[tomtom]

On the Irish border issue - Can the Norway and Swiss border models not just be replicated - what am I missing here??
genuinely ignorant and not got time right now to go and research how they work.

Yes - but there is (apparently) still border infrastructure and some checks (despite it being mostly non stop)...

[tommytwotone]

They know that the economy will tank as reality sets in

There is a significant downturn on the horizon, totally unconnected with Brexit or anything else, though that will exacerbate it.

To quote a mate of mine who knows about these things (and makes good money trading them), this one's going to make the crash of 2007/8 like a picnic.

 

[seankenny]

Never forget, with all but about 2 newspapers and with the Beeb onside, right wingers managed to shift the blame for the 2008 crash from deregulated financing onto Gordon Brown and gave austerity the shoo-in. If they can manage that, convincing us that the latest penury is socialism's rather than nationalism's fault will be absolute piss.

To be fair, Corbyn is quite capable of making a right fuck up on his own. His response to the referendum result? Immediately trigger Article 50. A senior politician with this level of insight and understanding (not to mention grandstanding or even grandadstanding) - it's a fucking thrilling prospect.

[Oldmanmatt]

On the Irish border issue - Can the Norway and Swiss border models not just be replicated - what am I missing here??
genuinely ignorant and not got time right now to go and research how they work.

Yes - but there is (apparently) still border infrastructure and some checks (despite it being mostly non stop)...

I actually lived on the border crossing in Como. The bathroom window of my apartment opened into Switzerland. So squeezed between the train tracks and the road.
There were frequent “crack downs”, when full checks would be instituted and the queues went halfway around the lake. Other days,my closest cafe was in Swiss and I could stroll throughthe board without even a glimpse of a uniform.
Much harder with a sea border and such hardly “respects the referendum” or similar crap.

[galpinos]

On the Irish border issue - Can the Norway and Swiss border models not just be replicated - what am I missing here??
genuinely ignorant and not got time right now to go and research how they work.

The BBC did an article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44054594

[Oldmanmatt]

The Norway border and agreement respects freedom of movement for all EU citizens, if that were replicated in NI, then the same must be allowed at every other UK border. Absolutely nothing, except a hard border (harder than the Swiss) “takes back control”. The only way to avoid a hard border, is to accept freedom of movement. An end to Freedom of movement seems to be the heart of the Brexiteer’s cause, the main selling point of the whole shitshow. So we need a hard border, or it’s pointless.
But we cannot have a hard border in NI.
But we have to have one.

But we cannot.

But we must.

But....

Zxaffyytdscghjjkk,km,iugddruii

Error 404, logic not found.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/31/ireland-hard-border-brexit-backstop-good-friday-agreement?CMP=fb_gu

[petejh]

I'm sorry I don't quite get what you're saying. You think the EU will be happy to just drop it and ride to the rescue anyway?

No, that isn't what I'm saying.

I asked a fairly simple question which I hoped would led people to consider how long we'll be in the default 'worst case' trade agreement brought about on March 29th by a no deal. Nobody has attempted to give their answer. Presumably everyone thinks we'll be in the same set-up for evermore

Don't have time for any more, I'm off to Norway!

[Will Hunt]

So assuming we leave with no deal on 29th March (which I don't assume is the most probable btw),  how long do people think it will take to come to some form of limited agreement on trade - it could be interim/temporary/emergency etc. to keep EU countries able to supply us/receive our goods at better than WTO tariffs, and us able to purchase from/send goods to the EU at better than WTO -  on the following goods and services:
Medical supplies
Vegetables
Car parts & other industrial goods
Financial services
Air traffic
2L coke and donner meat

I'm not talking about 'a trade deal with the EU'. I'm talking about both sides making provisions for trading with a neighbour who they already have a market, supply chains, common standards and relationships in place. Neither will want to just sit there, staring at each other across the channel, doing nothing. 

I'm guessing:
2 - 5 days
2 weeks
3 weeks
1 month
Immediately
Will become black market items

Was it this question? Answer: I don't know, because I'm not an expert on trade regulations. Based on what has been said about WTO tariff equality rules, if we agree reduced tariffs on essential goods, don't those tariffs have to apply to everybody? Would the eu be obliged to offer those tariffs to others?
If you're wondering about whether the EU will abet the UK in bending or breaking the law to assist an emergency situation, I wouldn't count on it. As I said earlier, these are legal bodies that enforce and enact the law. They could be held to judicial review by all sorts of interested parties.
Doesn't sound like Taking Back Control.

