:07 pm
Labour - who now seem to be tiptoeing around the notion of being a party that Remain voters can support. I might very well vote Lib Dem anyway, but is it not just more important to back a party that explicitly supports Remain?

Will I have to disagree with your take on Labour's position. While it is fronted by the hard left, it is clearly a Brexit party which wants to cultivate a younger vote by pretending it might not be at some point. In many ways I think they're being more duplicitous than anyone else.

I respect people like Starmer, Watson etc who seem to be trying but Corbyn, Murray, MacDonald, Abbot aren't listening they just want the current government to leave, take the flack and then slide in on a GE.

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#909 Re: EU Referendum
May 14, 2019, 11:24:06 am
Interesting counter-argument to the Gina Miller analysis, from someone who built a 2017 tactical voting site:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/13/why-i-wont-be-advising-people-to-vote-tactically-in-the-european-elections

She's not arguing that people should vote in a totally non-tactical way (for example, she suggest that you limit your choices to parties big enough to have a shot at getting a seat), but that it's all too complicated and unpredictable to make clear-cut tactical voting recommendations, and that the priority is getting people out to vote.

I think both Miller's argument and the counter-argument are worth considering.

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#910 Re: EU Referendum
May 14, 2019, 11:45:24 am
Labour - who now seem to be tiptoeing around the notion of being a party that Remain voters can support. I might very well vote Lib Dem anyway, but is it not just more important to back a party that explicitly supports Remain?

Will I have to disagree with your take on Labour's position. While it is fronted by the hard left, it is clearly a Brexit party which wants to cultivate a younger vote by pretending it might not be at some point. In many ways I think they're being more duplicitous than anyone else.

I respect people like Starmer, Watson etc who seem to be trying but Corbyn, Murray, MacDonald, Abbot aren't listening they just want the current government to leave, take the flack and then slide in on a GE.

I generally agree with your analysis there, Toby. My comment about tiptoeing was made after hearing Watson talking on the Today programme about their policy line being to back a deal on the basis that it has to go before the public first in a "confirmatory vote", which is a position that I think I can support. I'm sceptical about whether Remain could win another referendum, but think we have to try since it is the only tenable way back from Leave. Especially if No Deal isn't on the cards.

I tuned into the news yesterday evening eagerly awaiting an interview with Corbyn where he clearly stated that Watson's interview was representative of party policy but there was nada, so I can only assume that Corbyn hasn't budged.

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#911 Re: EU Referendum
May 14, 2019, 08:55:22 pm
On a separate note, Magid Magid (Green) has been a great Mayor for Sheffield, and yet has faced racist abuse recently, as he approaches the end of his time as Lord Mayor.

He has been getting racist abuse as well as probably just plain abuse since he became Lord Mayor.

I have been a Labour party member since the 2010 election result but will be voting for Magid in the Euro elections as it is about the person. Likewise I will vote for Louise Haigh for MP (almost certainly) irrespective of what Labour are doing nationally.

I have long had the matra ABC, Anyone But Conservative, but maybe that needs extending to ABC/UKIP/Brexit/Change.

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#912 Re: EU Referendum
May 14, 2019, 09:32:41 pm
I thought you voted party rather than person in the EU elections, as some parties field multiple candidates but the voting system runs on number of votes received by party?

mark20

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#913 Re: EU Referendum
May 14, 2019, 09:40:13 pm
The candidates are listed in order, Magid is the Greens No 1

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#914 Re: EU Referendum
May 18, 2019, 08:25:04 am
I’m tossing up my eu election choices...

As a remain supporting mostly labour voter - I want my vote to show Labour that they should get off the fence and go remain etc...

So this means either green or libdem. I suspect though that a high Lib Dem vote is more likely to shake Labour up more than a high green vote so erring Lib Dem way.

Nauseously we received a Yaxley-Lennon flier through the door here....

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#915 Re: EU Referendum
May 18, 2019, 09:03:36 am
"If you believe that Britain’s destiny is to live and work with our neighbours, rather than to be an outpost of xenophobic Trumpism, a closed island whose national emblem will be the grinning, gurning face of Nigel Farage, then you have several good choices. But, sad to say, this time Labour is not one of them."

Remain voters are left with no choice but to ignore Labour next week

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/17/remain-voters-ignore-labour-change-uk-lib-dems-greens?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Will Hunt

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#916 Re: EU Referendum
May 18, 2019, 09:51:47 am
I'm posting my postal vote for Green today.

tomtom

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#917 Re: EU Referendum
May 18, 2019, 10:59:51 am
I'm posting my postal vote for Green today.