[Oldmanmatt]

So assuming we leave with no deal on 29th March (which I don't assume is the most probable btw),  how long do people think it will take to come to some form of limited agreement on trade - it could be interim/temporary/emergency etc. to keep EU countries able to supply us/receive our goods at better than WTO tariffs, and us able to purchase from/send goods to the EU at better than WTO -  on the following goods and services:
Medical supplies
Vegetables
Car parts & other industrial goods
Financial services
Air traffic
2L coke and donner meat

I'm not talking about 'a trade deal with the EU'. I'm talking about both sides making provisions for trading with a neighbour who they already have a market, supply chains, common standards and relationships in place. Neither will want to just sit there, staring at each other across the channel, doing nothing. 

I'm guessing:
2 - 5 days
2 weeks
3 weeks
1 month
Immediately
Will become black market items

Was it this question? Answer: I don't know, because I'm not an expert on trade regulations. Based on what has been said about WTO tariff equality rules, if we agree reduced tariffs on essential goods, don't those tariffs have to apply to everybody? Would the eu be obliged to offer those tariffs to others?
If you're wondering about whether the EU will abet the UK in bending or breaking the law to assist an emergency situation, I wouldn't count on it. As I said earlier, these are legal bodies that enforce and enact the law. They could be held to judicial review by all sorts of interested parties.
Doesn't sound like Taking Back Control.

But, haven’t you heard? They need us more than we need them.

[A Jooser]

So assuming we leave with no deal on 29th March...  how long do people think it will take to come to some form of limited agreement on trade - it could be interim/temporary/emergency etc...  on the following goods and services:
Medical supplies
Vegetables
Car parts & other industrial goods
Financial services
Air traffic
2L coke and donner meat...

I'm guessing:
2 - 5 days
2 weeks
3 weeks
1 month
Immediately
Will become black market items

It's a shame no one was willing to play along with you Pete; I'd have been interested to see how close they got. Although I can only comment on two of the above mentioned.

It's correct to say that if we leave with a 'no deal' on 29th March temporary measures to ensure continuation of Air traffic will kick in immediately. I can say this with some degree of confidence because the European Commission announced exactly that themselves on 19 December 2018

European Commission - Press release
Brexit: European Commission implements “no-deal” Contingency Action Plan in specific sectors
Brussels, 19 December 2018 http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

Transport

The Commission has today adopted two measures that will avoid full interruption of air traffic between the EU and the UK in the event of no deal...

* A proposal for a Regulation to ensure temporarily (for 12 months) the provision of certain air services between the UK and the EU.
* A proposal for a Regulation to extend temporarily (for 9 months) the validity of certain aviation safety licences.

Regarding financial services I think you were a little pessimistic with your guess of 1 month - again immediately would have been the right answer, at least as far as derivative clearing is concerned. This was also announced in the same EU Commission Press Release. This one's a good story so I'll leave it till a little later to avoid too many long posts...

[A Jooser]

So Pete thought it would take one month following a 'no deal' Brexit for some form of interim/temporary measures to be established to ensure trade in financial services, but it seems they're already in place and will be automatic if the EU Commission's 19 December 2018 Press Release is anything to go by. It states...

Financial services

After a thorough examination of the risks linked to a no deal scenario in the financial sector, the Commission has found that only a limited number of contingency measures is necessary to safeguard financial stability in the EU27.

The Commission has therefore adopted today the following acts:

* A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 12 months to ensure that there will be no immediate disruption in the central clearing of derivatives.

* A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 24 months to ensure that there will be no disruption in central depositaries services for EU operators currently using UK operators.

* Two Delegated Regulations facilitating novation, for a fixed period of 12 months, of certain over-the-counter derivatives contracts, where a contract is transferred from a UK to an EU27 counterparty.

Now I'll admit I don't know the first thing about derivatives clearing. But I have paid enough attention over the past few months to realise it is a major necessity for EU-based client institutions to have access to London's derivatives swaps which provide the financial backing for their trades. This much is evidenced by the above which shows that even in a 'no deal' situation the EU Commission still thinks it essential for EU operators to be able to use UK clearing houses for up to 2 years after Brexit.

There was some coverage of the issue last year in the financial press but the articles are behind paywalls so I can't link them. But, if I recall correctly, the crux of the matter was if EU-based financial institutions couldn't have their clearing done in London they'd be forced to take their business to New York or the Asian cities because none of the continental finance centres could handle it. This presented a problem because a three-month notice period is required by London's clearing houses before the closure or transfer of an account and their EU clients really had nowhere else to go. This affected £45 trillion pounds worth of contracts. Again it's paywalled, but The Telegraph in its Business section reported on 19 December 2018, see here, that it was only the 11th hour announcement from Brussels that saved the situation.