Is a double posting like a double negative? ;)

mrjonathanr

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#918 Re: EU Referendum
May 18, 2019, 08:37:45 pm
Ivan Rogers is plugging his new book ‘9 lessons in Brexit’  giving a talk on June 20 in Bramhall, for those who live near Stockport. You can book by emailing simplybooks.info. £10.

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#919 Re: EU Referendum
May 18, 2019, 11:29:02 pm
I’m tossing up my eu election choices...
As a remain supporting mostly labour voter - I want my vote to show Labour that they should get off the fence and go remain etc...
So this means either green or libdem. I suspect though that a high Lib Dem vote is more likely to shake Labour up more than a high green vote so erring Lib Dem way.
Tomtom,  I admire your optimism about Labour. The only thing that would make them  'go remain ' is the  sudden death of all of their most powerful  front line politicians and the associated union leaders and hard left wing behind momentum.  Perhaps  a series of electoral catastrophes for them might change things,  but even that's a stretch.  Perhaps about as likely as imagining a Conservative party without bickering about Europe.

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#920 Re: EU Referendum
May 19, 2019, 08:29:35 am
Just read an article in the Sunday Times by Michael Hesteltine, saying that he's voting lib dem...

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#921 Re: EU Referendum
May 19, 2019, 08:45:26 am
Just read an article in the Sunday Times by Michael Hesteltine, saying that he's voting lib dem...

Tarzan changed his stripes...

Also grianiad article (or maybe Indy) saying that labours position has nuetralised LibDems toxicity from co-alition / austerity time.

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#922 Re: EU Referendum
May 19, 2019, 09:35:49 am
The Guardian is starting to lean heavily towards supporting the LibDems, even editorially. At least, it would be harder for the uninitiated, reading the paper for the first time, to unequivocally deem it pro-Labour. Certainly not the case 12 months ago.
I’ve noticed a creeping increase in pro LibDem opinion pieces and a hardening editorial cant against current Labour leadership, which seems to now be verging on outright condemnation.

Personally, I’m sick of the extremities of our system and the way the divisions have increased to the point that we no longer function as a nation. The lack of compromise and political navel gazing, has meant the most pressing issues of our global and national realities have been ignored, in favour of silly political side shows and trying to twist the narrative to fit silly 19th/Early 20th century doctrines.

Populations do not conform to either Neo-Liberalism, nor pure Socialism; but the loudest voices are always the zealots and that drives party policy. Meanwhile, the vast middle ground (with other, to them more important, things on their minds) is left with no choice but to pick that which they see as the lesser of two evils. Pick an extreme, or waste your franchise and then, somehow, not realise you just lost your franchise anyway.

I would love to see a more balanced, realistic, more representative government in this country, but as long as we all keeping choosing sides/teams/tribes that’s never going to happen.

So, even though FPTP hampers such expression of the true spectrum that is political and social desires or beliefs, we could, if only we had the courage, choose and different path. It merely takes those of reasonable disposition to take a stand against the extremists and  pull the rug from under the domineering Red/Blue juggernauts that have dragged us into this shit.

That could be Green or Orange, in fact it could be Sky-Blue-Pink for all I care, I just wish people would wake up.

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#923 Re: EU Referendum
May 19, 2019, 01:58:00 pm
As a remain supporting mostly labour voter - I want my vote to show Labour that they should get off the fence and go remain etc...

So this means either green or libdem. I suspect though that a high Lib Dem vote is more likely to shake Labour up more than a high green vote so erring Lib Dem way.


For me though it's not just about  Brexit. The European parliament will influence our lives for many years Brexit or no Brexit. At a time of genuine ecological crisis with the right on the rise everywhere I need to know that those I'm voting for will be effective. Across much of Europe the old parties of governance are losing support and the effective opposition to the right is now the Greens. On taking their seat a Green MEP will therefore have a like-minded group to join to oppose the righ-wing nutters. Can the same be said of the LDs? Will they find  such allies and if so where?

My conceren is that thay could be, at best ,innefectual  or worse counterproductive given that they have recent form for supporting a (fiscally) extreme-right govt here.

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#924 Re: EU Referendum
May 19, 2019, 04:26:21 pm
Great comments from OMM above - especially about tribalism in politics, and also, importantly, the potential to "waste your franchise".

I voted Green during the current round of local elections - in direct support of the individuals standing - Lib Dem before that.

I will be voting Lib Dem in the Euro MP elections. While there is very strong Green support in my local ward, this isn't reflected across the Yorkshire/Humber region as a whole. (Three councillors elected per ward, six MEPs per region.)

It was very easy to be deceived by support for the remain vote during the referendum, and it's worth remembering that what's marketed by party campaigners locally, may not (probably won't?) reflect levels of support across the region. Worth checking, if you're undecided.

Remaining in Europe is, in my view, the best way to strengthen support for the debate on things like the environment and human rights.

 

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