The EU will only move at the last minute it seems.

When you look at the current financial state of the EU countries, particularly Italy at the moment, it is clear that loans need to come from somewhere and the German banks can't or won't keep on lending. I'd suggest that London provides the liquidity which helps keep the European banking system afloat and struggling banks and businesses on the continent need access to London's money markets.

It's worth a look at the Global Financial Centres Index to see where London sits in the list. Ask yourselves: how many EU cities are in the top 10?

[teestub]

I guess there’’d be nothing to stop the banks leaving London if it suits them following a no deal, unless the govt are going to bend over even further for them to keep them incentivised to stay. The forecast downturn might be a good excuse for them to up sticks.

[Oldmanmatt]

Whilst London is certainly a premier financial centre, why does anyone assume it will remain so? The City has been rather loud in it’s condemnation of current affairs. Meanwhile  the FT (paywalled) the Times (paywalled) and others report a fleeing of assets and capital to other EU cities. Here’s one of many summaries of such from Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/while-u-k-dithers-over-brexit-finance-outflows-pick-up-speed

The key word in all of Jooser’s post is “temporary “. Nobody wants this to all go south, it’s difficult and expensive to change things. But they will. Plenty of EU cities will be vying for a chance to steal London’s crown, why does anyone assume it is unassailable.

I suspect the “temporary” measures will be more of a rearguard action to allow an orderly retreat, than a foundation for a reconstruction on site.

[SamT]

Hmm, two struggling countries in Europe at the moment,  Greece and Italy.

I mean, come on, where have Rome or Athens ever been on the world stage.

Money is liquid, it'll flow and my fear is its gonna start flowing away from London, sooner and faster than people realise.

[galpinos]

So assuming we leave with no deal on 29th March (which I don't assume is the most probable btw),  how long do people think it will take to come to some form of limited agreement on trade - it could be interim/temporary/emergency etc. to keep EU countries able to supply us/receive our goods at better than WTO tariffs, and us able to purchase from/send goods to the EU at better than WTO -  on the following goods and services:
Medical supplies
Vegetables
Car parts & other industrial goods
Financial services
Air traffic
2L coke and donner meat

I'm not talking about 'a trade deal with the EU'. I'm talking about both sides making provisions for trading with a neighbour who they already have a market, supply chains, common standards and relationships in place. Neither will want to just sit there, staring at each other across the channel, doing nothing. 

I'm guessing:
2 - 5 days
2 weeks
3 weeks
1 month
Immediately
Will become black market items

Pete, on the vegetables/food my "informed" opinion is influenced by a reasonably senior figure in a major UK supermarket who was telling me that they are very worried about fresh goods, the timing of Brexit (we will be producing pretty much no fresh fruit and veg) and the fact it seems pretty low on the government priority list means they can't see a short term fix being implemented in the case of a no deal.

Air traffic and finance is sorted (well, finance is partially sorted as a stop gap), medical supplies is next. Industry and the associated JIT deliveries seem to be higher up the priority list than food so we'll just have to see.

One hopes that if a no deal scenario becomes the option we are taking things will be done asap but I guess the EU have to wait until the 11th hr in order to make it look as unattractive an option as possible.

[sdm]

So assuming we leave with no deal on 29th March (which I don't assume is the most probable btw),  how long do people think it will take to come to some form of limited agreement on trade - it could be interim/temporary/emergency etc. to keep EU countries able to supply us/receive our goods at better than WTO tariffs, and us able to purchase from/send goods to the EU at better than WTO -  on the following goods and services:
Medical supplies
Vegetables
Car parts & other industrial goods
Financial services
Air traffic
2L coke and donner meat

I'm not talking about 'a trade deal with the EU'. I'm talking about both sides making provisions for trading with a neighbour who they already have a market, supply chains, common standards and relationships in place. Neither will want to just sit there, staring at each other across the channel, doing nothing. 

I'm guessing:
2 - 5 days
2 weeks
3 weeks
1 month
Immediately
Will become black market items

Pete, on the vegetables/food my "informed" opinion is influenced by a reasonably senior figure in a major UK supermarket who was telling me that they are very worried about fresh goods, the timing of Brexit (we will be producing pretty much no fresh fruit and veg) and the fact it seems pretty low on the government priority list means they can't see a short term fix being implemented in the case of a no deal.

They aren't alone. But what would the chief executives of Asda, Sainsburys, M&S, Lidl, Waitrose, The Co-op and the British Retail Consortium know about the just in time supply chain for fresh food?

https://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.vox-cdn.com%2Fthumbor%2FhGDj0spSeEnIwRIuPLsTtJ883wQ%3D%2F0x0%3A848x1200%2F1200x0%2Ffilters%3Afocal(0x0%3A848x1200)%3Ano_upscale()%2Fcdn.vox-cdn.com%2Fuploads%2Fchorus_asset%2Ffile%2F13721847%2FDyAHvSlXQAEg9gE.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Flondon.eater.com%2F2019%2F1%2F29%2F18201855%2Fno-deal-brexit-food-shortages-asda-sainsburys-mcdonalds&tbnid=rAA1S_22v9faKM&vet=1&docid=5XDl8piWwnFbZM&w=848&h=1200

https://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fi2-prod.mirror.co.uk%2Fincoming%2Farticle13918390.ece%2FALTERNATES%2Fs615b%2F0_DyAHvSbW0AEOLAr.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mirror.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fkfc-could-run-out-food-13918415&tbnid=9qLxxFDg9NqiXM&vet=1&docid=f7B6dPpB0I4uCM&w=615&h=870

[Johnny Brown]

It's worth a look at the Global Financial Centres Index to see where London sits in the list. Ask yourselves: how many EU cities are in the top 10?

Yes pop-pickers, let's have a look at this week's Top of the GFCs! In at No.1 it's New York! Last year's No.1, London is down 1 to No.2! Meanwhile this years' fastest climbers are Zurich, Frankfurt and Madrid, racing up the charts by 7, 10 and 12 places respectively!

We don't need to tumble down the charts; continuing the current trend will be plenty for a prolonged recession.

[Will Hunt]

Will - we could have negotiated our exit, a trade deal, the divorce bill. The whole fucking lot before triggering A50. That was done to appease the brexit Tory MP’s... and ultimately handicapped the whole process.

On Nick Robinson's podcast David Milliband- who was among the group who drafted A50 said that it was drafted specifically to be used with all exit agreements in place.

Sorry to go back a few pages but this was bugging me and I couldn't put my finger on why. I've just checked and it was the EU who refused to have any talks before article 50 was triggered.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/03/eu-commission-still-refuses-uk-talks-before-article-50-triggered

Considering what Miliband said (more on this later), its clear that brinksmanship is a part of the game. The UK said it was ready to leave and could we work some stuff out before lighting the blue touch paper, and the EU responded by double daring the UK to get it lit. It's an argument normally reserved for swivel-eyed Brexits, but it's not a quantum leap to then see the EU as purposefully creating a set of circumstances which make it a difficult as possible to leave, even when "the people" have made up their minds to do so.

As for Miliband and any other A50 legislaters, if what he says is true, I've lost a good deal of respect for them. For a legislater to have an intention for an article and to completely fail to make provision for it in statute is grossly incompetent.

[tomtom]

Anyone started stockpiling yet (I’m being serious)?

[shark]

Anyone started stockpiling yet (I’m being serious)?

I did when Lehman's went down. Not this time

[Oldmanmatt]

Anyone started stockpiling yet (I’m being serious)?

Did our weekly shop this evening. First time in many years I wandered down the “tinned” and “dried” asile and actually looked at something other than Baked Beans. Didn’t buy anything, but...

[GraemeA]

Anyone started stockpiling yet (I’m being serious)?

I did when Lehman's went down. Not this time

I have been stockpiling fine wine since 2002, in the expectation that I might want to drink some at the drop of a hat 

I always find Lehman's goes down very well https://www.waitrosecellar.com/shiraz-or-syrah/peter-lehmann-stonewell-shiraz?gclid=Cj0KCQiA-c_iBRChARIsAGCOpB05Y_PeI__jag0lN5Gvt9JMlRkj4f0zkU01vN4wU8ymKVsB6Uab9j8aAtGLEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

[shark]

 

[Will Hunt]

In other news, we got a letter through the door today from our MP, serial cunt Philip Davies, inviting us to a meeting to ask questions about Brexit. It's Friday the 15th of this month if anyone wants to go. I'd love to go and give some verbal, but I'd expect to be thoroughly out debated by a politician who has lived and breathed politics for a good while.

[tomtom]

First of all tell him that your not tall - then ask him for a list of what achievements he’s done as an MP. Then tell him that you’ve done all of that and found it easy. 😃